WUWT’s resident solar expert Dr. Leif Svalgaard (and others) says ‘None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle’ and the panel he was on talk about the current state of our solar cycle at the AGU Fall Meeting.
Here is Dr. Svalgaard’s current SSN plot:
Watch the video, Leif is on the left hand side.
At this year’s Fall Meeting of American Geophysical Union, held in San Francisco that I attended, prominent solar scientists made a presentation on weak Solar Cycle 24 and its consequences. They included:
- Nat Gopalswamy, astrophysicist, Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
- Leif Svalgaard, senior research scientist, W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, California
- Marty Mlynczak, senior research scientist, Climate Science Branch, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
- Joe Giacalone, professor and associate director, Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
They agreed that the current solar cycle is on track to be the weakest in 100 years and that is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the Sun during this period. While the weak solar cycle trend is not new for the Sun, it is new and interesting for scientists who observe and measure it today with modern instruments and methods.
In this panel, scientists examined the current solar cycle in relation to past cycles and discuss the consequences of the weak solar cycle on the various layers regions between the Sun and Earth, including implications for space weather, atmosphere and climate.
Here is part of the press release package:
Solar signatures and Heliospheric Consequences of the Weak Activity Cycle 24
Nat Gopalswamy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771,
The Sun in the middle of its activity maximum that is relatively weak. The maximum phase ended in the northern hemisphere of the Sun and began about a year ago in the south.
The weak activity of cycle 24 is thought to be due to the weak polar magnetic field in cycle 23. If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles, the Sun may be heading for a global minimum.
Whether global minimum or not, the weak solar cycle has resulted in milder space weather: there are not many large geomagnetic storms and the energetic particle events are also generally of lower intensity. The milder space weather also reduces the drag on satellites and it is easy to keep them in orbit. On the other hand the space debris also have longer life, posing increased collision threat to operating satellites.
The weak solar activity in terms of the sunspot number did not quite translate into the CME rate itself. The CME occurrence rate in cycles 24 and 23 are comparable in the maximum phase. Then how do we understand the mild space weather in cycle 24?
A clue to the reason for milder space weather came from the fact that all CMEs that produced particle events are halo CMEs in cycle 24, compared to about 70% in cycle 23. Halo CMEs originate from close to the disk center and expand rapidly and give the appearance of surrounding the Sun. There must be something different about the size of the CMEs in SC 24.
Gopalswamy and co-‐workers examined the relation between CME width and speed and found that the cycle 24 CMEs are wider than the cycle 23 ones for a given speed. For energetic CMEs (speed exceeding 1000 km/s), the width is higher by about 40%.
When they examined the total pressure (magnetic pressure + plasma pressure) in the heliosphere from measurements made by spacecraft such as ACE and Wind, they found that the pressure decreased by an astonishing 40% in cycle 24. From this they inferred that the pressure must drop by a similar amount near the Sun. CMEs released into this low-‐pressure medium, expand more than usual, resulting in weaker fields, and hence weaker geomagnetic storms. The magnetic field strength in CMEs decides the intensity of geomagnetic storms.
As far the particle radiation, the situation is a bit more complicated. The reduced total pressure means a slight increase in the Alfven speed in the heliosphere. The Alfven speed is the characteristic speed of the medium. A CME needs to be faster than the Alfven speed to drive a shock that accelerates particles.
Therefore, it is slightly easier for the cycle 24 CMEs to drive shocks. However, the shocks are propagating through a medium of reduced magnetic field, which is known to be less conducive for accelerating particles to high energies. This means the number of particle events is not very low, but the events are generally of lower intensity and energy.
Here are other parts of the press release. Source: AGU
About correlation not being causation.
With the Sun, since we can’t do a controlled experiment, we are stuck with correlation implying causation.
I think it is an intellectual mistake to say that until we understand the mechanism, we cannot infer causation. Darwin deduced evolution from natural selection from his observations. He couldn’t do a controlled experiment. And, he couldn’t explain how beneficial traits were passed to the offspring. He didn’t know about DNA. But, that didn’t stop him. He was off course reviled by many, who noted that he had a big gaping hole in this theory.
