By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Three-quarters (rounded up to 97.1%) of all commenters expressing an opinion on my recent post about Dana Nuccitelli’s attempt at ex-post-facto justification of the false assertion in the lamentable Cook et al. paper of a non-existent 97.1% “scientific consensus” that turned out on peer-reviewed inspection to be 0.3%, enjoyed the name-calling in the post. A quarter did not. To them, sorry.
One of the non-placets asked if I could summarize the argument without the insults. Certainly, sir. I have redrafted the posting as a letter asking the editor of Environmental Research Letters, which had published that gravely misleading paper, to withdraw it and to announce that he has done so. All who would like to add their names to mine on the letter before I send it, please send an email to Anthony, who will pass it to me. Many thanks.
——————————————————————————————————
Professor Daniel Kammen
Editor, Environment Research Letters
12 September 2013
Dear Professor Kammen,
Request for withdrawal of a misleading paper
published in Environmental Research Letters
For the reasons that follow, we are now requesting you to withdraw a defective and gravely misleading paper published in Environment Research Letters on 15 May 2013.
The paper, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature, was by John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting and Andrew Skuce of the polemical website “Skeptical Science”; Sarah Green of the Department of Chemistry at Michigan Technological University; Mark Richardson of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading; Robert Way of the Department of Geography at the Memorial University of Newfoundland; and Peter Jacobs of the Department of Environmental Science and Policy at George Mason University. Copies go to all authors.
The introduction to the Cook paper said:
“We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC [the abstracts of 11,944 papers on global climate change], published over a 21 year period [1991-2012], in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)”.
The Cook paper’s definition of “scientific consensus”, emboldened by us for clarity, is the standard or quantitative definition adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which, in its Assessment Reports of 2001 and 2007, considered it probable that more than half of the 0.7 Cº global warming since 1950 was manmade.
Computerized and manual examination of the data-file assembled by the authors of the Cook paper, which they appear to have released only some weeks after their paper had appeared, showed that they had categorized and marked as few as 64 abstracts out of 11,944, or 0.5% of the entire sample, as explicitly endorsing the “scientific consensus” as they had defined it in their introduction.
Further examination of the 64 abstracts by Legates et al. (2013) showed that only 41, or 0.3% of the entire sample, had in fact explicitly endorsed the “scientific consensus” as defined.
However, the Cook paper concluded with these words:
“Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.”
The authors, having stated at the outset their intention to determine the level of
“scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)”,
and having listed
“(1) Explicit endorsement with quantification (explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of recent global warming)”
as the first of seven “levels of endorsement” to which they assigned the 11,944 abstracts, did not state in their paper that they had categorized only 64 out of 11,944 abstracts as having explicitly endorsed the “scientific consensus” as defined. To conceal how very small this number was, they added together all of the abstracts they had assigned to the first three of their seven categories, and did not state the three values separately.
The seven categories or “levels of endorsement” in the Cook paper were –
1 “Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of global warming”
2 “Explicit endorsement without quantification”
3 “Implicit endorsement”
4 “No opinion or uncertain”
5 “Implicit rejection”
6 “Explicit rejection without quantification”
7 “Explicit rejection with quantification”
Mr. Nuccitelli, one of the authors of the Cook paper, has written a posting on the “Skeptical Science” blog in which he sought to justify the discrepancy between the 0.5% of abstracts that Legates et al. had shown the Cook paper had assigned to the “explicit endorsement with quantification” category and the “97.1% based on abstract ratings” that the conclusion of the Cook paper had claimed endorsed the “scientific consensus” as defined:
“The IPCC position (humans causing most global warming) was represented in our categories 1 and 7, which include papers that explicitly endorse or reject/minimize human-caused global warming, and also quantify the human contribution. Among the relatively few abstracts (75 in total) falling in these two categories, 65 (87%) endorsed the consensus view.”
From this series of admissions, it is evident that the authors of the Cook paper are now claiming 87% (not 97.1%) “scientific consensus” – but that they are doing so on the basis of a sample size that has shrunk from 11,944 to just 75 papers, arbitrarily and improperly eliminating 99.4% of the papers in the original sample. No scientific survey or opinion poll with a sample size of less than 1000 would normally be regarded as statistically significant.
Even then, Mr. Nuccitelli’s account of events contains an obvious error. For none of those abstracts that the Cook paper had assigned to categories 5 and 6 (explicit or implicit rejection of the consensus without quantification), as well as none of those in category 7 (explicit rejection with quantification), endorsed the “scientific consensus” as defined.
There were 41 abstracts explicitly endorsing the IPCC’s version of consensus. But there were not only 9 in level 7 but also 54 in level 5 and 15 in level 6. Total sample size was thus only 119 out of 11,944 papers, or just 1% of an already smallish sample of the entire literature.
Accordingly, even on Mr. Nuccitelli’s arbitrary basis, endorsement for the “scientific consensus” as defined was not the 87% he asserts on behalf of his co-authors in the above-cited passage, but just 34.5%. That is little more than one-third of the 97.1% endorsement that the Cook paper had originally claimed for the “scientific consensus” as defined.
Nowhere does the Cook paper make it plain that the sample size on the basis of which the claim of 97.1% endorsement for the “scientific consensus” is made was so tiny.
In an article Study reveals scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, posted at http://www.iop.org/news/13/may/page_60200.html, the Institute of Physics wrote:
“Co-author of the study Mark Richardson, from the University of Reading, said: ‘We want our scientists to answer questions for us, and there are lots of exciting questions in climate science. One of them is: are we causing global warming? We found over 4000 studies written by 10 000 scientists that stated a position on this, and 97 per cent said that recent warming is mostly man made.’”
We can discern no basis for the claim made in the above passage by one of the authors of the Cook paper that 97% of the 4000 papers that had stated a position on the “scientific consensus” had “said that recent warming is mostly man made”. The claim is false.
