![latest_512_4500[2]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/latest_512_45002.jpg?quality=83)
Looks like a double peak for cycle 24 is forming
As many WUWT readers have noted in comments, October 2013 has been significantly more active than the previous several months, and we have not seen this level of activity since October 2011.
At right, is the sun today showing several sunspots of significant size. No splitting hairs on “sunspecks” is needed to elevate the count.
NOAA’s SWPC has updated their graphs, and for the first time in many months, the real data nearly matches the prediction line:
![sunspot[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/sunspot1.gif)
The gain from last month is the largest uptick in solar cycle 24 so far.
Similarly, there was an uptick in 10.7cm radio flux, though it is not even close to the maximum gain seen back in mid 2011.
![f10[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/f101.gif)
However, the Ap index, a proxy for the sun’s magnetic dynamo, continues to bump along the bottom, some thing it has been doing since October 2005, when a significant step change occurred. None of the peaks seen in Cycle 23 in 2004 have yet to be seen.
![Ap[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/ap1.gif)
Steve Davidson writes of his analysis:
I created, from Belgium’s official counts, a graph very similar to NASA’s “Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression” graph maintained on WUWT’s “Solar Page”.
In my story I also review the current status of Solar Cycle 24 predictions and highlight Leif Svalgaard’s contributions to Cycle 24 understanding.
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/october-2013-sunspots-huge-jump/
David Hathaway has also updated his page at NASA Marshall saying:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
His plot:
![ssn_predict_l[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/ssn_predict_l1.gif)
As always, there’s more of interest on WUWT’s Solar Reference Page
Thank you Dr. S. will look this over on the weekend when I can ..
Seems rotating orbiting bodies have hotspots. Earth has 4? N.Pole, S.Pole, (auroral regions) near SAMA and another in the N. hemisphere where more solar charged particles enter. They also correspond with lower sections of the radiation belts.
Carla says:
November 8, 2013 at 12:48 pm
Seems rotating orbiting bodies have hotspots.
All bodies everywhere are rotating and orbiting. Hotspots are temporary, fleeting, and not fundamental.
lsvalgaard says:
November 8, 2013 at 1:03 pm
Carla says:
November 8, 2013 at 12:48 pm
Seems rotating orbiting bodies have hotspots.
All bodies everywhere are rotating and orbiting.
Hotspots are temporary, fleeting, and not fundamental.
———
Fleeting? Temporary? Not fundamental? eh
Looking like the, Svalgaard’ “Hale sector” pattern and hotspots (formerly active zones) are all part of the same phenomenon .. Like the same hot spots found in patterns of “Accretion,”found in orbiting, rotating bodies. heh
Solar ‘hot spots’ are still hot
T Bai – The Astrophysical Journal, 1990
Distribution of flares on the sun during 1955-1985 ‘Hot spots’ (active zones) lasting for 30 years
T Bai – The Astrophysical Journal, 1988
HOT SPOTS FOR SOLAR FLARES PERSISTING FOR DECADES: LONGITUDE DISTRIBUTIONS
OF FLARES OF CYCLES 19–23
T. Bai
Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
accepted 2002 November 15
abstract
…A new analysis method is introduced for investigating whether major flares are clustered in certain fixed
regions of the Sun in rigidly rotating coordinate systems. This method is applied to the analysis of major
flares of solar cycles 19–23. The northern and southern hemispheres are separately analyzed, and it is found
that longitude distributions of flares in the two hemispheres are different. Therefore, the term ‘‘ hot spot ’’ is
used instead of ‘‘ active longitude.’’…
You might want to have a look at this Dr. S.,
Accretion onto Stars with Octupole Magnetic Fields: Matter Flow, Hot Spots and
Phase Shifts
Min Longa, Marina M. Romanov ab, Frederick K. Lamb c,d
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0911.5455.pdf
Carla says:
November 9, 2013 at 1:02 pm
Hotspots are temporary, fleeting, and not fundamental.
Yes, that is right. You got it.
The hotspots live for a while [perhaps thousands of years although most of the time a lot less]. Then go away and new ones pop up.
lsvalgaard says:
November 9, 2013 at 1:33 pm
Carla says:
November 9, 2013 at 1:02 pm
Hotspots are temporary, fleeting, and not fundamental.
Yes, that is right. You got it.
The hotspots live for a while [perhaps thousands of years although most of the time a lot less]. Then go away and new ones pop up.
—————–
Far be it from me to invent some new fandangled cycle to the already cyclomania mess. But you did say “perhaps thousands of years..” Soooooo..
Hot spots on the sun, cycle with LISM (density,speed, magn.field, flow direction).
The hotspots look like they are shifting in longitude from cycle 19 to 23.
I wonder if its related to that 4 to 9 degrees shift in interstellar wind that those 11 spacecraft found?
If the interstellar inflow changes or shifts, then the accretion location shifts and the hotspots shift…
Or no, no no.
Eleven Spacecraft Show Interstellar Wind Changed Direction Over 40 Years
Sept 5, 2013
..The data from these diverse sources shows that the direction of the interstellar wind has changed some 4 to 9 degrees over the last 40 years.
“Previously we thought the local interstellar medium was very constant, but these results show that it is highly dynamic, as is the heliosphere’s interaction with it,” said David McComas, IBEX principal investigator at Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas.
While the reason for – and, indeed, the exact timing of – the shift is still unclear, Frisch pointed out that scientists know our solar system is close to the edge of the local interstellar cloud. Such an area of the galaxy might experience turbulence, and as we hurtle through space, the heliosphere could be exposed to different directions of wind. While the scientists don’t yet know for sure how the direction switch happened, the team believes that additional observations should ultimately explain its cause, giving us even more information about the galaxy that surrounds us….
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/interstellar-wind-changed-direction-over-40-years/
Carla says:
November 9, 2013 at 5:18 pm
The hotspots look like they are shifting in longitude from cycle 19 to 23.
I wonder if its related to that 4 to 9 degrees shift in interstellar wind that those 11 spacecraft found?
For the umpteenth time: what happens at the heliopause does travel upstream.
For the umpteenth time: what happens at the heliopause does not travel upstream.