From the WUWT Solar Reference page, an X 1.2 event has occurred:
![Xray[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/xray1.gif)
From NASA Spaceweather:
Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet.
One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions. Rocky Raybell photographed the active region named “AR1944” yesterday from his backyard in Keller, Washington:
The sprawling sunspot contains dozens of dark cores, the largest big enough to swallow Earth three times over.
Here is the latest SDO image:
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
This graphic from Tamitha Skov
More at the WUWT Solar Reference page
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By coincidence, last night’s Stargazing Live on BBC2 (hosted by Brian Cox) had a lot to say about the dangers of solar flares, and they also showed beautiful live aurora images. This event was probably occurring roughly at the same time. They’ll probably have more to say about solar flares on tonight’s program!
Chris
Janice- apology accepted. Sylvia – the electric weather happens high in the atmosphere as a result of soalr wind interactions that trigger ions diffusion into the atmosphere. A long chain of events of various kinds occur here that are easily discoverable by the intrepid investigator. Today I’m preparing for something else, but later, asap, I’ll return with supportive “backup”. Have a nice day.
From http://www.solarham.net/ “Radiation Storm Continues: Proton levels streaming past Earth continue to slowly rise. We are now above the Moderate (S2) level radiation storm threshold in the wake the the X1.2/CME event.”
Additionally, the S1 radiation caused by Dec 31/Jan 1 flares M6.4 and M9.9 provided the energy for the now subsiding arctic vortex. Yesterday’s X-flare is more powerful, delivering big spikes in hard xrays (photons), protons, and electrons. The interaction here will be more potent, especially if Bz is significantly negative. Favorable conditions for another solar wind caused planetary wave induced SSW could be in the works resulting in another arctic vortex… Look out. The S1 storm was mediated by the new moon. This first quarter moon interaction will be somewhat different perhaps, something we can all learn from if we’re open to observing the universe in all it’s glory.
The potency of the CME blast from a flare can be partially seen in the amount of time it takes for it to get here. We’ll be watching, waiting, and learning together. If we think AR1944 is impressive, take a look at the farside watch on Solarham, and see how much more intense regions 1934, 1936, 1937 are than 1944.
Bob Weber says:
January 8, 2014 at 5:32 am
Additionally, the S1 radiation caused by Dec 31/Jan 1 flares M6.4 and M9.9 provided the energy for the now subsiding arctic vortex.
No, the total energy in those particle is too minute to have any effect on the weather.
For those who haven’t, please click on the solar image on the right sidebar of WUWT — it brings up a wealth of solar images, graphs & data. Even shows coronal mass ejections streaming out from the sun & how it impacts the planets.
Leif,
– In a NASA article of August 5: According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun’s vast magnetic field is about to flip. “It looks like we’re no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal,” says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/)
– This was repeated (with same periode of “3 to 4 months away”!) on December 9. ( http://www.clarksvilleonline.com/2013/12/09/nasa-reports-magnetic-field-sun-reverse/)
– On December 17, the title was “Sun will ‘flip upside down’ within weeks – scientists”: Scientist won’t know for around another three weeks whether the flip is complete. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11173939)
– On December 30: “Sun has ‘flipped upside down’ – Nasa”. The sun has fully “flipped upside down”, with its north and south poles reversed to reach the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24, Nasa has said. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11179370)
My questions:
– Do you agree that a solar “flip” has two phases (i.e. a “flip” in the northern and southern polar fields) and that what happened during the last months concerned only the southern polar fields?
– Which event did the scientists conclude that the “flip” was complete around December 30? Has it something to do with the 7 degree tilt of the sun’s axis? You even quoted from an e-mail of Todd Hoeksema: We can now confirm that the south pole of the Sun as measured by WSO has reversed polarity. We’ve just updated the analysis for the last month or so as Earth approached the solar equator from the north.
If this is (part of) the explanation, why is the direct surrounding area around the poles so important. I thought that Sun’s Polar Field strength is measured at WSO each day between about 55 degrees and the poles. Why had the scientist to wait until 30 December to take firm conclusions?
At this point Dr. Svalgaard, I will ask you to suspend judgment until the S2+ storm reaches full intensity. Here’s what I think happened, unless you have proof positive that it didn’t:
The electron vortex created above the north pole by the magnetotail’s interaction with the S1 radiation storm the Earth encountered during the new moon as a result of two solar flares (high-energy photon bursts), dragged the cold of space with it into the pole, until the electrons in the magnetosphere reached equilibrium with the earth.