The central, and irremediable, error in the Cook paper is that the authors, by not adhering scrupulously throughout to the definition of “scientific consensus” that they had stated at the outset was the basis of their inquiry, were implying that if 97.1% of those abstracts that had expressed some sort of an opinion on global warming had said or implied that Man could cause some warming (their categories 5 and 6), those same 97.1% would also say or imply that Man caused at least half the global warming since 1950 (their category 7).
We are disappointed at the authors’ apparent attempt to conceal the fact that they had been able to categorize only a very small number of papers as explicitly endorsing the “scientific consensus” as they had themselves defined it; that, even then, they had miscategorised one-third of the 64 papers they had marked as endorsing that “scientific consensus”; that their methodological defects are numerous and fundamental; that they failed to disclose that their effective sample size was not 11,944 nor even 4000 papers but 119, rendering the entire exercise statistically meaningless; and that one of the co-authors has incorrectly stated in a public scientific forum that 97% of abstracts expressing an opinion on global warming had “said that recent warming is mostly man made”, when only 1% of those expressing an opinion and 0.3% of the entire sample had in fact done so.
One of us wrote a corrective commentary and submitted it to the editor of Environment Research Letters, and, upon request, subsequently shortened and resubmitted the commentary, but received no further reply.
In the circumstances, we now request that the manifestly defective and gravely deceptive Cook paper be withdrawn forthwith. We should be grateful if you would make an early announcement to that effect, and if you would kindly let us know when you have done so.
Yours truly,
Monckton of Brenchley (and, I hope, others)
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Here is Monckton’s request letter (added)
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Professor Daniel Kammen, Editor, Environment Research Letters
14 September 2013
Dear Professor Kammen,
Request for withdrawal of a gravely misleading paper
Please withdraw the gravely misleading paper, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature (May 15, Environment Research Letters). The paper claimed a 97.1% “scientific consensus” among the abstracts of 11,944 climate change papers published from 1991-2012. The true “consensus” was not 97.1%. It was 0.3%.
The defective paper’s introduction said:
“We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC [the abstracts of 11,944 papers on climate change], published over a 21 year period [1991-2012], in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)”. [my emphases]
The paper’s definition of “scientific consensus” is thus the standard, quantified definition adopted by the IPCC, which, in its Assessment Reports of 2001 and 2007, considered it very likely that most of the 0.7 Cº global warming since 1950 was manmade.
Computerized and manual examination by Legates et al. (2013) of the authors’ data-file, made available only some weeks after the paper had appeared, showed that on that file the authors had marked as few as 64 abstracts out of 11,944 (0.5% of the entire sample) as explicitly endorsing that “scientific consensus” as defined in the introduction to their paper.
Legates et al., on further examining the 64 abstracts, found that only 41 of them, or 0.3% of the entire sample, had in fact explicitly endorsed that “scientific consensus”. However, the defective paper you published concluded with these words:
“Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.”
The authors had stated at the outset their intention to determine the level of
“scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)”. [my emphases]
They had listed this standard, quantified definition of “scientific consensus” in their paper as
“(1) Explicit endorsement with quantification (explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of recent global warming)”, [my emphases]
the first of seven “levels of endorsement” to which they assigned the abstracts. Yet they did not disclose in their paper how few abstracts – just 64 – they had marked as having stated support for that standard, quantified “scientific consensus”.
To conceal how very small this number was, they added together all of the abstracts they had assigned to the first three of their seven categories, treating all three categories as one, and did not state the three values separately. An impartial peer reviewer would have spotted this.
The seven categories or “levels of endorsement” listed in the paper, with the abstracts marked on the data file or disclosed in the paper as falling within each category, were –
| Level of endorsement of “scientific consensus” in 11,944 abstracts |
Marked |
Disclosed |
|
| 1 | Explicitly states that humans are the primary cause of global warming |
64 |
┐ |
| 2 | Explicit endorsement without quantification [We cause some warming] |
922 |
│ 3896 |
| 3 | Implicit endorsement |
2910 |
┘ |
| 4a | No opinion |
7930 |
7930 |
| 4b | Uncertain |
40 |
40 |
| 5 | Implicit rejection |
54 |
54 |
| 6 | Explicit rejection without quantification |
15 |
15 |
| 7 | Explicit rejection with quantification |
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
||
| Total |
11,944 |
11,944 |
One of the authors has sought to justify the discrepancy between the 0.5% of abstracts they marked as “1” (“explicit endorsement with quantification”) and the “97.1% based on abstract ratings” that their conclusion had misrepresented as endorsing the “consensus” as defined:
“The IPCC position (humans causing most global warming) was represented in our categories 1 and 7, which include papers that explicitly endorse or reject/minimize human-caused global warming, and also quantify the human contribution. Among the relatively few abstracts (75 in total) [actually 73] falling in these two categories, 65 (87%) [actually 64] endorsed the consensus view.” [my emphases]
The authors, then, are now claiming 87% (not 97.1%) “scientific consensus” – but are doing so on the basis of a sample size that has shrunk from 11,944 to just 73 papers, improperly eliminating 99.4% of the papers in the original sample. No scientific survey or opinion poll with a sample size less than 1000 would normally be recognized as having any meaning.
Even then, none of the abstracts the authors had marked as falling within categories 5-7 could possibly be said to have endorsed the “scientific consensus” as defined.
There were 41 abstracts explicitly endorsing the IPCC’s version of consensus. But, rejecting any anthropogenic influence, there were not only 9 in level 7 but also 54 in level 5 and 15 in level 6. Thus, 78 papers rejected any definition of “scientific consensus”.
Total sample size was thus only 119 out of 11,944 papers, or just 1% of an already smallish literature sample. Nowhere does the paper admit that the sample size on the basis of which the claim of 97.1% (now 87%) endorsement of “scientific consensus” is made was so small.
Even on that author’s newly-proclaimed and strange basis, endorsement for the “scientific consensus” as defined was not the 87% he now asserts but just 41 in 119, or 34.5% – a third of the 97.1% endorsement originally claimed for that “scientific consensus”.
