From the WUWT Solar Reference page, an X 1.2 event has occurred:
![Xray[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/xray1.gif)
From NASA Spaceweather:
Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet.
One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named “AR1944” yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington:
The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over.
Here is the latest SDO image:
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
This graphic from Tamitha Skov
More at the WUWT Solar Reference page
Annie forgiven. Latest Green news is that we won’t get much rain after hot weather. Well if there is a solar storm it would deflect galactic sub atomic particles from forming clouds. However, they are now saying we are returning to an El Nino episode. I am not that certain. They jump the gun always in bad predictions but I hope it pours here in NSW soon.
Those photons from the xray blasts I spoke of provided additional heating above baseline at the tropics, sending a rapid warm blast northward, creating a planetary wave induced SSW. The timing of the wave and SSW relative to the arctic vortex ramp-up should be determined for clarity.
The entire global warming fiasco boils down to one major misconception in my view: TSI cannot possibly register the entire the solar flux impulse from Earth-directed flares. Your lame insults mean nothing. I’ve been reading all about Dr. Svalgaard’s insistent view that TSI varies little with the solar cycle, and that it’s not a player in day-to-day anything. That’s about the quality of thinking Al Gore has when he says: “Sunspots – Bullshit.”
Well, it is sunspots, it is xray flares from sunspots that deliver that extra IR heat from photons at the tropics, it is the resultant CME fluence of protons and electrons from those flares that interact with our near-space environment electrically and magnetically, forcing wild swings in the jet stream. So it is the sun, even during the “small peak” of SC24, that forces weather patterns, and changes the climate from periods of days and beyond. Climate change does not cause climate change, the sun causes extreme weather events and climate change.
There is no CO2 downwelling IR (heat). That missing heat in climate models comes from xflare photon energy that is not picked up by GOES satellites or figured into TSI. No amount of browbeating on your part will ever change that.
It will always be solar and cosmic photons, protons, and electrons that provide the power, not CO2.
@ur momisugly Bob Weber — I take back that part about the “sweet spirit.”
Now, protect your family and home against the expected big solar storm is already possible!
Apple Store´s link of the free version: https://itunes.apple.com/app/solar-alert-lite-safety-system/id530994246?mt=8
Apple Store´s link of the standard version: https://itunes.apple.com/app/solar-alert-security-system/id513766293?ls=1&mt=8
Bob Weber says:
January 8, 2014 at 10:13 pm
That missing heat in climate models comes from xflare photon energy that is not picked up by GOES satellites or figured into TSI.
No, the photon energy of even the largest flares is minute compared to the regular output of the non-flaring sun.
Dr. Svalgaard, would you care to prove your point? I am prepared to prove mine. Deal? Janice are you being affected by that “electric weather effect”?
If the Earth rotates faster doesn’t that Vary the Strength of the Polar Vortex? Would minute changes be realized in the strength of the outer vortex rings?
Length of Day LOD from 1960 to 2011
Page 19 figure S1
http://www.liv.ac.uk/~holme/nature_sub.pdf
Still looks like a major effect on LOD at the same time the solar dipole began its declining phase.
The 1990’s may be that change in Interstellar wind that scientists are looking for. Or not………….
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 6:02 am
Dr. Svalgaard, would you care to prove your point?
Have done this several times, but you are a slow learner so here we go again. The biggest Xflare ever observed with modern instruments increased the Sun’s output of photon energy by 0.000267 of the regular output that we get all the time: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/Chree_Analysis_for_Flares
The Heliospheric Current Sheet Sector Boundary which AR9144 straddles is about to sweep over the Earth in the next day or so. At that time the solar wind speed will dip, but then in the days ahead reach a maximum. The density will peak at the boundary, and the magnetic field will increase for a couple of days or so just after the boundary. This is the standard signature of a sector boundary crossing. Here is what the average response [over a thousand boundaries] looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Sector-Boundaries.png
AR1944, of course…
lsvalgaard says:
January 9, 2014 at 6:58 am
The biggest Xflare ever observed with modern instruments increased the Sun’s output of photon energy by 0.000267 of the regular output that we get all the time: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/Chree_Analysis_for_Flares
Should perhaps add: for a few minutes only.
@lsvalgaard and @Bob weber
“Experts from the Institute of Space Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Institute of Physics of the Earth (RAS), and the Sechenov Moscow Medical Academy have established that the biggest danger emanates from the micro variations of the geomagnetic field, which coincide with the heartbeat. They occur in about half of all magnetic storms, and are most typical for a prelude to a storm with insignificant changes in the geomagnetic field (mostly affecting high altitudes), and for the recovery phase, when the geomagnetic field is coming back to normal.
