NOTE: like with the essay Saturday about isotasy/glacial rebound being a myth, I don’t think the chemtrails idea has any merit whatsoever. Dr. Tim Ball points out more bad science – chemtrails, which are really just contrails, and which has a cult-like following much like some of the worst theories of global warming zealots – Anthony
“It occurred to me….” To avoid political correctness and say what they really think people say, let me play Devil’s Advocate.
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
One minute people say government does too much, the next they demand action to resolve problems. Environmentalists demand government stop global warming, but oppose remedial actions like spreading iron filings on the oceans to increase uptake of CO2 or spraying chemicals into the atmosphere to create clouds to block sunlight and reduce global temperatures. Both actions are wrong because they constitute geo-engineering – governments playing God. The real problem is neither governments nor opponents know what is happening, but think they do, so demand action. Doing nothing is better if you don’t understand, contrary to the false claim of the precautionary principle. Environmental issues are a war and as Aeschylus said “In war truth is the first casualty”.
Figure 1 shows the different atmospheric layers each defined by temperature changes that reflect different chemistry.
The critical boundary is the Tropopause between the Troposphere, where 99% of the weather occurs, and the Stratosphere. It’s a very distinct boundary marking different density of gases and a change in temperature from a decrease with altitude to an increase. There are few gases thinly spread in the Stratosphere.
Figure 1 shows the Tropopause at 17 km. Actually, this varies considerably from Equator to Poles, mostly because of temperature. Seasonal temperatures also create differences. Variation at the Equator is 17 km (winter) to 19 km (summer). At the Poles it is 7km (winter) to 10 km (summer). Seasonal range is greater at the Poles because of greater seasonal temperature range.
Naturally, it is far more complicated. Understanding of some Troposphere dynamics are very recent. The Tropopause is not continuous, being broken by wind circulation patterns as Figure 2 shows.
PFJ =Polar Front Jet; STJ = SubTropical Jet
Twenty years ago my graduate class in Applied Climatology involved a briefing as a commercial pilot flying from Winnipeg to Vancouver. I realized most flights were partly in the lower Stratosphere. Since then these flights have increased because of better aircraft pressurization and more efficient engines in colder temperatures at higher altitudes.
I learned of changing flight patterns when flying search and rescue in northern and Arctic Canada. Flights increased significantly because of the end of the Cold War. with more flights over greater distances and different routes. The amount of traffic has increased significantly, especially the number of flights to Asia, most of which fly out of North America using “great circle” routes that brings them over western North America and Alaska or over the Pole.
Great circle routes take Asian bound aircraft across the general westerly flow of the upper level winds. This means condensation trails and high level clouds, especially Cirrus and contrails in the lower stratosphere are being dispersed in the same direction. Temperatures at these altitudes mean most of the gases condense directly to ice crystals. This makes them very visible, but also slow to dissipate.
A Contrail is exhaust from an aircraft engine cooling very rapidly below the dew point temperature and condensing into a visible trail of microscopic droplets. Through binoculars you can see the gap between the jet engine and the beginning of the trail. Earlier I mentioned that the gas constituency of the lower Stratosphere, where these planes fly, is different being much thinner and colder than in the upper Troposphere. Aircraft exhaust is a much higher percentage of total gas in the Stratosphere. This creates very different contrails, rates of dissipation and other factors. I mentioned that there are clouds in the lower Stratosphere called Noctilucent clouds. Here are some pictures of these clouds from Wikipedia:
Compare those images with these of Cirrus clouds also retrieved from Wikipedia.
Many confuse noctilucent clouds with chemtrails or contrails. Many confuse lower stratosphere contrails with chemtrails. It’s probably because most they want to see chemtrails. I’ve received many photos as evidence of chemtrails that are contrails, high cirrus or noctilucent events.
Noctilucent cloud occurrences are reportedly increasing. Is it possible the increase is because noctilucent clouds “ …are most commonly observed in the summer months at latitudes between 50° and 70° north and south of the equator.” These are the latitudes at which most flight increases have occurred. It is likely the increase in reported chemtrails are actually contrails from lower stratosphere flights.
