It looks like the “rescued” climate scientists, journalists, and tourists will have to wait on-board the Aurora Australis awhile longer while this episode plays out. There is still a lot of ice ahead according to the webcam on Aurora Australis (seen below) which had been slowed to a crawl, making only 1/4 knot.
![A140030701A[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/a140030701a1.jpg?quality=83)
Press release: 4.30pm AEDT Friday 03 January 2014
Aurora Australis on standby as a precautionary measure
Xue Long notified AMSA at 1pm AEDT this afternoon it has concerns about their ability to move through heavy ice in the area.
The Aurora Australis has been placed on standby by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s (AMSA) Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia) to remain in open water in the area as a precautionary measure.
The Xue Long has advised RCC Australia that it will attempt to manoeuvre through the ice when tidal conditions are most suitable during the early hours of 4 January 2014.
There is no immediate danger to personnel on board the Xue Long.
www.amsa.gov.au/media
Source: http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/030114UpdateAntartica.pdf
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Meanwhile, the beginning of this domino effect has been traced back to a sightseeing expedition by the passengers of the Akademik Shokalskiy that spent too much time getting back on the ship.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see where the new Russian nuclear-powered ice breakers will be used, could include the Antarctic on account of the fuel requirements ice breaking demands as per your post.
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Chris4692 asks about the dynamics of icebreaker shiphandling.
I was a quartermaster on the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Northwind 1975-1978. Made an AWE (Arctic Winter East) cruise up into Baffin Bay in ’76, the annual McMurdo resupply in late ’76 (Operaton Deep Freeze A76), and an unexpected winter in the North American Great Lakes in ’77, escorting ore carriers. Quartermasters are on the bridge all the time.
Northwind was a 269-foot Wind class breaker, built during WWII.
You can google all sorts of info about these icebreakers.
During the McMurdo cruise, Northwind and sister ship Burton Island broke a channel into McMurdo Sound so a freighter and a tanker could resupply the base. I do not recall either cargo vessel being even ice-strengthened.
They arrived, not at the same time, after the icebreakers had cut the channel, which took about three weeks to go 20-30 kilometers. Once the channel was broken, one breaker would continue going up and down it to keep it free of reforming ice. The channel was wide enough – barely – for two ships, so a breaker could even pass the cargo vessel, and if need be, go in a very close circle at very low speed around it.
Top speed for a Wind-class may have been 14 knots, but circling another vessel would be done at much less depending upon the thickness of the churned, reforming channel ice.
A breaker also had to break the ice at the ice pier, then keep the turning basin ice churned after the cargo vessel was moored.
Northwind also broke out the old aircraft runway (on the pack ice) so it could eventually float out the sound.
Temperature was in the upper 30’s F, and we had but one two-day blizzard in early January 1977. Otherwise, 24 hours a day of blazing sun and pristine blue sky.
During the Great Lakes cruise, an ice storm in early January 1978, a handful of Lake ore boats (they’re called boats even if they are 1000 feet long) got stuck in Lake Erie, not too far north of Cleveland. I forget if they were empty and headed back north or full and trying to get to Toledo. Granted, the ice was certainly not as thick as polar ice, but the Lake boats could not move.
Northwind broke them out, sometimes gingerly, sometimes not (we banged bow into the stern of one, causing about $50,000 US damage…to them).
I think some smaller Coast Guard vessels, ice-strengthened tugs or buoy tenders, may have assisted occasionally.
We did this by circling a given vessel, our speed and distance dependent upon ice thickness and how churned up it was. There isn’t any real rule of thumb other than that. Churned up ice acts as a cushion, sort of, and the conning officer must adjust his steering commands to take advantage of that.
It was a bit dicier than working with the cargo ships down McMurdo way, though. So much so that the captain required the quartermasters to do all the steering as well as stand our usual bridge watches.
I remember steering during one watch and we we doing about 10 knots, coming about one ship width (65 feet or so) from a Lake boat as we churned down its side. I could clearly see the churned-up ice cushioning the other vessel and bouncing us off a bit.
Once the stuck boats were freed, they formed a convoy in single-file, usually behind us.
