This is the second in a series of videos that examines hypothetical human-induced global warming and claims made by global warming enthusiasts. As noted in the title, it presents an introduction to the halt—a.k.a. the hiatus, the pause—in global warming.
I attended a somewhat large Thanksgiving gathering. There were about 18 immediate family, in laws and friends—mostly adults—seated around 2 tables. One of the greener attendees said something about global warming, and my response was that global warming has slowed and there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade. My statement was met with disbelief by most. Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause. (We later confirmed the halt on-line.) This generated a number of quick discussions, but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming…and that climate scientists were unable to explain it. Has the halt in global warming somehow escaped mainstream media attention in the States? (I don’t know. I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.)
Thus this video:
The following are links to webpages and papers presented in the video:
- Kevin Trenberth’s article for the Royal Meteorological Society Has Global Warming Stalled? (My response to Trenberth’s article is here.)
- Von Storch, et al. (2013) “Can Climate Models Explain the Recent Stagnation in Global Warming?”
- Fyfe, et al. (2013) “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”
And, of course, I included a few model-data comparison graphs, which also show how poorly the models simulate global surface temperatures in recent years. For further discussions of these and other climate model failings, there are numerous posts at my blog Climate Observations. Refer also to my recent ebook Climate Models Fail.
In follow-up videos, we’ll present the excuses being used by global warming enthusiasts in light of the halt in global warming.
The video series “Comments on Human-Induced Global Warming” also includes:
Episode 1 – The Hiroshima Bomb Metric
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Bob: “I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.”
Welcome to the club!
Thanks, Bob, for an easy to follow, easy to verify, video. (And how do most people phonetically say HadCRUT?) Seems these days the MSM has shifted to “carbon” or “renewables” or “ocean acidification”. They must know that CAGW can have each word in the acronym taken apart.
“Speaking of 1998, wasn’t that a spike in world temperature and didn’t all those computer models NOT predict that spike? In other words, the models were wrong then, and they are wrong today.”
Half true 2005 (non El Nino year ) was on the NASA data set warmer than ’98..
“Previously, the warmest year of the century was 1998, when a strong El Nino, a warm water event in the eastern Pacific Ocean, added warmth to global temperatures. However, what’s significant, regardless of whether 2005 is first or second warmest, is that global warmth has returned to about the level of 1998 without the help of an El Nino.”
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ensemble techniques to smooth out short term internal chaotic climate cycles and attempt to quantify error bars and sensitivity to initial conditions. They never were intended to, and indeed inherently cannot predict a single years average global temp.
climatebeagle says:
December 5, 2013 at 8:11 am
Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post? Was it also in those papers?
climatebeagle,
Simple typo on my part – should have said the New York Post. Nuthin’ nefarious intended. But the commentary was interesting and aligned with Bob Tisdale’s post so I provided a link to it.
MtK
To the several folks above who say “stopped” instead of “paused”, I disagree. We can call it a pause if we have a reasonable confidence that it will eventually continue. I can, for example, say that “he paused in his hike” if I know that it’s only 10 in the morning and my hiker is in good shape and thus unlikely to be stopping for the night. Saying that he “stopped” on the other hand, implies not only that he is currently stopped but that I have some expectation that he will stay stopped. Since we have a very stable long-term trend of temperature increases since our emergence from the Little Ice Age, there is a physical basis for the expectation that sooner or later, we will return to that trend. Within that context, “pause” is reasonable.
More importantly, “pause” draws attention to the failure of the models to match the observed temperatures. It does not matter whether the pause is short or long-term, the models utterly failed to predict it. “Stopped” implies a certainty of permanence which allows the opponent to distract with irrelevant strawman arguments.
We are still about 5 weeks away from the historically coldest time of the year here in Colorado (Denver Metro area). January 1962 was a particularly cold month with record low of -24 deg F set on January 10 1962. This record was set at Stapleton airport weather service location, so the -15 set last night out at DIA on the plains is not really a fair comparison to the old record. It is well known that once you got out onto the plains north and east of metro Denver night time temps are often much colder in the winter and much hotter in the summer during the day.
On Jan 10,’62 it reached -30 Deg F just a few miles north east of Denver in Arvada. I remember it very well because I walked a mile to school in that weather and when I got home I had to wait in the cold on the patio for nearly an hour until my parents got home from the store to get in the house. There was no school shutdown due to weather it was just normal weather for a cold winter at the time. I also delivered the morning paper in that weather and in -30 deg F temps your eyes will freeze shut if you are a bit slow blinking them if they tear up due to the windchill.
