The WUWT Hot Sheet for August 17th, 2013

The warmer they say it is getting the colder and more World Sea Ice there is. 289,000 sq km above 29 year mean today.
Sea ice Canary’s are thriving.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/368721877474099200

So when truly ripe apples hit the stores for the first time in living memory, it is a disaster, right? Something must be done about it, urgently.

The lack of emphasis on error bars and the like in the climate change data & debate has always bothered me too. The false precision is just part of the propaganda.

An article in PLOS ONE (open access) titled “Environmental roots of the Late Bronze Age crisis” …

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0071004
This climate shift caused crop failures, dearth and famine, which precipitated or hastened socio-economic crises and forced regional human migrations at the end of the LBA in the Eastern Mediterranean and southwest Asia.

Cause unknown but not industrialisation
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If the Authors don’t know the cause or possible cause it is because they didn’t bother to do a literature search or they didn’t like what they found when they did so played dumb.
A warmer climate means more evaporation and therefore more rain. Also if Stephen Wilde is correct, a warmer world has zonal jets. A change to a cooler world is going to change the position of the jets and therefore change the rain fall patterns.
Here are the Papers that support that conclusion:
They actually did field research in this study on atmospheric circulation shifts and looked a time period in the ball park of the above study.

06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum
ABSTRACT
Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

Two papers about rainfall also with the ‘Sun Connection’ and again with actual field studies.

Indian monsoon – Solar Connection
Manish Tiwari and R. Ramesh
Abstract
Solar forcing on the Indian monsoon has been an important area of research with several workers proposing it as the governing factor for the southwest (SW) monsoon strength during the Holocene. But most of these studies are based on the SW monsoon wind and not the precipitation proxies. We analyzed stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of three species of planktic foraminifera (Gs. ruber, Gs. sacculifer and Gr. menardii) using the stable isotope ratio mass spectrometer in a sediment core from the eastern Arabian Sea that yields the past variations in SW monsoon precipitation. High-resolution isotopic analyses show that solar forcing likely played a major role in governing the past variations in SW monsoon precipitation on centennial timescale.
Introduction
…The SW coast of India (along the Western Ghats) offers an opportunity to determine the past fluctuations in precipitation as it receives abundant rainfall during the SW monsoon that gets into the Arabian Sea as freshwater runoff6. We carried out high-resolution oxygen isotope analysis of planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core, namely SK-145-9, from the southwestern continental margin of India that provides past variations in monsoon precipitation…..
Results & Discussion
….The studied species are known to grow predominantly during the SW monsoon months and hence are likely to record the signals arising mainly due to SW monsoon fluctuation. In the eastern Arabian Sea, SSS variation is mainly controlled by the variation in the supply of fresh water as surface runoff from the adjacent Western Ghats during the southwest monsoon….
A reduction in SSS occurs due to the influx of large amount of fresh water, depleted in 18O, as surface runoff into the coastal eastern Arabian Sea during intense SW monsoon precipitation events. In the eastern Arabian Sea, for every per mil decline in salinity, the δ18O value decreases by 0.33 ‰6, 25. Thus a depleted δ18O signal indicates enhanced southwest monsoon precipitation whereas an enriched δ18O signal points towards reduced precipitation due to weaker southwest monsoon…..
The Sun – Monsoon Relationship
Bard et al.28 reconstructed TSI data for the past 1200 years, which has been taken for the present study. They based the TSI estimation on the common fluctuations of the 14C and 10Be production rates obtained from tree rings and polar ice sheets. The TSI curve used in this study assumes a 0.25% reduction in TSI during Maunder Minimum3. The TSI data are compared with the δ18O in all the three foraminiferal species…
Conclusion
Excellent correlation between the high-resolution isotopic data with TSI reconstruction indicates a likelihood of solar control over the SW monsoon on centennial timescales. It shows that although decadal scale variations in the TSI (0.1%) do not seem enough to perturb the SW monsoon but longer timescale fluctuations can bring about changes in precipitation not only by increasing land-ocean thermal contrast but also by various other positive feedback processes such as enhanced solar ultraviolet radiation & its absorption by ozone etc.

Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River? Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Yuk L. Yung
ABSTRACT
We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622–1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Nile’s high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.

More on the Sun-climate connection

Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 141 Atmospheric ionization and clouds as links between solar activity and climate, in Solar Variability and Its Effects on Climate Tinsley, B. A., and F. Yu (2004)
ABSTRACT
Observations of changes in cloud properties that correlate with the 11-year cycles observed in space particle fluxes are reviewed. The correlations can be understood in terms of one or both of two microphysical processes; ion mediated nucleation (IMN) and electroscavenging. IMN relies on the presence of ions to provide the condensation sites for sulfuric acid and water vapors to produce new aerosol particles, which, under certain conditions, might grow into sizes that can be activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Electroscavenging depends on the buildup of space charge at the tops and bottoms of clouds as the vertical current density (Jz) in the global electric circuit encounters the increased electrical resistivity of the clouds. Space charge is electrostatic charge density due to a difference between the concentrations of positive and negative ions. Calculations indicate that this electrostatic charge on aerosol particles can enhance the rate at which they are scavenged by cloud droplets. The aerosol particles for which scavenging is important are those that act as in-situ ice forming nuclei (IFN) and CCN. Both IMN and electro scavenging depend on the presence of atmospheric ions that are generated, in regions of the atmosphere relevant for effects on clouds, by galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The space charge depends, in addition, on the magnitude of Jz. The magnitude of Jz depends not only on the GCR flux, but also on the fluxes of Me V electrons from the radiation belts, and the ionospheric potentials generated by the solar wind, that can vary independently of the GCR flux.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Two solar cycles of nonincreasing magnetic flux 23 OCT 2002
C. N. Arge, E. Hildner, V. J. Pizzo, J. W. Harvey
ABSTRACT
Since measurements began in the late nineteenth century, there has been a secular increase (with superposed ripples due to solar cycles) of the aa geomagnetic index [Mayaud, 1972]. Starting from this observation, Lockwood et al. [1999a, 1999b] conclude that the total open solar magnetic flux has increased by 41% from 1964 to 1995 and by 130% over all but the last 5 years of the twentieth century. However, solar data for more than two solar cycles – Carrington maps from Mount Wilson, and Wilcox Solar Observatories and newly reanalyzed data from the National Solar Observatory – show no secular trend in overall photospheric flux. More importantly, the magnetic flux open to interplanetary space (as calculated from photospheric measurements and assuming potential fields to a height of 2.5 R⊙) fails to show evidence of a secular increase over the last two solar cycles. Like Lockwood et al., we do not explicitly take account of transient events. Thus both data and calculations imply that the Sun’s average coronal magnetic flux has not increased over the last two solar cycles. Analysis of simulations with the potential field source surface model shows that the interplanetary magnetic flux is not simply related to the erupted photospheric solar magnetic flux. Both results are in agreement with the findings of Wang et al. [2000]. The topology, rather than the strength, of the emergent solar magnetic field may be a major determinant of the interplanetary magnetic field experienced at Earth.

HMMmmmm, Interesting. Those last two cycles would be cycle 22 and 23. A graphical comparison of solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24

kadaka (KD Knoebel) says: @ August 17, 2013 at 9:24 am
…Climate, Not Spaniards, Brought Diseases That Killed Aztecs
Acuna-Soto is now convinced that the death knell for the Aztecs was an indigenous hemorrhagic fever virus spread by rodents, not the Spanish conquest.
The rat population was depleted during the drought, when food was scarce. But once the rains returned, food and water were suddenly plentiful and the number of infected rats exploded, spreading the deadly scourge to humans….
What happened to all the snakes and lizards that should have eaten the extra rats that were spreading the hemorrhagic fever?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
What happened is the people ATE THEM along with the rats and anything else they could get their hands on. You get a drought, you get famine, you get people eating what ever they can find. The Genocide in the Ukraine showed that. (Don’t read this link if you are squeamish.)
Civilization is very thin, a result of abundant food and energy. I wish the kumbaya types would figure that out.
What she also left out is you get a weaken population with a compromised immune system.

