Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego. He was calling via cell phone from his car, and he was on his way into the TV station early.
He started off by saying, “Anthony, we have a really strange situation here”.
Then to my surprise, he relayed a conversation he had just had; a person on the Akademik Shokalskiy had reached out, because they didn’t have adequate weather data on-board. At first, I thought John was pulling my leg, but then as he gave more details, I realized he was serious.
What had happened was that the US Coast Guard had received a message from the ship, requesting weather and wind information for Antarctica. That got relayed to someone at the Scripps oceanographic Institute in San Diego, and it went to John’s weekend KUSI meteorologist Dave Scott. Dave had worked with a scientist who is now on the US Coast Guard IceBreaker Polar Star, and they had logged the request for weather for forecast data from Akademik Shokalskiy. That’s how all this got started.
The message was that they needed better weather information on the ship than they had, specifically about wind and how it might affect the breakup of sea ice. John asked me to gather everything I had on the area and send it, and also to help him contact Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics, because somehow John’s cellphone had gotten stuck into some sort of “private caller” mode and Joe wasn’t answering his phone due to how the incoming call looked.
My first thought was that no matter how much we’ve been criticizing the expedition for its silliness, that if such a request had reached all the way from Antarctica to me, I’d do everything I could to help.
I told John “give me 15 minutes”, which was about the time I’d need to get out of COSTCO and get back to my office and send along some things I knew would help.
I immediately called Joe D’Aleo at WeatherBell, who was as incredulous as I at the request, and asked him to call John Coleman right away. I explained to him that we had to remember that we were dealing with a Russian ship, not a military ship, but a charter vessel and they likely didn’t have all the tools that American meteorologists had and may not even know where to look for better data. I also pointed out that the Australian scientists on-board were climatologists, and not operational weather forecasters, and finding this sort of weather data probably wasn’t in their skill set.
Joe started working from the WeatherBell end, I finished my shopping and headed back to the office. As I drove, I started thinking about the situation with the ship there. They had wind compressing the ice into shore, with the Akademik Shokalskiy in the middle, and the wind wasn’t changing. They needed a wind shift in order to ease the pressure on the ice but they had no idea when that might happen. It was a waiting game, and as we know, the longer a ship remains trapped in sea ice, the greater its chances of having a hull breach due to the pressure.
I knew just what to send, because it was something that had been discussed several times by commenters on WUWT.
When I got back to the office, I no more than pulled up the bookmark and press send on the email with a brief description of the operational weather data model that covered the region and John Coleman was on the phone again. He asked me to talk to Dave Scott and explain what I had just sent over. I called Dave immediately and relayed the email.
I sent a live link that provided this image of Antarctica, and I noted in a Tweet about the same time:
Just had a request for Antarctic wind and FC data come up via Scripps from #spiritofmawson ship. KUSI, WeatherBell, WUWT all happy to help.
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
This map shows winds for area ship is trapped in. Waiting for katabatic winds to return which will clear ice. pic.twitter.com/XqCU6NfWWK
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) December 31, 2013
Dave listened intently to my explanation and then thanked me saying “this is exactly what we need”. I then started to do some research into the extensive library of operational forecast products put together by our friend Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell which can be seen at http://models.weatherbell.com/ About that same time I get a new email from Joe D’Aleo, and he had sorted out the maps needed and had sent an email to John, Dave, and I.
In a couple of minutes John Coleman was back on the phone to me, he wanted my assessment of the maps. I had looked at what was happening and saw what I thought might be an opening in 7-8 days based on the forecast graphics from WeatherBell, where the winds would shift to offshore in the area where Akademik Shokalskiy was stuck. Like we discussed in the WUWT post yesterday Polynyas are very important for marine life and cooling the oceans I had hoped that a coastal polyna might open up near the ship. We also discussed the possibility of a low pressure system passing nearby that might help break up the ice. I didn’t express much hope for that.
The problem is that they are in a catch-22 now, they need strong offshore winds to help blow the sea ice out to open water, but at the same time they need calm or light winds for a safe helicopter rescue.
