NOTE: like with the essay Saturday about isotasy/glacial rebound being a myth, I don’t think the chemtrails idea has any merit whatsoever. Dr. Tim Ball points out more bad science – chemtrails, which are really just contrails, and which has a cult-like following much like some of the worst theories of global warming zealots – Anthony
“It occurred to me….” To avoid political correctness and say what they really think people say, let me play Devil’s Advocate.
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
One minute people say government does too much, the next they demand action to resolve problems. Environmentalists demand government stop global warming, but oppose remedial actions like spreading iron filings on the oceans to increase uptake of CO2 or spraying chemicals into the atmosphere to create clouds to block sunlight and reduce global temperatures. Both actions are wrong because they constitute geo-engineering – governments playing God. The real problem is neither governments nor opponents know what is happening, but think they do, so demand action. Doing nothing is better if you don’t understand, contrary to the false claim of the precautionary principle. Environmental issues are a war and as Aeschylus said “In war truth is the first casualty”.
Figure 1 shows the different atmospheric layers each defined by temperature changes that reflect different chemistry.
The critical boundary is the Tropopause between the Troposphere, where 99% of the weather occurs, and the Stratosphere. It’s a very distinct boundary marking different density of gases and a change in temperature from a decrease with altitude to an increase. There are few gases thinly spread in the Stratosphere.
Figure 1 shows the Tropopause at 17 km. Actually, this varies considerably from Equator to Poles, mostly because of temperature. Seasonal temperatures also create differences. Variation at the Equator is 17 km (winter) to 19 km (summer). At the Poles it is 7km (winter) to 10 km (summer). Seasonal range is greater at the Poles because of greater seasonal temperature range.
Naturally, it is far more complicated. Understanding of some Troposphere dynamics are very recent. The Tropopause is not continuous, being broken by wind circulation patterns as Figure 2 shows.
PFJ =Polar Front Jet; STJ = SubTropical Jet
Twenty years ago my graduate class in Applied Climatology involved a briefing as a commercial pilot flying from Winnipeg to Vancouver. I realized most flights were partly in the lower Stratosphere. Since then these flights have increased because of better aircraft pressurization and more efficient engines in colder temperatures at higher altitudes.
I learned of changing flight patterns when flying search and rescue in northern and Arctic Canada. Flights increased significantly because of the end of the Cold War. with more flights over greater distances and different routes. The amount of traffic has increased significantly, especially the number of flights to Asia, most of which fly out of North America using “great circle” routes that brings them over western North America and Alaska or over the Pole.
Great circle routes take Asian bound aircraft across the general westerly flow of the upper level winds. This means condensation trails and high level clouds, especially Cirrus and contrails in the lower stratosphere are being dispersed in the same direction. Temperatures at these altitudes mean most of the gases condense directly to ice crystals. This makes them very visible, but also slow to dissipate.
A Contrail is exhaust from an aircraft engine cooling very rapidly below the dew point temperature and condensing into a visible trail of microscopic droplets. Through binoculars you can see the gap between the jet engine and the beginning of the trail. Earlier I mentioned that the gas constituency of the lower Stratosphere, where these planes fly, is different being much thinner and colder than in the upper Troposphere. Aircraft exhaust is a much higher percentage of total gas in the Stratosphere. This creates very different contrails, rates of dissipation and other factors. I mentioned that there are clouds in the lower Stratosphere called Noctilucent clouds. Here are some pictures of these clouds from Wikipedia:
Compare those images with these of Cirrus clouds also retrieved from Wikipedia.
Many confuse noctilucent clouds with chemtrails or contrails. Many confuse lower stratosphere contrails with chemtrails. It’s probably because most they want to see chemtrails. I’ve received many photos as evidence of chemtrails that are contrails, high cirrus or noctilucent events.
Noctilucent cloud occurrences are reportedly increasing. Is it possible the increase is because noctilucent clouds “ …are most commonly observed in the summer months at latitudes between 50° and 70° north and south of the equator.” These are the latitudes at which most flight increases have occurred. It is likely the increase in reported chemtrails are actually contrails from lower stratosphere flights.