That middle few weeks of January is typically the coldest of the winter and locally got nicknamed “stock show weather” because these cold snaps often just preceded or occurred during the National Western Stock Show here in Denver.
I would not be surprised to see sub -20 temps this year in a few weeks if this arctic express is any indicator of how this winter will develop.
TB says: “Half true 2005 (non El Nino year ) was on the NASA data set warmer than ’98.”
There was an El Nino in 2004/05. Global surface temperatures usually respond to an El Nino with a 3 to 6 months lag.
As someone whose “home channel” is Fox News Channel, I can report that they have reported on “the pause” numerous times in the past year.
@lynn Clark
People that vote for Obama and CAGW proponents don’t watch the Fox News Channel I’m afraid. They were told not to by Obama himself. I’m afraid also that the Fox News Channel isn’t the MSM even though they have the highest ratings for cable news.
“Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause.”
It is refreshing knowing that teenagers are paying attention and digging for facts instead of listening to agenda driven people (the end justifies the means). There is still hope.
The same conversation took place at our Thanksgiving table of 16 people. I sat next to my green brother-in-law who brought the subject up and I briefly gave a few facts about the pause, all of which were overheard by the younger generation at the table who backed up my position from their internet sources of information. So Anthony, your excellent website is holding forth!
RE: TB says: @ur momisugly 1:38 pm
“And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ensemble techniques to smooth out short term internal chaotic climate cycles and attempt to quantify error bars and sensitivity to initial conditions. They never were intended to, and indeed inherently cannot predict a single years average global temp.”
Maybe you should take a look at one of those spaghetti diagrams sometime:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg1/jpg/fig-10-5.jpg
Those little black dots sure look like single years to me.
I am sorry that the link did not work probably nothing I can do about that but the oceans have certainly warmed since the last glaciation and the thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue untill we enter the next glaciation,in the link I gave the warming of the oceans was linked to Global warming.
Alberta Slim says:
December 5, 2013 at 4:26 am
CodeTech says:
December 5, 2013 at 4:39 am
Here in Red Deer it’s -25c & -38c with the wind chill
Finally, some honesty about the hiatus. The video referred to a 15 year old slowdown, and towards its end presented graphs showing upward linear trend through the 1997-1998 El Nino spike, and flat to very slightly negative trend starting at the beginning of 1991.
Note the upward step from the pre-2001 linear trend to the 2001-onward linear trend. I think the hiatus started when temperature got close to the 2001-onward linear trend, in mid or late 2001. A projected intersection of the pre-2001 and 2001-onward linear trends occurs even later.
Note, this is HadCRUT4, which I think shows slightly morepost-1996 warming than the truth. Even considering that, I think the hiatus started in 2001, and what started with the 1997-1998 spike was a slowdown.
mikerossander says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:06 pm
We can call it a pause if we have a reasonable confidence that it will eventually continue.
“Stopped” implies a certainty of permanence which allows the opponent to distract with irrelevant strawman arguments.
That’s absurd. Your “reasonable confidence” that warming will eventually continue is an assumption based on nothing but goalpost-moving. Indeed, there is a very good chance of cooling in the coming decades. In your wildest imaginings, do you think that, during a period of cooling it would be called a “pause”? The truth is that it is a word that can and should only be used in retrospect. The words “stop” or “halt” imply nothing about the future. They describe a state of being only, nothing more.
Donald L. Klipstein says:
No, it is not a “hiatus” either, which is very similar to the word “pause”, in that it implies future continuation.
Steve Case says:
“Maybe you should take a look at one of those spaghetti diagrams sometime:
http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/ar4-wg1/jpg/fig-10-5.jpg
Those little black dots sure look like single years to me.”
And maybe you should read properly what I said…
“And no, computer models didn’t “NOT predict that spike” as it is not possible them to do that. GCM’s are generalised global models that use ENSEMBLE TECHNIQUES TO SMOOTH OUT short term internal chaotic climate cycles”
Is that clear the 2nd time of reading?
A single piece of “spaghetti” is meaningless except for it’s place within the whole ensemble.
They cannot predict detail – they do but they mean nothing as the range seen amongst the members shows.
And BTW: I do “take a look at spaghetti diagrams” – I worked for the UKMO for 32 years.
Long-term, we are actually still in the glacial age known as the pleistocene. Within that time-frame, though, we are blessed to be living during an interglacial or pause (note correct use of the term) known as the holocene. The last interglacial, the eemian lasted about 20k years. Hopefully, ours will last at least that long, but there are no guarantees.
Bottom line: we do live during a pause or hiatus, but of cooling, not warming.