New paper: Clouds blown by the solar wind

This paper suggests a terrestrial impact on cloud cover from the interplanetary electric field (IEF) via the global electric circuit. A primer video on the GEC is below.

Clouds blown by the solar wind M Voiculescu et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 045032 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045032

Abstract

In this letter we investigate possible relationships between the cloud cover (CC) and the interplanetary electric field (IEF), which is modulated by the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field. We show that CC at mid–high latitudes systematically correlates with positive IEF, which has a clear energetic input into the atmosphere, but not with negative IEF, in general agreement with predictions of the global electric circuit (GEC)-related mechanism. Thus, our results suggest that mid–high latitude clouds might be affected by the solar wind via the GEC. Since IEF responds differently to solar activity than, for instance, cosmic ray flux or solar irradiance, we also show that such a study allows distinguishing one solar-driven mechanism of cloud evolution, via the GEC, from others.

Introduction

There is high interest today in quantifying the solar contribution to climate change. Despite the progress in understanding the processes driving the Earth’s climate, quantifying the natural sources of climate variability, especially regarding solar effects, remains elusive (Solomon et al 2007, Gray et al 2010).

Although climate models are highly sophisticated and include many effects, they are not perfect and observational evidences are modest and ambiguous. Empirical evidences suggest a causal relationship between solar variability and climate, particularly in the pre-industrial epoch (Bond et al 2011), but possible mechanisms are unclear and qualitative. The balance between reflected radiation from space and Earth at different wavelengths contributes to temperature variation in a significant manner (Hartmann et al 1992), thus cloud cover play a major role in the terrestrial radiation budget. Modeling cloud contribution to climate at different spatial and temporal scales is probably the most challenging area of climate studies (Vieira and da Silva 2006). Despite increasing number of solar-cloud studies, there is no clear understanding of solar effect on cloud cover. Indirect mechanisms are proposed that would amplify the relatively small solar input and could explain solar-related variability observed at different time scales (from days to decades) in various cloud parameters, as for instance cloud cover (Udelhofen and Cess 2001, Marsh and Svensmark 2000, Voiculescu and Usoskin 2012) or cloud base height (Harrison et al 2011, Harrison and Ambaum 2013).

One indirect mechanism relates to the fact that the solar spectral irradiance varies significantly in the UV band, whose effect is limited to the stratosphere, thus a stratosphere–troposphere–ocean coupling, ‘top-down’ effect, is required (Gray et al 2010, Meehl et al 2009, Haigh et al 2010). Another mechanism relies on possible variations of atmospheric aerosol/cloud properties, affecting the transparency/absorption/reflectance of the atmosphere and, consequently, the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Two possible physical links have been proposed: one via the ion-induced/mediated nucleation by cosmic ray induced ionization (CRII) (Dickinson 1975, Svensmark and Friis-Christensen 1997, Carslaw et al 2002, Kazil and Lovejoy 2004, Yu and Turco 2001) and the other via the global electric circuit (GEC) effects on cloud/aerosol properties (Tinsley 2000, Harrison and Usoskin 2010). The former mechanism might be hardly distinguishable from noise, especially at short-term scale, as demonstrated using in situ/laboratory experiments (e.g., Carslaw 2009, Kulmala et al 2010, Enghoff et al 2011, Kirkby et al 2011) and statistical studies (e.g., Calogovic et al 2010, Dunne et al 2012). Opposing, studies of Svensmark et al (2009), Enghoff et al (2011), Svensmark et al (2013), Yu et al (2008) have shown that an impact of ionization on new particle formation and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) exists. Thus it is possible that the CRII-nucleation mechanism operates at longer time scales, but it might be spatially limited to the polar stratosphere (Mironova et al 2012). On the other hand, the GEC-related mechanism may be important (e.g., Tinsley 2000, Harrison and Usoskin 2010, Rycroft et al 2012), particularly for low-clouds and some links have been shown to exist between atmospheric electricity properties and cloud evolution/formation (Harrison et al 2013).