There may be issues with flights in the stratosphere but nobody is really looking, possibly because the obvious solution is politically unattractive. Fuel consumption increases at lower altitudes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) doesn’t include the lower Stratosphere in their models. From the 2007 Science report:
“Due to the computational cost associated with the requirement of a well-resolved stratosphere, the models employed for the current assessment do not generally include the QBO.”
The QBO is linked with El Nino/La Nina. They, as well as ozone and clouds in the Stratosphere, are significant factors in Tropospheric weather. Some claim Stratospheric changes explain global temperatures better than IPCC and other models. Lu et al wrote:
All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE (cosmic-ray driven electron-induced-reaction) mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.
We need answers from science, free from politics. People need to sort out what actions and issues governments should be taking, but we can only do that if we understand the issues. Since we don’t, it is better to do nothing.
We must avoid the irresponsibility of the precautionary principle.
Related articles
- Chemtrails versus Contrails: Do Conspiracy Theories Make Sense? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
- Weather control conspiracy theories: scientifically unjustifiable (washingtonpost.com)
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Is it possible the increase is because noctilucent clouds “ …are most commonly observed in the summer months at latitudes between 50° and 70° north and south of the equator.” These are the latitudes at which most flight increases have occurred.
What?
The only SH landmass at those latitudes is a sparsely populated part of South America, where there might be a few local air services. Otherwise, the only regular flights at those latitudes are to and from Antarctica.
“Wasn’t there a report that the days after 9-11, while the planes were all grounded, that global temperatures dropped slightly?”
I understand it continued to drop for the next few months.
“I explained how these clouds formed and evolved, and all that, but my explanation was met with vigorous objections. “No, no, no! It is the government making its experiments. They are all the agents of the Antichrist and they are paving the way for the forces of darkness to come and destroy our world”.”
Odds were 50/50 you’d get that or an anti-corporate rant.
“If someone had data showing the weather conditions at the altitudes where jet traffic was and compared it to whether there were any contrails that day that would solve the issue once and for all for me.”
If only…
Michaelwiseguy: Have a look at the following for a few hours.
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KRSW
It’s likely not the traffic out of or into RSW causing the contrails. The aircraft generally take about 50 miles after take-off to get to altitude and start their descents about 120 miles from destination.
I too have been in aviation all my life like some of the other posters. I agree that chemtrails exist. I don’t believe it, but it keeps the nutters happy and I can merrily go about my business. I was involved in agricultural spraying for several years and aviation regulation for several more. Never saw any evidence for chemtrails, but then, I wasn’t looking and I’m not about to start now. Ridiculous!
To clarify: never saw any evidence of of high altitude chemtrails. Saw plenty of low level chemtrails from the dedicated spray gear on dedicated agricultural aircraft.
“…bet you snip this too.”
(Reply: Right you are. We have a clear, explicit, and straightforward Policy page. Apparently you believe you should be exempt from the rules everyone else follows, Mr Jackson. Sockpuppetry is also against the rules, “neillusion”, or whatever screen name you’re using today. Let us be clear: deliberately labeling those who may not agree with your point of view as “deniers” violates this site’s Policy. “Deniers” explicitly refers to neo-Nazis; to Holocaust deniers. This is the internet’s “Best Science” site, not a political propaganda blog. Not using “deniers”, “denialists”, etc., is a simple rule to remember, isn’t it? It will even help you to think for yourself, instead of mindless labeling of those with different views. There are plenty of blogs that allow, and even encourage, those particular pejoratives. This site is not one of them. We are better than that. So either follow Anthony’s rules, or take the consequences. Your choice. — Mod)
Mariss says:
September 2, 2013 at 6:31 pm
Wingtip Contrail:
Sorry, I watched the video and it is an ideal textbook illustration of exhaust contrails. Didn’t you notice they were directly in line with the axes of the engines? And that they began about halfway from the engines to the tail surfaces?
