It looks like the Maslowski Countdown has ended early and there will be no “ice free Arctic” as predicted this year.
From NSIDC, which has a 5 day average in the plot. It looks like the minimum extent is ~5.0-5.1 million sq kilometers. NSIDC has yet to make an announcement on the turning point as of this writing. Note the minimum is within the standard deviation bounds (grey shading) that NSIDC provides.
Note also that it is still possible to see a drop again, as this has happened in years past, but given the colder temperatures this year, a reversal appears unlikely.
![N_stddev_timeseries[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/n_stddev_timeseries1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot concurs:
![AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/amsre_sea_ice_extent_l1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA data says:
09-10 5084063 09-11 5029688 09-12 5000313 09-13 5031094 09-14 5055625 09-15 5063438
The NANSEN plot concurs as well:
More at the WUWT Sea Ice page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
Related articles
- Tough Times For Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts… (wattsupwiththat.com)
- The early chill in the Arctic continues (wattsupwiththat.com)
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Ulric Lyons:
You posted falsehoods in this thread,
I quoted the falsehoods verbatim.
And I demonstrated that you had deliberately posted the falsehoods knowing they were untrue.
At September 18, 2013 at 10:46 am you post more falsehoods by claiming it was not you but me who had posted falsehoods saying “not for the first time”.
APOLOGISE.
Richard
richardscourtney says:
Liar, You posted falsehoods in this thread, they are described in my previous comment.
Ulric Lyons:
Your post at September 19, 2013 at 3:31 am says in total
Nope. You are flailing in desperation.
It is unreasonable to call me a “Liar” because I compared what you claim to have forecast to your own words (which I linked, cited and quoted) where you say you made the “forecast”.
My post at September 18, 2013 at 4:01 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/16/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-5-no-ice-free-arctic-this-year-it-appears-that-arctic-sea-ice-has-turned-the-corner/#comment-1420122
quoted verbatim – and linked to – specific statements you had made in this thread and provided links to your own words which show those statements are falsehoods.
Simply, you claimed to have made a forecast for sea ice last year and pretended to have provided evidence of that forecast with a link. But the link you provided does NOT indicate you made any such forecast, and nothing else indicates you dfid except your “memory”.
I repeat what I said to you at September 18, 2013 at 9:02 am.
You say you intend to sell your forecasts for the UK. Alright, do that if you want. But you can expect to be called on it if you advertise your product by making false claims on WUWT.
Richard
richardscourtney says:
“It is unreasonable to call me a “Liar” because I compared what you claim to have forecast to your own words (which I linked, cited and quoted) where you say you made the “forecast”.”
You claimed when you though that I made the forecast, you were wrong. I never said when I made the forecast, I only implied that I made it since last year.
“Simply, you claimed to have made a forecast for sea ice last year and pretended to have provided evidence of that forecast with a link.”
Liar, I never said when I actually made the forecast, and as before, the link was to demonstrate the temp diff between the zones, not as evidence for the forecast, I have told you exactly this already but you choose to ignore it.
Your behavior is beyond excuse.
Usually, I am fully against all CAGW alarmists but I’m not so sure we should be so certain that sea ice extent is either fully recovered or that the ice is not a lot thinner.
Over a longer time frame the ice appears to have retreated considerably (due, IMO, to recovery from the Little Ice Age) the 2013 “recovery” being a blip in this process.
Would someone like to prove this guy (a rabid warmist) wrong? AND tell the Telegraph!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100237031/you-genuinely-have-to-be-an-idiot-to-think-that-arctic-sea-ice-is-recovering/
Paul M says: September 16, 2013 at 2:45 pm
The WUWT forecast made in June was 4.8.
The UK Met Office, with their highly skillful computer models and supercomputers, came up with 3.4.
Yes Paul, but just today the Met made a last-minute adjustment (using estimated aerosols) that increased their forecast to 5.0. Perfect!
Need I say “sarc off”?
[Reply: It’s best. Some folks are very credulous… — mod.]
– – – – – – –
Oh good. One less thing to worry about.
John