Image Credit: NSIDC
WUWT Regular “Just The Facts”
As you can see from the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent With Anomaly map above, there are currently two large fingers of anomalous Sea Ice protruding out in the Weddell Sea. This is the same Weddell Sea that in 2012 it was claimed that;
“Warm ocean currents are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS) which will impact global sea level rise. Climate change is waking up the sleeping giant of Antarctica.
Significant scientific research has been published in recent weeks on the impact of global warming on changing wind patterns and southern ocean currents and the flow-on impact on Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. The most recent studies reveal the potential instability of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area. But the real questions to be asked concern the long term stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and how rapidly it could collapse raising global sea levels by up to 6 metres.” Climate Citizen
So there are no apparent signs of the “warm ocean currents” that “are projected to melt the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea area of Antarctica opening instabilities in the West Antarctic Ice sheet”. If fact those fingers still look reasonably concentrated;
and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or Greater has remained above two Standard Deviations of the 1981 – 2010 average for the entire melt season:
Additionally, Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly has been above the 1979 – 2008 Average for the last two years:
Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly is in the midst of its third large spike since 2007;
and there is a clear trend towards larger Southern Sea Ice Area Minimums:
The result is Global Sea Ice Area had its highest maximum since 2006 and remained stubbornly average for the entirety of 2013:
However, in terms of the large fingers of Sea Ice protruding into the Weddell Sea;
I think they may be a sign from Antarctica telling us that we’ve beat global warming, or at least that the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea is safe from collapse for another year… What do you think?
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“Anyone still interested in investing in the Arctic?”
Lots of natural resources in the Arctic, well worth investing in.
If I knew AGW was a crock, I’d lay claim to the Arctic before anyone else by building the biggest, baddest nuclear icebreaker the world has seen, capable of breaking through the ice year round.
Ok, believe it or not, I’m privy to some of those top secret NSA files that Snowden skipped town with; most of which concern the various sex … er, security breeches of the administration’s political opponents. I mean, the U.S.’s opponents.
Anyway, the most globally cataclysmic file was an NSA intercept from … ready? … Extraterrestrials. No, it wasn’t the file leaked out of Iran (you didn’t know Snowden had been there did you?) that claimed the U.S. had collaborated with Hitler and extraterrestrials way back in the days. I, alone, know that one is made up; designed to make Snowden look like an idiot at a less than circumstantial and very opportune time for Iran.
Anyway, I’m getting sidetracked (as if you didn’t notice). Anyway, the major, and most important file concerns the utter destruction of the entire planet Earth, its ecosystem, biosphere, atmosphere, everything, from … yes, Global Warming! Now, Obama did not fail to mention Climate Change on the campaign trail nor initiate work on it till after the 2012 elections for mere political purposes. No, I mean, the guy would face such a threat immediately; he just didn’t know about the seriousness till that NSA intercept came afterwards. And then, voila, Snowden skips out with that most important file in the history of humanity. So, the extraterrestrials are trying to communicate directly to all of us and our climate scientists. They were the ones that made that ‘V’ in the Weddell Sea in Antarctica. It is a clear warning to Trenberth and, well, all of us that there still is heat and it’s hiding. What better place to plant that symbol than the growing ice of Antarctica? Think about that. And what does the ‘V’ tell us, you ask? It tells us where the heat is hiding. No, the heat didn’t do something stupid like breast stroke to the bottom of the ocean. Who’d believe that nonsense? No, the ‘V’ stands for Venus. Get it? The heat is hiding on the planet Venus. The extraterrestrials know this.
Phew, glad I got that off my chest. Now to relax and listen to some Ben Santer school videos.
It’s PACkMAN!
Leo Geiger says: January 19, 2014 at 11:50 am
Bob Tisdale – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
An additional fact for justthefacts: sea ice extent doesn’t have a simple direct relationship with ocean current temperatures. It is unwise to draw conclusions about the health of an ice shelf based only on the extent of sea ice around it.