In an article entitled Study reveals scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, posted at http://www.iop.org/news/13/may/page_60200.html, the Institute of Physics cites one of the paper’s authors:
“Co-author of the study [name and institution] said: ‘We want our scientists to answer questions for us, and there are lots of exciting questions in climate science. One of them is: are we causing global warming? We found over 4000 studies written by 10 000 scientists that stated a position on this, and 97 per cent said that recent warming is mostly man made.’” [my emphases]
I can discern no rational basis for that author’s claim that 97% of the 4014 abstracts that had stated a position on the “scientific consensus” had “said that recent warming is mostly man made”. The author’s claim, like the claim made in the conclusion of the paper itself, is false.
The authors had not adhered throughout to the definition of “scientific consensus” that their introduction had stated was the basis of their inquiry. They were implying, in effect, that since 97.1% of the 4014 abstracts had stated or implied that Man could cause some warming (categories 2-3), those same 97.1% were also stating or implying that Man caused most of the global warming since 1950 (category 1).
I am disappointed – and so should you be –
- that the paper had erroneously and gravely over-claimed 97.1% “scientific consensus;
- that the authors had tried to conceal that they had had categorized only 64 abstracts out of 11,944 as explicitly endorsing the “scientific consensus” as they had defined it;
- that, even then, the authors had miscategorised 23 of the 64 abstracts as endorsing that “scientific consensus” when the 23 had not in fact endorsed it;
- that the authors had failed to disclose that their effective sample size was not 11,944 nor even 4014 papers but just 119, rendering the entire exercise meaningless;
- that, on the basis that one of the authors now says was intended, that author says they had meant 87% consensus (not 97%) among just 73 abstracts (not 4014);
- that the true “scientific consensus”, after correcting an obvious error in the newly-asserted (and still strange) basis for calculation, would be 34% of just 119 abstracts;
- that the authors had failed to admit that only 1% of the 4014 abstracts they marked as expressing an opinion had endorsed the “scientific consensus” as they had defined it;
- that the authors had failed to disclose that only 0.3% of all 11,944 abstracts had endorsed that “scientific consensus”;
- that the authors had not adhered to a single definition of “scientific consensus”; and
- that one of the authors, in a public scientific forum, continues in defiance of the truth to assert that 97.1% had “said that recent warming is mostly man made”, when very nearly all of the abstracts had neither stated nor implied any such thing.
The paper you published is not merely defective: it is deceptive. It claims that 97.1% endorsed a “scientific consensus” that at most 1% had endorsed. You cannot let it stand.
I submitted a corrective commentary to you. Upon request, I subsequently shortened and resubmitted the commentary, but I received no further reply.
In the circumstances, to protect your journal’s reputation and those of its Board members from any allegation of scientific misrepresentation, you must withdraw the paper forthwith. Please make an early announcement to that effect, and let me know when you have done so.
Copies go to all members of your board. I await your reply.
Yours truly,
cc. Professor Myles Allen myles.allen@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Professor Maohong Fan mfan@uwyo.edu
Dr. Peter Gleick pgleick@pipeline.com
Dr. Jose Goldemberg cominicacao@iee.usp.br
Professor Giles Harrison r.g.harrison@reading.ac.uk
Professor Tracey Holloway taholloway@wisc.edu
Professor Klaus Keller klaus@psu.edu
Professor Jakob Mann jmsq@dtu.dk
Please add my name – JLP Mackenzie
Please add my name.
Please add my name too, I don’t know how to send an email to Anthony in support of this worthy cause.
Add my name.
They haven’t withdrawn that paper yet? Are you kidding me? Sign me up.
Also add my name
Gregory Adams approves of this message.
Add me…
Please add my name as well
Add mine too.
I am more than happy to add my name.
My name also, please.
Me too
Please add my name!
Me too.
====================================================================
As Anthony has said, his email is a “fire hose”.
Is there something we should put in the subject to make it easier for him to sort and forward?
Perhaps, “Crowd source complaint”?
Also, some of us don’t comment using our real names. Is our “commenter” name OK?
I’m willing to add my real name via Anthony but some may not be willing. Should the [latter] bother?
I thought Lord Monckton requested emails to Anthony. I need Anthony’s email address. Maybe its just me, but I couldn’t find the address on the page.
Please add my name:
Carlton Yee, PhD
By all means, please include my name.
Add me.
Me too!
Add me to the consensus please.
Happy to oblige, as soon as Anthony tells us the best way to add our names
Add my name. Ron Olsthoorn
Thanks and add me too.
Is there any justification for Mark Richardson to continue with his position at the University, if he is so disregarding of the facts?
Definitely add me.
I’m Spartacus!
And me!
Count me in too, for what it’s worth (not much, I know).
Email supporting the letter sent through contact form
Please add my name
Please add my name to the letter.
Add my name.
Please add my name.
Please include my name as well
Robert Phillips,
email sent…
Add my name
please add my name
Please add my name
Add me please.
You may add mine as well: L. E. Joiner
Please, add also my name.
Add my name.
Being a medical doctor, I use an online ekename (“handle”) to avoid distressing both my patients and the institutions with which I’ve become associated over the decades, but Tucci78 does seem to have become uniquely identifiable on the Web.
Does certainly bloat and inflame the spleens of Watermelons whenever I post, doesn’t it?
So add me to your list of names.
By the bye, has anyone a link to Mr. Monckton’s earlier insult-laden response to this barrowload of bullpuckey? I rather enjoy vituperation for its own sake, consider it something of an art form.
Please add my name.
Eric S. Elsam
I added my name via the Contact form, along with my Town,State. This might be more useful than just a first and last name. We are real people and we want to be counted!
Count me in.
Please add my name.
======================================================================
(MODS, if this is wrong, feel free to delete.)
On the title bar click on “About”. You’ll get a pull down. One of the options is “Contact”.
