Temperature above 80 degrees north drops below freezing early, and continues to drop.
Many people have been watching the remarkable early drop in air temperature at the DMI plot here:
![meanT_2013[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/meant_20131.png?quality=75)
This drop looks to be about two weeks early. As this next analysis of sea surface temperature shows, much of the area is below freezing. Of course in seawater, ice doesn’t form until temperatures get below 28.4°F (-2°C), so it is close, but not quite there yet. [Note: due to lower salinity in the Arctic seawater freezes at -1.8C according to this essay at NOAA by Peter Wadhams]
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at sourceThe DMI sea ice plot looks to be slowing significantly, but has not made a turn yet.
![icecover_current_new[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current_new11.png?quality=75)
The JAXA plot isn’t quite so different from previous years, but does show some slowing:
- Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
With this slowdown becoming evident, and temperature dropping early, the possibility exists that a turn in ice melt may start earlier than usual. If it does, we might see a turn begin in about two to three weeks if there’s any linkage between 80N temperature and sea ice extent. Typically, we see a turn in Arctic sea ice melt around September 15th to the 25th.
Of interest is this plot done by the blog “sunshine hours” which shows the difference between Arctic sea ice in 2012 and 2013.
He writes:
The difference is quite dramatic if you graph the anomaly % from the 30 year mean.
Until day 175 or so, the anomaly was only around -5% or so (note that the anomaly actually went positive for a few days in 2012).
While 2013 was later, both started drifting down. 2013 has stabilized at -15%. At this time last year 2012 was -30%.
Click image to enlarge.
Check out all of the data at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page
UPDATE:
Some commenters have noticed a large drop in today’s most recent plot.
First, regarding this graph:
![icecover_current[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/icecover_current1.png?quality=75)
That’s the old DMI plot, which DMI says we should now use this one on this page:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
They write:
The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.
And, that could be either an instrument failure or a processing failure. We’ve seen spikes like that before. It might also be real data, we won’t know until the next update.
I tend to favor loss of data, as reader “DJ” points out in comments, see this image:
![satcon.arc.d-00[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/satcon-arc-d-001.png?quality=75)
But yes, this post was edited last night at about 11PM PDT, and DMI updated the graph a few hours later.
Thanks for the entertainment guys. Reading this thread has been like watching a playground fight in slow motion. But why don’t you swap email addresses or phone numbers, and continue behind the bike sheds
The question we should be asking is has anything changed in the process of collecting the data and producing the graph to cause this marked drop in temperatures. It is definitely the question that would be asked if the current year had stayed above the average line all summer instead of below it. Were stations dropped or added? Or “corrected”
Excellent point Skeptic. This is an unusual trace compared to all the archived traces from previous years. None look like the current one in terms of crossing/not crossing the average trace during the melt season.
Noticed Arctic Sea Ice forum hero member Chris Reynolds asking why the cause of the muted melt of 2013. Was hoping Mosher as an interested lurker could help enlighten him as I am not able to comment there. The cause is well known. The arctic sea temperature is colder under the ice so there is less melting. The sea is colder because the currents coming into the arctic are colder this year. Poor Chris feels it is due to changes in air temp and pressure, the dipole thingamajig , not realising that this is an effect of, not a cause of ice melt .
Nev is a Hero member as well.
MST may be a newbie member, (it is ranked) trying for hero status.
Keep an eye on Antarctic ice. It’s nearing last years record and still has a month to go. 2013 might be shattered by a mile…
RACookPE1978 says:
August 15, 2013 at 3:50 pm
To your point about the 24 hr day, any single location will only have the Sun directly overhead for a few hours, after that the angle increases and more of the incoming Solar energy get reflected as glare.
refreeze of the arctic will follow as predicted
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/
Sounds familiar? Back then, in 1922, they had seen that the arctic ice melt was due to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. However, by 1950 all that same ‘lost” ice had frozen back. I therefore predict that all lost arctic ice will also come back, from 2020-2035 as also happened from 1935-1950. Antarctic ice is already increasing.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
From Angech on August 16, 2013 at 8:20 am:
I Googled for that forum, think I found it:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/
But my browser won’t let me go there. Invalid Security Certificate, appears registered to the hosting service’s server and not the site.
When I consider adding an exception, it says “This site attempts to identify itself with invalid information.”