Most of the Lake boats picked up their cargo – ores – in Duluth, Minnesota, on Lake Superior’s western side. Ice-strengthened buoy tenders were the escorts through Superior.
Northwind served as escort from Sault Ste. Marie on that lake’s eastern end down through Lake Huron into Lake Erie, where the ore boats went to different ports on Ohio’s northern shore.
The Polar class icebreakers were built to replace the Wind-class. They are rated for heavier ice than the U.S. Coast Guard’s Healy, which was the service’s only icebreaker for a handful of years.
Google “polar star icebreaker” and you will see many photos of that class in action.
Phaaz Spaas says at January 3, 2014 at 8:44 am
Oh dear. It was going so well until the accusation of a straw-man argument. CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere. If not then all cAGW theory collapses.
So the effect is well mixed? No, we can agree that other factors overwhelm the effect of CO2 in some places, compared with others.
But that does mean the attribution of anything to CO2 is impossible… unless you can model all the other factors, known and unknown. Hmm, the failure of the models and common sense can tell you that ain’t going to happen.
So the your original point remains. Global Warming is not Global.
And my point remains. The fools sailed down south with a press crew and somehow failed to report your observation.
Why criticise the sceptics for talking about the science and ignore the delusional adherents to a falsified hypothesis for refusing to talk bout what they found?
~~~
We all know that Global Warming isn’t Global. As you state.
QED – We all know that other factors overwhelm the effects of Global Warming in many locations.
QED – It can’t be known where if anywhere, Global Warming is significant.
~~~
Not a straw-man argument. It is the logical extrapolation of your statement..
“While scientists expect and observe more extreme weather with man-made global warming, some say it’s not quite fair to blame the Antarctic blizzard that trapped the ship on climate change.”
HA! Bad enough that almost all news stories conveniently forgot to mention that A. this ship was there to document the loss of ice B. that it is summer in antarctica and C that Antarctic sea ice is at an all time record.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/52-passengers-trapped-antarctica-rescued-21393578
_Jim says: @ur momisugly January 3, 2014 at 10:30 am
…Besides, don’t you or your husband’s retirement accounts/Mutual funds potentially own shares in Exxon-Mobil? So, in that case who are the ‘owners’?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WRONG question! And a big red herring.
What is the source of money flowing into stock funds?
The money comes from a variety of sources, including individuals saving for retirement and future education expenses. Although the industry does not trace the source of money used to purchase mutual fund shares, Federal Reserve data indicate that households have been net sellers of individual stocks while acquiring stock mutual fund shares in recent years.
Please note the words “stock mutual fund shares”
So you are not buying stock but shares of the mutual fund who then invest the money. SO WHO votes the stock held by Mutual Fund/retirement accounts? Not the people who forked over the $$$ but the people controlling the Mutual Fund/retirement accounts.
That is the point you consistently refuse to understand. People are told the stock belongs to them in Mutual Fund/retirement accounts but no one mentions they do not CONTROL that stock because they do not vote it. Heck how many Greenies with Mutual Fund/retirement accounts have their money invested in Monsanto stock, or as you point out Exxon-Mobil and do not even know it?
When you think of it it is a really neat idea.
Fidelity Magellan (Johnson family) takes money from a lot of people and invests it. They skim a % off the top and get to vote the shares (control) but if a company they invest in goes belly-up they have nothing invested besides a bit of time that they are paid for. Since the Johnson’s own several Mutual Funds besides Fidelity Magellan they do not even risk their reputation killing off their livelihood.
In the 1980s there were a lot of hostile take overs that resulted in a lot of well run well financed mid-sized companies being destroyed and the value of the assets ending up in the corporate raiders coffers. Again, WHO voted the stock along with those corporate raiders to take a one time lump sum and then move on to the next company?
In general it wasn’t the little people, those who had money in the Mutual Fund/retirement accounts. During that time period I worked for a company who was a target. Because the stock was mostly owned directly by employees/ retired employees out right we were able to tell the corporate raider where to stuff his blackmail.
Surely you could tow a nuclear powered ice-breaker from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere. This is the US Navy not NASA.