John Coleman and Dave Scott put together a video news story which ran on the KUSI 6PM News tonight. I was interviewed for the story, and you can watch it here:
http://www.kusi.com/video?clipId=9686594&autostart=true
Watching the wind is the key to the way out of the situation the Akademik Shokalskiy is in. This near real-time wind model is worth watching, and it updates every three hours with new observations, click on the image to start it.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=144.30,-66.68,3000
Note the green circle marker, which is the approximate location the Akademik Shokalskiy is at. Winds are running parallel to the coast, and pushing ice up against the edge of the Commonwealth Bay.
Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.
Related articles
- All scientists and passengers to be taken off ship stuck in Antarctic Ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
John Gross says on January 1, 2014 at 12:51 am
Just for the record, Anthony, can you please explain if a competent forcaster could have warned them of the danger *before* they were trapped. If the signs were there and they ignored them then the leader should be made to answer for his incompetence.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I’d say they were blissfully oblivious to the simple fact where and when they travel to. In their itinerary there was a mention of seeing Aurora Australis (not the icebreaker) south of Macquarie Island on 13 to 14 December, obviously oblivious to the fact that day and nautical twilight there and then will be 23 hours or more. They really had no clue.
You thought you had seen it all ?
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/12/31/helicopter-rescue-needed-for-passengers-on-icebound-ship/
OMG … they are running out of booze !!
…. Some quotes from above Fox news article..
‘”We are preparing for evacuation to a dry ship so a few drinks seems reasonable, but we also have to be ready at a moment’s notice for the helicopter arrival so staying sober is important,”
“he ship has two weeks’ worth of fresh food, but Peacock said drinks are becoming sparse, with “just enough alcohol left” to ring in 2014.”
Things could get messy when the booze finally runs out, they will no doubt be getting that Chinese Helicopter to do trips to the supermarkets at risk of the Pilot’s life and limb.
Perhaps Turkey should have consulted his colleagues at NSW University who seem to know what the “weather” will be like in 2100 so predicting the next few days should be no problem?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/earth-will-heat-up-by-4c-by-the-year-2100-scientists-predict-9031810.html
On the other hand, “the 74” could hang on for the next 87 years – a rise of 4 degrees should clear the ice from Discovery Bay shouldn’t it?
P
By the way – thanks for a brilliant website Mr Watts – essential daily reading
Man Bearpig says:
January 1, 2014 at 3:57 am
…. Some quotes from above Fox news article..
‘”We are preparing for evacuation to a dry ship so a few drinks seems reasonable, but we also have to be ready at a moment’s notice for the helicopter arrival so staying sober is important,”
“he ship has two weeks’ worth of fresh food, but Peacock said drinks are becoming sparse, with “just enough alcohol left” to ring in 2014.”
Things could get messy when the booze finally runs out, they will no doubt be getting that Chinese Helicopter to do trips to the supermarkets at risk of the Pilot’s life and limb.
________________________
That should be do- able since the liquor store was closed yesterday, being a holiday and it’s tomorrow down there already, so the store’s open again.
Oz icebreaker Aurora is now showing an iced-up vessel on its bow webcam.
Shokalskiy or Chinese icebreaker?
Can anyone identify??
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
Mr Green Genes:
I didn’t mean men from the British Met Office, I meant meteorologists/forecasters on site making forecasts for the scientists who go out on trips over Antarctica on a daily basis, often supported by aircraft. These guys need accurate forecasts all the time – or as accurate as possible in the circumstances.
I agree with your assessment of the British Met Office.
Foxgoose – not the Russian – wheelhouse at one end, while Russian wheelhouse is midships.
aeroguy48 says:
January 1, 2014 at 2:35 am (Edit)
Or the Russian Captain for that matter. It is an Internet enabled ship. Some of this makes no sense at all. I find it difficult to believe there is this much incompetence surrounding this fiasco. It is very strange, or a really really bad sign for the future.
pat says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:39 am
Well aren’t you lucky. I can’t even load the top thread.
