It looks like the Maslowski Countdown has ended early and there will be no “ice free Arctic” as predicted this year.
From NSIDC, which has a 5 day average in the plot. It looks like the minimum extent is ~5.0-5.1 million sq kilometers. NSIDC has yet to make an announcement on the turning point as of this writing. Note the minimum is within the standard deviation bounds (grey shading) that NSIDC provides.
Note also that it is still possible to see a drop again, as this has happened in years past, but given the colder temperatures this year, a reversal appears unlikely.
![N_stddev_timeseries[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/n_stddev_timeseries1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot concurs:
![AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/amsre_sea_ice_extent_l1.png?quality=75)
The JAXA data says:
09-10 5084063 09-11 5029688 09-12 5000313 09-13 5031094 09-14 5055625 09-15 5063438
The NANSEN plot concurs as well:
More at the WUWT Sea Ice page: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
Related articles
- Tough Times For Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts… (wattsupwiththat.com)
- The early chill in the Arctic continues (wattsupwiththat.com)
RACookPE1978 says:
September 16, 2013 at 2:39 pm
… “open Arctic ocean albedo” …
__________________________________
I was just thinking, the albedo issue should be focusing on the ice coverage during the season with the most energy from the sun. This period would clearly be the few weeks surrounding the Solstice when the sun is high in the sky (21 or 22 June). With all the focus on the time of sea ice minimum in mid September, the sun is so low on the horizon (in the arctic) that even water is acting like a (almost) perfect mirror. Next week this time, the arctic will have started its 6 month long night. Realistically, past the middle of August, the albedo likely isn’t even an issue. In fact, at this time of year, a lack of sea ice probably lets the arctic ocean release huge amounts of stored heat back into the atmosphere. As with a lot of issues, it appears that the CAGW crowd have things backwards.
So 2010 was almost three years ago, and 2010 minimum was pretty much right on three years ago.
So how long does it take for these public servants living off the taxpayer’s largesse, to get their #2 pencil out and put in the data up to 2013. Well let’s say at least up to the end of August 2013.
Well I’m talking about the long term average. I care about the 1981-2010 average about as much as I care about the 1492-1776 average.
Are they afraid that the long term average will get lower if they include the 2010-Aug 2013 data in their average ?
They are just cherry picking.
Our next target is this particular professor. He says there will be an ice free Arctic in 2015 and 2016. He even said that an ice-free North Pole would be unprecedented. Wrong. He even thought Maslowski’s model had merits. Partners in utter and abject failure. Just how many more times should we listen to these idiots of the Arctic?
I find it best to use my lying eyes and arrive at my own conclusions, regarding the situation in the arctic. Not that my conclusions are correct, but at least I can admit my mistakes and stand corrected, unlike certain Climate Scientists who would seemingly rather fall prey to their own greed and vanity.
Besides the Sea Ice Page here at WUWT, which I visit amazingly often (especially in September,) as it is an invaluable store of good links, I like to use my eyes by viewing the ice through the “North Pole Camera.” Now there are other, better “O-Buoy” cameras as well, which include an option that lets you see a sort of time lapse film of every picture the camera has taken. Its amazing what you can learn about the thawing and the refreezing just by watching. (Also I once saw the shoulder of a polar bear.)
A good supply of links to various buoys, plus a synopsis of what buoys are reporting, is found at http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm . I learned a lot the past few years simply by looking at the line drawn by each buoy’s drift. This year the ice hasn’t moved down and out through Fram Strait, as it usually does.
My own diary of watching-ice-melt, (a most charming occupation on a hot summer’s day, but not so gripping as it starts to get colder,) can be found at http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/the-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-a-september-surprise/
And now I expect to see the following Quote:
Stick Nokes says:
September 16, 2013 at 3.29 pm
Phew, the sea ice is alright! It is recovering! At last some good news we can all cheer, and say that we have indeed turned a corner and the worries about CO2 have been overblown. Thanks everyone for a great effort, lets get back to normal life without the worries!.
Instead we are more likely to see this:
Stick Nokes says:
September 16, 2013 at 3.29 pm
Well I did tell you that the models predicted this type of outlier. Just wait until next year, the sea ice will be gone in both the arctic and the antarctic. I know because I have seen a peer reviewed paper which has a climate model which proves what I am saying! Reduce your carbon footprint and repent you sinners!