Just noticed this, Turkey’s twitter description of himself:
“Chris Turney
@ProfChrisTurney
Scientist, explorer and author of 1912: The Year The World Discovered Antarctica (http://textpublishing.com.au/books-and-authors/book/1912/ …)
University of New South Wales · christurney.com”
That’s right. He sees himself as being an explorer
Nuclear powered vessels are expensive to build and operate, too expensive for use on low profit routes/missions. Notice that the US has not built a nuclear powered icebreaker, or any but one NP cargo vessel – beautiful though she was.
If 50 Let Pobedy were tasked an urgent Antarctic mission, how many hours at 20 Kt and 100% power would it take to sail the roughly 20,000 Km, and every one of those hours would be un-budgeted fuel hours? That would be a minimum of 1000 Effective Full Power Hours, just to get there, from a limited supply of very expensive fuel.
_Jim says: @ur momisugly January 3, 2014 at 10:30 am
Gail Combs says January 3, 2014 at 9:36 am
…
It is about MONEY not science and the transfer is from the poor to the rich.
We keep hearing this, it made little sense the fist time, and it soon falls on deaf ears; HOW are funds continually xferred from the poor rich? This defies something in economics on a par with one (or more) of the ‘laws’ of thermodynamics (heat energy xfers from warm objects to cold).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Are you really that ignorant? Who the heck do you think pays for the solar farm and Wind farm boondoggles? Whose electric bills have skyrocketed to the point UK pensioners have to decide whether to eat or freeze?
Here educate yourself:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/wind-farm-scam-a-huge-cover-up/story-e6frgd0x-1226345185075#
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2000/03/01/great-windmill-scam
Stephen Richards says:
December 30, 2013 at 1:37 am
This is a very serious problem and the mirthful responses should probably be toned down until their fate is known
Can we all start jumping for joy after they die ?? then
+++++++++
Mod, I believe this comment is over the line.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/
The alarmists are using this as fodder for their attacks against WUWT.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Richards isn’t one of them.
A few conversions from the fuel burn rate listed in my previous post:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/92m.htm
A gallon of (middle gravity range) Diesel fuel weighs 7.3 pounds.
Assuming the tons listed were American 6K pounds of fuel/7.3 = 821.91 gallons of fuel burned while fighting ice. In a full day of breaking ice, roughly 19726.027 gallons of fuel are burnt.
U.S. per capita energy consumption is listed here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum at 21.8 bbl/year. While I realize that not all crude can be converted to Diesel fuel, the crude must be transported and refined into useful energy. There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil. 21.8 X 42 = a U.S. per capita burn rate of 915 gallons.
There are 52 “eco-heroes” aboard the AA. At a daily burn rate of 19726 gallons/day while fighting ice, the enemies of carbon fuel are burning 379.34 gallons of Diesel per person per day. Meaning, in less than three days, they would consume an entire year’s worth of fuel by U.S. per capita standards. Apparently, the cost of “Intrepid Science” is rather dear.
Worse yet, these calculations only account for the consumption of one of the three ships involved in this goat rope. Some pigs are more equal than others!
Doug Huffman says:
January 3, 2014 at 11:44 am
—–
Do you think the towing suggested by Steve could work?
kwinterkorn says:
January 3, 2014 at 9:42 am
You did not say what is the inconvenient issue(s) for sceptics….?
@ur momisugly Kwinterkorn: Oops – my bad comprehension. Sorry.
Who is throwing herrings now? The oil companies are actually providing useful product, and will for some time to come. Do you drive a car? Use anything made of plastic? Wasn’t that the subject? (or was the subject changed on a whim?)
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Gail, you are very nearly uneducable on this topic (economics), so strong and narrow are the blinders you have on. And that is such a shame. From scanning your response, I could not tell if you addressed the issue of continually extracting wealth from the poor to the betterment of the rich; by any measure, you and I are doing much better than our ancestors on so many different levels, yet you ‘loose’ repeated clarion calls that embrace ‘wealth redistribution’ on a scale that communists and socialists could heartily embrace. That has ALWAYS worked in the past. Not. Makes one think there ma y be screws ‘loose’ above the neck in the cranial cavity …
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Skating from subject to subject; attempting to address all the worlds ills, inequalities and problems in one post; conflating a poster’s expressed opinion in one area into another.
.