There may be issues with flights in the stratosphere but nobody is really looking, possibly because the obvious solution is politically unattractive. Fuel consumption increases at lower altitudes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) doesn’t include the lower Stratosphere in their models. From the 2007 Science report:
“Due to the computational cost associated with the requirement of a well-resolved stratosphere, the models employed for the current assessment do not generally include the QBO.”
The QBO is linked with El Nino/La Nina. They, as well as ozone and clouds in the Stratosphere, are significant factors in Tropospheric weather. Some claim Stratospheric changes explain global temperatures better than IPCC and other models. Lu et al wrote:
All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE (cosmic-ray driven electron-induced-reaction) mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.
We need answers from science, free from politics. People need to sort out what actions and issues governments should be taking, but we can only do that if we understand the issues. Since we don’t, it is better to do nothing.
We must avoid the irresponsibility of the precautionary principle.
Related articles
- Chemtrails versus Contrails: Do Conspiracy Theories Make Sense? (cliffmass.blogspot.com)
- Weather control conspiracy theories: scientifically unjustifiable (washingtonpost.com)
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The quality control of aviation fuel is robust. The idea that there is some clandestine/secret government program is putting some kind of contaminate substance in jet fuel is the silliest thing I’ve ever heard. To believe in chemtrails you have to believe that thousands and thousands of pilots, mechanics, ground service technicians, refiners and fuel transport companies have all amazingly managed to keep this secret from the public. Occam’s razor applies very well here…
Philip Peake says:
September 2, 2013 at 4:35 pm
On HAARP — although it closed down months ago there are still websites publishing graphs of RF intensity due to HAARP. When you challenge them with the fact that there is no HAARP, they counter that there are new, secret, sites in other locations.
HAARP, chemtrails, AGW … its all the same, an ever shifting definition with shadowy organizations intent on enslaving the population and destroying the world.
_______________________
I know a couple of true believers in HAARP, chemtrails, etc. It is completely pointless to include actual science or math in any discussion with those people, as they are convinced of conspiracies which are unencumbered by natural laws. All one can do is to be impersonal to their view of reality and try not to think things about them which are too unkind.
wws says:
September 2, 2013 at 4:28 pm
“… the sad part is that he’s far from the worst relative I’ve had. Sigh.”
_____________________________
Hells bells, sounds like we’re almost related.
I think this is cool:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mig-29s_intercepeted_by_F-15s_-_DF-ST-90-05759.jpg
The video http://hypeitng.com/2013/06/turkish-airlines-777-fc-barcelona-livery-contrails/ shows contrails originating from the two engines under the wings. The wing tips are much further apart than the contrails.
No one believed the NSA was collecting virtually 100% of all Americans communication data before Edward Snowden blew the whistle on it. They’re even building a multi-billion dollar NSA facility in Bluffdale Utah called the Utah Data Center to store all our data forever. Who would have thunk it?
For more reading on Contrails/Chemtrails might I suggest Bill Whittle’s “Seeing the Unseen” Part 1 and 2 (and 3 if you can find it) as a primer. Should be required reading for just about anyone.
I got into it with some “chemtrails” believers and none of them had any technical education at all.
None of them seem to have much in the way of critical thinking skills either.
I am an engineer, pilot, former aircraft owner, and former Boeing employee, and have been around aviation all my life.
The reason for the seeming increase in contrails is twofold. One is the much greater number of flights now than there were back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, and the other is that today’s airliner is a much bigger aircraft, with much more powerful engines than existed 40-50 years ago. The amount of horsepower is much higher, therefore the amount of water vapor exiting the engine is many times greater. That plus the fact that they can also fly at higher altitudes means that contrails are more noticeable.
Anyone who has ever been around commercial aircraft knows that there are literally hundreds of people who interact with each airplane, and there is no way that someone could alter an aircraft and somehow stuff additional tanks in the already very cramped space on board without someone noticing. In addition how would tanks be filled with anyone noticing? The size of the conspiracy required to keep all those folks quiet would be enormous.
