Zeke, Mosher, and Rohde and the new BEST dataset

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L-R Zeke Hausfather, Robert Rhode, Steven Mosher

And here is the poster

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I’ll have more later with a video interview.

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phodges

I applaud BEST for transparency, but they ultimately do the same thing NASA, CRU and the rest do…alter measured temperatures.
I have looked extensively at local temperature series. The raw plots are given but are then altered to match some mythical regional trend. If none of the local stations show that trend, then from where does it come?

Mike Mangan

From the looks of the poster, the United States is on fire, man!

Steve from Rockwood

I love the term homogenized. Just like milk, they remove all the good stuff so whatever is left over will last forever.

Rob Dawg

I have to watch my blood pressure whenever I see “adjustments.” Dedicated people trudging out to a thermometer unceasingly for years back in the 1930s. What would they think if they knew 80 years after their painstaking observations trying to eek out the last 0.1° F from the instruments that people would be adjusting their numbers by several degrees?
What about their blood pressure if they heard any of the excuses? “Yes, you measured a high of 92° but because of urban heat island effects in the 2010s what you really saw was 89°. Trust us.”

Bloke down the pub

Look forward to hearing how it matches up to USCRN.

James Allison

These three musketeers are going to save the world from us.

Damn Steve! You are getting old! 😉

Janice Moore

“… the United States is on fire, man!” (Mike Mangan at 10:20am today)
Lol, yes, indeed. BUT, that was the “Before” panel of graphics.
The “After” (the day after the day after…) panel is: All the warming went north! (note the two hockey sticks in our little graphs above; that means all of Canada is up — in flames) — THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (and especially the Arctic where no one goes much) IS BURNING UP! SEND M-O-N-E-Y NNNOOOOOWWWW!
Sure, this is the message of that poster from 10 feet. How much closer do you think most people will come to it (except to turn their backs on it for a photo op)? Just more propaganda.

Resourceguy

I thought blue was officially banned as a thematic color anyway. It sounds like New Improved Best, as in marketing hype.

Mindert Eiting

If biologists would present to us a homogenized fossil record, we know that they have done something with the data. In that case it is not a data set.

Mike Mangan

Zeke is like, “Why do I always have to get the coffee?”

Oh, so the wonderful Steve M. is ON THE DOLE.

Frank Kotler

For pity’s sake, is the man’s name “Rhode” or “Rohde”? I see alternating spellings all the time, and I’m pretty sure it must be one or the other!

Mosher is OK, one day he’ll leave the CO2 presumption behind and get on to natural variability; when he does I got the data waiting.

Janice Moore

@ Frank Kotler — Well, I have never heard of him, so I just Bing’d his name and if he’s the guy connected with Berkeley Earth, it is Rohde.

Alan Robertson

Mike Mangan says:
December 12, 2013 at 10:20 am
“From the looks of the poster, the United States is on fire, man!”
_____________________
Yes, on fire. Here in the center of the nation, Oklahomans awoke to an egg- frying 18F this morning.

Lest folks forget, here is the BEST graph — before and after “adjustments”.
It seems that BEST has followed the lead of Mann’s Hokey Stick chart.

Mario Lento

dbstealey says:
December 12, 2013 at 11:50 am
Lest folks forget, here is the BEST graph — before and after “adjustments”.
It seems that BEST has followed the lead of Mann’s Hokey Stick chart.
+++++++++
Where’s the source of this data that created the graph? I’d like to learn more about what BEST recent says about AGW, warming cooling etc. It seems Steven Mosher does not believe we are headed for doom

Alan Robertson

James Allison says:
December 12, 2013 at 10:43 am
These three musketeers are going to save the world from us.
_________________________
Swashbuckling fashionistas…

charles nelson

Steven Mosher is actually a real person!
Wow.

There are no adjustments.
There is the raw data if you like crap.
There is qc data
There is breakpoint data.
Then there is the estimated field.
We dont adjust data. We identify breakpoints and slice.
Then we estimate a field.

Mario Lento

Steven Mosher, you do not agree with Rohdes in this video, do you? All and all I’m unclear on your thoughts on CO2 and whether it’s the culprit for the warming.

