NOTE: readers of this thread may be interested in this:
An ethical challenge for Greg Laden – put your money where your mouth is
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Here is the sort of headlines we had Friday, for example this one from Huffington Post where they got all excited about some early reports from Andrew Freedman:
Super Typhoon Haiyan — which is one of the strongest storms in world history based on maximum windspeed — is about to plow through the Central Philippines, producing a potentially deadly storm surge and dumping heavy rainfall that could cause widespread flooding. As of Thursday afternoon Eastern time, Haiyan, known in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Yolanda, had estimated maximum sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts above 220 mph, which puts the storm in extraordinarily rare territory.
UPDATE 5: from this NYT article:
Before the typhoon made landfall, some international forecasters were estimating wind speeds at 195 m.p.h., which would have meant the storm would hit with winds among the strongest recorded. But local forecasters later disputed those estimates. “Some of the reports of wind speeds were exaggerated,” Mr. Paciente said.
The Philippine weather agency measured winds on the eastern edge of the country at about 150 m.p.h., he said, with some tracking stations recording speeds as low as 100 m.p.h.
Ah those wind speed estimates, they don’t always meet up with reality later – Anthony
==============================================================
By Paul Homewood
Sadly it appears that at least 1000 1200 1774* lives have been lost in Typhoon Yolanda (or Haiyan), that has just hit the Philippines. There appear to have been many unsubstantiated claims about its size, though these now appear to start being replaced by accurate information.
Nevertheless the BBC are still reporting today
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall …….The storm made landfall shortly before dawn on Friday, bringing gusts that reached 379km/h (235 mph).
Unfortunately we cannot always trust the BBC to give the facts these days, so let’s see what the Philippine Met Agency, PAGASA, have to say. Here are the surface wind reports:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wbfcst.html
So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts upto 275 kmh or 171 mph. This is 60 mph less than the BBC have quoted.
The maximum strength reached by the typhoon appears to have been around landfall, as the reported windspeeds three hours earlier were 225 kmh (140mph).
Terrible though this storm was, it only ranks as a Category 4 storm, and it is clear nonsense to suggest that it is “one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall “
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale
Given the geography of the Pacific, most typhoons stay out at sea, or only hit land once they have weakened. But in total terms, the busiest typhoon season in recent decades was 1964, whilst the following year logged the highest number of super typhoons (which equate to Cat 3 +). Of the eleven super typhoons that year, eight were Category 5’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon
So far this year, before Yolanda there have been just three Category 5’s, none of which hit land at that strength.
Personally I don’t like to comment on events such as these until long after the dust has settled. Unfortunately though, somebody has to set the record if we cannot rely on the BBC and others to get the basic facts right.
UPDATE
In case anyone thinks I am overreacting, take a look at the Daily Mail headlines.
Just looking at it again, is it possible the MSM are confusing mph with kmh? It seems a coincidence that PAGASA report 235 kmh.
UPDATE 2
I have just registered a complaint at the Press Complaints Commission against the Mail article. If anyone spots similar articles elsewhere, and I will add them to my complaint.
UPDATE 3
I seem to have been right about the kmh/mph confusion!
I’ve just scanned down the Mail article and seen this:
Unless they think “gusts” are less than “winds”, it looks like someone has boobed.
=============================================================
UPDATE4: Kent Noonan writes in with this addition –
CNN has had several articles stating the same numbers for wind speed as BBC and Mail. I saw these numbers first last night at 10PM Pacific time.
Today’s story: “Powered by 195-mph winds and gusts up to 235 mph, it then struck near Tacloban and Dulag on the island of Leyte, flooding the coastal communities.”
http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/09/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews
If these “news” agencies don’t issue a correction, we will be forever battling the new meme of “most powerful storm in world history”.
Look at today’s google search for “most powerful storm”
stories run by Independent, NBC, dailymail, NPR, Foxnews, CNBC, WND, Business Insider, PBS, BBC, CNN, FirstPost, Bloomberg
“All you need to know Typhoon Haiyan, world’s most powerful storm” by FP Staff Nov 8, 2013
Then they go on to correctly state gusts to 170mph !!
UPDATE 6: (update 5 is at the head of the post)
BBC now reporting reduced wind speeds that would make it a Cat4 storm:
Typhoon Haiyan – one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall – swept through six central Philippine islands on Friday.