I put “Crowd source complaint” as the subject to make it easier on Anthony.
Add my name.
Please add my name.
I am more than happy, though a mere lay observer, to be included in squashing this insanity.
David Grogan
Please add my name. Wayne Martin, Ph.D. (Physical Oceanography)
Email supporting the letter sent through contact tab.
You know, I didn’t realize there was a Contact Form (in the About menu). I remember there didn’t use to be an obvious way to contact Anthony; glad to see it was added at some point. It’s hard to keep up!
/Mr Lynn
Thank you for doing this. Please add my name. It is L. Scott Henderson, PE. I live in Seattle, WA (zip is 98146), if that is helpful to know.
Please my name as well.
Please add me to the list as well. Despite that fact that my Robot is screaming Danger Danger! I know he would like to be added as well. You see he knows that all those things did not happen — er — I mean won’t — you know what I mean!
David Foster Baskwill. (Count me in.)
Deal me in!
Patrick J. Michaels, PhD
Please add me (as I’m not sure whether a comment here is sufficient, so I’ll try and email anthony, too)
Please add my name
Augustine B. O’Brien
Twyford Reading Berkshire
United Kingdom
Glenn Hawley would have his name added, please
Please add my name.
AGW: history’s most monumental garbage-in-garbage-out distraction.
Add my name too: Antony Eggleston
Add my name please.
Add my name, Richard C. Haack
Add my name:
Jerome Hudson, PhD (Physics)
Add my name.
For all Australians contributing to this forum get a copy of this weekend Australian newspaper that has an excellent article by Judith Curry criticising the concensus approach. And yes it also has one by Mr Cook that looks totally lame in comparison. And low and behold Flannery chips in also saying the current models take into account solar variations. Why they give this guy “oxygen” is beyond my understanding. But his drival makes him look even more foolish – if that’s possible.
Please add mine too.
Equivocating on the definitions of such terms as ‘global warming’ and ‘the consensus’ is their primary means of making their fallacious ad verecundiam arguments. You cant take that from them. What will they have left? /sarc
Anthony, add my name to LMs letter. Append “practicing natural resource scientist and numeric modeler” as that sort of thing seems to have meaning to the pseudoscientific political hacks gatekeeping at journals like ERL.
For that matter, please append my assessment that they are a bunch of pseudoscientific, gatekeeping, political hacks. Not because it means anything to them, but to me.
I can’t see an email button so please add my name.
Stephen K Richards BSc Physics. MSc Physics of semiconductor materials and devices.
Add my name, Jonathan Baer
Thanks
Please add my name
add my name
Science is not about consensus! Add my name.
please include my name too
Science is not about consensus, add my name!
Please add my name.
Add me, Mr Monckton 🙂 And keep up your great work 🙂
I’ve made the contact to ask to add my name to the letter. Thank you for letting us participate.
You can email Anthony by using the ‘contact’ form on the “About” drop down box, which is what I did thanks to an earlier poster.
Please include me (John Billot) a non-entity UK tax payer!
Add my name, Robert Capetola, Ph.D.
Count me in please.
Tez Hardwick BSc(Hons)
Please add my name too
Like asking the Pope to denounce Catholicism…
However, to give it a chance, add me
Andy Deady
BSc (Hons) Geology (The Victoria University of Manchester – the one before it renamed itself “Earth Sciences” Department and CAGW polluted it)
oh, an Chartered Engineer registered with the Engineering Council of Great Britain.
Bobby Valentine, PhD (Physics)
And me, and me…
James Heilman
Could not agree more
Add my name.
My real name is Christine Ann Kelley. Please add my name.
Add my name.
Me too
A R Collingwood B.Sc (Hons), retired European Patent Attorney
Me too, please.
I wouldn’t worry about the integrity of my pseudonym if I had one. Fake names do not seem to be appropriate in a protest against a fake.
Please add my name to your letter to the editor of the Environmental Research Letters.
Add my name, please.
Not simply incorrect, this overwhelming consensus talking point is lie. I see this sound byte on CNN and BBC all the time. They are getting desperate because they can’t explain away the recent leveling off in temperature rise.
Please add my name
David Skurnick
Fellow, Casualty Actuarial Society
My name added through the Contact Us page. I wonder what sort of response will be forthcoming.
Via Contact (drop down box) I’ve added my name, location and profession.
Best of luck with the Complaint. It will be interesting to see what happens.
JMH
I’m in:
Galen R. Haugh, BS, MS (Geology); BS, ME (Mining Engineering)
I’m in 100%.
Add me, please.
I’m in via Contact Us page
Please add my name.
Myrna Sales, PhD
Please add my name to the Request. Nicholas Tesdorf
Please add my name as well,
Andy May
Petrophysicist
Please add my name: Michael B. Combs, MBA, CPA, Gualala, California
Proud to join you: Patrick J Brennan, PE
I’m up for it!
Anthony, please forward my email address too – if a full name is required it is Kevin Armstrong Engineering Geologist, M.Sc, B.Sc(Hons)
Please add my name:
Susan Oliver BSc (Hons)
I’m late to the show but I’m solidly behind this initiative.
Jan Christoffersen, PEng
Jan, just get off the golf course?
Add me.
Ian Bilquist
BSc (Geology)
Please add my name as well.
Daryl Bergmann
Please [add] my name.
Thank you for the privilege, add my name, please!
Pls. add my name to the list.
And my name also…Benjamin Douglas
Please add my name — Jon Jermey.
email sent with name and address .might be an idea for those using other social media outlets to post a link up to this.i am sure there would be a big response.
This petition should also be sent to every member of the BBC Trust, the BBC Executive Board and the Non-executives.
“Dear BBC, we, the taxpaying public, have had enough of the lying propaganda you publish and broadcast on a daily basis about “global warming”, or “climate change”, or whatever you are calling it this month.