Rob Dawg says:
December 12, 2013 at 10:30 am
“I have to watch my blood pressure whenever I see “adjustments.” Dedicated people trudging out to a thermometer unceasingly for years back in the 1930s. What would they think if they knew 80 years after their painstaking observations trying to eek out the last 0.1° F from the instruments that people would be adjusting their numbers by several degrees?
Exactly. I was looking into BE to see what they’ve done with one very long record from the Prague Klementinum (uninterrupted since 1775) at BE – which already in the past was absolutely raped and merged with another record from Prague Ruzyne airport by the GISS – even the original record is kept uninterrupted untill very present.
And what do you think?
It was raped even more by the BE and merged with yet another record from Prague-Libus station.
In fact there doesn’t exist any record neither for Prague-Ruzyne, nor Prague-Libus before 1950, yet BerkeleyEarth has it back to 1700s.
Magicians…
What is really funny: the adjustments made to the Prague-Klementinum (made in the past already by the GISS -clearly to get rid of the hot decade 1790-1799) are quite very different than the adjustments done with the Prague-Klementinum+Prague-Ruzyne/Prague-Libus record (just compare this and this(the “PRAHA/RUZYNE U/A TO LIBUS11520” before 1950 it is the Klementinum record – just in the BE they don’t know…).
Which somehow seems to well show what a guessjob is all this.
If they do everything like treating the most valuable historic records their credibility in my opinion tends to simmilar level as that of GISS, moreover they have land only, which is quite unsufficient for global climatology for a planet where more than 2/3rd of the surface is covered by the ocean…

Janice Moore

“We don’t adjust data. … we estimate … .” (S. M0sh-er <– to avoid moderation)
Oh.

Janice Moore

@ Mario Lento — For laughing out loud, that was a FUNNY video!!!
I don’t know how S.M. could agree or disagree — pick a side of the mouth the guy’s talking out of, I guess.
Remark edited off the end (I found it….. somewhere, heh):
So, I know I can count on your vote next November.
(on your lunch break? Have a good one! #(:))

BW2013

Janice,
You beat me to it.
Steve,
Raw data is crap?
What is it after you get done slicing, dicing, and estimating it? Do you add deodorizer to make it smell better?

And now we know things have warmed up a little from the LIA, the coldest time since the Ice Age.
Any more gems?

“We dont adjust data. We identify breakpoints and slice.
Then we estimate a field.” S Mosher quote
…IE interpretation: we don’t adjust data, we just sort of manipulate, alter, change, vary, etc data
Come back to the reality and admit what you are doing!!!

Mario Lento

From Dictionary:
ad·just [uh-juhst]
verb (used with object)
1. to change (something) so that it fits, corresponds, or conforms; adapt; accommodate:
Below, I added my interpretation in (in parenthesis).
Yes – Janice – I am in work, and was checking my private email). Are you running for something in November??
From Steven Mosher:
We identify breakpoints and slice. (or change the data so that it fits) Then we estimate a field (to conform of adapt the sliced piece to accommodate the improved dataset)

Reg Nelson

Steven Mosher says:
There is the raw data if you like crap.
——
I actually agree with this. Anything other than the satellite data is crap and is not suited for the purpose it is being used. It should be thrown in the bin.
Crap data leads to crap results and crap science, no matter how you slice it and dice it. You can put lipstick on pig, but at the end of the day it’s still a pig.

“raw data is crap” S Mosher,
IE: Yes, we don’t want to actually believe that all the observations are real…
…….so we make up our own as we know better that the real data!

Mark Bofill

Sometimes raw data is crap. Is there something noble about including an obviously bogus reading of say 0C from an obviously broken sensor into a temperature average? I hope there’s at least something noble about it, because it certainly isn’t going to improve the scientific result.
I used to wonder why Steven Mosher seemed to delight in posting obnoxious posts here. I’ve long since quit wondering.

MB your post helps nothing here as a few obvious wrong readings have nothing to do with data manipulation at all!

Janice Moore

@ Mario Lento — just my lame attempt at a joke (the guy sounded like a typical politician, to me, heh, heh).
Loved the “sanitized” version of M0-sher’s prevarication. BRAVISSIMO.
Attention Mario Lento’s boss: He is NOT using company resources or time, here!
#(:))
Hope your afternoon goes well.
**************
@ BW — great minds! (less than 4 minutes……. next time! (smile))

NikFromNYC

Three of the oldest continuous running thermometer stations in the world are in the USA, all of which falsify the BEST hockey stick by showing no trend change whatsoever:
http://s24.postimg.org/498mmzb6d/2agnous.gif
Few climate papers are referencing overly convenient, massively-parametrized, data-sliced-and-diced, model-matching BEST, just the 2012 up-adjusted HadCRUT4, the magic pause buster compared to boring old HadCRUT3, care of Phil Jones:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1985/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1985/mean:12
Phil was attributed to a Saudi Arabian university on his paper introducing HadCRUT4, seen here in the land of harems:
http://mpc.kau.edu.sa/Pages-Prof-Philip-Jones.aspx

You mean they couldn’t get Richard or Elizebeth Muller?