Since all solar drivers correlate to some extent, it may be difficult to evaluate which driver or combination of drivers is the best candidate for cloud cover modulation. An attempt to differentiate between solar irradiation (total or UV) and CRII effects on cloud cover has been made by Kristjánsson et al (2004), Voiculescu et al (20062007), Erlykin et al (2010), who showed that various mechanisms might act differently at different altitudes and geographical locations. However, the GEC is affected by the solar activity in a different way, via the interplanetary electric field (IEF), so that only positive IEF plays a role, while negative IEF does not. Positive IEF corresponds to a interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with a southward component, or negative z-component, which favors a direct energy transfer from solar wind to the magnetosphere and to ionosphere. For negative IEF (positive z-component of the IMF) the transfer is much less efficient and only a very small percentage of the solar wind energy is transferred to the magnetosphere (e.g. Dungey 1961, Papitashvili and Rich 2002, Siingh et al 2005). Thus, in contrast to other potential solar drivers which are expected to exert a monotonic influence, IEF is expected to affect clouds only when IEF is positive. This feature has a potential of separating the IEF effect from other drivers. Here we present results of correlation studies between the interplanetary electric field (IEF) and cloud cover, which might indicate the most probable mechanism that might affect cloud cover. We discuss here mainly results obtained for low cloud cover (LCC), but we also refer to middle- (MCC) and high-clouds (HCC).

Figure 5. Variation of average mid–high latitude (30°–75° N and S) low cloud cover (green continuous line), interplanetary electric field (black dots) and cosmic ray induced ionization (CRII) at 700 hPa (red dash). CRII is calculated using the atmospheric ionization model of Usoskin et al (2010).

Conclusion

Here we present a result of an empirical study showing that there is a weak but statistically significant relation between low cloud cover at middle–high latitudes in both Earth’s hemispheres and the interplanetary electric field, that favors a particular mechanism of indirect solar activity influence on climate: global electric circuit affecting cloud formation. We show that all characteristics of the relationship are in line with what is expected if the interplanetary electric field affects cloud cover via the global electric circuit:

(1) the low cloud cover shows a systematic correlation, at interannual time scale, with positive interplanetary electric field, at mid- and high-latitude regions in both hemispheres;

(2) there is no correlation between low cloud cover and interplanetary electric field in tropical regions;

(3) there is no correlation between low cloud cover and negative interplanetary electric field over the entire globe.

As an additional factor, cosmic ray flux may also affect cloud cover in the presence of positive interplanetary electric field. No clear effect of cosmic ray flux during periods of negative IEF was found.

Similar, but less statistically significant results were found also for middle and high cloud cover, suggesting that the primary effect is on low-clouds. The fact that the found statistical relation exists only for the periods of positive IEF and not for negative IEF disfavors other potential mechanisms of sun–cloud relations at mid–high latitudes, such as via ion-induced/mediated nucleation or UVI influence. However, the latter might work at low–mid latitudes. Although this empirical study does not give a clue for an exact physical mechanism affecting the clouds, as discussed above, it favors a particular solar driver, solar wind with the frozen-in interplanetary magnetic field, that affects the global electric current system at Earth. The result suggest that further research of solar-terrestrial influence ought to focus more also on this direction.

=============================================================

The paper is open source, see it here:

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045032/article

Related: No increase of the interplanetary electric field since 1926  (Sager and Svalgaard 2004)

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Chris Reeve
December 26, 2013 10:59 pm