Medical statistics for Moscow show that 70% of all micro variations, caused by geomagnetic disturbances, are accompanied by an abnormally high incidence of heart attacks (a growth of about 13%), and blood-strokes (7.5% growth). The low and extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields destabilize the heartbeat, leading to a sudden death or infarction. Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm.”
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Magnetic_Storms_Affect_Humans_As_Well_As_Telecommunications.html
Thank you for that LAH. You describe a “magnetic weather effect”, which complements the electric weather effect – they go together hand-in-glove for physical reasons that boil down to Maxwell’s equations for light – electromagnetic radiation [photons] and particle physics [protons and electrons].
Hang on to your hats people – this S3 storm is a biggie, and I and the only two people I’ve seen today, my lady and her son, are both clearly under its influence, as am I. I am aware, conscious and in control of my outward behavour, is spite of my inner feelings. This will pass. I told my lady last night my heart was beating exceptional hard – and I have a good solid heart with stable, good blood pressure.
I have simplified it down to “electric weather” because without forward motion of charge, no magnetism occurs. I’m grateful for your input LAH.
L.A.H says:
January 9, 2014 at 9:23 am
Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm.”
There are normally no indication in the solar wind that a magnetic storm is coming, so you may have cause and effect reversed: heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm.
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 10:33 am
Hang on to your hats people – this S3 storm is a biggie
There are 10 such per cycle, 25 S2 storms and 50 S1 storms per cycle, so the past 50 years
there has been 50 S3s, 125 S2s, and 250 S1s, so this storm is not exceptional and the extreme weather it might cause wouldn’t be either.
“heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm” – are you serious? I didn’t say that – you did. As far as the seriousness of this storm, well, as compared to background it is, as well as compared to storms of lesser severity – all relative.
Whether it’s considered by you as not exceptional wouldn’t be to anyone under it’s influence who might die from a heart attack or do something or say something rash because of it. That doesn’t even include whatever misery this storm’s interaction with our weather might cause to any number of people until it’s over.
There is no distinctly different or seperate “magnetic” energy. “Magnetic” storms are caused by the dramatic UPTICKS in “electric and magnetic” solar wind density & speed that get registered by proton and electron measurements by GOES and ACE satellites, among many others measurements. There is no confusion as to cause and effect here. Solar flares kick it out, and we receive it.
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 11:33 am
“heart attacks cause magnetic storms if the micro variations begin a day before the storm” – are you serious? I didn’t say that – you did.
LAH did.
As far as the seriousness of this storm, well, as compared to background it is, as well as compared to storms of lesser severity – all relative.
It is a relatively benign storm of which we have about 10 every solar cycle…
Whether it’s considered by you as not exceptional wouldn’t be to anyone under it’s influence who might die from a heart attack or do something or say something rash because of it.
Nobody would do that because of ‘it’. To blame somebody’s rash behavior on solar flares seems a very convenient, but lame excuse. But perhaps it is your excuse for the nonsense you peddle.
There is no confusion as to cause and effect here. Solar flares kick it out, and we receive it.
Absolutely, as we receive all the other flares, hundreds of them.
I looked but didn’t see that quote in LAH’s comment, or the article itself. That might’ve been a rash of yours, eh? It’s Ok – we all do it. I understand. What about the people that die from these storms? Don’t they matter? Are their deaths unimportant, insignificant statistics?
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 12:35 pm
I looked but didn’t see that quote in LAH’s comment, or the article itself.
“Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm – because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm”
Causes usually precedes effects.
What about the people that die from these storms?
Nobody dies from these storms.
Bob Weber = Gerald Kelleher
Geez Leif, that’s really stretching it. The article clearly describes heart attacks caused by space weather – what’s your problem – are you saying people don’t die from heart attacks? The micro-variations in the magnetic field preceding the storm 24 hours ahead can trigger heart attacks. That’s the message, not what you said.
LKMiller: don’t know who you’re refering to, and it doesn’t matter. We’re all unique.
Found today from http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/ that WUWT has done a lot of work I wasn’t aware of. Also, I’ve got 53 pages and counting of abstracts related to subjects I’ve discussed, and well, is the price of knowledge more than the price of ignorance? Is it worth it? Yes to both. Those papers are going to cost me a small fortune.
You might not realize it, but I’m a student of life like everyone else here, and maybe my initial efforts have gotten off to a rough start, but that’s life.