Auroras are classified as either electron or proton driven. ALL electric/magnetic weather effects are solar driven. It’s photons, protons, and electrons from short-term solar bursts that drive extreme weather events and natural disasters. It takes days for all those effects to play out, in ways that vary with many variable factors. THERE IS NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN.
By the end of this winter, it will be obvious who is right here.
Apparently that’s about where I am, too. No extreme cold here on Whidbey Island. The Pacific Ocean sees to that, for the most part.
After bit of a wait polar magnetic field is updated by Stanford-WSOhttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.htm
My sympathy to all N. Americans in this cold spel, i shouln’t say ‘told you so’ but since number of things are converging, low solar activity, solar and the Earth’s magneting field going out of phase, sudden drop in the N. Atlantic tectonics, I took a gamble on this ‘pseudoscience’, put my money where my mouth is, bought a place at south of France and enjoyng pleasant +16C.
Just wanted to comment, I’m usually pretty even keel, yesterday I was so out of sorts, and had extreme anxiety for a few hours…it was very uncomfortable, and I could not understand it. Today I checked to see if there was a solar flare, and lo and behold….yes. It may be that people that are
more empathic and sensitive to energies have differing experiences than people that are not.
Open mindedness is knowing that our experiences of events are not all alike.
For those that asked about “when this flare will reach us,” it takes about 30 to 72 hours for plasma and charged particles released from the sun to reach earth.
I would also invite you to view these events as something positive. Every time a large solar flare occurs I go outside [barefoot on grass] about 48 hours afterwards, face the sun, and form an electrical/energetic connection with the sun. The last two times I interacted with the sun in this manner I received information and loving frequencies that brought tears to my eyes. Try it!
(this is not to put anyone down, just to consider the thread as it has gone for the past 18 hours or so from Dr. Svalgaard’s point of view)
Okay, Dr. Svalgaard, you won’t do it, but I WILL:
Aaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!!!!!!!!!
And, thank you, Bob Weber, for your forgiveness. I hope that today is going well for you. Take care.
rikgheysens says:
January 8, 2014 at 7:06 am
– Do you agree that a solar “flip” has two phases (i.e. a “flip” in the northern and southern polar fields) and that what happened during the last months concerned only the southern polar fields?
The North and the South usually [at least every time we have observed it] change polarity at different times.
I thought that Sun’s Polar Field strength is measured at WSO each day between about 55 degrees and the poles. Why had the scientist to wait until 30 December to take firm conclusions?
Read the discussion of Section 2 of http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
The time when the last tiny bit of the old polarity finally reverses at the very pole is later than when the average above 55 degrees reverses. In fact, our high-resolution SDO/HMI data shows that there still is some old polarity remnants at the South pole even today.
Perhaps some confusion comes from the dumbing down that NASA [always] does. The Sun’s dipole component does not ‘flip’ in any sense of the word. The polar fields get weaker [independently in N and S] and ‘flicker’ on-off [possibly with counter mini-reversals] for a time near maximum until finally [a couple of years after maximum] settling down with a stable new polarity.
Bob Weber says: January 8, 2014 at 7:28 am
At this point Dr. Svalgaard, I will ask you to suspend judgment until the S2+ storm reaches full intensity. Here’s what I think happened, unless you have proof positive that it didn’t:
The electron vortex created above the north pole by the magnetotail’s interaction with the S1 radiation storm the Earth encountered during the new moon as a result of two solar flares (high-energy photon bursts), dragged the cold of space with it into the pole, until the electrons in the magnetosphere reached equilibrium with the earth.
Considering the heat capacity of ‘space’, I can’t imagine much cooling.
Keep your eyes open people. I don’t claim to have all the answers. I hope Dr. Svalgaard feels the same about himself. Life continues to teach lessons. We can’t be afraid to challenge our assumptions, no matter our station in life. Are all things understood? If they were, Dr. Svalgaard would have stood up and proclaimed there’s nothing to see here, this isn’t unusual, I know how it happened, and this is the explanation… and a straightforward understandable answer would have been given that we’d all have accepted by now. But that’s not what happened, is it?
Thank you [juaves says: January 8, 2014 at 8:46 am] for being honest and open about your experience. You just had a bout of “electric weather” – it’ll pass eventually. When, I don’t know, because that big old ball of plasma up there decides when that’s gonna happen, and when it ends. From the looks of the double-spike GOES and ACE protons and electrons charts, I’d say we’re in for a real ride again – but it depends on Bz, right Dr. Svalgaard?