One of the most persistent lies you disseminate is that of the so-called “98% consensus” of climate scientists who agree with the assertion that changes in the Earth’s climate are largely driven by man-made carbon dioxide, or “carbon emissions” as you prefer to call it.
This lie is repeated by every broadcaster you employ, including your so-called “Environment Analyst” Roger Harrabin, and no effort is spared in spreading the misinformation via selected guests on your various programs, such as Radio 4’s Saturday Review on Saturday September 14th.
In view of the information attached, which proves conclusively the lie about the “98% consensus” we demand you either stop deliberately disseminating this deception to your audiences and readers or provide a comprehensive explanation to the public as to why you refuse to do so.
—
BBC HQ
BBC Broadcasting House
London
W1A 1AA
Tel: +44 370 010 0222
Tel: 020 7743 8000
Tel: 08700 100 222 if you want to complain about a programme
info@bbc.co.uk
—
BBC BOSSES AND COMPLAINTS PROCEDURES
If you want to email them direct, then it is usually firstname.lastname@bbc.co.uk
THE BBC TRUSTEES
Lord Patten
Chairman
Diane Coyle
Vice Chairman
Sonita Alleyne
Trustee
Richard Ayre
Trustee
Anthony Fry
Trustee
Alison Hastings
Trustee for England
David Liddiment
Trustee
Bill Matthews
Trustee for Scotland
Aideen McGinley
Trustee for Northern Ireland
Elan Closs Stephens
Trustee for Wales
Suzanna Taverne
Trustee
Lord Williams
Trustee
—
The Director-General of the BBC
The Director-General is the Chief Executive Officer and the Editor-in-Chief of the BBC. He is the editorial, operational and creative leader of the organisation, with responsibility for the Corporation’s global workforce and all of the BBC’s services across television, radio and online.
The Director-General chairs the BBC Executive Board, which consists of six other executive directors, and four non-executive directors.The Executive Board manages the BBC. It is responsible for operational management and for the delivery of BBC services according to the plans that have been agreed with the BBC Trust.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
Tony Hall, Director-General
Helen Boaden, Director, Radio
Danny Cohen, Director, Television
James Harding, Director of News and Current Affairs
Lucy Adams, Director, HR
Anne Bulford, Managing Director,Operations and Finance
James Purnell, Director, Strategy & Digital
NON-EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
Simon Burke
Sally Davis
Dame Fiona Reynolds DBE
Brian McBride
—
MAKING A COMPLAINT TO THE BBC
Complaints page
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/
Complain online
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/complain-online/
The Feedback program (quite a useless program, really)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/feedback/
feedback@bbc.co.uk
Phone:
03700 100 222*
03700 100 212* (textphone)
*24 hours, charged as 01/02 geographic numbers
By Post:
BBC Complaints
PO Box 1922
Darlington
DL3 0UR
How the BBC handles complaints
http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/handle-complaint/
How and when to complain:
To help us report and handle complaints efficiently, we ask you to contact us using our central website, phone number or postal address. If you do not, we cannot guarantee your complaint is seen by the right people or that you will receive a reply. If you need access assistance please contact us.
If you have a complaint about a BBC item which was broadcast or published, either online or in a BBC owned magazine, you should normally complain within 30 working days of the transmission or publication (there are some exceptions to this time limit so please read the full procedures). Please make one complaint rather than multiple issues which may complicate any investigation and delay our reply. For the full complaints procedures please visit the BBC Trust website (http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/governance/complaints_framework/). You can also complain to Ofcom – details at Where to complain (http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/where-to-complain/)
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Please add me.
Mike Gee BA (Maths), Bsc (Maths & Physics)
I’m ‘in’, via the Contact form under the ‘About’ tab at top of page.
And proud to be in such company as above!
MtK
Please ad my name Phineas Sprague Jr. BA Geology, MBA
Add my name.
Jiri Moudry
Please add my name as well: Allyson Everard
Please add me as well.
Joseph Shaw. MS (Operations Research)
Please add my name – and well done, milord!
Please add my name: Niels K. Winsor, PhD Astrophysics (Princeton University)
Aye! Please add me in as one of the signatories to Lord Moncktons request!
A. Ted Kowalski
Fredericksburg, VA USA
If you need the email instead, I can send; but I would think a script grabbing them out of this thread would be quicker. Once grabbed, the script could archive the thread if necessary.
Such a sensible request. Add my name
Add mine too
Please add my name. Unbelievable non-science.
Add my name : E.W.Spiers, PhD (Physics)
Please add my name as well. I have also sent a message on the contact form.
M J Taylor (Dip ES)
I heartily support the request by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley. The paper by Cook et al should be withdrawn by the Editor of Environment Research Letters. It is patently and embarrassingly bad.
Colin Knipe
Chartered Engineer, Chartered Geologist, Fellow of the Geological Society of London, Past Chairman of the Institution of Geologists [UK]
Add name as well.
Add my name
And my name.
please add my name. the farce is just about over
Please add my name.
Add my name.
And mine – thanks…
Please add my name too (Greg Everard, Binda, NSW, Australia)
Thanks
Cheers
Greg
Mine too. Edit it as you see fit.
Robin Harwood,
PhD (Philosophy) – University of Reading
MA (Applied Linguistics) – University of Reading
BA (Hons) (Philosophy) – University of Adelaide
Cert Ed (Tertiary) – University of London.
But I have to admit that I have never offered Whiskas to my cat, so I can’t say whether she prefers it or not.
Please add my name…
Please add my name: Scott Scarborough.
Please add my name.
(proper information sent via e-mail)
From outside the Anglosphere (but hey – academe is by definition part of it):
Ulrich Elkmann
D-48366 Laer
Germany
Please add it.
Michael Busby Dip IT (Network Engineering)
I’m in, be nice if this gets the exposure it needs.
Please add my real name, too.
Please add me to the signatories.
Pat Williams. Count me in.
@Ulrich Elkmann
“From outside the Anglosphere”
You know there’s no acceptable excuse for that, don’t you?
Please add my real name, too.