Many, many other reasons that the whole “chemtrails” nonsense is bogus, but its amazing how doggedly those who believe in it will stick to that belief – regardless of the facts presented.
Anthony,
I think it appropriate that you deal with some of the “conspiracy theory” wackiness that has poisoned the layman’s common parlance wrt science.
Many of the issues hatching in the backrooms of the those who wish to exploit populism to drive a political agenda are lined up to supplant AGW as the “unscience” fear monger preoccupation.
Global Warming caused by people was, is, and likely will always total BS exploited to divert resources from the tax base to fund cockamamie social engineering efforts from the left. Now, like then, fake and abused science will be enrolled to give credibility to hoax science for purposes unknown at this time. Chem-trails, HARP, Fluoride, the NSA, mind control, GMOs, etc etc will compete for prominence by the various lobbies to become the news issue of the decade.
I say since AGW ,as an issue to serious scientists, is a corpse, WUWT can be a zombie killer for the Global Warming dead-enders but also as an advocate of serious science literacy in the popular world.
Since WUWT is the definitive word on AGW, it can, due its credibility become a reliable arbiter in the discussions if very popular and unscientific pollutants that persist in common culture.
Please discuss and debunk the crazy unscience in the following:
1) Alien panspermia…. no evidence at all
2) HARP as a global Weather modification agent.
3) Chem-Trails
4) Fluoride
5) NSA… big brother (HMMMMMM)
6) The story about Franken-Foods
7) the list goes on…
I guess I am suggesting a more advanced and sustained effort at MYTHBUSTING, especially those MYTHS that creep into the pocketbooks of tax payers by way of the abuse of science through snake oil salesmanship. Like an issue focused JUNK-Science.
“Google “wingtip contrails” change to images. ENJOY ! :-)”
I think you are mixing up high-altitude contrails with very low altitude wing-tip vortices. There is no noticeable rotation in contrails while wing tip vorticies have an intense rotation when they are made visible in conditions where dew-point and temperature are nearly the same.
High altitude contrails are formed when water vapor in engine exhaust condenses into ice crystals which is a totally different phenomena. Interestingly, piston engine aircraft form contrails as well. Here are some pictures of piston engine contrails from 1941 that would put any turbine aircraft’s contrails to shame:
http://contrailscience.com/fightercontrails-over-kent-1941/
“We need answers from science, free from politics. People need to sort out what actions and issues governments should be taking, but we can only do that if we understand the issues. Since we don’t, it is better to do nothing. We must avoid the irresponsibility of the precautionary principle.”
If I am wrong about this, anyone out there is free to correct me. It is my understanding though that science cannot prove a negative–it cannot prove that something does NO harm. Since the precautionary principle demands exactly that from science, it is irrational. It therefore cannot be the basis for deciding or determining anything having to do with science.
Pure and simple.
“We must avoid the irresponsibility of the precautionary principle.”
Playing the sorcerers apprentice with the global climate does not constitute exercising the precautionary principle.
Trying to service your car before you understand auto-mechanics does not constitute precautionary preventive maintenance.
This talk about chemtrails sparked a memory, about mind vs. matter…
In the early 1990s, Vancouver had a problem with a gypsy moth infestation. The local governments decided to do aerial spraying, with a natural pesticide called Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki ( Btk ). There was a huge outcry about poisoning the city, that children would die.
Before the Btk pesticide was applied to the city of Vancouver, the aerial spray planes made a few practice flights over the city. The city was flooded with calls about breathing ailments and allergic reactions. Even though nothing had been sprayed, some people insisted that they were having breathing problems.
Eventually, the aerial spraying occured. There were no known (real) side effects. The gypsy moths died off.
Gypsy Moth in British Columbia
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/gypsymoth/
What is Btk?