This is puzzling. But I see in the search results this forum was started by Neven Curlin, “associated” with his Arctic sea ice blog. Then warnings about the site supplying “invalid information” make more sense.
Neven’s “Arctic Sea Ice Blog” is a hotbed of warmist lunacy, all cheerleading for the end of the world as we know it so they can wallow in their righteousness and catch some of that tax funding. But Gaia is not following their little script, darn her!! And now on the Ides of August I see Arctic temperatures are plummetting, et tu Gaia! All those rainwater ponds near the pole that Neven’s acolytes have been praying praying praying would be a harbinger of the ice cap’s demise, are re-freezing. Because of that, the sea ice area graphs show (shock!) sudden flatlining and even rising as the warmista graphers rush to CYA. Don’t look for Mosher to lend any knowledge there, as he writes there “this is a wonderful place to learn”, HA HA.
And the early chill grows deeper. Today,s falling DMI N of 80 is turning into a ‘nosedive’. I just thumbed through all of the years, and there is nothing even close to what this graph is showing for 2013. Only 2009 and 2010 show a little wiggle of difference that could be interpreted as the beginning of a slide to cooler temperatures earlier. At the same time the Antarctica,s daily graph is also showing a steeply rising line, for the sea ice growth.
MiCro says:
August 16, 2013 at 11:35 am (replying to)
RACookPE1978 says:
August 15, 2013 at 3:50 pm
At that position of the change in Arctic Sea Ice that you are interested in, what is the actual solar radiation possible at that latitude, and, over a full 24 hour day, what is the ACTUAL clear-day and cloudy day potential solar radiation at the top of the sea ice surface?
Probably nothing can so clearly show the difference between actual near-Arctic solar energy received and “nominal” near-equator solar energy received as Dr Frank Bason measurements on voyages in 2006:
Solar Radiation Measurements from Greenland to
Antarctica – Optics Table Data from the Danish
Galathea III Expedition 2006-2007
The plot for Accra, Ghana shows 8x consecutive days of clear sky, 975 watts/sq meter.
The plot for Uummannaq, Greenland (latitude 70.7, Oct 10-Oct 19, days-of-year 283 – 294) shows 10x days of decreasing radiation, beginning at only 180 watts/meter, ending at only 92.
And that 92 watts/sq mtr was at noon, on a clear, calm day. At noon. The rest of the 24 hour “day” was even lower, and was -of course – zero or near zero from 4:00 PM through 8:00 AM. But heat loss continued the whole time: low-range radiation “out” , conduction “out” , and convection “out”, and no solar radiation “in” for 3/4 of the time.
See:
http://www.soldata.dk/%5CPDF%5CRadiation-Data-Frank-Bason-Riga-2007.pdf
It does seem like the impact of the polar storm has come and gone.
http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice_extent_graphs.php
Nz willy good to see you about. Mosher’s comment? Saw that too, at least they let him post and he might have been sarcastic. He is on our side but doesn’t know or want to admit it. Hence his angst.
The graph’s are good but the interpretations are monotonous and orchestrated.
NSIDC has the ice actually increasing today/yesterday while the average loss is about 55,000 km^2 in the average climatology.
Showing my bias, I hope the sea ice maintains the trends and leaves us with a significant recovery this year. It will help everyone come to grips with the issue that warming is far less than expected and should be downgraded. The Arctic sea ice was about the only thing which allowed the pessimistic forecasts to remain on the table.
Meanwhile, back at the “North Pole Camera…”
It got down to -8.0 Celcius again today. Rather than heading south towards Fram Strait, the camera is drifting northeast.
Something odd is going on up there. Usually I am content to stick with what I see from the camera’s view, but this year I’m starting to study other places. So I look at the DMI map of polar temperatures, to see if it is below freezing outside of the camera’s immediate neighborhood. Between yesterday (the 15th) at 00z, and today (the 16th) at 12z, roughly half the Arctic Ocean went from above freezing to below freezing. Don’t ask me to explain it. I can’t.
http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/08/16/the-big-chill-sea-ice-version/
The currents have changed, the Atlantic current is going up the east coast of Greenland, so ice is not going out Fram Strait. Also, some of the crazy readings you are seeing are the satellite operators going into CYA mode — there is far more leeway in how the data can be interpreted than is publicized. Since the Arctic is not co-operating in the meltists’ game, the time has come for disorderly retreat.