Re: “I would also sit with rapt attention if EU had any explanations for anything, but they do not”
“Professionals generally avoid the risk inherent in real critical thinking and cannot properly be called critical thinkers. They are simply ideologically disciplined thinkers. Real critical thinking means uncovering and questioning social, political and moral assumptions; applying and refining a personally developed worldview; and calling for action that advances a personally created agenda. An approach that backs away from any of these three components lacks the critical spirit … Ideologically disciplined thinkers, especially the more gung-ho ones, often give the appearance of being critical thinkers as they go around deftly applying the official ideology and confidently reporting their judgments. The fact that professionals are usually more well-informed than nonprofessionals contributes to the illusion that they are critical thinkers.” (p41, Disciplined Minds, Jeff Schmidt)
“Because they internalize both the paradigms and their employers’ priorities and values, scientists, at least in their own eyes, are completely nonpartisan in their work: They don’t “get political.” They don’t think about, let alone challenge, the ideology built into their techniques. Contrary to popular images of scientists as challengers of established beliefs (like Galileo or Einstein), the vast majority of scientists never seek to test their paradigms and do not participate in paradigm disputes. They don’t waste their employers’ coin by getting caught up in efforts to overthrow existing worldviews or to establish new ones. Instead, they tend to treat the accepted models of reality as reality itself.” (p82)
From a Jeff Schmidt interview at http://www.julesnyquist.com/articles/article/1430100/16489.htm
“MR: When you first thought of writing this book, you were in graduate school, right?
JS: Yes, that’s right. I got interested [in the] topic when I was going to professional training myself, getting a PhD in physics at the University of California, Irvine. It seemed like the best of my fellow graduate students were either dropping out or being kicked out. And by ‘best,’ those were the most concerned about other people and seemed less self-centered, less narrowly-focused, most friendly people … they seemed to be handicapped in the competition. They seemed to be at a disadvantage not only because their attention was divided, but because their concerns about big picture issues like justice and the social role of the profession and so on, caused them to stop and think and question, whereas their unquestioning gung-ho classmates just plowed right through with nothing to hold them back. As I mentioned, there’s about a 50% drop-out rate for students entering University programs in all fields; and what I found was that this weeding out is not politically neutral. To put it bluntly, the programs favor ass-kissers.”
Does any of this sound familiar?
“At the end of the week the entire physics faculty gathers in a closed meeting to decide the fate of the students. Strange as it may seem, in most physics departments a student’s score on the test is only one factor in the faculty’s decision as to whether or not that student has passed the test. Students are not usually told their scores: this gives faculty members the option of deciding that a student has failed the test even if that student has outscored someone they are going to pass. In arriving at their personal opinions on whether to pass or fail a student, individual faculty members consider anything and everything carried away from informal discussions with the student and with others around the department.
A faculty member who talks informally with a student in the hallway or at the weekly after-colloquium reception inevitably comes away with a feeling about whether or not that student ‘thinks like a physicist.’ The student’s political outlook can easily make a difference in the faculty member’s assessment. For example, in the usual informal discussion of an issue in the news, the student who rails against technical incompetence and confines his thoughts to the search for technical solutions within the given political framework builds a much more credible image as a professional physicist than does the student who emphasizes the need to alter the political framework as part of the solution. Indeed, the latter approach falls outside the work assignments given to professional physicists in industry and academe and so represents thinking unlike a physicist’s.” (p134)
The question which the public never seems to quite ask is what the meaning of scientific consensus is when students who might disagree with it are simply purged from the programs?

December 26, 2013 11:03 pm

Chris Reeve says:
December 26, 2013 at 10:59 pm
Real critical thinking means uncovering and questioning social, political and moral assumptions;
None of which are relevant for science.

Tiburon
December 27, 2013 12:13 am

lsvalgaard says: –
Thank you, Dr Svalgaard
1) yes, I’ve come to ‘understand’ that a central issue between EU and conventional astrophysics circles around the relationship between magnetic fields and electrical currents, and whether the former can exist in absence of the latter, sort of ‘cart vs horse’ issue…
I appreciate your clear explanation of the ‘conventional position’ regards acceleration of particles from the sun, as it potentially forms a basis whereby I can examine the postulates of the EU writings I come across: – Do they actually directly address this element and bring forward ‘falsifiable’ theory to offer cogent alternative explanations!? (albeit that as I understand it, the EU folk are still in process of designing scalable laboratory experiments to address this. Funding such, is another hurdle for them, though should they achieve funding doesn’t indicate anything regards ‘results’, of course. I suppose we’ll see, eventually, either way – many of the leading proponents seem very sober and serious about tackling these basic solar physics questions)
2) I saw after your kind and direct answers to Bob Weber preceding my earlier comment and somewhat regretted my comments about your ‘attitude’ in your responses to some others, in my posting. – I realize that there are longstanding debates around solar issues here, as it impacts our earthly weather most specifically, and that there must be a lot of ‘history’ between those of strong opinions with some degree of scientific background and yourself. Unfortunately I couldn’t ‘map’ the positions of the various posters here, and also see that some folk are very confrontational with you without bringing forward much of substance.
I’ve experienced the same in the past in other forums, politics, history, and ID most specifically. It can be very frustrating, dealing with the committed and vociferous ‘misinformed’…
All the Best to you in the New Year
David S.
ps: – If you’ve not come across the work of Professor Gerald Pollack at U of Washington with water as a dipole factoring into cloud and thunderstorm formation, I believe you might find it intriguing – it certainly seems to add a significant possible element to our understanding of what drives weather, with possibly many implications for electrical energy circulation throughout the atmosphere. And there seems to be some exciting data coming to the table regards solar hydrogen in the ‘wind’ possibly interacting with O2 erupting off the ionosphere at the thermopause – Starwater, if you will, and a partial explanation of the seemingly ubiquitous presence of H2O where never before expected in our solar system, and well beyond. Exciting times of discovery, IMHO.