Evidence, folks. Contrails are condensed water from the combustion of hydrocarbons, when the exhaust temperature is cold enough (entrainment mixing with ambient high altitude air). The temperature isn’t cold enough to condense the carbon dioxide. This has been known since before the jet age.
Of course, the fact that I am an aeronautical engineer with a specialization in propulsion chemistry might account for my opinion.
Rob Crawford @ur momisugly September 3, 2013 at 2:20 pm;
” “Yes, ‘they got to Lucas’, evidently. He never returned to his evil-government theme … though he thought about it … but thought better, again, following 9/11.”
Bunk. Look at some of the laughable names in the idiotic prequels. He just decided that Republicans were evil. Probably easier to get by in Hollywood that way.”
“[T]he idiotic prequels” don’t bear much comparison with THX 1138.
His hesitation is reminiscent of Colin Powell.
In Chanhassen MN yesterday at 30,000 ft the temp was -33.8C and the dew point was -47.1C which produced no contrails, today in Chanhassen MN AT 30,000 ft. the temp was -30.2C and the dew point was -37.8 C which produced all kinds of contrails.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2013&MONTH=09&FROM=0212&TO=0312&STNM=72649
Yesterday there was a -13.3º difference between temp and dew point today was a only a -7º difference. hmmmm…
Richard Courtney and Jim
The primary cause of reported illnesses due to aerial spraying, or whatever, is anxiety.
A large proportion of the population has increased anxiety to situations they don’t understand and have no control over. Increased anxiety can lead to physical symptoms, and difficulty breathing is a common symptom, although there are others. When symptoms occur this reinforces the belief that aerial spraying, or whatever, does cause health problems and has caused their symptoms, frequently increasing the severity of the symptoms.
@Rob crawford
I have. I see horribly misguided people more intent on excusing their failures and blaming people they hate than in finding the facts. I see fanatics with their eyes alight over their Absolute Knowledge Of The Truth.
What I don’t see is much science.
Really?, really?, really? and really?
100’s of 1000’s, possibly even milliions of people are onto Chemtrails worldwide – and you see them all as you describe above? mmm
How did you miss the science? and where is your science proving them false?
You have so much less (nothing, nada, zilch) than they have to support your opinion, so…
Philip Bradley:
Thankyou for your post at September 3, 2013 at 3:34 pm.
Interesting. Do you have a reference for that, please? This request is not because I doubt your information, but I truly am interested in following this up. Anxiety can have many causes and it seems reasonable to suppose that the symptoms would – at least to some degree – be independent of the cause.
Richard
This is what -30.2C and the dew point was -37.8 C at 30,000 ft. in MN produces.
http://M4GW.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Contrails.jpg
Bravo Elmer!
You’re on the right track. Just keep in mind that airline flight levels occupy the lower reaches of the stratosphere, and there is a reason stratosphere is called so. It is not unusual to observe well-defined strata thin enough to fit between two adjacent flight levels, so it is possible that you will see one airplane leaving a thik trail, while another one flying next to it on a parallel course leaves none. Strata can be curved, wavy, and they can also be patchy — in other words, not necessarily parallel to the flight path.
http://contrailscience.com/skitch/onoff-20121010-072016.jpg
http://gallery.hd.org/_exhibits/natural-science/_more2007/_more04/contrails-condensation-trails-vapour-trails-aircraft-in-sky-above-suburbia-Kingston-London-England-2-DHD.jpg
Richard, here is an NHS page describing General Anxiety Disorder.
http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Anxiety/Pages/Symptoms.aspx
Wikipedia quotes various sources giving a prevalence of between 3% and 5% of the population in Western countries. Although substantially higher IMO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalized_anxiety_disorder#Prevalence
People believed in demons once visiting humans, then it became UFO’s and abductions, now they have turned it on their government for deliberating contaminating the atmosphere and killing off the elderly and young. These chemtrails are in this category. They must be paranoid beyond belief. Or mentally ill.