Stone age farmers created all our major food crops from selective breeding, even though they had no idea how these traits were inherited.
So, let’s just follow the facts. The theories can catch up later.
To Leif: thanks for your answer,
Johm
Joel, we have lots of facts already. We can measure all kinds of things. And physics gives us several avenues into testing energy required to do things. For example, cloud chamber experiments reveals how much solar driven “seeding” is required to make the kind of changes needed in actual clouds to make a difference in temperature trends (so far the experimental effect is so small as to be barely measurable, let alone capable of causing actual cloud seeding to occur such that temperature trends are affected). If our real-life in-situ hypothetical driver demonstrates a decided lack of such power, we need to seek some other driver.
Addendum: What is quite powerful is the persistence demonstrated by both anthropogenic CO2 and solar variability enthusiasts in beating dead horses.
No, because that pressure is exceedingly minute.
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“The milder space weather also reduces the drag on satellites and it is easy to keep them in orbit.”
Even the smallest of forces acting over time can have profound effect.
at 11:58 DocWat asked about “Hell” and now it is morning and no answer has been given. Maybe it was the “group of students” part that caused the void. My guess is the Doc is looking for a specific post on the Livingston and Penn research.
Searching here on WUWT with the names reveals many posts and this one comes close to “… Hope To Hell It’s Not True” sought by DocWat.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/
First line is:
From the “I hope to God they are flat wrong department”, here is the abstract of a short …
Big thanks from me too, Dr. Svalgaard. Yer da man..
Some interesting points from the conference for me,
The way that halo CME’s propagate during weak cycles, with weaker magnetic fields. And how that effects Ap. How it expands along its width and that it is less efficient in acceleration due to the weak magnetic field.
Seeing the GCR graph with the “overall” aspect even during solar cycle 24’s max.
40% reduction in the heliospheric pressure. My guess was 30% lol..
“”When they examined the total pressure (magnetic pressure + plasma pressure) in the heliosphere from measurements made by spacecraft such as ACE and Wind, they found that the pressure decreased by an astonishing 40% in cycle 24. From this they inferred that the pressure must drop by a similar amount near the Sun. CMEs released into this low-‐pressure medium, expand more than usual, resulting in weaker fields, and hence weaker geomagnetic storms. The magnetic field strength in CMEs decides the intensity of geomagnetic storms.””
Any comments on the 28 1/2 day structure seen in the solar rotation. Comparison between solar cycle 20 and 24? How the flux transport has varied?
M. Opher had an Interstellar Magnetic field modeling presentation at the AGU worth noting. (subtle hint)
And the IRIS presentation shows some spectacular images and movies on solar flows..pretty cool details. Are you hoping IRIS will be used in mapping flows around “sectors and boundarys?”
Andres Valencia says:
December 13, 2013 at 7:58 pm
Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age
Habibullo Abdussamatov. November 25, 2013
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That’s a pretty DIRE looking projection (prediction) in the graphs of Figure 1
Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age
Habibullo Abdussamatov. November 25, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/grand_minimum.pdf
Figure 1. Variations of both the TSI and solar activity in 1978-2013 and prognoses of these variations to cycles 24-27 until 2045. The arrow indicates the beginning of the new Little Ice Age epoch after the maximum of cycle 24.
Pamela Gray says:
December 14, 2013 at 8:10 am
I for one just can’t find a variable solar mechanism with that kind of watts per square meter muscle to drive a temperature trend measured at our planet’s surface.
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how does the very small force a child delivers to a swing result in such a large motion? If one calculates the energy required to lift the child an equivalent distance vertically it is enormous.
If one simply looks at the trend while the child is swinging upwards, what we see is impossible. It is only when the trend is examined as part of an oscillation that the truth becomes revealed.
vukcevic says:
December 14, 2013 at 8:16 am
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Less drag on the Earth from high speed CME’s and such..
Less drag Earth rotates faster..
Remember Earth’s field is on a steady decline..
It’s going to be very interesting to see the effects of a centennial-low solar cycle and a possible Grand Solar Minimum starting from SC25 in 2020.
