NOTE: readers of this thread may be interested in this:
An ethical challenge for Greg Laden – put your money where your mouth is
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Here is the sort of headlines we had Friday, for example this one from Huffington Post where they got all excited about some early reports from Andrew Freedman:
Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines, producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. As of Thursday afternoon Eastern time, Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda, had estimated maximum sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph, which puts the storm in extraordinarily rare territory.
UPDATE 5: from this NYT article:
Before the typhoon made landfall, some international forecasters were estimating wind speeds at 195 m.p.h., which would have meant the storm would hit with winds among the strongest recorded. But local forecasters later disputed those estimates. “Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated,” Mr. Paciente said.
The Philippine weather agency measured winds on the eastern edge of the country at about 150 m.p.h., he said, with some tracking stations recording speeds as low as 100 m.p.h.
Ah those wind speed estimates, they don’t always meet up with reality later – Anthony
==============================================================
By Paul Homewood
Sadly it appears that at least 1000 1200 1774* lives have been lost in Typhoon Yolanda (or Haiyan), that has just hit the Philippines. There appear to have been many unsubstantiated claims about its size, though these now appear to start being replaced by accurate information.
Nevertheless the BBC are still reporting today
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall …….The storm made landfall shortly before dawn on Friday, bringing gusts that reached 379km/h (235 mph).
Unfortunately we cannot always trust the BBC to give the facts these days, so let’s see what the Philippine Met Agency, PAGASA, have to say. Here are the surface wind reports:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wbfcst.html
So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts upto 275 kmh or 171 mph. This is 60 mph less than the BBC have quoted.
The maximum strength reached by the typhoon appears to have been around landfall, as the reported windspeeds three hours earlier were 225 kmh (140mph).
Terrible though this storm was, it only ranks as a Category 4 storm, and it is clear nonsense to suggest that it is “one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall “
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale
Given the geography of the Pacific, most typhoons stay out at sea, or only hit land once they have weakened. But in total terms, the busiest typhoon season in recent decades was 1964, whilst the following year logged the highest number of super typhoons (which equate to Cat 3 +). Of the eleven super typhoons that year, eight were Category 5’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon
So far this year, before Yolanda there have been just three Category 5’s, none of which hit land at that strength.
Personally I don’t like to comment on events such as these until long after the dust has settled. Unfortunately though, somebody has to set the record if we cannot rely on the BBC and others to get the basic facts right.
UPDATE
In case anyone thinks I am overreacting, take a look at the Daily Mail headlines.
Just looking at it again, is it possible the MSM are confusing mph with kmh? It seems a coincidence that PAGASA report 235 kmh.
UPDATE 2
I have just registered a complaint at the Press Complaints Commission against the Mail article. If anyone spots similar articles elsewhere, and I will add them to my complaint.
UPDATE 3
I seem to have been right about the kmh/mph confusion!
I’ve just scanned down the Mail article and seen this:
Unless they think “gusts” are less than “winds”, it looks like someone has boobed.
=============================================================
UPDATE4: Kent Noonan writes in with this addition –
CNN has had several articles stating the same numbers for wind speed as BBC and Mail. I saw these numbers first last night at 10PM Pacific time.
Today’s story: “Powered by 195-mph winds and gusts up to 235 mph, it then struck near Tacloban and Dulag on the island of Leyte, flooding the coastal communities.”
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/09/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews
If these “news” agencies don’t issue a correction, we will be forever battling the new meme of “most powerful storm in world history”.
Look at today’s google search for “most powerful storm”
stories run by Independent, NBC, dailymail, NPR, Foxnews, CNBC, WND, Business Insider, PBS, BBC, CNN, FirstPost, Bloomberg
“All you need to know Typhoon Haiyan, world’s most powerful storm” by FP Staff Nov 8, 2013
Then they go on to correctly state gusts to 170mph !!
UPDATE 6: (update 5 is at the head of the post)
BBC now reporting reduced wind speeds that would make it a Cat4 storm:
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall – swept through six central Philippine islands on Friday.
It brought sustained winds of 235km/h (147mph), with gusts of 275 km/h (170 mph), with waves as high as 15m (45ft), bringing up to 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain in places.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24887337 (h/t David S)
UPDATE7: While hit and run haters like Greg laden deplore us pointing out the measurements of wind speeds, labeling us with all sorts of derogatory names, they conveniently ignore purposely created propaganda like this:
The juxtaposition in Tenney Naumer’s Twitter Feed says it all:
Rules for Radicals: “We are always moral and our enemies always immoral.” The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the immorality of the opposition,”
UPDATE 8: here is another number you are likely to see bandied about as supposed proof of this storm being historically unprecedented, courtesy Tenney Naumer who pointed it out in comments:
NOAA recorded Haiyan’s lowest central pressure at 858, quite possibly a record in the instrumental era:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/tdata/wpac/31W.html
Those aren’t measurements Tenney, they are ESTIMATES. Done from satellite. They are called DVORAK fixes.