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Please, pick a subject and stick with it. Look cogent and rational for a change, ‘k?
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negrum says: January 3, 2014 at 12:12 pm “Do you think the towing suggested by Steve could work?”
The premise that NP icebreakers cannot operate in equatorial waters is false. The cost of an ocean tow of a large vessel would be prohibitive.
The theme of emergent and urgent operations in remote locations is common in hard science space operas.
Gail Combs says January 3, 2014 at 9:36 am
…
It is about MONEY not science and the transfer is from the poor to the rich.
—-
I would agree with you in general but I think it is more a case of the money flowing from the gullible to the crooked. If CO2 trading is built on a mistaken assumption, many scammers are enriching themselves via tenders from government and investment from suckers. Hardly new, just using CAGW as the next bubble (something like dotcom but with even less value.) Running it under the green movement shows their understanding of current global fashion.
My knowledge of international companies is not personal, so I don’t quite follow the rest of the argument, but I think just the above is quite enough to bankrupt countries, unless they turn the brakes on, which does seem to be happening here and there.
Here’s some interesting research just released.
Antarctic ice shelf melt ‘lowest EVER recorded,
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/01/03/antarctic_ice_shelf_melt_lowest_ever_recorded_just_not_much_affected_by_global_warming/
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=2452
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/01/02/science.1244341.abstract?sid=b38e30ea-23a1-49f1-92fa-a807b49036a1
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11181319
But on Friday afternoon, the crew of a Chinese icebreaker that had provided the helicopter said they were worried about their own ship’s ability to move through the ice. The Aurora – which was carrying the passengers to the Australian island state of Tasmania – was told to stay in the area in case the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon needs help, according to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Coordination Centre, which oversaw the rescue.
I can imagine how the crew of the Aurora feel about
1/ Having their own supply run to McMurdo disrupted
2/ Having a bunch of “tourists” on board complaining about the lack of banana/peanut milkshakes
3/ Having a bunch of eco-loonies complaining about the delay in getting home, while 3 ships are tied up in rescuing them from their own stupidity
And then add in the actual scientists at McMurdo who have lost at least 2 weeks of study time, instruments still on board the Aurora, food, supplies for McMurdo Base
I’ll stop there, the sheer stupidity shown is overwhelming
Doug Huffman says:
January 3, 2014 at 12:41 pm
negrum says: January 3, 2014 at 12:12 pm “Do you think the towing suggested by Steve could work?”
” The premise that NP icebreakers cannot operate in equatorial waters is false. ”
—-
I got that.
——
” The theme of emergent and urgent operations in remote locations is common in hard science space operas. ”
——-
I fully agree.
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” The cost of an ocean tow of a large vessel would be prohibitive. ”
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That’s what I wanted to know. Thank you. I now have a better understanding of maritime constraints.
4. Discussions in the mess about how the world is going to end due to catastrophic global warming whilst stuck in an ocean of ice might be more than mildly annoying.
Xue Long reported dead in the water:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4174/centery:-66.65576/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
A couple of years ago this would not have happened. Until the 2010/11 season the Swedish icebreaker Odin was in Antarctica to keep the route to McMurdo open. Oden is the most powerful non-nuclear icebreaker in the World, GL 100 A5 ARC3, i. e. capable of continuous breaking in multi-year ice. It has visited the North Pole nine times. 13,000 tons, 25,000 HP, 31 meters wide.
It was built to operate as an icebreaker in the Baltic in winter and as a polar research vessel in summer. Then in 2006 Swedish politicians decided that there would never be another cold winter and hired her out cheaply to the US, who therefore could mothball their Star class icebreakers.
You can guess what happened. In 2010/11 we had a really bad winter. Swedish foreign trade and the important ferry traffic to Finland was badly disrupted. Business raised hell about the only icebreaker strong and wide enough to assist really large ships being 15,000 miles away when needed.
Consequently our politicians didn’t dare renew the charter contract in 2011, and the US had no choice but to overhaul the Polar Star, despite her advanced age.
Ironically this has been a very mild winter in the Baltic. There is very little ice and only “Ale” the smallest of the five Swedish icebreakers is in operation.
Yet another example of climate scientists “risking their lives for our planet”.