This is the second in a series of videos that examines hypothetical human-induced global warming and claims made by global warming enthusiasts. As noted in the title, it presents an introduction to the halt—a.k.a. the hiatus, the pause—in global warming.
I attended a somewhat large Thanksgiving gathering. There were about 18 immediate family, in laws and friends—mostly adults—seated around 2 tables. One of the greener attendees said something about global warming, and my response was that global warming has slowed and there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade. My statement was met with disbelief by most. Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause. (We later confirmed the halt on-line.) This generated a number of quick discussions, but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming…and that climate scientists were unable to explain it. Has the halt in global warming somehow escaped mainstream media attention in the States? (I don’t know. I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.)
Thus this video:
The following are links to webpages and papers presented in the video:
- Kevin Trenberth’s article for the Royal Meteorological Society Has Global Warming Stalled? (My response to Trenberth’s article is here.)
- Von Storch, et al. (2013) “Can Climate Models Explain the Recent Stagnation in Global Warming?”
- Fyfe, et al. (2013) “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”
And, of course, I included a few model-data comparison graphs, which also show how poorly the models simulate global surface temperatures in recent years. For further discussions of these and other climate model failings, there are numerous posts at my blog Climate Observations. Refer also to my recent ebook Climate Models Fail.
In follow-up videos, we’ll present the excuses being used by global warming enthusiasts in light of the halt in global warming.
The video series “Comments on Human-Induced Global Warming” also includes:
Episode 1 – The Hiroshima Bomb Metric
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A big problem is that most people know virtually nothing about climate science.
On the execrable BBC Horizon Science Under Attack program, the NASA climate scientist told a shocking lie: that mankind emits seven times more CO2 than nature (I’m sure most readers here know the real figure). The sad, sad thing is that the vast majority of viewers probably assumed it was true because they didn’t know any better.
Most people probably don’t even know the amount of global warming that has occurred. The people I asked mostly thought it was a few degrees. I doubt if the Guardian or the BBC have ever stated the actual figure, as two thirds of a degree C just isn’t scary enough.
Chris
I use two terms depending on the point I want to make. I’ve been using “flat-lined” to describe the 17 years flat trend and often state it has signaled the death of AGW. I then refer to the RSS data.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.8/to/plot/rss/from:1996.8/trend
However, when I want to be more accurate I state the warming concluded at the end of the warm PDO and it is now cooling with the cool PDO. I then refer to this RSS chart. It also has the advantage of showing why we have had many of the so-called warmest years recently. There is a peak which we have now transited.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to:2005/trend/plot/rss/from:2005/trend
When articles like this begin to appear in the New York Times and others, (don’t hold your breath) maybe the average Joe might begin to wake up.:
http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof-is-evaporating/
Record cold in Denver this morning. -15F at the airport. Coldest reading I’ve ever gotten taking my daughter to school.
J. Philip Peterson says: “I don’t believe that you haven’t watched TV in a decade.”
My (not flat screen) television resides on the floor of a closet. I have no idea what I’ve saved it for.
From the inconvenient data department.
Forget about ‘The Pause’. What about ‘The Drop’? From UK’s favourite graph for long term temperature series. It has been dropping like a stone since 2006. Not long enough for a ‘real’ trend but….
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
Now if that stops dropping (as it will eventually) then maybe ‘The Pause’ will stop around the same time also. 🙂
OK, TOUCHÉ Bob, maybe if I had done the same with my TV, I could have gotten more work done and I would be a famous artist by now – lol.
Steve. Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear!
Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post?
Was it also in those papers?
Not that it is my intention to defend the MSM (far from it!), this is actually to be expected once you account for the sensationalist bias that is present in all so-called “reporting” today – typified by the old adage, “if it bleeds, it leads!”
Stories which report Disaster, Fire, Famine, Death, and Destruction always make headlines, regardless of whether they are true or not, because that’s what gets people to perk up and watch (or read). While on the other hand, the story which says “hey, you know all that stuff which we scared you about last month? Well, we were just mostly making that up, it isn’t going to happen after all” never gets broadcast or makes it to print. (or if it does, it is a one paragraph correction on page D-19)
When the frenzy is on and everyone seems to be excited, then the news outlets will be pushing the frenzy as hard as they can, because that’s what they do. When it peters out, they never report that – they just stop talking about it and move on to the next sexy horror show that they can peddle.
And if you believe there is anything other than that at work in what is quaintly called “journalism” today, well, your naivette is touching.
And this isn’t a bad thing – it means word of mouth, one on one work in this area can be effective, and you will not just be educating people about warming, but also about how pathetically useless most of what passes for “news” today has become.
climatebeagle says:
December 5, 2013 at 8:11 am
“Am I missing something, why do Mac the Knife and J. Philip Peterson say Michael Fumento’s article is in the NY Times or Washington Post, while linking to the New York Post?