It seems that we’re already experiencing the effects of diminishing solar activity with no warming trend for 17 years, 1000’s of low-temp records broken, record global snow extents, record Antarctic ice extents, record low Arctic summer temps, etc.,
If these cold phenomena and falling/flat temperature trends continue during low solar activity, it seems logical the CAGW hypothesis must be abandoned soon, especially with record amounts of CO2 emissions being broken.
The CAGW hypothesis assumes solar flux has little effect on climate and that CO2 is the magical master control knob of Earth’s climate… Not so much… The strongest 63-year string of solar cycles in 11,400 years occurred from 1933~1996, so if the warmunists try to blame recent cold events on low solar activity, then they also have to admit 20th century warming was primarily due to strong solar cycles. Although the warmunists often try, they can’t have their cake and eat it, too..
I do think the sheeple are starting to get it
http://www.space.com/23934-weak-solar-cycle-space-weather.html
When I look at the data I see a small solar influence. The bottom of the LIA was reached in the 1500s. From there it should have started warming but that appeared to be delayed somewhat by the Maunder minimum. The Dalton cooling and early 20th century cooling also show up during weak solar activity. However, solar is not the big kahuna. It is not the cause of the RWP, the MWP or the LIA. And, it is not the cause of the modern warming period.
The main cause is changes in the MOC speed. When the MOC speeds up it brings cold water to the surface as a faster rate (and sequesters warm surface water). When it slows down the opposite occurs. The speed of the MOC is controlled by density differences within the oceans. ON top of that we see the ~30 year cycle of the PDO/AMO which is stronger but shorter in duration. The combination of the MOC and these “stadium wave” ocean oscillations can explain everything over the last 2000 years.
Note how this supports RACook’s description of the warming and cooling over time. While the sun has a small, temporary affect, it does not persist. In general, small solar changes are buffered into our massive oceans making it very difficult to isolate them.
When might the sun in its orbit have more drag (resistance) time?
From the outside in .. changes in the outer rings of a vortex .. uh stuck
the pressure is less than that under the foot of spider
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the pressure under an old style phonograph needle is twice that of the deepest ocean. the gravitational force of the Milky Way is minute, yet I’m unable to escape from orbit.
Pamela Gray says:
December 14, 2013 at 8:49 am
Addendum: What is quite powerful is the persistence demonstrated by both anthropogenic CO2 and solar variability enthusiasts in beating dead horses.
………….
Neither of two are dead horses, your hero Dr. LS is realistic and does say that CO2 and solar cycles have a role, however the extent of either is not adequate, but that is only one opinion. Some of us will listen and learn as necessary but don’t take for granted words of any man whoever it may be.
Regarding persistence here are two quotes from someone who knew failure and success (none lesser than that half American, Winston Churchill):
“Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm.”
“If you have an important point to make, don’t try to be subtle or clever. Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. Then come back and hit it again.”
eeek CO2 not being heated up like it used to eeek
phodges says:
“You can tell me again it’s not the Sun, but I suspect there is more than TSI affecting the Earth. As climate is a sum of weather, maybe we should look at what constitutes weather and start thinking how the Earth’s interaction with the Sun contributes to that – ocean temps, jet stream locations, teleconnections, etc…”
E.g. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117713005802
Seems everyone beat around it and some hit it. In summery.
Two small cycles in a row and some climate lag- Global warming will restart 2035.
Good time to correlate sunspot activity to earthquake activity.
Hurricane seasons will decline.
Winters will grow longer. Winters without summers eventually.
Drought will continue thru 2033.
First phase will compare to 1962 to 1979 weather data.
Large amount of crop lost which means less exports and more suffering overseas; beginning food shortages will create a worldwide food Black market.
Large numbers of Cattle and various farm animals will be lost and hopefully some creativity in deer and elk herding will take place. More he gardens home farm animals will return to urban and suburban life. Lost 20,000 head of cattle and numerous horses, sheep and lambs in South Dakota due to a snow blizzard, October 4, 2013.
There Is already an increase in the lost in human life due to drought, cold and wars in recent years.
I receive about 15 Google news Alerts a day and drought, And lost of human and farm animals also are increasing and great amounts of lost food is taking place.
From An historical perspective, what is ahead through 2035 is what I call “The Thinning of The Herd”.