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/gypsymoth/whatisbtk.htm
massagrabber says:
September 2, 2013 at 5:12 pm
How do you identify “highly refined”? If you could get some on glass microscope slides, it would be interesting to look at them with a microscope. Local water testing outfits might be able to do some quantitative analyses for you.
“”””””…..Ric Werme says:
September 2, 2013 at 5:04 pm
usurbrain says:
September 2, 2013 at 4:26 pm
Look at this link http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Comparison_US_standard_atmosphere_1962.svg
Not that the curve for the speed of sound AND temperature in the atmosphere at altitude matches closely. I think that with the correct scale, the two would almost be on top of each other. WHY?
I’m not certain, but I’m confident the answer has to do with the velocity of air molecules. Temperature tracks kinetic energy, and that has a v^2 term. The higher the temperature, the higher the velocity, and the faster the air molecules can transmit the pressure wave that constitutes sound……”””””
Norty norty !
Every heard of “Read everything. before doing anything !!”
So I knew that the speed of sound (longitudinal compression waves) had to do with the restoring force on a displaced element of air; which depends on the pressure, and then it depends on the mass of that air element as to how fast the pressure disturbance can accelerate the air mass.
So I knew it depended on density and bulk compressibility; I even could work it out at one time.
So if you read what the evil Wiki says about it, it does confirm that density and pressure are involved. But if you read all of it, when they get down to brass tacks, and figure it out properly from ideal gas laws and the like; plus assume adiabatic conditions, they then declare: The pressure and density cancel out and as a result the velocity of sound (in a specific ideal gas) DEPENDS ONLY ON THE TEMPERATURE.
For ordinary air which is not a bad imitation of an ideal gas, and generally has a fixed molar composition, then the velocity of sound, almost exactly follows Temperature.
So your eyes are not deceived it is supposed to be that way.
Well for the nit pickers, there are secondary and tertiary effects that gum it up a little like how a particular gas molecule stores heat. So mono0atomic, and diatomic gases behave differently.
So it’s a pretty good exposition there in Wiki. I can’t vouch for the accuracy; but they do a fairly thorough job of exploring all the fine shades of grey.
But basically, in the atmosphere the velocity of ordinary sound waves follows Temperature only.
michaelwiseguy says:
September 2, 2013 at 6:38 pm
When an airplane is “lingering” how long does it linger for? Are they making rounded contrails? Jets can’t make sharp turns, so a lingering jet should be doing more than making tic-tac-toe patterns.
I have an iPhone app called “Plane Finder” I got to identify the jets that fly over my property the White Mountains of New Hampshire. I figured they were international flights, and Plane Finder confirmed that. Dallas, Houston, Memphis are all common origination places, London, Paris, Barcelona, Rome are common destinations.
The tic-tac-toe patterns are generally created by jets following “jet ways”, routes that air traffic control and pilots fly. As plane after plane goes along the jetway, crosswinds can blow the contrails off to the side and you get parallel contrails. if a pair of jetways cross (they’re assigned different altitudes!) then you get grids.
Polar air masses that are 6km in thickness… and the Ferrell tri cellular model! Good one… So sad this antiquated vision is still peddled. No excuses.
Paul Westhaver says:
September 2, 2013 at 9:39 pm
Please discuss and debunk the crazy unscience in the following:
1) Alien panspermia…. no evidence at all
2) HARP as a global Weather modification agent.
3) Chem-Trails
4) Fluoride
5) NSA… big brother (HMMMMMM)
6) The story about Franken-Foods
7) the list goes on…
I don’t feel qualified to address any of the above as I don’t have a degree in crazy unscience. But with regard to Item 1), I would like to note that it has found favor among a number of respectable scientists including Svante Arrhenius, a hero of the alarmists, who early in the 20th century produced a detailed panspermia hypothesis, and the much maligned Fred Hoyle, who to give him credit was an early critic of modern CAGW who pointed out in the 1980s that any CO2-induced “greenhouse effect” would be far to small to result in runaway warming. Interestingly, Stephen Hawking has also touched on the possibility of panspermia. As you point out, there no evidence has been found for alien panspermia and as far as I can see it is an unfalsifiable hypothesis since no matter how many meteors, asteroids or comets we might sample, we could never be certain that the “pansperms” were not lurking somewhere else.
