While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this:
Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center remains open, and they’ve updated their solar cycle progression graph set. Today, as we watch the sun we find only two small sunspot groups, both rather anemic.
![latest_512_4500[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/latest_512_45001.jpg?quality=83)
The latest data is not encouraging for Solar Cycle 24 as the SSN numbers have taken a pretty big hit. In fact, all the solar metrics have taken a hit at a time near the peak when their should be many more sunspots and indications of an active solar dynamo.
The SSN numbers for September dropped to about 37:
Radio flux is also down:
And the Ap Index, an indicator of solar magnetic activity is still bumping along the bottom. Compare it to the peaks seen in Solar Cycle 23 in 2004:
Clearly, we’ve passed solar max, as this magnetic field chart showing the magnetic filed has reversed (a signature of solar max) shows:
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
From Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source
It seems that even though the solar magnetic field has flipped, predictions of associated climate doom have not come to pass.
Date: 07/10/13
Sun’s magnetic field about to flip, could affect Earth’s climate
The Sun’s magnetic field is soon going to flip by 180-degrees which could lead to changes in climate, storms and even disrupt satellites, scientists have warned. The Sun’s magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years. It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the Sun’s inner magnetic dynamo re-organises itself.
http://www.thegwpf.org/suns-magnetic-field-flip-affect-earths-climate/
Rather than an active flip, it’s more like the sun is rolling over and playing dead.
More at the WUWT Solar reference page
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I would suggest that solar cycle 24, is running below that of solar cycle 5 which was associated with the Dalton Solar Minimum.
solar slump continues
It will get even more slumpy, or is it slumpier?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN.htm
Sun isn’t an isolated electromagnetic entity, it is the primary component of the wider electromagnetic system .
HenryP says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:50 am
In the Bible, God does indeed literally make the weather happen. He Himself opens the storehouses of rain, hail & snow (Psalms 147:16 & 148:8 & Job 37:6 & 38:22), to let these forms of precipitation drop down onto the flat earth from above the solid vault of heaven (Genesis 1:6, etc.) covering it, with windows or doors through which the sun & moon can pass & from which the stars hang, in danger of falling to earth. He also Personally produces ice, dew, thunder & lightning, along with all other natural phenomena.
http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Job+37&version=NIV
TSI acting as one would expect for solar cycle 24 thus far. Wait a few years from now and then see where it is at.
Again more important when it comes to climate is the EUV flux which is only running around 120, much lower then what it should be for a so called solar cycle maximum.
This cycle is so very weak.
Solar flux average was 102.5 for Sep. closer to typical solar minimum readings, and this was suppose to be the maximum for this cycle. AP INDEX just north of 5.0! This is a maximum for this cycle? What next.
http://books.google.com/books?id=vUtSluaODqYC&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=the+11+year+solar+cycle+continued+during+the+maunder+minimum&source=bl&ots=g4qt3JnWMQ&sig=URAhIGZWdOjfuRpPj4w6ZRNnSx8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=Y-09UtWKFuaHygHOiYCYDg&ved=0CC8Q6AEwATgK#v=onepage&q=the%2011%20year%20solar%20cycle%20continued%20during%20the%20maunder%20minimum&f
I POSTED THIS OFTEN,BUT IT IS A MUST READ. LAST TIME I WILL POST THIS.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:43 am
What will have a climate impact is IF the following solar parameters reach the averages I list below.:
They are the following:
solar flux avg. sub 90
euv light avg. sub 100 units
ap index avg. sub 5.0
cosmic ray count per minute avg. north of 6500
solar irradiance avg. off.015% or more
solar wind avg. sub 350km/sec or lower
imf field avg. 4.0 nt or lower
Salvatore, can you tell me where to find long term trends/data of solar wind?
Thanks,
Seth
“Bill says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:04 am
TSI is just going up and down about 0.1% Guess we’ll find out in a few years (or decades) how much TSI matters versus sunspots. Especially if we have extremely low cycles.
