![latest_512_4500[2]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/latest_512_45002.jpg?quality=83)
Looks like a double peak for cycle 24 is forming
As many WUWT readers have noted in comments, October 2013 has been significantly more active than the previous several months, and we have not seen this level of activity since October 2011.
At right, is the sun today showing several sunspots of significant size. No splitting hairs on “sunspecks” is needed to elevate the count.
NOAA’s SWPC has updated their graphs, and for the first time in many months, the real data nearly matches the prediction line:
![sunspot[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/sunspot1.gif)
The gain from last month is the largest uptick in solar cycle 24 so far.
Similarly, there was an uptick in 10.7cm radio flux, though it is not even close to the maximum gain seen back in mid 2011.
![f10[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/f101.gif)
However, the Ap index, a proxy for the sun’s magnetic dynamo, continues to bump along the bottom, some thing it has been doing since October 2005, when a significant step change occurred. None of the peaks seen in Cycle 23 in 2004 have yet to be seen.
![Ap[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/ap1.gif)
Steve Davidson writes of his analysis:
I created, from Belgium’s official counts, a graph very similar to NASA’s “Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression” graph maintained on WUWT’s “Solar Page”.
In my story I also review the current status of Solar Cycle 24 predictions and highlight Leif Svalgaard’s contributions to Cycle 24 understanding.
http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/october-2013-sunspots-huge-jump/
David Hathaway has also updated his page at NASA Marshall saying:
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 65 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
His plot:
![ssn_predict_l[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/ssn_predict_l1.gif)
As always, there’s more of interest on WUWT’s Solar Reference Page
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Svalgaard, L.,E. W. Cliver, and Y. Kamide (2005), Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest
cycle in 100 years?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L01104, doi:10.1029/
2004GL021664.
” Using direct polar field measurements, now available
for four solar cycles, we predict that the approaching solar
cycle 24 (~2011 maximum) will have a peak smoothed
monthly sunspot number of 75 ± 8, making it potentially the
smallest cycle in the last 100 years.”
Well if NASA know how to smooth data, you’d have been bang on. 😉
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=593
Hi, Anthony,
Well, up here in Washington… (waaaay to the left (ugh), I know), we’re now an hour behind you in Chico. Hm. Earthquake? Plate tectonics?
Janice
(or — sssh! — are you now using Mountain Time just to through those NSA thugs off the track?
— Good thinking!) #(:))
THROW — we are sooo behind, we’re even poor at spelling, up here! (why in the world did I do that?)
Steven Mosher says:
November 4, 2013 at 3:25 pm
your thoughts
I didn’t know there was a problem [I think there isn’t]. Wolf increased the Schwabe numbers by 25% based on Declination from Milan, see slide 6 of
http://www.leif.org/research/Geomagnetic%20Calibration%20of%20Sunspot%20Numbers.pdf
http://www.leif.org/research/SSN/Svalgaard11.pdf
But I have not had time to read their paper yet. Do you have a link to a copy?
Cool! Dr. Svalgaard went BACK in time to post that. You are even more impressive than we already knew, Dr. S! (can I drive the DeLorean next time?)
One wonders when we can expect some additional X class events as we ride the solar coaster.
Hence, my question relating to the appearance\frequency of X class events and the solar cycle in general. We did have several good ones in the last few weeks.
One wonders how technologically vulnerable we have become too, no?
Think about it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, What if you phone didn’t start in the morning and you couldn’t get to work? 😉
(lol, OssQss)
Upon waking up and — WHOA! phone is busted! –!!!
Pippen Kook: Oh, man. I can’t call Oss for a ride. HOW AM I GOING TO GET TO WORK?!!!
Oss (45 minutes later, pulling up in Corvette by curb — honks horn): Hey! I KNEW you’d be calling me for a ride (muttering: ever since I got this car, her car has needed all its spark plugs replaced).
PK: Thank you so much! My phone is my only way to get ANYTHING done!
Oss: Better get those plugs replaced — TODAY — my microwave oven is starting to die, er, …. or something. If I can even start my car in the morning, I definitely won’t be able to drive 5 miles out of my way to pick you up……. AND WHERE’S THAT GAS MONEY YOU KEEP SAYING YOU’LL PAY!
Awareness is the key to survival (in any circumstance!); we are more aware now than we were 30 or 40 years ago. Specifically speaking in regards to commercial AC power transmission now. Don’t fall victim to the continual media ‘hype’ from authors who are not up to speed on measures taken to avoid damage to transmission equipment (like transformers due to GICs – Geomagnetically Induced Currents in the lines WRT the ‘earthed’ or neutral side.)
