Tough Times For Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts…

Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts

In previous years there was reason to cheer, .e.g. “Transport is steaming full speed ahead.” “Some serious ice transport going on there. If this keeps up…” Neven, “Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia”, “Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared – it’s the Silly Season!” Skeptical Science 1 and 2

However, this year the mood is more sober and downbeat, e.g. in Neven’s recent article “ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh” he writes that;

I didn’t think it was possible, but area-wise 2013 is now even above 2009. Apparently this can happen when the weather isn’t conducive to ice decrease (melt, compaction and transport) for almost the entire melting season, even if you start out with a record amount of first-year ice. Fascinating stuff. After the lowest average daily decrease since 2006 for the month of August, 2013 is almost 1.3 million km2 behind last year!

Later in comments this exchange occurred:

Pete Williamson: Neven, I think at some point you’re going to have to stop being surprised at the lack of melt (or the persistence of extent) this year 😛

Neven: I know, I know. I just can’t get over it! 😀

Pete Williamson: Not only has a lot of FYI survived but so has much of the SYI (2nd) which is going to start showing up in the MYI category next year. It possible that at least a bit of a ‘recovery’ in the MYI is on the cards.

Neven: Definitely. This is now the number 1 point of interest for me. A couple of melting seasons like this one in a row, and you could really start speaking of a recovery. But just one 2007/2011/2012 year could negate all of it as well.

So what has these Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts sober and downbeat? Well certainly the stubbornly average Global Sea Ice Area graph at the head of this article can’t help, but let’s take a closer look:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – click to view at source

continues to trend below average, however it has remained within the 30 year (1981 – 2010) “normal” range for the entirety of 2013. Conversely, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source

continues to trend above average and has remained outside of the “normal” range for much of the last month. Furthermore, Southern Sea Ice Area has now remained above average for most of the last two years:

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

and is within striking distance of a record high:

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

All of these facts might dampen even the most dedicated Sea Ice Melt Enthusiast’s spirits, but then again, there’s always next year, i.e.:

“I have great excuses, of course, like the fact that I’m in the process of building a house (slowly reaching its climax in the next 2-3 weeks), and the melting season being less of a spectacle with slow melting and an extremely cloudy Arctic. But still, there’s always plenty of stuff to talk about when it comes to that fascinating place that is the Arctic. Next year will probably be better.” Neven

To see more information on sea ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Page and WUWT Northern Regional Sea Ice Page.

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philincalifornia
September 7, 2013 9:13 pm

The big question in climatology may soon be – is global sea ice area/volume a proxy for the fabrication of the global temperature record. I think probably not, but it should do for wholesale firing of the current crop of climate liars and charlatans.

Bill Jamison
September 7, 2013 9:41 pm

“Next year will probably be better” meaning of course that he expects more ice to melt. People like him are so determined to be right that they cheer for bad things to happen. This year and the lack of a new record has them sad and disappointed. The pause in warming probably has them feeling the same way.

RoHa!
September 7, 2013 10:15 pm

@dbstealy
“Their reason is to separate you from more of your tax money, nothing else.”
I don’t believe you. I’m sure they don’t care whether it’s tax money or not, just as long as it’s money and they can get their hands on it.

phlogiston
September 7, 2013 10:19 pm

I like Neven’s rigorous honesty combined with knowledge and insight into the Arctic system. He is also open about the side he is rooting for and his disappointment about the low melt this year. More scientists like him would be good for constructive progress in climate science.

phlogiston
September 7, 2013 10:23 pm

I type “climate” on my android phone and the next word auto-prompted is “change”. How scary is that! Google – you’re being evil.

Mark Albright
September 7, 2013 10:30 pm

The interior of Alaska experienced an unusually warm summer while north of Alaska over the Beaufort Sea and Arctic Canada it was unusually cold. Eureka NU dropped below freezing on August 13 and has yet to rise above freezing as of Sept 7 (today). August 2013 was the coldest August in the historical record at Eureka (80N) with records back to 1947 and was also the first August to record a mean temperature below freezing.
list of 10 Augusts with mean temperature less than 2.0 C at Eureka NU:
Aug 1975 1.9 C
Aug 1976 1.6
Aug 1992 1.4
Aug 1953 1.1
Aug 1996 1.0
Aug 1985 0.8
Aug 1997 0.7
Aug 1979 0.5
Aug 2000 0.4
Aug 2013 -1.2