December 27, 2013 12:48 am

lsvalgaard says:
Bob Weber says:
December 26, 2013 at 7:56 am
how those solar particles accelerate from the sun to the edge of heliosphere and beyond. What forces are at play there? Why don’t they slow down and stop somewhere sooner?
The solar wind is accelerated to supersonic speed because of gravity weakening with distance. Same principle as in a deLaval rocket nozzle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Laval_nozzle
And so where is the throat of the nozzle?

Tiburon
December 27, 2013 1:02 am

lsvalgaard says:
December 26, 2013 at 11:03 pm
Chris Reeve says:
December 26, 2013 at 10:59 pm
Real critical thinking means uncovering and questioning social, political and moral assumptions;
None of which are relevant for science.
– – – – – –
Dr. Svalgaard: – I must demure. My nephew is now out of Stanford and other post-grad work at MIT, and working (at very impressive pay) for the Defence Industry, sharing (w/o details) that some of the breakthroughs with which he is involved have major implications for social control by the Establishment. How can he divorce his career and research decisions, as a scientist, from the social, political and moral assumptions. Not judging, just asking?
Doesn’t your statement imply that simply by achieving a certain level of peer acceptance ‘as a scientist’ one is exempt from the strictures that maintain the social compact? {And here I must agree with Chris Reeve in regards the often utter lack of education and training in the Humanities among many scientists} I don’t buy it, if so – because it sounds all-too-much like that hackneyed quote: – “I was only following orders”…etc. (not invoking ‘Godwin’s Law’, mark you 😉 )
My post- studies were interdisciplinary – and I’ve certainly come to believe that compartmentalization in science has potential to lead to presently unimaginable horrors, not for ‘others’, but for ourselves, our families and loved ones. Science is not ‘an end unto itself’ – in my opinion. It is an exploration of the mystery of our existence wherein the ‘scientist’ has responsibility to represent, via his talent and skill in the ‘scientific method’, the interests and curiosity of collective humanity. To me, this cannot proceed without the individual scientist integrating his social, political and moral assumptions within the course of his research, especially as we advance in our abilities to self-immolate. These aspects of ‘humanity’ are integral to what it means to be a scientist, the responsibility unavoidable.
In the alternative, the rest of society would have the full right to deny access to tools to those scientists who do not feel this representative responsibility. Would you feel comfortable being so examined before being funded or let near work in your discipline?
I’m quite certain you would not. Nor do I believe for an instant that you do not fully engage your perspective over social, political and moral assumptions each and every day in your work. Those scientists who do not are in my opinion like reckless children who have broken into their parents’ gun cabinet (and likely insane; socio or psychopathic) – they need to be disarmed.
As to those scientists, and we see them all too evident and frequently within the CAGW community, whose temperament and immature and untrained thinking processes allow them to project their social, political, and moral assumptions on to others, compromising their scientific integrity to achieve those ends in the process? They can battle it out with those scientists with clearer balance and recognition of their own inherent biases who do not deviate from their principal mandate to honestly present data and research postulates: – While scientific debate is still allowed, they’ll be sorted out soon enough, or sooner or later.