And note, the estimates stay the same for several hours without any fluctuation, then repeat values in bracketing outside that period, a sure sign of a model doing rounding.
Here is the source page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HAIYAN.html
The technique is new, and has issues and acknowledged biases, it is a work in progress. One of the issues is that verification has only been done for near US Atlantic Basin storms within the range of hurricane hunter aircraft.
Paper on the technique is here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010WAF2222375.1 ]
UPDATE9: (h/t to WUWT reader StewGreen)
From the Government of the Philippines sitrep report, a screencap:
Click to access NDRRMC%20UP%20Sitrep%20No12%20re%20Effects%20of%20TY%20YOLANDA%20111113.pdf
UPDATE 10: Laden’s claims in his tirade aren’t supported by actual science and data, he writes:
But Watts and Homewood don’t want storms to be important for the simple reason that the best models strongly suggest that there will be more storms … especially in the Pacific, where Haiyan struck, over coming decades because of the changes to climate that humans are carrying out and that Anthony Watts and Paul Homewood deny to be real.
This paper shows the reality:
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.
==================================================================
* Reports are varying wildly
The Red Cross in the Philipines says 1200 in this report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/09/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSBRE9A603Q20131109
But now Reuters is claiming and estimate of 10,000 based on a late night meeting of officials at the Governors Office. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/10/philippines-typhoon-casualty-idUSL4N0IV00F20131110
About the same time as the Reuters 10K report, television News in the Philipines says the death toll is 151. http://anc.yahoo.com/video/ndrrmc-151-dead-due-yolanda-011610793.html
Early reports often vary widely, and it will be some time before accurate numbers are produced.
Our hearts and prayers go to the Philippine people. For those that wish to help, here is the website of the Philippine Red Cross: http://ushare.redcross.org.ph/
Monday in the WSJ:
Philippines Typhoon Death Count Rises to 1,774
Toll Exceeds Red Cross Estimates of 1,200; Likely to Rise Much Higher
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579191821439194290?tesla=y
Source of the number: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/334950/news/nation/ndrrmc-confirms-1-774-fatalities-most-are-from-eastern-visayas
UPDATE: 11/12 7AM Philippine president Aquino says to CNN: Typhoon Haiyan deaths likely 2,000 to 2,500 — not 10,000
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[ reporting on actual measured wind speeds from the Philippine met agency is an “attempt to minimize the size and severity of the storm”? – what an odd attitude – mod]
After reading this thread, I have to say that your attitude is extremely odd!
So if people just used the words ‘estimated’ and ‘measured’ correctly in their reporting with both wind speed and numbers of deaths then understanding and knowledge would be vastly improved. It would also help if basic scale conversions could be be used correctly!
how strange. I don’t see a link to donate to the victims anywhere on Greg Laden’s site.
I can’t believe this article was even written. How quickly did you expect the news of the most devastated regions to come out after a Category 5-equivalent typhoon? I’ll tell you– it wasn’t going to be instantaneous. It is now feared that 10,000 people lost their lives in this typhoon; entire cities have been flattened by either a monstrous storm surge or winds well into the Category 5 threshold.
T Control,
Given Laden’s basic lack of honesty, I would hesitate to contribute even if there was a way on his blog. How would we know the money would be forwarded to those in need?
The traffic at Laden’s pitiful blog will probably increase tenfold as some people reading WUWT go there to “see what they’re missing.”
dbstealey,
good point.But even a direct link to Red Cross would show it had at least occurred to him. Sadly, I suppose it did not.
Anthony should ask him to put his money where his mouth is and match whatever contributions are made through WUWT.
The traffic at Laden’s pitiful blog will probably increase tenfold as some people reading WUWT go there to “see what they’re missing.”
I’m sorry. I really didn’t want to give him the page clicks but I wanted to see if he mentioned anything about donating, as Anthony always does in any disaster. What a hypocrite. Anyway, people, you’re not missing anything by not going there- just the usual angry leftist diatribes.
Hi Greg Laden. I just published a post at my blog that I suspect you will not appreciate…
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/are-greg-ladens-reading-comprehension-skills-at-an-all-time-low/
…because it is about your blog post linked above.
Have a nice day.
So can I assume that Greg Laden will be contacting Baroness Shirley Williams because she tried to make inappropriate political capital out of linking the ‘worst ever’ storm with her wish for the British to pay green taxes and look happy? See 5 mins 30
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24887994
And, since this typhoon will be fodder for every climate hysteria story until the next disaster, will Mr Laden be as concerned for the victims then? Or is there a timeframe for being in good taste when you exploit the dead?