###########
Bill the climate doesn’t see spots. Humans see spots because we have eyes. The climate “sees” TSI. spots are interesting only insofar as they can be connected to or serve as proxies for physical entities which could impact the climate.
vukcevic says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:16 am
Sun isn’t an isolated electromagnetic entity, it is the primary component of the wider electromagnetic system .
Nonsense, the solar wind keeps all [electric and] magnetic influences away
milodonharlani says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/07/september-solar-slump-continues/#comment-1439324
henry says
true
but you missed Isaiah: 40: 21-31
note that not “one star is missing”
because if it were
we would not be here
(as I realized some time ago)
but don’t forget that the bad sometimes goes together with the good
(to prevent more bad?)
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
Be blessed.
Wow these comments are a wild mix.
http://www.solen.info/solar/
this gives solar wind data.
Steven Mosher says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:32 am
The climate “feels” solar magnetism as well as “seeing” TSI. To the extent that sunspots might be a proxy for solar magnetic flux, then, yes, the climate does experience the effect they reflect.
I think these are very exciting solar and climate times!
lsvalgaard says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:33 am
Sun isn’t an isolated electromagnetic entity, it is the primary component of the wider electromagnetic system .
vukcevic says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:16 am
“Nonsense, the solar wind keeps all [electric and] magnetic influences away”
To a point but the wind is effected by those [electric and] magnetic influences and thus in turn they do effect us indirectly… at least at this point. Shifts in solar wind can have…unexpected results…
temp says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:42 am
“Nonsense, the solar wind keeps all [electric and] magnetic influences away”
To a point but the wind is effected by those [electric and] magnetic influences and thus in turn they do effect us indirectly… at least at this point. Shifts in solar wind can have…unexpected results…
Pay attention to the direction of causality. The solar wind and its associated effects come from sun.
solar magnetic flux;
aa index;
solar cycle variations;
coronal holes
[1] Since measurements began in the late nineteenth century, there has been a secular increase (with superposed ripples due to solar cycles) of the aa geomagnetic index [Mayaud, 1972]. Starting from this observation, Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b] conclude that the total open solar magnetic flux has increased by 41% from 1964 to 1995 and by 130% over all but the last 5 years of the twentieth century. However, solar data for more than two solar cycles – Carrington maps from Mount Wilson, and Wilcox Solar Observatories and newly reanalyzed data from the National Solar Observatory – show no secular trend in overall photospheric flux. More importantly, the magnetic flux open to interplanetary space (as calculated from photospheric measurements and assuming potential fields to a height of 2.5 R⊙) fails to show evidence of a secular increase over the last two solar cycles. Like Lockwood et al., we do not explicitly take account of transient events. Thus both data and calculations imply that the Sun’s average coronal magnetic flux has not increased over the last two solar cycles. Analysis of simulations with the potential field source surface model shows that the interplanetary magnetic flux is not simply related to the erupted photospheric solar magnetic flux. Both results are in agreement with the findings of Wang et al. [2000]. The topology, rather than the strength, of the emergent solar magnetic field may be a major determinant of the interplanetary magnetic field experienced at Earth.
This is where the key is with the solar /climate connection and this process has reversed post 2005 in a big way.
I seem to remember that people have correlated cooler temperatures with longer cycles (as opposed to or in addition to lower SSN). The suggestion for Cycle 24 was that it would be long because of the slow ramp up. Since it looks like it is never going to get any higher, how is the estimate of the length of SC24 doing? Are we still looking at 12+?
I guess what I am asking is what metrics are used to forecast/estimate cycle length?
HenryP says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:37 am
You’re right. Not one of the starry host was missing at that time, yet previously in Isaiah & in the New Testament (eg, Matthew 24:29, Mark 13:25, Revelation 6:13 & 8:10) we learn that in the end time, the stars will indeed fall to earth.