Tiburon
December 27, 2013 1:10 am

Brant Ra says:
December 27, 2013 at 12:48 am
….And so where is the throat of the nozzle?
Might that be at the Z-Pinch? 😉

December 27, 2013 2:17 am

Tiburon says:
and that there must be a lot of ‘history’ between those of strong opinions with some degree of scientific background and yourself. Unfortunately I couldn’t ‘map’ the positions of the various posters here, and also see that some folk are very confrontational with you without bringing forward much of substance.
In case you are alluding to my longstanding exchanges with Dr. S, my position is an easy one to ‘map’. As an engineer in the decades past, now with some time to spare, I for fun and personal enjoyment and possible peripheral information to others, comb through data from half a dozen or so reputable institution, and plot on the same time base.
More often than not no physical mechanism for possible link is postulated, but many may assume that I imply existence of one.
At qualification of what is shown in this link
is indeed scary whenever it rears its ugly head. The purveyors of such are providing a deplorable shadowy disservice.
despite a great respect I have for Dr. S, I look at with a light-hearted amusements (previous attributes include: incapable of learning, extreme cyclomaniac, man of superior ignorance and a danger to society), however I do not subscribe to the EU ideas and strictly keep out.

December 27, 2013 5:26 am

Tiburon says:
December 27, 2013 at 1:02 am
Science is not ‘an end unto itself’ – in my opinion. It is an exploration of the mystery of our existence wherein the ‘scientist’ has responsibility to represent, via his talent and skill in the ‘scientific method’, the interests and curiosity of collective humanity. To me, this cannot proceed without the individual scientist integrating his social, political and moral assumptions within the course of his research, especially as we advance in our abilities to self-immolate. These aspects of ‘humanity’ are integral to what it means to be a scientist, the responsibility unavoidable.
I most strongly disagree. We all have the same responsibilities as individuals, but science itself should – must – proceed without regard to social, political, or moral assumptions, otherwise these become limits and borders.

Pamela Gray
December 27, 2013 6:31 am

Re: social morality and scientific pursuit. Indeed they become dangerously entwined unless completely barred from cohabitation in search of scientific knowledge and exploration. The human brain is fully equipped to bring open doors as well as limits to the search for scientific knowledge at great peril to Earth and all that resides here. To think otherwise is symbolic of our naive habits of thought.

Pamela Gray
December 27, 2013 6:37 am

To wit: great advances have been made in disease management because we now understand evolutionary connections between humans and primates and we use that knowledge to explore disease. Yet many “socially moral” scientists and politicians would have barred such understandings.

December 27, 2013 7:08 am

Scientific research should have no limits; application of the results is responsibility of the powers to be.

David Ball
December 27, 2013 7:34 am

Dogma is as “dangerous” as pseudo-science. Those who engage in either do not believe that is what they are doing. IMHO, dogmatic entrenchment has done more harm, than “pseudo-science”.

December 27, 2013 7:42 am

David Ball says:
December 27, 2013 at 7:34 am
Dogma is as “dangerous” as pseudo-science. Those who engage in either do not believe that is what they are doing. IMHO, dogmatic entrenchment has done more harm, than “pseudo-science”.
How do you define ‘dogma’? I know hundreds of scientists personally, and have never encountered one who was ‘dogmatic’ [in my view of what that means]. I have met many who are wrong, mistaken, pig-headed, mendacious, egotistical, etc [the list of human foibles is long], but ‘dogmatic’? Never.

Jim G
December 27, 2013 7:47 am

lsvalgaard says:
“I most strongly disagree. We all have the same responsibilities as individuals, but science itself should – must – proceed without regard to social, political, or moral assumptions, otherwise these become limits and borders.”
Right on that one, Leif, the real problem becomes, whose concepts of “social, political, or moral assumptions” will run the show. Bad idea. Like communism/socialism/facism or what passes for democracy in many countries, or any other control oriented government, the espoused goals may sound and “feel” good but the controllers inevitably get out of control. The majority of people always seem willing to trade their freedom for promises of security which they never receive. Kind of like keeping us safe from the nonexistent threat of gloabal warming.

RockyRoad
December 27, 2013 7:50 am

The book The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich describes “social morality and scientific pursuit” becoming dangerously entwined.
Social morality should learn from scientific pursuit, but should never be its master. The consequences are often devastating when it does.