Anthony, you are a good weatherman and so is John Coleman. You were both looking for D’Aleo. Why you? The rest looking for the best! Maue’s maps. This isn’t a soap opera, its a weird super hero story.
Charles:
Got it in one.
It is nothing to do with climate, though, just ordinary weather for the area.
Yo!! Anthony and Joe D. Lets here for the Skeptics. real world data over model projection all the time.. Take note climate researchers
Wonder if you’ll get a thank you from Turney, BBC,Guardian reporters when they find out who has helped them!..might be waiting a long time??
Foxgoose (@Foxgoose) says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:12 am
Oz icebreaker Aurora is now showing an iced-up vessel on its bow webcam.
Shokalskiy or Chinese icebreaker?
Can anyone identify??
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
__________________
I compared lat/long. readings earlier and the other ship is the Xue Long- the Chinese icebreaker. They were less than 1K apart at the time, about an hour ago.
Charles the moderator said;
Or the Russian Captain for that matter. It is an Internet enabled ship. Some of this makes no sense at all. I find it difficult to believe there is this much incompetence surrounding this fiasco. It is very strange, or a really really bad sign for the future.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This what happens when blind faith takes over from common sense,
Think the captain will have some serious questions to answer should this ship get out and even more should it not get out.
The Xue Long is now underway after a prolonged stop.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4372/centery:-66.68253/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
Alan Robertson says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:36 am
Foxgoose (@Foxgoose) says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:12 am
Oz icebreaker Aurora is now showing an iced-up vessel on its bow webcam.
Shokalskiy or Chinese icebreaker?
Can anyone identify??
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
__________________
I compared lat/long. readings earlier and the other ship is the Xue Long- the Chinese icebreaker. They were less than 1K apart at the time, about an hour ago.
_____________________
I need to correct my statement… i compared navigation readings and found that the Aurora Australis and the Xue Long were less tahn 1K apart, but I do not know if the picture shows the Xue Long.
Slacko says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:27 am
pat says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:39 am
having trouble posting this on the top thread:
Well aren’t you lucky. I can’t even load the top thread.
————————–
Neither can I. Just too much for my elderly iPad.
“Despite the irony and folly of the situation, I’m sure readers will join me in the hope that everyone makes it off the ship safely, whether it is by helicopter or by the ship being freed from the ice.”
=================
Sure. But I’d prefer a safe helicopter rescue, because the sight of that vessel being crushed by ‘melting’ ice is going to have a global impact, even if it wont deter the alarmists at all …
Journalist on board Aurora confirms they are closing on Xue Long
https://twitter.com/colincosier/status/418287641621057536/photo/1
Ice looks pretty thick though.
01012014 12:00 UT SitRep: Excitement has been growing this afternoon as we are moving closer to the Xue Long. At time of writing we are 4 nautical miles away. This is a slow process as we zig zag through the pack creeping ever nearer. It is amazing seeing what an icebreaker can do. Good news is that the Akademik Shokalskiy can see us.
At 12:30 Xue Long’s AIS reported 4 knots and course 24 degrees (from marinetraffic.com)
Nigel S says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:50 am
01012014 12:00 UT SitRep: Excitement has been growing this afternoon as we are moving closer to the Xue Long. At time of writing we are 4 nautical miles away. This is a slow process as we zig zag through the pack creeping ever nearer. It is amazing seeing what an icebreaker can do. Good news is that the Akademik Shokalskiy can see us.
_________________________
Those aboard the A.S. might not be so excited as they watch you both sail out of view, into open water.
listening to: The Who– “Won’t Get Fooled Again”
Let’s just not forget that if these anti-rational warmists ever got to implement the anti-industrial policies they advocate, they would kill hundreds of millions of people, and the fact that their economic illiteracy fails to comprehend this fact is no excuse.
I can’t say I join Anthony’s sentiment for their wellbeing. I regard them as nasty anti-human fanatics.
Glad to hear the Xue Long is moving — it would seem that it is not trapped. Part of me enjoys the irony of this incident but the situation is much too serious for gloating. I hope everybody gets out of the ice safely.