On account of what exactly (did you have something specific in mind?) Today’s cell sites are linked back to the MTSO via fiber optic links (not sat circuits!) traditionally provisioned and tariffed to the equivalent of DS0 thru DS3 trunks.
.
Oh, _Jim. Puh–leeze. Could YOU get anything done without a phone? #(;))
Grammar edit: “None of the peaks seen in Cycle 23 in 2004 have yet to be seen.” Double negative. Get rid of “None of” or replace “yet to be” with “been”. Your choice. ;p
Jim, my point is not a point, but a question.
How will todays micro circuitry act in an anomalous solar event?
I recalled this video from a few years ago and thought, how much would it take to disrupt this circuit in a chip that controlls a device? I am certain the military has an idea. Just sayin, think about it>
Janice;
After an EMP — what work?
As for time zones, I’m a pretend resident of MST until Sunday, when I will accept the PST internet feed again.
I don’t understand the comment. Janice. Unlike a lot of posters here, I’ve got actual ‘field’ experience operating (provisioning, specifying, overseeing implementation by ops personnel or a contractor) some of these ‘larger’ systems, and, I’ve made the effort to research and understand the others where I don’t have DRE (directly related experience) but can relate having pursued a career in engineering and therefore object to the ‘hype’ proffered by the attention-seeking, technically-ignorant, rumor-mongering ‘press’ … so, back to – what was the implication again?
.
Overblown; we’ve been over this; check the archives.
The ‘power fails’ cited early on in Hawaii after the Starfish Prime detonation as the basis for these rumors actually turned out to be a few series-wired street light strings that were problematic to start with. Note: said antiquated street light strings have long since been replaced.
.
I wonder if there will be a similar event to the one that occurred on March 15, this year when sunspot 1692 produced a 36 minute M1 Earth directed flare. This flare hit Earth nearly 2 days later when there was little solar magnetic activity and this resulted in the magnetic field lines of the the Earth and Sun combining and channeling a large amount of plasma into the North Pole region creating large auroras on March 17, 18 and 19. According to NASA the polar stratosphere heated up 60 deg celsius, which in turn stopped the vortex and then significantly affected the jet streams causing polar air to flood over parts of Europe and North America. The Arctic Oscillation fell below -5 for 3 days, which had only occurred 4 times previously (Feb 1969, March 1970, Dec 2009 and Feb 2010). A huge high pressure system formed over Greenland (1074 mb). This was the highest ever recorded in Greenland and this apparently temporarily destabilised the North American tectonic plate and caused worries about major earthquakes on either San Andreas fault line or the New Madrid fault line. (Note: the last really big quakes on the New Madrid fault line occurred in February 1812 – is there a connection as that winter in Europe was extremely cold?)
It seems that we could have a lot to fear from sporadic flare activity – particularly when the overall magnetic activity of the sun is low.
Too broad a question; where, for starters? In orbit is a different matter vs surface of the earth, inside an atmosphere for instance …
.
Jim, all atmosphere’s would be “where” Solar events don’t discriminate.
The answer in the end is? We don’t know.
Bzzzt. Not completely true. Your earlier line of inquiry suggested what I perceived as ‘effects on satellites’, which can be affected due to charged particle impingement vs in-the-atmosphere where that is not an issue, hence my question to narrow things down.
You want to read about GIC effects (terrestrial, in-the-atmosphere) only and the effect on power grids? Here’s a fairly good return by google on the subject; skip the ‘pop’ websites and pick a few of the pdf sources from industry or edu sites, like these two:
1) “Hydro One GMD Preparedness Plan for Cycle 24”
http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/gmdtf/Hydro%20One%20GMD%20Preparedness%20Plan%20for%20Cycle%2024.pdf
2) “Effects of Geomagnetically Induced Currents on Power Transformers and
Power Systems”
http://www05.abb.com/global/scot/scot252.nsf/veritydisplay/cbd31097f5bd26bfc1257b16002e30f1/$file/A2_304_Cigre2012_1LAB000513_Effects%20of%20geomagnetically%20induced%20currents%20on%20power%20transformers%20and%20power%20systems.pdf
More papers on GIC effects:
https://www.google.com/search?q=gic+currents+effects+power+transformers&oq=GIC+currents&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0.5014j0j7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8#es_sm=93&espv=210&q=gic+currents+effects+power+transformers&start=20
For those more inclined to review an audio-visual review of GIC-related subjects:
Man, _Jim, is my sense of humor THAT off the grid? Wow. I am REALLY a fish out of water here. I think I need to go make a phone call … . (THAT WAS A JOKE) Thank you for giving me the benefit of the doubt (that I was intelligent enough to be attempting a serious response above, lol).
@Ossqss — was your 😉 NOT a wink indicating your no-phone-oh-no-how-to-work statement was a joke? Did YOU get my humor?? Well, you certainly didn’t think it was worth dignifying with a comment. Sorry for the whining — I’m just tired.