Jim G
December 27, 2013 8:08 am

RockyRoad says:
December 27, 2013 at 7:50 am
“The book The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich describes “social morality and scientific pursuit” becoming dangerously entwined.
Social morality should learn from scientific pursuit, but should never be its master. The consequences are often devastating when it does.”
I do not believe there is any such thing as “social morality”, individual morality, yes, but as a group people show their ignorance and weakness, the average IQ being what it is, by rushing to the best liars and scam artists, be they politicians or religous leaders. And again, always being willing to believe the lie which makes them feel most comfotable.

Jim G
December 27, 2013 8:09 am

Please excuse my poor typing.

Jim G
December 27, 2013 8:19 am

A good example of believing the lie is the very concept that we insect sized creatures crawling around on the 30% of our planet which is not covered by water are somehow significantly impacting climate change which has been going on for eons and further believing that given the vast natural processes involved we could do anything about that perpetual changing of of climate.

Bob Weber
December 27, 2013 8:29 am

Dr. Svalgaard, if you don’t mind a few more questions…
Why is the escape velocity temperature for “lighter” electrons so much higher than the “heavier” protons? Are there any times when temperatures are lower than 1.5 million K when protons would leave the sun in higher proportions than electrons (if the temperature isn’t high enough for electrons to escape)? Do the satellites measure electron speeds, proton speeds, and relative proportions separately?
Moving on, from wikipedia:
“A Van Allen radiation belt is one of at least two layers of energetic charged particles (plasma) that is held in place around the planet Earth by the planet’s magnetic field. The belts extend from an altitude of about 1,000 to 60,000 kilometers above the surface in which region radiation levels vary. Most of the particles that form the belts are thought to come from solar wind and other particles by cosmic rays.[1] The belts are named after their discoverer, James Van Allen, and are located in the inner region of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The belts contain energetic electrons that form the outer belt and a combination of protons and electrons that form the inner belt.”
Question: Why do the Van Allen belts exist and persist? What are the mechanisms? Isn’t there charge separation between the negative electrons in the outer belt and the positive protons in the inner belt, and if so, why isn’t that considered a type of “double layer”? Wouldn’t the ever-present solar wind continually load-up the belts with electrons and protons into ever higher densities? What do these electrons and protons do, and where do they go as the layer densities build-up?
Further, you said:
“Once the solar wind has escaped it doesn’t really slow down until it meets the interstellar medium [some 110 times the distance from the Sun to the Earth] at which point the velocity indeed will slow to 0 km/sec.”
If the electrons and protons slow down to 0 km/sec, wouldn’t they build-up at the heliospheric boundary, in a similar fashion as they apparently do in the Van Allen belts, along with neutral hydrogen atoms? If so, how do they behave when they build-up at the heliospheric boundary?
As you were saying here,
“The IEF is purely a local effect created when the solar wind hits the Earth’s magnetic field: positive charges are deflected one way around the Earth, and negative charges are deflected the other way. The resulting electric current neutralizes/closes by flowing through the ionosphere giving rise to aurorae and associated magnetic disturbances.”
Is it not conceivable that there exists a heliospheric magnetosphere like the earth’s magnetosphere? If so, wouldn’t the electrons and protons deflect into opposite directions around the heliosphere like they do around the earth, and wouldn’t that result in an electric current around the heliosphere, and if so, wouldn’t it neutralize/close at the sun’s poles? If not, where and how?

December 27, 2013 8:58 am

Here I compare two sets of data:
Atlantic Multidecadal Osculation and the number of major tectonic events recorded in the far North Atlantic
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AMO-NAT.htm
Since it was not considered elsewhere it can not be said that causal link exist, equally it can not be summarily dismissed.
Apparent correlation can be considered as a coincidence, or it can be considered as numerology, but is it pseudoscience?
Exclusions: Pseudoscience does not include most obsolete scientific or medical theories, nor does it include every idea that currently lacks sufficient scientific evidence.
Patently, Dr. Svalgaard dismissal as ‘pseudoscience’ doesn’t hold.