Manfred
September 7, 2013 10:46 pm

Justthefacts wrote
As I wrote, measurable, but not major. Ice breakers don’t always “make a path through ice”. Often they shave pieces off the outside of the pack ice, which is then free to float away to open and potentially warmer waters. If you look at Healy’s 2006 cruise track in the Bering Sea;
http://icefloe.net/images/HLY-06annot.pdf
you will see that the Healy was not making a “path through”, but rather separating the pack ice in to free floating sections so wind and currents can carry them away, in order to open up the Bering Strait.
———————————————
Now that is impressive evidence of something Mosher uses to dismiss as “unicorns.”
Such deliberate separation of the pack ice may also be accomplished on much larger scale along the Russian shore line, as this route is used for commercial marine traffic.

NZ Willy
September 7, 2013 10:49 pm

Agree that PIOMAS is model-driven and doesn’t equate to observation. Neven & etc take shelter in things that we can’t see or measure, such as deep-sea heat and PIOMAS, and they pretend that it constitutes observation, but it doesn’t.
And to “justthefactswuwt”, what about my statement “icebreakers … are irrelevant to the Arctic ice extent” did you not understand? The efficacy of icebreakers to break the ice in service of commerce is irrelevant to my statement about Arctic ice extent. Your reply was “not even wrong”.

Dudley Horscroft
September 7, 2013 11:07 pm

justthefactswuwt wrote (1846 on 7 September), inter alia:
“Canada’s most powerful icebreaker, the Louis S. St. Laurent of 13 500 tons displacement (dwt), is smaller than Russia’s four 13 300 dwt nuclear-powered icebreakers of the Rossiya class in service.”
A bit of pedantry here, “displacement” tonnage is not the same as “deadweight” tonnage, not by a long chalk. Roughly speaking, displacement is the mass of the ship when fully loaded, including her own mass and her cargo, fuel and stores. Displacement because it is the mass of water displaced when floating. Deadweight tonnage – abbreviated ‘dwt’ – is the mass of the cargo only. Necessarily far less than the displacement tonnage.

Henry Clark
September 7, 2013 11:39 pm

Total arctic ice volume is less independently verifiable than ice area. About anything can be said about the former by activists with little risk of such being properly cross-checked. Reports of the former happen to be changing far more in a CAGW-movement convenient manner. Strange coincidence…
Similar happens with ocean heat content (temperature) trends compared to surface temperature trends. (The former are carefully misleadingly reported in joules rather than degrees but, for hundreds to thousands of meters depth, correspond to hundredths of a degree or less change over decades — far less than the 0.3 degree disagreement in temperature records illustrated in http://s24.postimg.org/rbbws9o85/overview.gif ),

J Martin
September 8, 2013 12:14 am

Philip Bradley said: “Embedded black carbon is the cause of the excess volume decline, as I explained above.”
How come ? If it’s embedded and therefore covered by ice then it cannot have any effect. Perhaps black carbon is overrated as a reason for ice melt.

Henry Galt
September 8, 2013 12:47 am

The power of an icebreaker’s propellers, combined with their pitch which is exacerbated when/if the bow rides up onto thicker ice, breaks the halocline as well as the ice.

Ian_UK
September 8, 2013 12:49 am

“Apparently this can happen when the weather isn’t conducive to ice decrease …” really profound, or stupidly obvious?

Stephen Richards
September 8, 2013 1:32 am

Apparently this can happen when the weather isn’t conducive to ice decrease.
Iknow, Iknow. Neven is a raving loony but there was no need for him to confirm it to all and sundry by this statement. My god what an idiot.

Ed Zuiderwijk
September 8, 2013 1:47 am

“the weather is not conducive for ..”. It’s “weather”, folks! You should know that by now. Arctic melting is the real thing, everybody knows that. It’ll be back with a vengeance (they think).

mwhite
September 8, 2013 2:03 am

From the mail on line
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html
“Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year with top scientists warning of global COOLING”

John Law
September 8, 2013 2:42 am

JimS says:
September 7, 2013 at 3:41 pm
The Arctic sea ice is supposed to be gone this year. My oh my, what has happened? The Arctic has not melted?
Easily explained in UK environment: Of course, it is the wrong kind of warming!