PAGASA uses a 10-minute averaging time for their typhoon wind advisories and the averaging time used by JTWC and NHC is 1-minute, so as a result the winds seemingly come in lower. If you use the normal conversion rate for 10 minutes to 1 minute you still get 165 miles per hour, which is what the wind would have been on land, as those windspeeds are from the JTWC and NHC are only valid over water.
TinyCO2: “Or is there a timeframe for being in good taste when you exploit the dead?”
There is no time limit in exploiting the dead, as they can no longer speak about themselves. The living aren’t allowed to be exploited by the public until after the UN is doing giving them cholera.
Whoever wrote this article is an idiot. Must be another right wing tool, like 90% of their internet posters are.
The images coming out of the Philippines is evidence enough that it was a Cat 5 typhoon.
http://news.sky.com/story/1166188/super-typhoon-haiyan-thousands-feared-dead
[ the first image in your link shows thatched roof beach huts still mostly intact – a Cat5 typhoon would have blown them away – mod ]
Well then, those thatched roofs in that image must have been well away from the eyewall.
Look at the video below and then tell me a thatched roof would survive in those winds!
http://www.youtube.com/embed/zZQanISDpek?
mapsguy1955,
Your comment is typical of the know-nothing alarmist cult.
If you have valid criticism, cut and paste whatever you disagree with, and say why. Otherwise, you are just trolling.
The leftie pose of “We care more about real people than you do” is on full display.
Let me make a prediction. The further left an agency or government is, the less it will actually contribute to rescue and rebuilding. The further left an individual is, the less he/she will actually donate or contribute to same. The left’s solutions are always “other people’s money”, not its own.
From CBS news,
Challenged to respond to a disaster of such magnitude, the Philippine government also accepted help from its U.S. and European allies.
In Washington, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel directed the military’s Pacific Command to deploy ships and aircraft to support search-and-rescue operations and airlift emergency supplies, while European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso sent Aquino a message saying “we stand ready to contribute with urgent relief and assistance if so required in this hour of need.”
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon offered his condolences and said U.N. humanitarian agencies were working closely with the Philippine government to respond quickly with emergency assistance, according to a statement.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57611659/typhoon-haiyan-leaves-thousands-dead-as-it-rumbles-on-towards-vietnam/
Note who’s coming with the goods and who’s “standing ready” and “working closely.” What ever your opinion of the US or the US military, they’re the ones that show up and do the heavy lifting. No organization is better at mobilizing men and materiel and operating a long and fat supply chain.
Jon says:
November 10, 2013 at 3:11 pm
“This site reminds me more and more of a school playground!”
==============
The old playground where you picked the grit out of your wounds when you fell off the jungle-gym, or the new playground with the rubber mats ?
I’m thoroughly confused by the negative reaction of many to this post. The most prevalent complaint seems to be regarding timing and perceived insensitivity. I remind you that this post was made well after the rampant multi-tiered hype had proliferated the coverage (search Superstorm Haiyan). The old Churchill quote “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on” seems to apply here and it is one of the favorite tactics of the warmists. More importantly, the focus of the post was upon the apparently exaggerated wind speed and the widespread promotion of the storm as “the most powerful storm ever” with the subtopic of CO2 “steroids.”
WUWT used the empirical evidence available, anathema to sensationalists, to speak and allow us to speak to these exaggerations. Not until the crap-Ladens came along with their failed straw man about death toll did this mutate into a discussion about sensitivity. And unfortunately to me many fell for the bait.
As more information comes in the picture will become clearer and the story of what really happened in the Philippines will be told, and I’m sure the updates at WUWT will continue as further reliable evidence comes in. That is the responsible thing to do, and, unlike the alarmist coverage, responsibility for what is said is important to this community. As an example, watch the contrast unfold here as, I predict, the early reports prove inaccurate. There will be no loud or large “my bad” from the chronically-alarmist sources. They’ll just go on as though no fix is needed. Why bother when the fix is in, right? Their goals of scare and revenue mongering will have been met and they will tap the vein further with the tired AGW angle once the initial sensationalism tapers off. It’s what they do. Never let a crisis go to waste.
As I chastised Laden in my response, it takes some ridiculous nerve to get on the “we care” high horse when their painful prescriptions for AGW mitigation are exposed for all to see (not that they were ever out of plain view). Poverty kills over 20,000 people each and every day, most of them children. The AGW zealots want to prolong this poverty and prevent the expansion of the global middle class. It would be a death sentence for tens of millions, an unnatural culling of the world’s weakest, yet they somehow are able to declare some outrageous moral high ground?