See Pine Island glacier for just one example of signs of warm ocean currents impacting the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25729750
That’s not an additional “fact” that’s “using three state-of-the-art ice-flow models” to “show that Pine Island Glacier’s grounding line is probably engaged in an unstable 40 km retreat”, whatever that means:
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2094.html#access
Facts don’t come from “state-of-the-art ice-flow models”, they come from the observational evidence, e.g.:
Southern Sea Surface Temperature as been below average for the last 6 years:
[caption id="attachment_54067" align="alignnone" width="568"]
and Southern Polar Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly has had a negative trend and is average;
[caption id="attachment_54067" align="alignnone" width="568"]
Show us the “signs of warm ocean currents” you claim.
How many tons of extra sea ice are there in 1.2m sq km of Antarctic sea ice? The oceans contain about 74 trillion tons of CO2 that can be released either by freezing or evaporation. http://www.xylenepower.com/Carbon%20Dioxide.htm
The CO2 is not distributed evenly – it is more concentrated in the cold Southern Ocean than, for example, in the tropics. Ignoring that quibble, if the ice is on average 1/2 a metre thick then it has expelled at least
1.2 x 10^12 sq m x 0.5m x 55g per cu m /1000 = 3.3 x 10^10 kg of CO2 = 33m tons
When the oceans evaporated to create the 25m cubic km of ice on Antarctica the mass of CO2 expelled from the oceans was 1.375 x 10^15 kg which is 5/8ths of all the CO2 presently airborne.
I believe the EPA has judged CO2 to be a danger to public health. If the above-the-long-term-mean Antarctic Ocean ice persists, can I get carbon credits for initiating measures that will melt it again?
If I manage to melt Antarctica, at $5 per ton of CO2 absorbed, I would, with you as co-investors, be able to collect $6,875,000,000,000 in offsets. I would be willing to throw in melting the Greenland ice sheet for free under a ‘collateral benefit’ clause.
Chad Wozniak says:
January 19, 2014 at 11:30 am
More likely that the Drake Passage will ice over completely in coming winters,….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And if that happens does the water get pushed up the coast of South America and we get more La Ninas?
It certainly looks like South American winters are getting worse or at least not getting milder. From the Weather is not Climate Department:
Winter weather (and volcanoes) for Chile from Ice Age Now
Argentina: Ice Age Now
Bolivia: Ice Age Now
Peru Ice Age Now
Brazil Ice Age Now
What was that about Children not knowing what snow was?
Leo Geiger says:
January 19, 2014 at 11:50 am
An additional fact for justthefacts…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25729750
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You link to BBC, a KNOWN propaganda outfit? ROTFLMAO!
Leo Geiger says: @ur momisugly January 19, 2014 at 12:22 pm
..Then spend a few minutes finding papers covering the research that is the source of the article.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You brought it up YOU waste your time.
Leo Geiger says:
January 19, 2014 at 12:22 pm
Then spend a few minutes finding papers covering the research that is the source of the article.
======
Does your planet have an atmosphere?
You mean this one? GK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19576266
Hey, can we drag those two ice ears up to California and let them use the water when the ice melts in the southern California sun? Heck, there may be enough ice there so we can go back to “ice boxes” rather than refrigerators and save on electricity!
Please send money so I can study this matter.
Does somebody know the etymology of Pine Island Antarctica ? Did pine trees grow on its beach before the glacier eroded it ?
HenryP says:
January 19, 2014 at 12:19 pm
HenryP, about a year ago I noticed that Alaska is cooling. This is the very same place they used to call the canary on the coalmine of global warming. I don’t hear that very much nowadays.
PDO and Alaska cooling
http://www.livescience.com/25907-alaska-climate-pdo.html
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/
Next former canary – the Arctic??? Let’s wait and see.
Keep is simple then. Is the grounding line of Pine Island glacier retreating? No computer models needed to answer that. Is it retreating while Antarctic sea ice extent has grown?
Perhaps, then, there isn’t a simple relationship between sea ice extent and what an ice shelf does.
I would be interested in knowing the source you are using to declare that sea ice extent tracks deeper ocean temperatures (not surface temperatures) along the margins of Antarctica.
In the UK, two fingers with the back of the hand is the same as ‘giving the finger’ in US.
I don’t see a thumb or other fingers in the Weddel sea area, so I conclude the message is ‘up yours’.
In view of the British nature of the gesture it’s probably aimed at Guardian’s Antarctic Live “no milkshake’ brigade or failed ex-climate modeller Connelley who failed to model ocean currents in that area.