Was it also in those papers?”
NO, that was my point. Articles like this never appear in the NY Times, or in the MSM or on 60 Minutes etc. I think you misunderstood my point.
WWS, I told my 21 YO son. If ever anyone in mass media tries to motivate you with fear, dis-regard them. They are attempting to manipulate you.
Nice job, Bob. Very measured delivery of the information, and a logical conclusion. For what it’s worth, I don’t like “stagnation” as a term to describe temp trends. I think the word ‘plateau’ should be used to describe current trends, as it’s the most neutral term, implying neither warming or cooling in the future.
BTW: right now it’s -17 f here in the Colorado River valley in Western Colorado. This is a new record low by over 10 degrees.
A well known quote:
“Whoever Controls the Language Controls the Debate”
Yes, using the term “Pause” allows the Global Warming enthusiasts to control the language and the debate. I prefer “Flat line” I don’t know what world temperatures will do tomorrow but since 1998 they’ve flat lined.
Speaking of 1998, wasn’t that a spike in world temperature and didn’t all those computer models NOT predict that spike? In other words, the models were wrong then, and they are wrong today.
Thanks to the media, most people don’t know global warming has stopped after the 1998 El Niño.
It all comes down to self-loathing for many warmers….”If man is involved he is probably screwing up”. When there is a dogma involved, in climate religion as well as any other religion, any fact that contradicts that dogma is necessarily wrong. And of course anyone who brings that fact up is evil.
In my family, we don’t discuss global warm/changing. Me and my wife are the black sheep in that regard. Sometimes there are references to it; about how “weather has changed”, or some such nonsense. We ignore it. They are dyed-in-the-wool Believers, and nothing we, or anyone says can change that. It’s sad, really.
It puzzles me when people on this site say the people they communicate with have no idea of the World’s current stationary temperature. Everyone I talk to seems to realise the climate is a World variable. But then I suppose that is because we are all old (70+) and have seen it all before.
I am surprised that your friends/family will engage with you regarding climate (as I suspect they know what your view on it is). My colleagues and family generally know (or soon come to know) my position and they tend to not engage with me if they hold a differing opinion. If the subject comes up I tend to talk facts, they tend to talk feelings. Thanks for the nice video, I will put this out for friends/family to see.
Could the rising deep ocean temperatures be a sign that we are heading into another iceage?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22029461.600-is-it-time-to-stop-worrying-about-global-warming.html
Bloke down the pub says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:29 am
“Sorry Bob, I’m doing the best I can.”
Obviously, you haven’t been visiting enough pubs!
Seeing as how “global warming” only ran for 11 years or so, and the flat-line has clocked up almost 20 years, we should not let the alarmists insist on the word “pause”. I refuse to use the term “climate change” because it gives them room to move and to continue their meme. The use of the word “pause” just gives them more wriggle room again – something they are desperate for. Why should we let them have that? They are manipulating us all, robbing us blind and destroying our civilization. Why help them keep the drama alive?
Ran into this a few weeks ago while ballroom dancing of all things. A fellow I knew had apparently managed to incense a green activist by telling her that there had been no 21st century warming. I was walking by and he said to me, “Alec, you tell her.” After finding out what I was supposed to tell her I confirmed it to her, and her response was to say that she did not regard us as experts and she wasn’t going to listen to us.
Hey, don’t believe US. Go check the record. Can you Google “temperature history”? But no, she was determined not to heed ANYTHING we said, because we were obviously the enemy. If the enemy said, “go that way,” of course you don’t go that way. It’s pure contrariness. If you say “go check the facts,” that’s exactly what they WON’T do.
The modus operandi of the left (and numerous studies confirm that warming alarmism is a creature of the left) is a determined avoidance of all contrary information. They literally don’t let themselves hear it, flaring up in anger so as to otherwise occupy the mind and repel the unwanted information. That makes them the lowest of low information voters. They actively avoid information.
Re: donald penman @ur momisugly 11:24 am
“Could the rising deep ocean temperatures be a sign that we are heading into another iceage?”
Besides your link not working, what rising deep ocean currents? The ARGO data that Dr. Josh Willis edited, corrected & adjusted? That deep ocean warming? Just wondering.
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
December 5, 2013 at 5:15 am
“it isn’t a ‘pause’, and neither is it an ‘hiatus’… however, we just might say, “Back in the 2000s, the warming stopped.”!”
Given that the 65-year ENSO is now in its negative phase and given the quiet state of the sun, I’ve been telling people that ‘the temperature cycle peaked’ around year 2000 and will be heading down again. The Ghost is right though; we don’t ‘know’ what it will do, and ‘the warming stopped’ is accurate regardless what happens next. I’ll switch to that; maybe then a few people won’t dismiss me out of hand as a nutcase.