May produce a dangerous X-class flare that could directly impact Earth
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
Steve Davidson writes:
Right now, today, one of the largest sunspot groups of Cycle 24 – AR1890 – is pointing nearly strait at Earth.
AR1890 has already produced a large X-class Level 3 solar flare Monday. from Spaceweather.com:
X3-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X3-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1890 (Nov. 5th @ 2211 UT).
Here is the X-ray event recorded by the satellites:
And here is video of the AR1890 group burping out an M-Class 3.8 flare yesterday:
UPDATE: Close up movie of AR1890
Long-term, everyone knows we are inching into an extended quiet period of solar inactivity.
Today, and the next couple days, are a very notable exception.
[Let’s hope AR1890 rotates away from Earth with no indigestion while it has us in it’s sights. Monitor spaceweather at WUWT’s solar reference page – Anthony]
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“… sunspot … is pointing nearly strait at Earth.”
—————————————
We’re in dire straights!
While this group is impressive … have you seen the current iSWACygnetStreamer? A HUGE CME comes off the western limb and moves FAST !!! That sunspot will be here in a few days.
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
We have been dodging them of late.
This is exactly why I bought a lead-foil hat. (Available at Walmart-$39.95. The tag says made in China, but that is just to fool the border guards. They are really made in China….)
It is not just a flare that should worry us but the magnetic activity of the sun when the emitted plasma hits Earth’s outer atmosphere. If the magnetic activity is very weak at that time then Earth and Sun’s magnetic field lines may again combine as they did last March 17. Then larger amounts of plasma will be channeled into the upper atmosphere and would heat the stratosphere at the north pole. Fortunately the AO is sitting at around +2 at present. If it suddenly dives to -4 or worse then we will know this has happened with cold consequences for the northern hemisphere.
Another possibility is a very strong X class flare aimed straight at Earth. This could cause a “Carrington” type event, which would be catastrophic for communications, electricity supply and much more.
Keep your fingers crossed that it behaves itself for the next couple of days.
Just cus there are almost no sunspots left, during this peak, it doesn’t lead to them being more likely to kill our satellites or electric grid, does it ?
Knocking on wood as I post this 🙂
(does particle board count as wood?).
I live in North Pole, AK, just outside of Fairbanks. My winter hobby is photographing the Northern Lights, so I’m following this pretty closely. My two primary tools for checking aurora activity is the University of Alaska, Fairbanks website http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast and the NOAA Ovation Aurora website http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
M.C. Kinville says:
November 7, 2013 at 6:23 pm
>>>>>>
Okay, First–NOBODY lives at the North Pole, unless you are Santa. Second, NOBODY living in Alaska would be out photographing the Northern Lights in winter. Third, NOBODY would be following “this” pretty closely.
So, either you are joking us, or you are the real Santa.
(Can I have a new Toyota Tundra 4WD pickup for Christmas?)
Well this explains Super Typhoon Haiyan….
(Two can play the game of spin baby spin especially with the calm mild this fall)
geran says:
November 7, 2013 at 6:35 pm
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I guess you’ll find out x-mas morning, won’t you 🙂
Don’t get your hopes up, those Toyota’s melt his workshop.
If it does burst a Carrington class Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) then before it hits UNPLUG EVERYTHING & Disconnect from the grid.
http://www.zillow.com/homes/North-Pole,-AK_rb/
Mark: ““… sunspot … is pointing nearly strait at Earth.”
—————————————
We’re in dire straights!”
It’s the eye of Sauron. Weep hobbits, and quiver!
Gail Combs says:
November 7, 2013 at 6:41 pm
Well this explains Super Typhoon Haiyan….
(Two can play the game of spin baby spin especially with the calm mild this fall)
—————————-
You might be on to something. We have had 4 significant space weather events since the 25th of last month. Energy is energy in the end.
Where is Werner and JTF ?
We must have some model that can handle 93,000,000 mile smoothing on global climate somewhere> sarc
On a more serious note: We have not had the opportunity to literally stare down the barrel of a Sun gun as we do today with the tools we have. We should see some very good data come from SDO and STEREO, SOHO, and others, near term.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/
In case anyone is interested… here is a link to the article Anthony mentioned that I wrote about AR1890:
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2013/11/07/right-now-today-fear-the-sun/
Over 2,000 people live in the North Pole.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pole,_Alaska
Mega-typhoon, solar flares, and “Thor” opened tonight… hmmm.
David L. Hagen says:
November 7, 2013 at 7:00 pm
If it does burst a Carrington class Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) then before it hits UNPLUG EVERYTHING & Disconnect from the grid.
If I do so, how will I know when it is safe to plug stuff back in and reconnect to the grid? Shall I wait 3 days and do so. Then what will happen?
Just got a notification of X ray event. R3
Confirmed
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
We are going out to friends to play fireworks to celebrate his birthday this evening so I will try to get a rocket into space to see what is going on, although going on past experience they all explode into stars and noise shortly after take off.
My supplier doesn’t say they are space worthy but they are very good.
http://www.kimboltonfireworks.co.uk/
James Bull
Are we really going to have an alarmist post every time a sunspot approaches the center of the sun? Nobody will ever leave their fallout shelters. With alarmist friends like this, who needs alarmist enemies?
It seems I read (here) that previous low solar cycles have produced some CME events that were surprisingly strong.
Ouch I am going to get hit by a solar flare and a super typhoon at the same time.
You call that puny thing a sunspot? You should have seen the sun back in the 90s, when we had a REAL solar maximum – and Global Warming (probably because of it).
We survived that, and we’ll survive this. Next: will a long-overdue Supernova wipe out all life on Earth?????!!!!