PS. If they wanted to really harm us, they would contaminate the water supplies.
Philip Bradley says:
September 3, 2013 at 4:22 pm Richard, here is an NHS page describing General Anxiety Disorder. http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Anxiety/Pages/Symptoms.aspx
Are you sure you are not looking for something a little more advanced than anxiety?
“A phobia is more than a simple fear. It develops when a person begins to organise their life around avoiding the thing they are afraid of, whether it’s an animal, object, place or situation.
A phobia is a type of anxiety disorder.”
Although, there are other phobias displayed by the ch—trail/haarpy manics that deserve attention. This crowd also have exaggerated phobias of agriculture, of industry, of fossil fueled powered cars, etc., and a definite affection for economic and environmental solutions of the Clinton Foundation. Another interesting symptom is the need to compulsively spread the phobias to others. This could be more advanced than general anxiety.
I wonder if CAGW and Chemtrails attracts individuals with the same disordered thinking process. Both seem to be remarkably similar in being impervious to doubt and have an unwillingness to examine any evidence contrary to what they believe.
If not posted already, here is an excellent debunk site for give your ChemTrail believer:
http://contrailscience.com/
But hey, if you can believe an extra whiff of CO2 can make freaky weather, you would have to believe a few puffs of chemtrails could do a better job. I put the blame on the AGW mouthpieces feeding naive people with stupid ideas about what causes weirdo weather.
Just to throw a hand grenade in the fishpond, there have been attempts to suppress contrails as, during the daytime the contrails point to the aircraft making them. Bad if you are flying any kind of stealth aircraft or in a fighter on combat air patrol at high altitude where you would maybe want to be at a particular altitude but find you are conning there. Search for “contrail suppression”. Some of the methods involve injecting certain chemicals into the exhaust, others, novel engine designs.
Are you sure you are not looking for something a little more advanced than anxiety?
Phobias are anxiety disorders.
Is CAGWism an anxiety disorder?
I suspect it is with many people. And many others exploit people’s general anxiety to focus it on CAGW, Gore for example.
I would think that ordinary high performance jet engines, would burn fuel that is just hydrocarbons, containing essentially nothing but C and H, maybe O, but maybe not.
So with efficient combustion, the exhaust should be just CO2 and H2O.
I don’t see how the H2O can do anything, but ultimately cool to the dew point and condense, at high enough altitude. There is a question of how quickly the exhaust disperses laterally, which would affect the relative humidity.
I have watched high flying mostly commercial jets laying out contrails, which sometimes then evaporated, leaving trails of finite length. But then I have watched other contrails persist, and slowly spread, and then grow into significant cloud streams. I have always assumed that the local Temperature must be below the dew point, and that the solar blockage by the trail is enough to cause cooling under the trail, and thus additional condensation of water vapor that was there before the jet passed through.
Sometimes, I have seen these “stimulated” cloud trails criss crossing the bay area in all directions; this being a local traffic node. I can’t be sure I have ever seen wing tip contrails, but I suspect they exist. I have seen automobile contrails, mostly going on hiway 5 over the grapevine, in certain rain conditions. The humidity gets so high, that the Bernoulli pressure drop in the air going around the car, is sufficient to dump out water droplets. Took me a while of close observation to convince myself, that it was not water being kicked up off the road; but it was emanating from ahead of the front wheels.
Well we’ve all seen automobile chemtrails of course; never a cop around to pull them over though.
I agree Phillip, I knew someone, who told me he feared for his life every day, and voted Green. There is so much bullshhh being threatened, i.e. The present Australian government and its acting PM know they are in for a hiding at the polls this coming Saturday, and have now stated if the coalition go ahead with repealing the carbon tax, they will call a double dissolution and call another election within a year. Obviously, Tony Abbott is wary of this, and the new senate will not come into power until July next year. That’s where the Greens hold the balance of power. To me that is going to frighten people who are sick of this campaign, but let’s hope that they will make sure they vote the Nationals and Liberals joint ticket into the Federal senate seats that will become vacant.