The saddest part about all of this is that as the tide is shifting away from the alarmism, the inhabitants of Earth can’t breathe a big sigh of relief, forget about this AGW crap and get on with their lives. The alarmists, rent-seeking scientists and big government redistributionist types won’t admit they were wrong and concede easily. This is SCIENCE (read, their livelihoods) after all!
We will have to soldier on for several more years until it becomes apparent to every elected official that they can’t continue to live on the public purse while spending billions in taxpayer money chasing rainbows and unicorn farts (Australia anyone?) As with the so-called climate scientists, politicians are very adept at determining on which side their bread is buttered in order to maintain their own economic condition. When enough of the voting public realize that they have been duped, most of these clowns will need to discover a change of heart or be thrown out of office.
Of course once the AGW gravy train ends, they will conveniently find (read, manufacture) the next crisis to latch onto….
This is when Mosher drops by, leaves the first cryptic note about paying attention, not over yet. Then after prodding he’ll mention warm water flowing into the Arctic Ocean under the ice, fragile thin ice that’ll virtually evaporate overnight, and/or will point to some storm system developing that we’ll find out later wasn’t full blown for another week and clears out another million square kilometers of extent.
Or he could just keep himself busy polishing up the BEST dataset.
@ur momisugly RACookPE1978 on September 16, 2013 at 2:39 pm …
Good and proper questions RA, but answering those just doesn’t fit their script of global domination with the “Greens” running the world, dictating what you can and can’t do, where you can and can’t do it, how much in taxes they can get out of you and your family (ie: agenda 21… United Nations). Their goal is NOT answering proper scientific questions, in fact they use psychological projection for just the opposite purpose.
I maybe wrong here but I do believe that Nick Stokes is a CLIMATE MODELLER. A failed one too. 🙂 I doubt we will see him here today as he is very busy feeding, his snout is in the CAGW trough. 🙂
Roy UK says:
September 16, 2013 at 3:51 pm
Very Funny! Unfortunately, as always, there is an ironic and black twist to it – in that, one would normally expect climate scientists to be happy that the Earth is much less likely to be ‘doomed’ as originally suggested. Indeed, one might expect them to be ‘glad to be wrong’? But still, the scam continues, how many have proclaimed their happiness at nature showing them to be wrong?
Nelson says:
September 16, 2013 at 3:53 pm
re the next scam/crisis – I foresee this to be ‘the next ice age’! (and no doubt, probably caused by CO2!!)
All time record sea ice in Antarctic.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/antarctica-sea-ice-extent-all-time-record-maximum-on-sept-14-2013/
Here is a free tip for young scientists who don’t care about science. Enter climate science, make shitty predictions and you will get money anyway. What is there to lose? Think about it. The only downside is that you will never be remembered for anything. You would have really failed.
Jimbo says:
September 16, 2013 at 2:53 pm
This past summer has also seen record cold in the Arctic 80th northern parallel since the DMI record began in 1958. Something you might not read in the IPCC summary for policy makers.
See below how the DMI record is calculated from the model result and how the models used have changed from time-to-time. Notice how DMI shows that recent winters have been warmer.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean Temperature
The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to 2010 T799 data are used and from 2010 to present the T1279 model data are used.
The climate has indeed changed. First they picked global warming, then they shifted to climate change. What a cat and mouse game of a joke.
In which case it was rather odd that they named the organization The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change back in 1988!
Let me make one thing clear, I am not a scientist at all. What I find amazing is that I can find ‘Arctic climate scientists’ to be wrong. Does this indicate that there is something seriously wrong here? These guys are supposed to correct me and not the other way round. Unless they are actually more concerned about feeding in the global warming money trough. If these are our scientists today then we are really doomed. Eisenhower warned us about this and it’s happening before our very eyes.
Goodnight all.
NorthwestPassage2013 blog: Sept 15 – the Fat Lady is Singing.
Prepare to winter over.
http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/2013/09/it-aint-over-till-fat-lady-sings-make.html
Of course, that’s just a measure of how surprised people were. More boat taking chances on less ice — and losing the bet.