“Bill Illis says:
August 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm
Showing my bias, I hope the sea ice maintains the trends and leaves us with a significant recovery this year.”
Bill, Living in semi-rural New England, I am concerned about this winter.
The low temperatures above 80 north we see via DMI, and the early low temperatures at northern CA weather stations has me thinking the ice/snow cover will expand early.
This tends to bring down temperatures in this area.
We’ve already had the coolest August I can remember around here. We’ve had nights in the 40’s!
Caleb,
Check out http://weather.gc.ca/
The temperatures in NU (places like Alert/Eureka/Grise Ford/Resolute) are all below normal.
The cold temperatures are descending to lower latitudes early this year.
In support of:
Bill Illis says:
August 16, 2013 at 7:10 pm
William:
The years that had record Arctic sea ice had exceptionally cold fall and winter temperatures. That is what is required to get the thicker sea ice.
As you note the warmists go on and on with comments concerning the reduction of both extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice. If there is significant cooling due to the solar cycle 24 change it will be interesting to hear the explanations for a complete recovery of sea ice both poles.
There are multiple anomalies with the warming in the last 70 years and the last 150 years that cannot be explained by the general circulation models, assuming greenhouse gas forcing (CO2 and CH4) caused the warming. The sensitivity issue is likely the most important however the latitudinal anomaly is considered by some to be as important. The general circulation models did not predict high northern latitude warming. The Northern latitudes (ex-tropics) warmed twice as much as the planet as a whole and four times more than the tropics. (See Christy’s paper below for details.)
The latitudinal pattern of warming does not make sense from the standpoint of a greenhouse forcing mechanism as the greenhouse gases (all atmospheric gases) are evenly distributed in the atmosphere (the potential for warming is therefore similar for the entire global) and the actual warming is proportional to the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and the long wave radiation that is emitted to space at the latitude in question so the most amount of warming should be in the tropics.
The latitudinal warming observed is the same pattern that occurs in a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle (there have been nine (9) cycles D-O in the Holocene) and the D-O cycles are known to correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes. Svensmark’s cloud modulation mechanism is stronger at higher latitudes due to configuration of the geomagnetic field so that mechanism could explain the latitudinal pattern of warming observed.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.0581.pdf
Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth
vensmark estimated that roughly 70% of the warming in the last 100 years was due to solar magnetic cycle modulation of planetary cloud. Svensmark’s estimated is supported by Shaviv’s analysis in the attached paper. Based on Shaviv’s analysis the range of global cooling due to the current solar magnetic cycle change is estimated to be 0.47C ±0.19C or cooling in the range of 0.28C to 0.66C.
http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/uploads/media/Shaviv.pdf
On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget
In addition to Colorado mountain tops getting snow several times in the first two weeks of August – very, very rare! – Atlanta GA set a new record for the day: 64 (F) was the high!
I found a nice collection of polar view maps at: http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
Meanwhile, at the “North Pole Camera,” after reaching the coldest temperatures of this August, -8.9 at 0000z this Saturday morning, temperatures at our buoy have risen to -1.1 at 1500z. (from 16 degrees up to 30 degrees Fahrenheit.) The camera shows fog. I think “warmer” air, (it is still below freezing, after all,) seems to be getting pumped north and then east by a big gale that passed south of Iceland is is heading north of Scotland. It is still very cold north of Canada’s northernmost islands and up to the pole itself.
The DMI “extent” graph, which everyone was fussing about when it showed a big plunge a few days ago, (shown at the start of this post,) now actually shows a small uptick:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png
Anthony’s “Sea Ice Page” is now in second place, among “top posts” at this site.
(Concerned melting-ice-watchers want to know.)
@Pamela Gray “Note that temperature now is running lower and dipping earlier than it did in 2005.”
If you note the temperature curve North of the 80th parallel has been lower than IT EVER WAS since records have been taken from 1958 from roughly the 140th day of the year onwards.
Way lower.
But the ice is not higher. This maybe due to the fact that the previous years ice was probably thinner than it ever was.
RACookPE1978 says:
“We (collectively) are aware of its effect, have looked at its effect in real time on sound path ray paths and temperature vs depth curves …. ”
You missed my point … I was commenting on the blog comments, not on our scientific understanding of the relationship between salinity and temperature on density (which is well established)! Please go back and look at them 🙂
Anyone know why JAXA hasn’t updated since the 16th?