It brought sustained winds of 235km/h (147mph), with gusts of 275 km/h (170 mph), with waves as high as 15m (45ft), bringing up to 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain in places.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24887337 (h/t David S)
UPDATE7: While hit and run haters like Greg laden deplore us pointing out the measurements of wind speeds, labeling us with all sorts of derogatory names, they conveniently ignore purposely created propaganda like this:
The juxtaposition in Tenney Naumer’s Twitter Feed says it all:
Rules for Radicals: “We are always moral and our enemies always immoral.” The issue is never the issue. The issue is always the immorality of the opposition,”
UPDATE 8: here is another number you are likely to see bandied about as supposed proof of this storm being historically unprecedented, courtesy Tenney Naumer who pointed it out in comments:
NOAA recorded Haiyan’s lowest central pressure at 858, quite possibly a record in the instrumental era:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/tdata/wpac/31W.html
Those aren’t measurements Tenney, they are ESTIMATES. Done from satellite. They are called DVORAK fixes.
And note, the estimates stay the same for several hours without any fluctuation, then repeat values in bracketing outside that period, a sure sign of a model doing rounding.
Here is the source page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HAIYAN.html
The technique is new, and has issues and acknowledged biases, it is a work in progress. One of the issues is that verification has only been done for near US Atlantic Basin storms within the range of hurricane hunter aircraft.
Paper on the technique is here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010WAF2222375.1 ]
UPDATE9: (h/t to WUWT reader StewGreen)
From the Government of the Philippines sitrep report, a screencap:
Click to access NDRRMC%20UP%20Sitrep%20No12%20re%20Effects%20of%20TY%20YOLANDA%20111113.pdf
UPDATE 10: Laden’s claims in his tirade aren’t supported by actual science and data, he writes:
But Watts and Homewood don’t want storms to be important for the simple reason that the best models strongly suggest that there will be more storms … especially in the Pacific, where Haiyan struck, over coming decades because of the changes to climate that humans are carrying out and that Anthony Watts and Paul Homewood deny to be real.
This paper shows the reality:
Kubota, H. and Chan, J.C.L. 2009. Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone landfall in the Philippines from 1902 to 2005. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL038108.
==================================================================
* Reports are varying wildly
The Red Cross in the Philipines says 1200 in this report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/09/us-philippines-typhoon-idUSBRE9A603Q20131109
But now Reuters is claiming and estimate of 10,000 based on a late night meeting of officials at the Governors Office. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/10/philippines-typhoon-casualty-idUSL4N0IV00F20131110
About the same time as the Reuters 10K report, television News in the Philipines says the death toll is 151. http://anc.yahoo.com/video/ndrrmc-151-dead-due-yolanda-011610793.html
Early reports often vary widely, and it will be some time before accurate numbers are produced.
Our hearts and prayers go to the Philippine people. For those that wish to help, here is the website of the Philippine Red Cross: http://ushare.redcross.org.ph/
Monday in the WSJ:
Philippines Typhoon Death Count Rises to 1,774
Toll Exceeds Red Cross Estimates of 1,200; Likely to Rise Much Higher
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303914304579191821439194290?tesla=y
Source of the number: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/334950/news/nation/ndrrmc-confirms-1-774-fatalities-most-are-from-eastern-visayas
UPDATE: 11/12 7AM Philippine president Aquino says to CNN: Typhoon Haiyan deaths likely 2,000 to 2,500 — not 10,000
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And this morning (Sunday, 08:00) the BBC radio news is still leading with the number of deaths “caused by one of the most powerful storms on record”. You could go nose-to-nose with that organisation and shout at them that they are liars, and I swear it would make not a jot of difference to their lying propagandist output.
Anthony
If some reports of wind speeds were exaggerated, is the converse also true?
b4llzofsteel says:
November 9, 2013 at 11:44 pm
“My thoughts are with the victims”
b4llzofsteel (8^D), if you have spent anytime here at WUWT?, you would know that is always first and foremost on the minds of our host and the regulars here.
Mods, obviously I have no idea of what Rob Honeycutt is saying, neither does anyone else, unfortunately, only you. Do you think it might be better to let the posts appear (as long as it isn’t defamatory) so that we can decide if it’s a ‘rant’ – though I don’t understand why a ‘rant’ isn’t allowed? This is, after all, a forum for people to express strongly-held views. Perhaps if it received enough negative comments from others, THEN it could be removed. I realise that you are in a difficult position, but I cannot be alone in thinking that there is far too much censorship that takes place on forums across the net. I myself, have been the subject of censorship on Tamino’s webite and also the New Zealand website, hot-topic (a gloriously-silly pro AGW place for like-minders to reassure each other). I make a point never to visit these sites again. The net is a wonderful place, and somewhere where you can read other’s views, even if they may be diametrically opposed to one’s own. Censorship should ONLY be happening in extreme circumstances or where a view could have a legal repercussion. I have spent many years here on WUWT, and it’s the only website that I visit daily, but I had to express my view that censoring of other’s posts MAY be happening too easily. Of course, I may be wrong – my wife says I often am.
Dear Anthony
I’ve been a constant follower of your blog since several years. I like reading the technical articles even If I am not a climatologist and I often appreciate the open and fair discussions.