September 8, 2013 2:54 am

Eve says:
September 7, 2013 at 4:27 pm
“Loved that US sailer on a boat in the Arctic saying the Canadian government should learn good PR and provide gratis Icebeaking service. I wonder how much ice breakers have contributed to the “soon to be ice free Arctic”? There are Russian and Canadian icebreakers out there now breaking up the ice.”
I think so too. Precipitating the spring thaw/breakup goes on on the Great Lakes and ice bound harbours with the intention of getting the shipping moving.
Maybe you’ve seen this:
Spring Means Great Lakes Ice Breaking

I don’t see why the mechanics of this aren’t identical to ice breaking (in the spring) in any ice bound water. The Arctic has seen a huge increase in shipping activity and tonnage, including sub surface activity.

September 8, 2013 3:03 am

Mooloo says:
September 7, 2013 at 8:37 pm
“Why are the Russians building a huge new icebreaker if they know that the ice is only going to get thinner and thinner? Surely their old ones, which have coped so far, will be easily able to cope?”
OK you are being rhetorical. More shipping activity to support, replacing old stock etc. It can only increase. Not sure its an expectation of increasing ice but increasing activity.

Man Bearpig
September 8, 2013 3:17 am

This does not make sense. CO2 levels have been rising and rising, but the sea ice is increasing ?? Just think also of all the methane that got released from Arctic Sea Ice BS Central when this started happening. /sarc

September 8, 2013 4:03 am

From 1945 onward the technology to open up the arctic waters has become more powerful (nuclear) and prevalent (numbers and tonnage). Prior to 1945 Arctic shipping activity and weight was much, much less becoming inconsequential in a few short decades back from this time. And back from 1945 means all of earths history.
Of the many possible influences on ice extent/mass it is interesting that the following graphic shows a change in ice stability from 1945:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2010.png
I wouldn’t bet on the ice recovering or melting as it is a chaotic system with massive external forces acting on it, including continental drift (Atlantic continues to open up). Ice Breakers, soot, submarines are now additional forces and man made. The trouble with the term ‘man made’ is that any conversation on this topic has been well and truly sullied by partisan thinking that either considers man kind to be nothing but bad or the opposite where none or our actions have any consequence. Neither is helpful and often described in such a way as to be non-falsifiable. We all know this one: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his income depends on his not understanding it.” (Upton Sinclair). Well you can transpose the word ‘income’ for beliefs and mean the same thing.

September 8, 2013 4:27 am

Out of interest those who do ice fishing on the lakes up near Yellowknife are advised to beware of ice that has been thinned by the actions of shoaling fish. Fish swimming in circles just below the ice disturb the stable layers of water bringing warmer water closer to the surface. OK, this may be localized and have no large scale effect on winter ice extent. However, there is an effect and if one is expected to accept the notion that a 3% of 1% change in the thermal properties of the atmosphere is catastrophic then we must consider supposedly insignificant influences on the climate such as the heated wakes from nuclear powered subs and ships and just the breaking apart of large stable ice sheets.

NevenA
September 8, 2013 4:54 am

I don’t know if this is any use (don’t even know if I’m still banned or not), but in my own ‘defense’: when I said that “Next year will probably be better”, I meant that I would try to write more about what goes in on in the Arctic next year, because I was and still am extra busy this year. This would’ve been completely clear if justthefacts hadn’t left out the first two sentences of that paragraph.
As for where I’m coming from, you can get an idea by reading the Climate Disclaimer over on my blog, and here’s a piece I wrote back in 2010 about the alarmist’s dilemma: To Melt or not to Melt.
The dilemma in short: It’s clear that as an alarmist I’m not happy about the potential risks that AGW poses, so if Arctic sea ice loss can be enough of a sounding alarm for the world to wake up to the risks, then I’m all for it. Let it all melt out. But at the same time, no, I don’t want it to melt, because of all the potential consequences (see here).
If we leave the risks and AGW etc. aside, then of course it’s really cool to witness an event like an ice-free Arctic in one’s lifetime. It’s an amazing spectacle, with all those satellites we have to record the spectacle. Humans are after all suckers for records. Cryospheric science is pretty cool as well.
But in the end what I’d really want, is for the sea ice to stay AND see some intelligent changes to our culture and economic system so that we minimize the risk of totalitarianism becoming the only route when the shit hits the fan after all. As a libertarian and believer in the free market, that for me would be a total disaster.
[Reply: You were never ‘banned’. Just abide by the site Policy and you can comment to your heart’s content. ~ mod]