New image, “17:00:07 UT” is up. Spots moved slightly, large crease still there.
Note to those who care: The Solar Dynamics Observatory images are downloadable here, select “Frames” to get the images in the time range selected in a zipped file. Select “Download” and you get a MP4 (movie) file.

This abstract from the Bronze Age article is a hoot:
“Abstract
The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, ”
Ahem. Who got left off that list?
“collapsed famously 3200 years ago and has remained one of the mysteries of the ancient world since the event’s retrieval began in the late 19th century AD/CE. Iconic Egyptian bas-reliefs and graphic hieroglyphic and cuneiform texts portray the proximate cause of the collapse as the invasions of the “Peoples-of-the-Sea” at the Nile Delta, the Turkish coast, and down into the heartlands of Syria and Palestine where armies clashed, famine-ravaged cities abandoned, and countrysides depopulated. Here we report palaeoclimate data from Cyprus for the Late Bronze Age crisis, alongside a radiocarbon-based chronology integrating both archaeological and palaeoclimate proxies, which reveal the effects of abrupt climate change-driven famine and causal linkage with the Sea People invasions”
Onose. The invasion of the Sea People! I can just see the cheesy comic book.
“in Cyprus and Syria. The statistical analysis of proximate and ultimate features of the sequential collapse reveals the relationships of climate-driven famine, sea-borne-invasion, region-wide warfare, and politico-economic collapse, in whose wake new societies and new ideologies were created.”
Can’t have new ideologies…

“Climate Change Is Altering the Taste and Texture of Fuji Apples”
Did they check the radiation level?

dbstealey says:
August 17, 2013 at 10:51 am
OWHarold,
You might be interested in this [click in image to embiggen].
You forgot the /Joke tag with that!

Who cares if the Titanic is going down? Deck chairs are in need or rearranging, and by Jove we shall do it!
Or we could actually try to do something about the looming disaster, but obviously that would make us racist. No, better the end of everything than that.
I guess I’ve just got a bug in my craw. I’m not yet 30 and finally met the right woman for me, and then all this has to happen. Everything seems to be going your way and then some bastard drops a new Dark Age on you. It’s some next level bullsh!t if you ask me.

M Courtney says:
August 17, 2013 at 2:24 pm
OldWeirdHarold says at August 17, 2013 at 10:38 am
This has been known about for more than half a century.
The real question is who were the “sea peoples” that did the raiding.
My own guess is the Greeks. Homer describes similar raids from the other viewpoint on the way towards Troy.
Remember, Troy was real.>/i>
Could have been the Phoenicians, in an ealier mind set, they later became the great traders guarding knowledge of the route to England’s tin mines.
http://www.phoenician.org/sea_peoples.htm

Never liked Fuji apples, nor Red Delicious.

@jim S –
Next you know Interior will be burning heretics (uh, skeptics) at the stake.

RACookPE1978 says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:04 am
OldWeirdHarold says:
August 17, 2013 at 10:38 am
This abstract from the Bronze Age article is a hoot:
“The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, ”

Ain’t there sum Jewish-type peoples they jest plum fergot ta mention buildin’ themselves sum big ole cities and temples aver dere sumplace in dat region?

I could swear I saw Palestine in that list, and that was Israelite territory so your Jewish types are included. When confronted with “Who’s missing?” my first thought was “Minoan perhaps.” But what’s pleasing to see, though of little surprise these days, is the inclusion of the Hittites. Let’s remember there was a time when the secular world would not accept the existence of such a race when the only evidence for its existence was in the Bible.
That reminds me: climate stability is promised in the Bible too. Wonder if any atheists would be interested. Nah, guess not.