I think however this time you really lost control over your instinct of crusader agains AWG and Co. This cynic discussion about kpm/Mph/knots, records/not record etc while people are dying and are going to die for the unavoidable spread of infection diseases through water is, to say the least, inappropriate.
For the sake of human solidarity I would suggest to suspend at least until this disaster is not ended and its dimension will be fully understood
thank you
Carlo Napolitano MD PhD
By the way, it makes me smile to know that it eats Laden up that Anthony has such a huge and dedicated readership. In fact, reading between the lines of Greg’s posts can be seen the words “sour grapes” over and over again. He does not understand that people can see right through his abrasive fear mongering and deceptive bullshit and choose to stay away. In his weak narcissistic mind he sees it as “being ignored’. Too funny.
The humanitarians of the now defunct global warming enterprise are concerned only that they can attribute a body count to a “world record” storm that they blame on CO2.To the thousands of victims, it makes absolutely no difference if their homes were destroyed by 149 mph winds or 160 mph winds
[snip – pointless insulting rant – mod]
b4llzofsteel: “does it make a difference if you get killed by 275 or 375 km/h?”
Does it make a difference if you don’t? If you’re so strung over on the inhumanity of inhuman forces then purchase an indulgence for your middle class sins at a fund that swears they’ll help out victims. No matter what wind speed didn’t kill them.
Howard Wiseman (@HowSmart) says:
What does your comment say when we look back through previous posts on this topic and see that WUWT commenters were citing the early reports of low numbers of deaths to criticise the warnings and forecasts?
We all know the game WUWT will play on these events in the coming years. Every decent meteorologist knows that the raising of the global average temperature by the best part of 1 degree will have significant impacts on weather events such as these – undeniably so. But WUWT and the contrarians will use the fact that this will be difficult and take time to prove empirically to deny it and to muddy the waters.
Play your games, children.
With 10,000 lives lost already and 315km/hr winds I think this thread is odd beam and shows WUWT in a bad light unfortunately. We don’t have to go to AGW lengths to ridicule everything!
So what you are saying is this:
1. The BBC journalists are incapable of passing the entry-level journalist requirement of identifying multiple sources of data and cross-validating them prior to issuing ‘news’.
2. The BBC Editor failed to ask for the appropriate corroboratory evidence before running the story.
3. The whole of the west’s MSM did likewise, not one of them carrying out basic professional journalism or editorial work to ensure that their role in informing, not brainwashing, was delivered.
And we all wonder why the Press nowadays has a reputation worse than second hand car salesmen, estate agents and politicians???
Ok the press is bad and is confused and wrong often in these cases, but I just think that we should be careful when people have lost many lives and are in suffering to not appear to be unsympathetic to their plight!
To those who are saying this site is being disrespectful to the dead by nitpicking about the wind speeds all I can say is go and lie down in a dark room. No web site is perfect but this site is generally sensitive and certainly not disrespectful.
The conversion of kph to mph is simple and should not be a source for error from even a twelve year old?
As an approximation
100 kph=60 mph (or to be precise 62.137)
To get this conversion wrong is absolutely pathetic.
There is an old Chinese adage that goes…
Superior virtue does not know virtue,
Inferior virtue practices virtue.
I;m reminded of this saying as a result of all the comments from the latter type who want to be seen as virtuous.
Rob Honeycutt
1) Does anyone here understand the difference between wind speed prior to and after landfall?
The PAGASA Update 5A, which was three hours before landfall quotes
Maximum sustained winds of 225 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 260 kph
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html
Seems very strange to me, near complete devastation in the pics, whole areas unreachable, communications down and you lot are pissed off because some of the facts maybe wrong.
Give it some time, let us wait for the facts then you can argue your case.
[ maybe you missed the fact that the communications to the Philippine Meteorological Agency are not down, never were, and the data is available for anyone to see http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcarchive_files.html this post is pointing out that media is doing a bad job – why wait until it is all over to point this out? – mod]
The latest Daily Mail headline…
Typhoon Haiyan feared to have killed TEN THOUSAND Filipinos as Vietnam and China now prepare for the worst.
Typhoon Haiyan was a maximum category-five storm with ground winds of up to 235mph.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2494635/Philippines-super-typhoon-Haiyan-powerful-storm-history.html#ixzz2kEyowl00
The images coming out of the Philippines is evidence enough that it was a Cat 5 typhoon.
http://news.sky.com/story/1166188/super-typhoon-haiyan-thousands-feared-dead
[ the first image in your link shows thatched roof beach huts still mostly intact – a Cat5 typhoon would have blown them away – mod ]
Typhoons by their very nature are often hugely destructive. To me its a total and utter waste of everyone’s time debating the exact magnitude since any sustained winds approaching 200mph for an hour or two will change and destroy lives on a scale we in the west find hard to appreciate. Cape Verde hurricanes as destructive as they can be are not in the same realm as some of the enormous Typhoon systems that crop up from time to time.