I would suggest deleting this post and starting over with better, and though through for future use, directions.
I think we certainly have active paricipation 😉
Make it count>
Please add mine:
Robert A Cook, PE
BS, Nuclear Engineering,
MS, Quality Assurance/Statistical Process Control
Me too…Gopal Panicker…chemical engineer
Add me as well:
Gregory Olsen
BS Mechanical Engineering
Please add my name as well.
Douglas Taft
Northfield, Vermont
Science by petition? So that’s how it works. And I thought…
added my name via contact mode.
Honors to the great Moncton, the WUWT team, and all others fighting for honest science and truth.
Margaret Hardman says:
September 20, 2013 at 8:32 pm
Science by petition? So that’s how it works. And I thought…
—————————————————-
You really are a scientific dimwit aren’t you.
WTF does this have to do with science ??
Why don’t you mark the Cook paper yourself school ma’m and tell us if it’s a pass or a fail.
Add my name
I question the wisdom of this enterprise. Not that the SkS “survey” has the least bit of credibility, but to draw still further attention to it (even in denunciation) strikes me as counterproductive. Why resurrect something that was not noticed by anyone outside the climate debate with a petition that will doubtless fall on deaf ears?
Please add my name thank you
Please add my name Tom Barr BSc but I note that, if I read this correctly on my phone, that, at the opposite ends of the survey scale, a “denier” has to “endorse with quantification” whereas an “alarmist” merely has to “state” (no quantification required). What a muppet survey, let alone the analysis. Might be worth making this point.
Please add my name. The publication of this paper is a case study in the decline and corruption of the peer review process.
you can add me too !
forgot to add :
BS – electrical engineering, Washington State University
MS – Computer Science, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
You can add me as well.
Email sent.
PhD (Biology), MD
===============================================================
“…it worked by reading tree rings.”
(Just thought I’d finish your sentence for you.)
=================================================================
Apologizes to those who study tree rings to actually learn something rather than fabricate something.
How about:
“…it worked by modeling tea leaves.”
(Just thought I’d finish your sentence for you.)
Margaret Hardman says:
“Science by petition? So that’s how it works. And I thought…”
No, Margaret. You Believed… There is a big difference there…
Please add my name.
I have added my name using the submit story email route
Me too! Baaah!
Please add my name
Martin Hovland
Professor emeritus
Please add my name. The paper ought never to have been published in the first place.
Please add my name
Please add my name
Dr K.A. Rodgers, MSc, PhD, FMinSoc, Geraldine, New Zealand
Thank you, Monckton.
Please add my name: Alec H Evans FRICS
Please add my name.
Please add my name – The authors should not be trusted to hold any ‘official’ position.
Please add my name. Thank you.
Please add my name.
I hold only a bachelor’s degree in mathematics, yet should Christopher wish to append my name, he is most certainly welcome.
As became clear when I posted my comment, if you don’t think there is a consensus, putting tens of names on a letter doesn’t make it any more or less true. This is rank casuistry as those here well know we’re they to give a moment’s thought. But one should be grateful to Monckton of Brenchley for pointing out the vanishingly small number of papers implicitly or explicitly rejecting AGW out of the 11,000+ abstracts assessed.
Christopher Monckton,
Email sent. Add my name.
It may be a good opportunity to raise public awareness.
Thanks for being a community organizer. : )
John
please add me to the list
Excellent initiative. Please add my name. Dr. Ir. Oebele Bruinsma, the Netherlands.
Add mine.
Please add me.
Add my name.
German administration asked to take out the warming from the coming IPCC report …
Please add me to the list
My name added via the Contact form.
Please add my name: Michael Limburg VP European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) Germany
Name, city & state sent via contact form.
[Subject=Monckton re Cook et al: Request for withdrawal]
(Note to Cook: Speak your mind but be ready to back up your claim.)
Please add me: Mag. Otto Weinzierl (Geology)
Please add my name to the list.
Please add my name to the list
Count me in. Surname Cook – got to try to clear the family name …
Please add my name to the list
And Silver too.
Me too !!!!
Mine with bells on.
Add Me
Me too.
James A. Haigh.
BSc (Geology).
Lord Monckton:
those same 97.1% would also say or imply that Man caused at least half the global warming since 1950 (their category 7)
Is that an error? Category 7 means less than half caused by humans…
But anyway, you may add my name (B.Sc. in chemistry).
Please add my name: Owen Hughes.
I’ve added my name through the contacts sheet, but I just wanted to say here in the comments that it’s great to see so many commenters’ qualifications and extensive experience in the hard sciences. It gives a complete lie to alarmists claims that us sceptics are all ‘anti-science’.
Andy Wilkins, BSc Mathematics
Secondary (High School) Mathematics Teacher (a member of a very small minority of CAGW sceptic and libertarian teachers in the UK education system)
Oh, and Margaret – do you believe that we’re not allowed to make our voices heard just because we don’t work for the CRU at UEA or the ‘Muslim Outreach’ division at NASA? Are you trying to tell me that you’d never sign one of those ridiculous “STOP CARBON POLLUTION NOW!” petitions that the likes of Weepy Bill are constantly waving around?
Please add my name: Michael Brown
Please add my name:
Dr. Stefan Weiss, Munich/Germany (PHD Geology & Mineralogy)
Please add me also to your list.
Regards, Mark Stoval
I sent an email using “contacts” under “about”, titled “Moncton Letter Support”.
Please add my full name.
Caleb Shaw
Please add my name.
Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A. Sc., M.Eng., P.Eng.
Count me among them
My name should be added
These numbers, they flung them
Too far: They’ve been padded!
And elsewhere, that survey
“Consensus Opinions”
Would even count me!
I’m not one of their minions!
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle
I too wish to have my name added to the List.
Consensus has no scientific weight, save the weight of perception.
Belief, on the other hand exists because of it.
John F. Manville, Ph.D., Research Scientist, retired.