December 27, 2013 9:00 am

Bob Weber says:
December 27, 2013 at 8:29 am
if you don’t mind a few more questions…
Sounds like you are fishing for confirmation of some wishful thinking 🙂
Why is the escape velocity temperature for “lighter” electrons so much higher than the “heavier” protons?
Those temperatures are for the place where the solar wind escapes and electrons are lighter and thus easier to get to move faster [=higher temp.], but temperature is a measure of random movements, not in any specific direction [as away from the Sun].
Do the satellites measure electron speeds, proton speeds, and relative proportions separately?
Generally not, as the instruments are often built to measure specific properties.
Question: Why do the Van Allen belts exist and persist? What are the mechanisms?
If you inject charged particles into space around a magnetic dipole, there are orbits in which the particles can get trapped. While being so, they bounce back and forth between the north and south poles.
isn’t that considered a type of “double layer”?
Double layers separate plasmas with different properties and are very thin. In the magnetosphere a double layer would only be a few hundred meters thick. The Van Allen Belts are not double layers.
Wouldn’t the ever-present solar wind continually load-up the belts with electrons and protons into ever higher densities? What do these electrons and protons do, and where do they go as the layer densities build-up?
Particles are continuously lost from the Belts, by collisions and by interactions with various types of waves, so have only a limited lifetime in the belts.
If the electrons and protons slow down to 0 km/sec, wouldn’t they build-up at the heliospheric boundary
They do build up a bit [into something called the Hydrogen Wall], but since the heliosphere is moving ]at about 20 km/sec] with respect to the interstellar medium, the stopped solar wind is eventually blown away [like smoke from a chimney when there is a wind blowing].
Is it not conceivable that there exists a heliospheric magnetosphere like the earth’s magnetosphere? If so, wouldn’t the electrons and protons deflect into opposite directions around the heliosphere like they do around the earth, and wouldn’t that result in an electric current around the heliosphere,
The heliosphere is a kind of ‘solar system magnetosphere’ seen from the view of the interstellar medium, but a much more dynamic beast as the direction of the magnetic field changes every week or so leaving little room for organized structures.
wouldn’t it neutralize/close at the sun’s poles? If not, where and how?
Particles cannot travel ‘upstream’ in the solar wind as the wind is highly ‘supersonic’ [at Earth the ‘Mach Number’ is about 10.

December 27, 2013 10:10 am

vukcevic says:
December 27, 2013 at 8:58 am
Apparent correlation can be considered as a coincidence, or it can be considered as numerology, but is it pseudoscience?
It is pseudo-science when the correlation is presented without clear description of the variables, without analysis of errors, and without estimate of statistical significance. As usual, you qualify on all points.

December 27, 2013 11:03 am

lsvalgaard says:
December 27, 2013 at 10:10 am

Variables are there and the actual numbers will be published, then anyone can do statistics, if so inclined; however statistical analysis of errors and estimate of statistical significance do not make any difference either there is a causal link or there is not !
Reserving judgment is one thing (expected from a true sceptical scientist) but suggesting that one day it is monster that rears its ugly head…. providing a deplorable shadowy disservice and the next respectable science is a judgment of no value.
Have a happy new year.