When you have poor people living in a low area, and a storm surge of ten to fifteen feet comes flooding in on howling winds, you are talking about water over the roofs of single-story houses. Anyone who didn’t heed the warning and leave would face swimming in debris-clogged water in screaming wind. Your odds are not good. (Read first-hand accounts of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.)
Damage diminishes quickly as you move away from the eyewall. Pictures from only fifty miles north or south give the illusion things were not so bad. The people who took a direct hit from the eyewall are under no illusions about the ferocity of the storm.
It is my understanding that the people of the Philippines get hit by more typhoons each year than anyone else, and are better than many give them credit for, when it comes to knowing how to respond. I read “local reports” that over a hundred thousand did heed warnings and get the heck out. However there is great uncertainty about how many foolishly stayed behind. For this reason you get statements that allow the death toll to vary between hundreds and thousands, such as this one:
“Tacloban city administrator Tecson Lim said the death toll in that city, located on Leyte Island, alone “could go up to 10,000,” adding that about 300 to 400 bodies have already been recovered.”
My prayers and sympathies to all who suffered.
What I’ve read is that there was one coastal city near a bay that funneled a storm surge that wasn’t evacuated. A storm surge in the middle of the night quickly flooded parts of the city to a depth of ten feet, killing many in their beds. In the morning, after the waters receded, a good rough estimate of deaths could be made. (Indirectly, this indicates that many lives were saved by evacuation.)
FWarner says:
November 10, 2013 at 12:45 am
“….. Every decent meteorologist knows that the raising of the global average temperature by the best part of 1 degree will have significant impacts on weather events such as these – undeniably so…..”
So any meteorologist who doesn’t know that is not decent?
I suggest you – and all those “decent meteorologists” – look at the data. The overall intensity of hurricanes globally has been falling for decades.
Rob Honeycutt says: @ur momisugly November 9, 2013 at 5:14 pm
This is a particularly callous post, even for WUWT. Fatality numbers are just starting to come in and the latest are now saying over 10,000 have perished.
You people are playing silly number games in the face of real human suffering. You should be ashamed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHY?
Anthony said “Latest report from Red Cross says 1200, which I updated. This came in and Anthony up dated within the hour, so he up-dates from a reasonable source not the MSM very quickly.
Besides we are not the actual cause of these deaths unlike Warmists. We are not making $$$ off of the deaths of the old and vunerable. Queen’s Paycheck Gets Lift From Crown Estate’s Wind-Farms – Crown Estate’s profit grew by 4 percent to 240.2 million pounds in fiscal 2012 on rising revenue from land leased for offshore wind parks. and Scotland’s wealthiest private landowners are on course to earn around £1 billion in rental fees from wind farm companies.
The UK’s idiotic energy policies caused About 2,000 extra deaths… in just the first two weeks of March compared with the average for the same period over the past five years…. This isn’t just more cold weather. It’s cold weather exacerbated by Energy Poverty. Even the BBC agrees there are extra deaths due to fuel poverty.
Warming WHAT Warming?
Gee, why don’t you time your ‘sharp increase’ to cause the maximum amount of deaths?
The government’s Response? Change the statistics! (Where have we seen that before?)
Note the activist group Consumer Focus came up with twice the numbers the government did when using the 10% of income criteria. The World Socialist Web Site came up with
I will leave it to you to calculate the £ per death each large landowner is earning.
These are real deaths not the convoluted
“Global Warming Deaths”lies the MSM likes to try to scare us with.Why? I think the answer is obvious. While the world spent a billion dollars a day on chasing white rabbits down rabbit holes, they made sure that poverty was still around – by denying resources to address it. And it is as much the poverty of the area that is causing the deaths (lack of proper notification, and protection, lack of options). They are feeling a lot of guilt right now for their selfishness, and they want to spread it around.
1. The job of main stream news is to deliver eyeballs to advertisers. The job of main stream news is not fair and accurate reporting.
2. If this was a record strength storm and likelihood of such was predicted by the IPCC and Global Warming Establishment (including government leaders), why haven’t there been preparations made in anticipation? The fact is that the Global Warming Establishment wants to de-carbonize world economies and government leaders don’t really believe in Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. Actions speak louder than words.
3. Theories and causes of Global Warming and Climate Change aside, horrible and powerful typhoons are a fact of life in the Pacific. If citizens are going to cede responsibility for their welfare to their government leaders, they better start holding them responsible.
Since when? I am not disputing the reality, only the “job” description.
The real message from all of this is that disasters like this one have always happened and always will.
Instead of wasting trillions on a non existent problem, we should be using it to address the real problems that people in places like the Philippines face, such as disasters like this, lack of clean drinking water, poor sanitation and a host of other issues.