Please add my name:
David G. Kamakaris
BS Geology, SUNY Buffalo 1976
MS Geology, SUNY College @ Fredonia, 1987
Please add me. email sent.
My name added via contact form
Please Add my name
Ken Cole
Please add my name:
Thomas R. Kowalewski
BS Electrical Engineering, SUNY Buffalo 1984
please add my name
Please add my name:
Charles E. Nolan
ETCS (SS) USN (Ret)
“I pray thee, then,
Write me as one that loves his fellow men.”
Abou Ben Adhem
BY LEIGH HUNT
Dear Mr. Watts:
SInce you are passing on comments to Lord Moncton – how about this: the entire Cook imbroglio assumes that opinions stated in published papers tell us something about the opinions of all of those drafting papers. This is obviously false, editors simply do not accept papers whose opinions they oppose – and preferentially accept those whose summaries can be used to sell opinions they wish to impose.
For this type of analysis to work the authors have to include both rejected papers and papers that were never written because doing so would have been career limting. I have no idea how to do that, but those who live in alternate universes (e.g. Hansen, Gore et al) might…
Please add my name.
Evgueni Kretchetov ACA MSc (Medicinal Chemistry) BSc (Chemical Technology)
Please add my name:
Charles D. Hendrix
M.S. Chem. Eng.; M.S. Statistics
Add mine please. Steve Smith
Mine as well
Michael Bromley B.Sc.H., Ph.D.
Please add my name MSc Lars Silén Finland
Please add my name
Please add my name:
Richard J. Kabat
BS Aerospace Engineering, St. Louis University
Please add my name.
David A. Stubbs, M.S. Physics
Please add my name to the letter!
Please add my name.
Add me
Please add my name: Robert Bentley, Toronto, Canada
Pl. include me IN
Please add my name.
Don
Had arguing from “scientific consensus” had any merit, we would still be using an earth centric astrophysical model, with epi-cycles. Evolution as a viable explanation of observations would have never been given credence. Relativity as an usurper against the Newtonian model, itself an usurper, would have never been allowed to take hold. We got to see this within a political-scientific paradox with Lysenko-ism in the FSU.
This is what is wrong with that paper. It makes the fallacious argument from authority, that some large fraction of scientists “believe” something to be true. Believe? Scientists?
Maybe I’m an old fashioned (recovering) science type of guy, but my teachers, my thesis adviser, burned into me that we have to test, and understand our tests, and not reject out of hand what they say. Because no matter how much we might wish to believe in some idea, if the evidence does not support that idea, nay, if it contradicts that idea, then science tells you that idea is busted as a theory. Once its falsified, no amount of “scientific belief” or “consensus” matters. Its, to use the Mythbusters phrasing, “busted”.
Its disingenuous, and unethical to claim a theory, that is not in strong agreement with measurement, is in fact either correct, or well supported by the evidence. True scientific consensus comes from challenges to a theory, that the theory either passes or fails at. And if it fails, it fails, and cannot and should not be held onto by “scientists”. Over time, a theory which has a possibility of being correct, will withstand all challenges. Its predictions will be shown to be accurate. If it fails, it fails. If it doesn’t fail, there is always the next challenge.
This is why this whole “science is settled” bit annoys me beyond belief. Anyone with any sort of scientific integrity on either side of these debates should be coaching their followers to absolutely avoid this language. Unfortunately, this paper is this “science is settled” bit, writ large, in an academic journal. No respectable researcher should have anything to do with such a set of claims.
Please add my name to the letter.
Joseph Landman, Ph.D.
Computational Physicist by training
(not representing anyone but me here)
Endorsed. The longer this goes on, the more academia, et al, will add to the “97.1 consensus” with the graduates of various environmental specialties. Most of them will then have to move on to careers in retail and food services while being dunned about their student loan balance-due.
Auto wishes his name be added, too, please.
Auto
Please add Ethan Brand, MSME, PE
Include my name please.
Luke Salvalaggio, P.Eng – BSc Computer Engineering
I requested to be added using Contact feature in toolbar
Please add my name to this letter.
Steven Whalley BSc MSc
The Editor should definitely withdraw the paper. How embarrassing. Please add my name – Larry F. Brown PhD Ecology
Me too, please: A C McGough, PhD (Physics)
Requested via email that my name be added.
Roger E. Sowell, Esq.
B.S. Chemical Engineering 1977
You may include mine, Alan Mackintosh, BSc Forestry & Conservation.
General note: There are a LOT of obviously well-educated individuals putting their names to this list. All by itself, THAT is impressive.
However, anyone of any background, even with no formal education, should feel equally as qualified to add their name. Many a scientist or inventor changed the world without formal education. Anyone with a thirst for truth and knowledge can add their names here as we are all equally peers in that regard.
I feel honored to be among such fine individuals.
Thank you for this opportunity Anthony and Christopher.
I’ll second the sentiment expressed by Rick K and Julian in Wales. I could give my degree, but what does it matter? I’d hate to see it used in an argument because it means nothing. There are people with higher degrees that are less able than I am, and there many without any degree whom I recognise as superior to myself.
Everybody who can read and write is able to express a valid opinion on the matter in hand.
I’m in
David L. Yaussy
Gladly, please add my name, but as a non scientist better not.
Perhaps you should have a heavyweight list – professors first, and Dr of Science and other with credentials.
good luck
As I said in my “contact”, note to Anthony…..
Does this make me officially a WUWT “Flying Monkey”?
/sarc
I also told him he should make tee shirts.. He would make millions.
Tom Riordan
@JBirks
“Why resurrect something that was not noticed by anyone outside the climate debate”
I hear and see it being referred to in the media quite often.
@Karl W. Braun
Nothing “only” about a Bachelors In Mathematics as far as I am concerned. When I run out of fingers, I’m lost.
Please add me Greg Keeley
Perhaps forward it to Mr Mark Scott, Managing Director, Australian Broadcasting Corporation.?
Strongly support.