Chris Reeve
December 27, 2013 11:07 am

Re: “Real critical thinking means uncovering and questioning social, political and moral assumptions;
None of which are relevant for science.”
It’s perhaps not surprising that things like values lose their appeal when mathematics becomes the only way to judge ideas in science. Mathematics values accuracy. Critical and creative thinking are thrown away because they quite obviously fail to service accuracy. This is the same approach to science that was on display at the Bad Astronomy and Universe Today (BAUT) forum. It’s the perfect system for killing innovation in science, and it’s lack of any philosophical complexity makes it palatable to middle schoolers. This worldview might have been a solution to problems which you faced when you were growing up, but today, critical and creative problem-solving are becoming the more pressing need.
Hopefully I am not the first to tell you this, but your description of science is not a vision for the future of science which the larger public will ever accept. You’ve honestly taken the specialist physicist training too far for most people to relate to. Just as a philosopher cannot understand science by only studying philosophy, neither can a physicist come to understand how he taints his own inferences and observations without cultivating the broadest education available to him. The unfortunate fact that many people don’t learn until it’s too late is that the choices we make about what to ignore tend to largely determine the conclusions we arrive at — as well as how useful they are in the real world.
And just to be clear, this desire which artificially motivates you (and many others) to reduce the number of cosmological options to choose from is a fundamental observation in psychology which relates to both how people buy things they are unfamiliar with and how people choose scientific models they are unfamiliar with. There is in truth no pressing need to reduce our cosmological options. This is your subconscious simply exerting pressure on you to reduce the number of choices to have to learn about, because it takes effort to learn about them.
One more thing: There is no philosophical sense whatsoever to pursuing an ad hoc approach to the conventional models to the point where you are left with only 5% baryonic matter, while simultaneously refusing to investigate whether cosmic plasma might simply behave as the laboratory plasma — in that both exhibit E-fields, a minute electrical resistance, pinches, Birkeland Currents, and so on. The argument that you and others like Tom Bridgman put forth for the public takes advantage of the fact that the public doesn’t generally understand what a plasma is, how they are modeled, and how these models differ from what we see in the laboratory. The BAUT way is to position this as not even something which people should investigate, as if the idea that cosmic plasmas and laboratory plasmas might operate on the basis of the same principles is just a completely preposterous idea.
Which aspect of the scientific methodology convinced you to invite others to refuse to question assumptions? The Jeff Schmidt quotes are critical for the public’s attempts to understand where this worldview comes from, insofar as they demonstrate that these are cultural cues which are being taught today at all of our universities in order to create workers who have assignable curiosity. Large organizations need thinkers who can work within an assigned context, so universities train physicists to refuse to question the social, political and moral assumptions that go into their work. If it was any other way, scientific and technological progress would tend to be marked by upheaval.
Leif, scientists (in theory at least) opt for forced induction — we try all possibilities, with the consequence that many will knowingly turn out to be failures — rather than free induction, what animals do, because it’s a faster way to arrive at the answer. But, the history of science appears to be littered with obstructionists who very plainly seem to be allergic to the rate of change which this worldview naturally leads to. Leif, if you love science as much as you claim to, then realize that part of the implication of science is that it leads to rapid change, and that this necessarily means that many of our most cherished ideas will inevitably fail to lead anywhere. If you’ve never asked yourself that question about Dark Matter — as seems to be the case — then you’re not engaging the subject of science at the level that most of the people around you already are.
Re: “How do you define ‘dogma’? I know hundreds of scientists personally, and have never encountered one who was ‘dogmatic’ [in my view of what that means]. I have met many who are wrong, mistaken, pig-headed, mendacious, egotistical, etc [the list of human foibles is long], but ‘dogmatic’? Never.
The very point of the danger of dogma is that it tends to be invisible to our rational minds.

December 27, 2013 11:22 am

Chris Reeve says:
December 27, 2013 at 11:07 am
It’s perhaps not surprising that things like values lose their appeal when mathematics becomes the only way to judge ideas in science. Mathematics values accuracy. Critical and creative thinking are thrown away because they quite obviously fail to service accuracy.
This is totally wrong. The only real judge in science is whether observations agree with theory [and especially with predictions made with such]. Science is the embodiment of the utmost critical thinking and progress depends on creative thinking [constrained by the reality of observations].
But, the history of science appears to be littered with obstructionists who very plainly seem to be allergic to the rate of change which this worldview naturally leads to. Leif, if you love science as much as you claim to, then realize that part of the implication of science is that it leads to rapid change, and that this necessarily means that many of our most cherished ideas will inevitably fail to lead anywhere.
Any scientist worth his salt wants to change the prevailing worldview, and all realize that beneath our most cherished theories lies yet another layer of ‘truth’ waiting to be discovered. Where you go wrong is to assume that “our most cherished ideas will inevitably fail to lead anywhere”. On the contrary, we proceed to the deeper layers from the bedrock of the current ones.
danger of dogma is that it tends to be invisible to our rational minds
It is obviously clearly visible to those who accuse others of being dogmatic, so you are not quite consistent here.
As I said before, you can only criticize that of which you have sufficient knowledge.