Sept 16: “Mother Nature welcomes NW Passage yachts in Nome to the Bering Sea with a STORM – STAY IN PORT WAIT FOR A WEATHER WINDOW?”
So you are not worried about summers? I thought summers was the worry. Or are you worried about an ice-free Arctic in the winters? Get your act together boy, I have to sleep. I will come back tomorrow. Also deal with their FAILED predictions to date. Get ready for an ice-free Arctic in 2015 and 2016. Will I see you here? If it fails you will run – I project. Now take a break and have a Kit Kat. 🙂
bit chilly says:
September 16, 2013 at 2:38 pm
the fact the melt is within the standard deviation will be lost on the type of people that frequent the arctic sea ice forum run by neven
Well, within 2 standard deviations so a 7% chance.
Oops!
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/09/13/crew-filming-reality-tv-show-forced-to-cancel-trek-through-northwest-passage-on-jet-skis-after-costly-rescue/
I am aware of the term ‘climate change’ going back BEFORE 1988! Are you aware of the number of times the term ‘global warming’ was used between 1998 to 2005 compared to 2005 to 2013? The shift is clear. That’s my point. I repeat climate change and may I add ‘global cooling’ and ‘ice age’ were used before 1998. See Rasool and Schnieder.
george e. smith says:
September 16, 2013 at 3:29 pm
“So 2010 was almost three years ago, . . . ”
International agreement since the 1930s have used the 30 year average for weather data with the last year of that ending in zero, thus 2010 qualifies. They can and will do other things sometimes but on this they are following standard procedure.
As reported by sunshinehours, there is a new all-time record Antarctic Sea Ice Extent recorded on September 14, 2013 according to the NSIDC.
http://s17.postimg.org/wb91x69b3/Antarctic_SIE_NSIDC_Sept15_2013.png
The NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice Extent has probably reached a minimum as well. The September monthly average is tracking to 5.23M km^2 (up 44% from last year’s, virtually the same number I predicted in early August and higher than all but one Arcus Sea Ice Outlook prediction game).
http://s24.postimg.org/ul220iiat/NSIDC_Sept_Min_Proj_Sept15_2013.png
JAXA looks to have reached the minimum as well (51% higher than last year).
http://s21.postimg.org/uu3b1hzg7/Jaxa_Min_Proj_Sept15_2013.png
Whilst the apparent recovery this year is impressive – approximately 60 percent more sea ice than in 2012 – I would, again, alert readers to the fact that the ice pack thickness to the north of Nunavut has dropped a metre in the past 24-hours (compare the Hycom/NRLSSC Arctic Sea Ice Thickness graphics for the 15th and 16th September)! This coincides with the thickest section of the Arctic ice pack. There is a need to determine what generated such a decrease.
As Joe Bastardi (WeatherBell Analytics) has pointed out in his most recent report, the recovery is off an exceptionally low base. Readers need to remember that a massive Arctic storm destroyed a significant section of the ice pack in early August last year – rendering the minimum area and extent the lowest since 2005.
Just did a fresh pull of the CT ice area for my article at Climate Etc. It does look like we may have hit min a bit early this year.
This may be part of a much more significant decadal change:
judithcurry.com/2013/09/16/inter-decadal-variation-in-northern-hemisphere-sea-ice
Gregory Beasley (Prospect, NSW) says:
September 16, 2013 at 5:00 pm
… the ice pack thickness to the north of Nunavut has dropped a metre in the past 24-hours (compare the Hycom/NRLSSC Arctic Sea Ice Thickness graphics for the 15th and 16th September)
—————————
Pretty unlikely since temperatures in this region are about -10C.
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif
Eureka Nunavut Canada temps over the past 90 days. Exceptionally below normal temperatures. And Eureka has a world-class climate research station staffed by several researchers so this is accurate.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn71917_90.gif
Why do the graphs stop at 2 Million Kilometers? Shouldn’t they go all the way to 0? The higher the graph stops, the closer it looks like we’re coming to doom. It’s bad enough we only have 30 years of data, with no real perspective on where the graph has been in the past (heh, using the logic of CAGWers, if we had equivalent graphs from before significant human’s influence on the ice, we’d see clearly that we were in an ice age just 100 years ago…)