One thing we all can relate to is hard feelings. What I learned through the past decade after recognizing what happens during “electric weather” episodes is: Hard feelings generated from these experiences “stick” with people, and they hang on to those emotions, rationalizing their anger and behavour, attributing it to “what they think” rather than what they “feel” caused by these outside causal events. If the human race can understand these reactions when they happen, a lot of conflict and misery in the world could be avoided. Something to be “conscience” about.
Flush your toilet – what happens? A water vortex. What does it do? It sucks air into the middle of the vortex, doesn’t it?
Of all the given explanations for this arctic vortex, which makes the most sense? If this weather feature is part of the arctic winter every year as we’ve heard it explained, then why don’t we always have such potent cold blasts? Why is it people are saying they can’t remember it ever being like this in their lifetime? I promise you the evidence is rich, deep, and wide for what I’ve said, and I’m working towards proving that to all of you.
” Why is it people are saying they can’t remember it ever being like this in their lifetime?”
Because memories are notoriously unreliable.
Bob Weber says:
January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
this isn’t unusual, I know how it happened, and this is the explanation… and a straightforward understandable answer would have been given that we’d all have accepted by now. But that’s not what happened, is it?
With the exception of you not learning anything, that is indeed what happened. The polar vortex and stratospheric warmings [break down of the vortex] are well understood. Of course, in a few lines I can’t give you that understanding, but you can build on what I said and use Google to find out a lot more.
If this weather feature is part of the arctic winter every year as we’ve heard it explained, then why don’t we always have such potent cold blasts?
For the same reason that although it is always warm in the summer, sometimes it is much warmer than usual: weather is variable.
I’d say we’re in for a real ride again – but it depends on Bz, right Dr. Svalgaard?
Actually not that simple. It depends on the product of Bz and the square of the solar wind speed. Bz changes sign every few hours [sometimes every few minutes]. But, none of this has anything thing to do with the amount of ions in the lower atmosphere where you live
re: “I’m working towards proving that to all of you.” (Bob Weber today at 3:34pm)
Dear Mr. Weber,
When I read that I sighed. You will, I have no doubt, try your hardest. If after another week or so, you realize that we are too attached to the physics which we (actually, I should not say, “we,” I am not even a scientist, much less a solar physicist), rather, the scientists responding to you here have learned over many, many decades of study, to accept your message, do give it up.
Direct your earnest efforts toward minds that have not already gone far down the path of the math, physics, and related studies which are taught in the major universities of the world. Otherwise, you will only expose yourself to more ridicule or, at least, to persistently firm disagreement and to sharp refutations of what you are trying to tell us.
Discernment is called for, here. You are now one day closer to your last sunrise. Pick your battles wisely. Believe me, this one is a losing one. You have such a sweet spirit; spend your time making yourself HAPPY.
Take care,
Janice
It’s just anecdotal but my husband and I were very out of sorts for most of yesterday. It has to be said that we had good reasons for this. We are settling back in Australia and feel as though we are wading through glue trying to sort out all the admin! We feel a lot better today but a smidge of ‘cask white’ helps!!!
Bob Weber says:
January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
“Flush your toilet – what happens? A water vortex. What does it do? It sucks air into the middle of the vortex, doesn’t it? ”
It also produces a nasty outflow of air into the room. That is why one should never keep their toothbrush at the sink near the toilet.
So are we earthlings in any danger from the radiation?
I should say yesterday was the 8th in Australia…I didn’t make allowance for large time differences from here (Victoria in Aus) to the West coast of the US…not such an obvious difference when we still in the UK!
vukcevic says:
January 8, 2014 at 8:10 am
After bit of a wait polar magnetic field is updated by Stanford-WSOhttp://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.htm
My sympathy to all N. Americans in this cold spel, i shouln’t say ‘told you so’ but since number of things are converging, low solar activity, solar and the Earth’s magneting field going out of phase, sudden drop in the N. Atlantic tectonics, I took a gamble on this ‘pseudoscience’, put my money where my mouth is, bought a place at south of France and enjoyng pleasant +16C.
—————————————–
Vuks would you take a look at this., do you see LOD following the solar dipole on a downward trend?
Page 19 figure S1
http://www.liv.ac.uk/~holme/nature_sub.pdf
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/MultipoleR.gif
lsvalgaard says:
January 7, 2014 at 6:14 pm
—————-
Thanks Dr. Svalgaard, for that and most other replies here.
Bob Weber says:
January 8, 2014 at 3:34 pm
———————————–
Just the Facts has some good info on polar vortex,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/07/a-sober-look-at-the-northern-polar-vortex/#more-100709
I’m looking too, at polar vortex, as MSM hasn’t really said much..Seems pretty strong that polar vortex the past several months.
Good night