Isaiah 34:4: All the stars in the sky will be dissolved and the heavens rolled up like a scroll; all the starry host will fall like withered leaves from the vine, like shriveled figs from the fig tree.
lsvalgaard says:
October 7, 2013 at 9:36 am
Today, as we watch a the sun we find only two small sunspot groups, both rather anemic.
(SIDC reports for today 5 groups, Kanzelhohe 7 groups, NOAA 5 groups, Catania 10 groups, Crimea 4 groups.)
Bet you woudn`t see 10 groups with this.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Galileoscope2.jpg
or this,
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Scheinerscope2.jpg
Robuk says:
October 7, 2013 at 10:50 am
“(SIDC reports for today 5 groups, Kanzelhohe 7 groups, NOAA 5 groups, Catania 10 groups, Crimea 4 groups.)”
Bet you woudn`t see 10 groups with this.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/Galileoscope2.jpg
Irrelevant as the modern group count of about 5 is determined using telescopes like this:
http://www.leif.org/research/Wolf-37mm.png.
Leif and Mosher,
I was not clear in my previous post. I understand that TSI is supposed to be the main player.
I was referring to this graphic
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
and the fact that here the TSI over the last few years is cycling (randomly?) up and down
with small changes. I will look at the new graphs you posted Leif. Are those normalized in some way when the two cycles are plotted?
However, people do refer to an “active” sun w.r.t. sunspots (including Leif I believe) and what we see does depend on local magnetic effects on the sun. The sunspots are
actually cooler (as you both know) so I found that interesting a few years back. It is also interesting that historically several cold periods did seem to coincide with low sunspot cycles. Leif tells me the understanding here is low to medium and that he believes this could actually be due to volcanic activity. I was merely commenting that if indeed we go through some very low sunspot cycles, we will see what happens to temperatures and we should have good measurements of a variety of solar parameters so it will be interesting times over the next 5-20 years and we should learn a lot about the sun and its effect on climate.
Sun’s magnetic field about to flip, could affect Earth’s climate
Polar field flip not as such, but it is a precursor to the sunspot polarity change at the next minimum, that is the one that matters:
How? you might ask.
According to NASA the sunspot magnetic cycle polarity change interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field.
“solar coronal mass ejections CMEs in the even-numbered solar cycles tend to hit Earth more often with a leading edge that is magnetized north. Such CMEs open a breach and load the magnetosphere with plasma starting a geomagnetic storm “
To test NASA’s observation taking account sunspot cycles polarity, alternating in and out of the phase with the Earth’s magnetic field, and using available geomagnetic data, combining two magnetic fields (solar and the Earth’s) gives a very familiar ‘oscillation’ waveform
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm
Since this was strongly disputed by Dr. Svalgaard, the Stanford’s solar expert, a further analyses established more evidence of the Sun-Earth electromagnetic link, this time revealed as change in the rate of Earth’s rotation or LOD
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm
As the polar fields extrapolation of the equation was ridiculed some years ago, but now proven by the events, the above two findings are also declared ‘numerology’ and pseudoscience.
Antagonism of the establishment with the ‘blue skies’ ideas and research is nothing new.
Bill says:
October 7, 2013 at 11:06 am
and the fact that here the TSI over the last few years is cycling (randomly?) up and down
with small changes.
Actually, the up-down ‘cycles’ you see are not really due to changes in [real] TSI, but are simply due to the fact that the Sun is rotating and that activity is not evenly distributed in longitude. To first approximation one side of the Sun has most of the activity [for the moment] and so when that activity side rotate onto the backside we see a dip in TSI and sunspot number and F10.7 microwave flux, then when the Sun rotates the activity onto the earth-side we see the peaks.
vukcevic says:
October 7, 2013 at 11:09 am
Antagonism of the establishment with the ‘blue skies’ ideas and research is nothing new.
Antagonism of scientists with worthless pseudo-science is nothing new and is as it should be.