Oh, brother.
Sorry, _Jim, for the annoying confusion for you. I wasn’t trying to be a pain — it just comes naturally, heh. Hope all is well with you. I’m still grateful for your kind remarks of about a month ago.
*****************
#(:)) Oh, Brian H — Now, you really (wink) meant you will remain in MST (whisper — how are you going to fool those Dopebama thugs otherwise, yes, they are dumb, but….. now, next Sunday, walk nonchalantly for a couple of miles toward MST land, loudly talking about staying there (then, duck behind a bunch of illegal aliens from south of thee [border] — they’ll never look there — and hustle back to PST ……)).
[Thee border or thy border? Their border? Marked by “Partially sagebrush, rosemary, and thyme?” Mod]
Jim, thanks for the links and Sorry I was a bit amorphous in my postings.
Janice, my bad. It was a Long Monday as a small business owner……
Asta La kiesters to today. Tomorrow is another day >
As my grandma always said…….
When you wake up and don’t see roots, it is a beautiful day!
Oh the irony for me and U2>
My copy of the Nov 2 Science news arrived today. The cover story is “Solar Fizzle – Learning from the sun’s recent doldrums.” Apparently it hasn’t made it onto their web site yet. Good timing, Sun!
It starts with
Hathaway is mentioned and “Stanford University scientists announced that they too had found that the meridional flow was happening at a relatively shallow depth. The team, led by Junwei Zhao….” No mention of Leif (who’s mostly retired) and too busy over here anyway. 🙂
I was pleased to see:
Hathaway gets the last word:
Science News used to be my main source of, well, science news, especially after Scientific American went off course. These days WUWT’s the first stop, and I fondly regard Livingston and Penn’s work the most interesting thing I’ve learned here.
Most everything in the SN article has been reported here by Leif, some of it years ahead of SN.
Thanks Leif!
Hi leif, OT but i thought you’d like to know. I changed my mind again on the source of Earth’s electric field. Our last exchange ended with me finding a paper on a cloud simulation experiment which found super cooled water droplets mixing with ice causes major charge separation and I accepted this as the basis of the water weather cycle being a major causal in the Earth electric field.
Well I decided to unaccept it. I realised that the experiment itself was conducted in earth’s electric field, without which the opposite charges wouldn’t be separated. Charge separation in clouds is an amplifying effect of the Earth’s electric field, but not a significant cause. Causes are between the Earth and space.
As you’ve pointed out to me a few times recently, plasma filled space is very conductive, so can hold very little voltage drop, so it acts like a conducting wire between an object in space and the other objects in space. e.g. the Earth is effectively connected to the solar corona electrically.
Why should Earth have the same surface voltage as the corona? The electric field of the Earth is a result of an external voltage and Earth’s natural voltage.
Why the Earth likes to be 10^7V to space is interesting to speculate. If the Earth was just an electrically dumb conductor it would just take roughly same voltage as space over a relatively short period of time. That’s it’s high voltage persists means it has its own emf generator, I reckon of subsurface origin ( not the water weather ).
@Ossqss — you are too generous, but, thank you. Not your bad. My poor execution of humor.
A small business owner — you are my hero! Thank you for getting up every day and doing what makes America strong — provide jobs (THAT (unlike sitting around in the street on a sleeping bag blocking traffic and holding a sign) is “doing something to change the world”). (even if you only provide a job for yourself at this time, that is terrific). You go, O’s and Q’s!
I hope that the rest of the week goes GREAT.
*******************
Oh, M-ode-erator, you silly. #(:)) Fun humor. Well….. I was TRYING to write an espanol accent so it was like theeeees: Seeeet down theerrrrrre next to the borrrrrrder — and don’t get up until the southbound bus pulls up… . (this is ONLY aimed at those who enter the U.S. illegally)
*************************************
Okay. It has been over 2 hours since anyone but me has posted. I hope it’s okay to go ahead and post a birthday greeting to CODE TECH. (his birthday is tomorrow, but I don’t want to miss in case he checks in and out before I’m up… I told him I’d be posting something, sure hope he sees this)
!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, CODE TECH!
People in your age group often stop and look up in the middle of a busy life and, for the first time, realize that their dreams are not coming true as fast as they had hoped they would. Reality bites. Reassessment can be a good thing, but, don’t give up. You are not even half-way to the end of the road. Take a deep breath and look around you. Life is beautiful. As long as you are breathing, there is hope. So, pause, for awhile…… but, then, get up….. and keep on walking and
Hold on Tight to Your Dreams
Teddy Roosevelt
I believe in you!
Your WUWT pal,
Janice
#(:))
!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!*!