Brian Hall
Please add Michael Sununu
It would seem the editors will just sent you a letter stating that Cook et al has a table of definitions that they use to derive the numbers throughout the manuscript and that end up in the abstract. I doubt they will take an into statement as an ad hoc definition over the author’s explicit “Table 2. Definitions of each level of endorsement of AGW.”
Logic
Science is settled my arse..
Add my name as well please.
and me!
Consensus of what? Consensus has nothing to do with science. Particularly in today’s world.
PLease add my name: Chris Boughton
Please add my name: Ralph E Snape
You can add my name. Ian Guthrie of Perth WA. Highest qualification is Masters Crim. I don’t particularly want my web name linked to my real name, I am a bit private. But for what it’s worth, go for it. Cheers.
Please add my name: Erik Christensen
Rather than going into minutiae, isn’t the simple, stand-out message of the 11,944 papers in the study that ‘66% OF SCIENTISTS EXPRESSED NO OPINION’ (7930/11944 = 0.664)?
This quite clearly is sufficient to refute the paper in its entirety, assuming that the table in this document is an accurate reflection of the papers under examination.
On the basis that ‘you need an opinion poll carried out to get the result you want’, would the following questionnaire be suitable?
‘Professor Jones:
1. Does your Professorial Rank require you to raise grant income in excess of £500,000 a year?’
2. ‘Would you lose your Professorial rank if you failed to bring in any grant income for 3 years?’
3. ‘Are the major funding streams for climate research endorsing the position of AGW?’
4. ‘Would your ability to attract funding and, hence retain your Professorial rank, be affected by carrying out skeptical research?’
5. ‘Would the lives of you, your family and your children be adversely affected if you lost your Professorial Rank?’
6. ‘Are you supportive of the position that human beings are the primary cause of global warming?’
Let us now sample a skeptic:
‘Professor Spencer:
1. Do you believe that scientific theory should be tested experimentally?
2. Do you believe that transparent evaluation of the uncertainties implicit in scientific results are key to their validity?
3. Do you believe that the primary purpose of a computer model is to identify appropriate measurement regimens to test an hypothesis?
4. Do you believe that if such measurements disagree with the predictions of the model then the model-constructed hypothesis is wrong?
5. Have the models used by the IPCC scientists accurately predicted the earth’s temperature since 1990?
6. Do you remain unconvinced that the overwhelming driver for global warming is the activities of man??’
You cover up the answers to the first five questions and only publish the last one.
One John Cook wrote an article in yesterday’s “Weekend Australian” which bandies about, several times, this figure of 97% (or a figure close to it. Read it at your local Library if you don’t have a copy yourself. Then think about writing to “The Australian” in support of, or against, his article.
Shameful! Pleas add my name:
A.S. Eriksson
M.Sc., Ph.D.
Egmond, the Netherlands
Please add my name also.
Please add my name to the list.
Please add my name:
Patrick Dolan
CWO2, USN(Ret)
Please add my name, too. Prof. Douglas B. Levene, dblevene@stl.pku.edu.cn
AS Ferdinand Englebeen points out above, I believe this open letter contains an error that should be corrected.
Where you state: “The central, and irremediable, error in the Cook paper is that the authors, by not adhering scrupulously throughout to the definition of “scientific consensus” that they had stated at the outset was the basis of their inquiry, were implying that if 97.1% of those abstracts that had expressed some sort of an opinion on global warming had said or implied that Man could cause some warming (their categories 5 and 6), those same 97.1% would also say or imply that Man caused at least half the global warming since 1950 (their category 7)” I believe you are not using the categories you listed above, and it should read: “The central, and irremediable, error in the Cook paper is that the authors, by not adhering scrupulously throughout to the definition of “scientific consensus” that they had stated at the outset was the basis of their inquiry, were implying that if 97.1% of those abstracts that had expressed some sort of an opinion on global warming had said or implied that Man could cause some warming (their categories 1, 2 and 3), those same 97.1% would also say or imply that Man caused at least half the global warming since 1950 (their category 1)
You may also add my name.
Further, are you kidding me? They are stonewalling and intend to let this stand? That’s insane — surely this is the sloppiest paper to ever make its way into the journal Environmental Research Letters! Or is this just how they do things over there?
I posted above about a paragraph I believe was in error.
Likewise, I suspect the same category error exists in the paragraph that reads: “There were 41 abstracts explicitly endorsing the IPCC’s version of consensus. But there were not only 9 in level 7 but also 54 in level 5 and 15 in level 6. Total sample size was thus only 119 out of 11,944 papers, or just 1% of an already smallish sample of the entire literature.”
I infer there must be two different listings of categories, but the one you cite in this letter is not the one you use in the paragraph I draw to your attention.
Please add my name to the list – Ian Hilliar an Aussi GP, and happy to be so.
As usual Monckton’s erudition is something to which we should all aspire
And add my name also
First, many thanks to all of you who have kindly lent your names to the letter to ERL’s editors. As soon as I have the list from Anthony of those who have contacted him, I shall be sending out the letter with all the names added. What an impressive list of qualifications the signatories have between them.
Those who have kindly pointed out an error in the category numbers in the earlier draft letter to ERL will see that it had been corrected by the time the final version was sent out.
I apologize for the confusion caused by the fact that I had not gotten the corrected version into Anthony’s hands before he ran this item.
Gerry McGuire BA endorses this letter.
Don’t add mine.
I’ll not kick the cabin boys on the ship of fools.
Not that they don’t deserve it but unworthy of me.
Anthony – please will you let us know if adding our name here counts. I have added mine up near the top. Do I need to also contact you outside of this post? I didn’t because I figured you wouldn’t want to be inundated by hundreds of people both here and there, but I will write to you again if that’s what I need to do. Please clarify.
Stephen Robinson.Please add me.
Please add my name.
Gerard Magnan
BSc Civil/Sanitary Engineering, 1971
Please add my name
Daryl Williamson
Minnesota