Resourceguy

If seismic data was termed crap, no amount of filtering would show anything interesting or not. If financial data was crap, it would…..make a minority of people a lot of money. If economic data was all crap, it would….generate a lot of publications anyway. And, if engineering data was crap, it would injure a lot of people. I suspect climate data is some of all these cases.

Pamela Gray

It’s been hot before. Real thermometers can register hot weather. They can even reflect a hot decade. Heck, it’s been known that “hot and dry” can last even longer than a decade. So can wet and cool. And then it can turn on a dime. The obvious question is: And…?
The rest of us that have history, and even oral history, will just plant something else. We adapt. We say, “Oh well, it rains on both the good and the evil. No benefit to wringing our hands over what or who dunit.” We don’t have a god-complex. But apparently BEST does?

You’re right Steve the raw data is crap, but it is what we have, and what you do with it doesn’t make it better it makes it worse.

Mark Bofill

Holts,

holts says:
December 12, 2013 at 1:00 pm
MB your post helps nothing here as a few obvious wrong readings have nothing to do with data manipulation at all!

I hate to interrupt a tribal ritual or whatever the heck this is, but if the group here is accusing Steven Mosher of manpulating data, I’d like to hear the basis.
I’m not sure if the general populace is aware that Sherlock Mosher was the one who busted Gleick in the Heartland fraud affair. This doesn’t strike me as the typical behavior of a Team player.
Come on people. Quit behaving like a bad mirror of SkS drones.

Reg Nelson says:
December 12, 2013 at 12:47 pm
Anything other than the satellite data is crap and is not suited for the purpose it is being used. It should be thrown in the bin.
Satellites actually are unable to measure surface temperatures with accuracy the surfacestations do. So I’m not much sure what is the message?

Mario Lento

Janice: I’m an shareholder/owner 🙂

Richard of NZ

“raw data is crap” S Mosher
Is S. Mosher for real?
Raw data is Data! Do anything to it and it ceases to be data, but becomes results or perhaps information. Data only comes from observation, with measurement being, hopefully, a more precise, accurate and reproducible form of observation. Nothing else is data.
Perhaps Mr. Mosher should return to his wall in Wonderland and leave the world to realists.
(Attn mods. The last line may be over the top, if so please delete).

phodges says:
December 12, 2013 at 10:19 am

“I have looked extensively at local temperature series. The raw plots are given but are then altered to match some mythical regional trend. If none of the local stations show that trend, then from where does it come?”
Their imagination, I think!
~Don

Mario.
Are we headed for doom. Dunno.
Our goal was simple. Collect and use all the data.
Use methods first suggested by skeptics.
Show everything we did.
Doomsaying is above my paygrade

NikFromNYC

Steve Mosher says:
“There are no adjustments.” / “We dont adjust data. We identify breakpoints and slice.”
Yet BEST data that show no breakpoints show great adjustment:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/6691
The *way* breakpoints are determined can readily be parameter tweaked for any random result you desire, such as one that matches climate models, as BEST indeed does as it now storms above even HadCRUT4. That represents an adjustment indeed, via parameter adjustment, which are then dishonestly called “empirical breakpoints.” The BEST breakpoints do not appear where any visual breakpoints exist, more often than not. Central England, plotted in my above link, gets turned into a hockey stick, thus:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/24994
Just because the breaks are via computer code doesn’t make them “empirical” especially if they do not correspond to actual sudden data jumps. I also plotted Berlin, which shows no such jumps, yet BEST slices and dices like crazy, again seemingly based not on the temperature record itself but on “regional differences”:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/155192
Also, older data is discarded without explanation or peer review, just like NASA GISS cuts off data before 1880. Central England, goes back to the late 1600s yet BEST also cuts it off before 1880 even though the resulting BEST hockey stick goes back to 1800. I also plotted Minneapolis, back to 1820, yet BEST cuts it off in 1859.

MB all I said was manipulating data as in altering changing varying etc data… U put the wrong slant on it that I did not intend mate

Scott Basinger

3 of the good ones. They are an example for others to follow.

Reg Nelson

tumetuestumefaisdubien1 says:
December 12, 2013 at 1:21 pm
Reg Nelson says:
Satellites actually are unable to measure surface temperatures with accuracy the surfacestations do. So I’m not much sure what is the message?
—————
NASA claims the accuracy of the satellite measurements are within 0.03 C. Do you have evidence to suggest otherwise? Or are you saying that measurements taken in the 1920’s are more accurate than that?

There is no such thing as raw data.
All data comes with assumptions and theory.
There are first reports.
These are error prone.
Use them and youll be wrong