Maybe Gaia isn’t as “nice” as the Greenies think…
I’ve predicted (during the voyage of the Ship of Fools) that the cooler ocean and 1.2Mkm^2 extra ice will bring on more rapid freeze up. We won’t have to wait until Feb 22nd for this; how about 3 weeks from now?
It’s a white Rabbit. Now do a white Elephant. There looks like there’s ‘room’.
It seems Leo Geiger has volunteered to join Prof Turney’s next voyage down south to do “climate science”.
I bet he’s really looking forward to taking measurements of sea temperature to confirm his quoted model.
That will shut up those who just want to observe facts.
Maybe that was keeping it too simple…
Mass loss from ice shelves is primarily driven by basal melting from warm (relatively speaking) water, and to a lesser extent calving. That means basal melt rates (derived from changes in surface elevation) and calving rates would be better things to use to draw conclusions about the temperature of the deeper water (which is hard to measure directly) and the health of ice shelves.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6143/266
But apparently you believe simply looking at sea ice extent is all you need to do to declare “there are no apparent signs of the “warm ocean currents” “.
I don’t think that simple assertion has much factual support.
Chris Turney’s AAE “volunteer” spokesman, Alvin Stone, has a new story:
19 Jan: Eureka Alert Media Release from ALVIN STONE: Get used to heat waves: Extreme El Nino events to double
An international team of scientists from organisations including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSIRO, published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years,” said co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of CoECSS. ..
“The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Niño events has challenged scientists for more than 20 years,” said co-author Dr Mike McPhaden of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“This research is the first comprehensive examination of the issue to produce robust and convincing results,” said Dr McPhaden…
“During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru,” said lead author, CSIRO’s Dr Wenju Cai…
“For Australia, this could mean summer heat waves, like that recently experienced in the south-east of the country, could get an additional boost if they coincide with extreme El Ninos,” said co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS. …
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-01/uons-gut011714.php
20 Jan: SMH: Tom Arup: Major El Nino events likely to double in next century
The researchers used 20 climate models to project the impact on extreme El Nino frequency of global greenhouse emissions continuing at current high rates…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/major-el-nino-events-likely-to-double-in-next-century-20140119-312sy.html
Latitude says:
January 19, 2014 at 11:21 am map of northern ice
The chart does not show the interior lakes of North America – the U.S. Navy isn’t going there, I suppose. Still, Lake Erie is mostly covered in ice and the other lakes catching up. It is going to be cold in the entire area for the next few days.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/great_lakes.html
Leo Geiger says:
January 19, 2014 at 1:47 pm
Let it go Leo, for your own good – W. Ant and Pine Island are old news. If you haven’t been following, this has been a horrible year for the climate disaster consensus and you have unadvisedly wandered in here alone with stuff your folks would have told you to shut up about had you inquired. The last several years of record ice in the Antarctic, the voyage of the Ship of Fools who didn’t know this, IPCC going for lower climate sensitivity, the most resistant (Trenberth et al) finally embracing natural variability, Met Office predicting years of cooling… – another fact not widely trumpeted is Turney is a dendrochronologist, for goodness sake – whatever could be the sense of him leading a research expedition to Antarctica (unless he believed all the warming of the continent jazz had allowed a forest to grow). No one else amongst you guys is allowed to even mention the West Antarctic warming, Pine Island glacier and the like. They all hate Turney for even directing attention to Antarctica. You won’t be thanked by your mentors.
Leo Geiger’s NASA link says that a computer model and a change of baseline (from the new understanding of the ice depth) shows that more ice doesn’t disprove “warm ocean currents”
.
Some models can prove or disprove anything – they sow doubt, you see.
The links says:
So I guess he wants to go to Antarctica and actually measure the water temperature?
It is also “unwise to draw conclusions about the health of an ice shelf based only on” models. Well, that’s what the BBC article you linked to says:
Now ask yourself this: What did the climate models used by the IPCC project for Antarctica’s sea ice extent? That’s right, a decline. Observations are important and should not be ignored when evaluating the usefulness of the IPCC.
[This last article later mentions models which I am not interested in, just the observations.]