Airliners fly at jet stream altitudes and contrails can persist for hours. A 150 knot jet stream can blow a contrail over 1,000 km from its point of origin in just 4 hours. The contrail you see overhead may have come from an aircraft very far away from you and been created hours ago.
There is a differnce between Chemtrials and Contrails.
Chemtrails require the action oif a malevelonet agent with no believable motivationor opportunity. nad no evedience that it exists.
Contrails do exist. Contrails are increasing for the reasons that Kurt Hanke says at September 2, 2013 at 9:14 pm
Contrails deserve investigation. They are real.
” Some claim Stratospheric changes explain global temperatures better than IPCC and other models”
Exactly.
A warming stratosphere pushes tropopause height down and a cooling stratosphere pulls it up.
A different level of solar effect on stratosphere temperatures between poles and equator will alter the gradient of tropopause height between equator and poles which then allows latitudinal sliding of jets and climate zones so as to change global cloud cover and albedo to change the amount of solar energy entering the oceans to fuel the climate system.
“Figure 1 shows the Tropopause at 17 km. Actually, this varies considerably from Equator to Poles, mostly because of temperature. Seasonal temperatures also create differences. Variation at the Equator is 17 km (winter) to 19 km (summer). At the Poles it is 7km (winter) to 10 km (summer). Seasonal range is greater at the Poles because of greater seasonal temperature range.”
Now just consider that the range at the poles would be even greater than that at the equator on longer timescales commensurate with, say, the millennial solar cycle and there you have it.
More details here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/
At the very least such a proposition needs investigation and serious consideration.
Note that the Svensmark cosmic ray hypothesis becomes unnecessary since the change in the length of lines of air mass mixing from zonal to meridional jets is sufficient to achieve the required change in total global cloudiness.
Meanwhile the chemtrail nonsense is simply due to a failure to appreciate the infinite variety of lingering effects from contrails depending on the atmospheric conditions at various heights.
Occam’s Razor where are you now?
Chemtrails? Where do they hide the tanks that contain the chemtrail fluid? Where are the Certificate of Airworthiness papers approving the modifications? Or, if only in the normal fuel tanks how do the chemtrailers suggest the fuel tanker drivers know which airliners need ‘chemtrail fuel” and which don’t? And where are the tankers picking up the chemtrail fluid? Shell and BP and others have ‘secret’ chemtrail operations?
It beggars belief that humans can be so incredibly dumb as to think this has been going on for years and no one has ‘blown the whistle’ on the project.
Are all Governments with airliner operators, in cahoots?
Nothing to see here – move on……….
Sometimes I despair at the gullibility, nay stupidity, of those who will believe in such ludicrous ideas as chemtrails. And then I read a post such as that from Brian Johnson UK (September 2, 2013 at 11:58 pm) which restores my faith in humanity.
Thank you Brian, I award you my totally unofficial, totally subjective, post of the thread.
September 2, 2013 at 11:15 pm
“The tic-tac-toe patterns are generally created by jets following “jet ways”, routes that air traffic control and pilots fly. As plane after plane goes along the jetway, crosswinds can blow the contrails off to the side and you get parallel contrails. if a pair of jetways cross (they’re assigned different altitudes!) then you get grids.”
But the airport is 35 miles from my house and there are no landing delays do to the the low volume of air traffic. Those airplanes over my house are not passenger jets in holding patterns in my airspace. Whose jets are they? Who owns them? It’s just a scientific mathematical analysis to figure that out.
I’ve flown in and out of RSW dozens of times in the past ten years. I was in a holding pattern once due to bad weather where I saw the thousands of un-developed lots on Lehigh Acres. Never was I in a holding pattern over Cape Coral 35 Miles north. Why are all these jet planes over Cape Coral polluting my airspace?