I wish I could openly swear at this point because I would love to sound off the anger that just welled up in me. Who are these rats to tell us we don’t care? Seriously, who the hell do these people think they are preaching morality to us when they promote measures that drive up the cost of energy for those who have it and hinder the development of energy sources for those who don’t? Their intentional sustainable misery will make us all far poorer and their re-educated delusional sheep actually believe that they are saving the freakin’ planet? They are destroying it! Please people. Stop falling into their pathetic morality trap. It is they who need to discuss, amongst themselves, the morality of the future they so actively pursue. Um, Cheers!
mapsguy1955 (November 10, 2013 at 2:09 pm) says “Whoever wrote this article is an idiot.”
Well I clicked on your link to see what you had to say. As it turns out there is basically nothing at your link (an empty wordpress blog). At least Anthony wrote an article, he may be wrong sometimes IMO, I agree with him on the basics of AGW versus CAGW. One of the surest bets in a tragedy like this is that the CAGW side will exploit it even when it had nothing to do with AGW.
Got any fancy climate models that predicted the dud of an Atlantic season? Can AGW lead to fewer strong storms? The western Pacific saw many more storms of this magnitude in the 50’s and 60’s so there is certainly a decline there.
Jon (November 10, 2013 at 3:11 pm) same applies to you. If you have something substantive to say, then say it. You have not added to the quality of the dialog whatsoever.
Left the following comment at Greg’s site. I wonder if it’ll get through moderation:
David Smith
england
November 10, 2013
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Greg and other global warming activists are always trying to promote the, “Increase in extreme weather events” mantra. However, I’ve yet to see them post ANY data that demonstrates that the frequency of current ‘extreme’ events is any higher than in the past.
For every ‘extreme’ event that activists have screamed about over the last year (Sandy, bush fires, etc), a multitude more can be found throughout a record that goes back a hundred years or more.
To be honest, all the wailing and gnashing of teeth is getting rather boring. I used to be a fully signed-up global warming believer, but soon realised that the church of Global Warming had become a religion just like so many others. As an atheist, I wanted no part of this organised mass-hysteria that seemed no better than the ‘world is about to end’ preachers on the God Channel.
BTW Greg is getting his a** firmly whipped over at the comments section at WUWT. It’s really funny.
RE: galileonardo says:
November 10, 2013 at 4:04 pm
Well said. You have a way with words.
I sort of liked how you went into a slow burn. I can relate to that, but don’t let it spoil your day.
met says:
“Take a look at the satellite imagery and try to argue that Super Typhoon Haiyan was not one of the most powerful storms on record, bring that to ANY meteorologist and they’d be willing to agree that it was, I have yet to see a meteorologist who says he’s seen a more impressive storm on satellite than this one. I’ve got no dog in the fight for or against AGW (personally I see merits to arguments both for and against), and I know that this blog is in place to argue against it and that’s fine, scientific debate is great, but to call this storm “overhyped” is a joke.”
met: All do respect, but this is drivel. How does looking at satellite imagery in this case distinguish this storm as “one of the most powerful”? A well defined eyewall does no such thing. Many tropical systems have well defined eyewalls but the larger ones would not have as strong of winds as would a smaller eyewall because of the central pressure and radius dependency that determines or drives the pressure gradient force and thus, the wind.
Nobody was arguing this wasn’t a strong typhoon, but it WAS hyped because of the glaring error in which the BBC and others incorrectly used kilometers as miles, meaning the winds were only 62% of the values reported in this type of error. That is not miniscule. It is a sizable mistake. If you also look at the paper that defines how DVORAK is used, it is very apparent there is potentially large error in storms with winds > 125 knots such as here. I won’t debate whether this was deliberate or because of incompetence, but there is no doubt in my mind that the CAGW crowd was licking their chops to try and use this catastrophe as proof that fossil fuel burning and CO2 are causing stronger storms. We now know this is nonsense and that Camille remains the most powerful tropical system in recorded history, which dates back to August of 1969, far from reach of the likes of the Greg Laden goons.
It is also very probable that because the speeds were measured much lower that the initial reports, that the central pressure was also way off the mark. Central pressure of these types of storms would go directly to an estimate of how strong the lateral wind divergence would have been near the core to generate the pressure gradients. 858 milibars is just not believable considering what we now know were winds that were around 170 MPH. I don’t know how they came up with that, but I would bet money that it is wrong…by a large margin of error.
Chuck Wiese
Meteorologist
At 1743 PST from Foxnews “The death toll has reached 1,000 but the number is projected to climb to 10,000.”
“One of the worst storms ever recorded” “Gusts to 275 kph” _Japan Times_
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/11/11/asia-pacific/huge-challenges-for-philippines-in-aftermath-of-deadly-typhoon/#.UoBewfFnc4Q
–bks