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 2:44 pm
The micro-variations in the magnetic field preceding the storm 24 hours ahead can trigger heart attacks. That’s the message, not what you said.
Except that there are no such variations [in spite of the claim]. A colleague of mine looked into those kinds of claims long ago: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v259/n5541/abs/259302a0.html
“A number of Russian scientists8–10 have claimed that there is a real association between geomagnetic storms and the incidence of various human diseases. Within this general area, one of the most active areas of current research seems to be the correlation of solar activity and myocardial infarction and stroke. We have searched for a similar correlation in the USA but have failed to find one.”
Found this site today http://phcal.com/paranormalhelp/emf/index.html (paranormal means phenomena understood to be outside of science’s current ability to explain or measure), where the notes say referring to Geomagnetic & EMF Hypersensitivity
1. The ACE satellite is in a locked orbit between the Earth and Sun. You can think of this as a “Early Warning System” for inbound space weather. Whereas the GOES satellites are in geosynchronous orbit around the Earth. Magnetic levels seen by the ACE satellite are roughly 40 to 50 minutes in advance of what will be seen by the Earth. Levels seen by the GOES satellites are the Earth’s resulting field in real time.
2. EMF Hypersensitivity is a medically proven fact, though not fully understood. For those who feel it’s effect, developing an understanding of it will help. Monitoring this page and reading http://phcal.com/paranormalhelp/emf/emf_sensitive.html may help you in this effort.
3. Magnetic waves travel from the Sun towards the Earth like waves in the ocean. These waves have a directional amplitude (Bx, By, Bz & Bt) and angle (Phi & Theta). A strong shift in either will effect the Earth’s field and result in an EMF Hypersensitive person feeling the effect. Different types of shifts cause different effects on a sensitive person. With time you will learn what your pattern is.
My lady & I know our patterns, so we watch several indices including Kp. FYI – hope it helps someone somewhere sometime.
lsvalgaard says:
January 9, 2014 at 7:41 am
The Heliospheric Current Sheet Sector Boundary which AR9144 straddles is about to sweep over the Earth in the next day or so. At that time the solar wind speed will dip, but then in the days ahead reach a maximum. The density will peak at the boundary, and the magnetic field will increase for a couple of days or so just after the boundary. This is the standard signature of a sector boundary crossing. Here is what the average response [over a thousand boundaries] looks like: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Sector-Boundaries.png
————
Good job explaining Dr. S. Thank you for the info..
What about cosmic rays? During this episode? Been seeing way too much low thin dark cloud cover but thin layers..
@Bob Weber
Just the Facts on his, sober look at the northern polar vortex, has added some more and newer articles.
Your particles continue on, once injected into the Earth system. Gotta know how it all moves around too, ya know? How that night jet, anticyclone forms and from where..
justthefactswuwt says:
January 8, 2014 at 7:00 pm
Daniel Vogler says: January 8, 2014 at 12:21 am
It is technically not a true SSW, rather a USLM disturbance that usually precedes a SSW. The warming initiated at the 1hPa and downwelled to 10hPa, http://i.imgur.com/zK7IB6l.gif
Interesting. Per a paper you cited here;
http://forum.netweather.tv/user/18727-daniel-vogler/?tab=reputation
Thanx for the tips Carla. You know, the more I learn, the more I learn how much I need to learn.
Bob Weber says:
January 9, 2014 at 5:42 pm
will effect the Earth’s field and result in an EMF Hypersensitive person feeling the effect. Different types of shifts cause different effects on a sensitive person. With time you will learn what your pattern is.
So only hypersensitve persons die from this. BTW, modern studies show that the mortality is highest on geomagnetically very quiet days where you should not feel a thing, e.g. http://www.leif.org/EOS/Deaths-on-Quiet-Days.pdf This is typical of spurious ‘results’: different papers draw opposite conclusions.
Carla says:
January 9, 2014 at 6:50 pm
What about cosmic rays? During this episode? Been seeing way too much low thin dark cloud cover but thin layers..
One swallow does not a summer make. But in general cosmic rays are at a maximum at a sector boundary [for well-understood reasons – e.g. solar wind speed is low], e.g. http://www.leif.org/research/Cosmic-Rays-Thule-SB.png
The rapid daily variation is real and is caused by the Earth rotating into the cosmic rays in the morning and away from them in the evening [driving on a road you see more cars coming towards you than overtaking you]. The sector boundaries are all nominally sweeping by at 0h Greenwich Time [my sector polarity list has 1-day resolution].