Most Sincerely,
Paul Pierett
lsvalgaard says:
December 14, 2013 at 8:06 am
John says:
December 14, 2013 at 7:50 am
Do you know of any mechanism, including hypothetical, by which less total pressure might translate into a change in temperatures on Earth?
No, because that pressure is exceedingly minute. In the corona, the pressure is less than that under the foot of spider crawling across your palm and at the Earth that pressure has decreased ten thousand times.
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excuse me..
Could we take that out distance to like lets say Pluto. Or.. Voyager 1, like shrinking out of the heliosphere.
distant effects will be greater though
Leif,
What went into the selection of of cycle 14 as the example of what cycle 24 appears to be like? There are obviously several earlier ones shown on your slide which appeared to be similar. Was it merely the most recent of these with the most data available or was it the best correlation of wiggles or were other factors involved which were not mentioned?
thought from the deep end.
If manmade CO2 contribution is no longer being warmed from sun..
I would not want to be a Russian living N. of China or India when the CO2 is cold.
the pressure is less than that under the foot of spider
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the pressure under an old style phonograph needle is twice that of the deepest ocean. the gravitational force of the Milky Way is minute, yet I’m unable to escape from orbit.
==========
Yep. And electrons drift at low cm/s speeds in wires, creating a magnetic field which is explained as a relativistic effect.
Anyone that’s wrapped a wire around a nail and attached a battery has seen relativistic effects.
DocWat says:
December 13, 2013 at 11:58 pm
John Hultquist answered this, I’ll add a bit more, as the topic is my all time favorite thing I’ve learned here. Leif brought this to our attention and frequently notes things are still going pretty much as anticipated. The straight line decline is leveling out a bit, but that may be because we’re already missing some sunspots.
From “Ric Werme’s Guide to WUWT” (See link in the right side nav bar):
Looks like it’s about time I check for recent updates, perhaps when it’s clear we’re on the downside of SC24.
Ulric Lyons says:
December 14, 2013 at 9:23 am
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So much to do and read .. so little time ..
Thanks Ulrich but that one deserved its abstract put up front and center..
Not to mention its title and authors…
Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes
Limin Zhoua, Brian Tinsleyb, Jing Huanga
Available online 21 September 2013
Abstract
Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.
I would imagine Stephen Wilde and Vuks might be intrigued…
Bill ILLIS
Your comments about past coolestperiods
I have been looking at possible causes other than reduced solar activity for the CET temperature drops during past major solar minimums
Graph below is a detrended historical plot of the sea surface temperature anomalies (HADSST3) for the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins from pole to pole The peaks and valleys of this plot match the peaks and valleys of global atmospheric cooling and warming periods over the last 130 years . The surface temperatures of these oceans have peaked and are again heading for a cold trough by about 2040/2045 like they did 1910 and 1975
Courtesy of Bob Tisdale’s and WUWT web pages
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/figure-72.png
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/17/a-quick-look-at-the-hadgem2-es-simulations-of-sea-surface-temperatures/
If we hind cast the above ocean graph and in particular the 70 year Atlantic Ocean SST, pole to pole , we find that major SST troughs like 1905/1910 and 1975 could have also happened in 1835, 1765, 1695 For example the North Atlantic Ocean may have been cooling during the following past periods [And probably the Pacific as well.] based on the 70 year pole to pole cycle The major solar minimum periods are noted. They do match .
1940 to 1975
1870 to 1910[Minimum 1880-1910]
1800 to 1835[Dalton minimum 1790-1820]
1730 to 1765
1660 to 1695 [Maunder minimum 1645-1715]
1590 to 1625
1520 to 1555 [Sporer minimum 1460-1550]
1450 to 1485 [ Sporer minimum 1460-1550]
This could account for much of the cooling noted in the CET records during major solar minimums . These periods are also visible on the following reconstructed North Atlantic SST graph
Courtesy of Bob Tisdale
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.ca/2008/07/sst-reconstructions.html
http://i36.tinypic.com/wld5kl.jpg
In other words a 70 year major oceans SST cycle could be partly [ together with volcanic eruptions] behind the extra cooling noted during historical major solar minimums .