Sunspot count is virtually unchanged from last month :
It seems possible that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this.
A similar status quo in radio flux – little change from last month.
The Ap magnetic index dropped 4 units from last month, suggesting a slowing in the solar dynamo.
On August 1st, solar scientist David Hathaway updated his prediction page but the text is identical to last month – no change in the forecast.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
About the only significant even in the last month is that the solar polar fields have begun their reversal, indicating we are at “solar max”, which seems like a misnomer given the low activity observed at the moment. That’s why I think we may have seen the “double peak” and it is downhill from here.
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at sourceWatch the progress on the WUWT solar reference page
Whoops, second image link was a mistake. Oh well.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:25 am
What is that large “crease line” in the upper left section?
A flaw in the instrument, that has recently developed. I don’t know the precise cause, probably some mechanical or thermal defect [crack, …]. Space is a harsh environment.
lsvalgaard says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:28 am
This is NOT just Harvard’s list….
They say the temp. trend in the face of a grand solar minimum will be +0.10c +/- .05c per decade from 2020-2040.That [will] be flat out WRONG, since the temperature trend will be down prior to 2020, and should continue to at least until 2040.
They say what they say because they want to push their soon to be obsolete AGW theory ahead.
Gerald Meehl,Marsh and company are entrenched in [their] theory of AGW, and will go to any lengths to prove what they say is right , even in the face of present day realities showing them to be wrong on every single prediction they have made thus far.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:32 am
That will be flat out WRONG, since the temperature trend will be down prior to 2020
too many ‘will be’s. You have no clue as to what ‘will be’. Just wishful, unfounded thinking.
And SDO’s replacement will be launched and in position by when?
I mean, it’s not like we’re due for a Carrington event or a CME could wipe out civilization without warning, etc. STEREO is all we need and will be enough for now, right?
What is not understood is the field of climate change is not based on objective data,instead they have resorted to the manipulation of data, to ignore data or change data, that will not support their notions of AGW.
In addition they make it (mainstream) very hard for the many scientist who have a [completely] different view on climate change to have their thoughts expressed. Anotherwords they black ball [dissenting] views. This is why people like Piers have limited publications and citations.
While institutions like the Weather Channel,and company can readily spread their false views.
Who dare challenge the sacred AGW theory.
t
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:25 am
What is that large “crease line” in the upper left section?
A flaw in the instrument, that has recently developed. I don’t know the precise cause, probably some mechanical or thermal defect [crack, …]. Space is a harsh environment.
The crack[?] began to develop in March 2012 and has gotten worse ever since:
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/03/07/l4500.jpg
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/03/20/l4500.jpg
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/04/17/l4500.jpg
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/06/10/l4500.jpg
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2013/08/17/l4500.jpg
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:43 am
And SDO’s replacement will be launched and in position by when?
none anticipated nor scheduled. But it is only one sensor that is affected on SDO, so the damage is minor and we can live with it [perhaps even correct for it].
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 17, 2013 at 11:45 am
This is why people like Piers have limited publications and citations.
Correction: not ‘limited’, but ‘none’. The real reason for this is not a word-wide conspiracy, but that Piers have not published anything, nor passed peer reviews. For good reason: he does not want to give away his ‘secret sauce’.
There exist a wide spectrum of theories when it comes to why the climate changes,and when and how it will change.
ONLY time(VERY SOON) will prove which are correct and which are not correct.
But, Dr Svalgaard!
How could “space” be a harsh environment?
There’s nothing there: no dust to speak of, no gasses, no radiation, no wind, no rain, no lightening strikes or power failures or earthquakes, actually: no pressures on anything at all not even any temperature! World’s (well, out-of-this world’s) most perfect pristine uncontaminated environment anywhere! Not even any people to walk around bumping things or screwing the lab environment up with all their messy and expensive and time-consuming maintenance shutdowns and calibration intervals.
8<)
Well, true, “sometimes” there’s a temperature, but that’s a short-lived thing. Evry orbit it is there, or it isn’t. Just take an average between 0 K and 400+ K and you’ll be fine.
(After all, doesn’t the CAGW theory hold that you can explain CO2’s effects by averaging the solar energy absorbed through the year over a spherical surface and divide by 4 to get a disk! )
/sarchasm – That gaping hole between a liberal and the real world.
Dr S, I am an engineer, with engineering level of understanding into physics. I have an interest in solar physics, mostly for better understanding its role in climate. Any suggestions on a website or text book for beginners?
Thanks
Brian
@racook
high energy SW (lowest wave length)
changes oxygen into ozone, water into peroxide, etc (TOA)
you try and do that in a lab?
hence a quiet sun means more of that type of energy coming down
Paradoxically, earth reacts by producing more ozone, peroxides, nitrous oxides, etc TOA<
hence we are globally cooling….
@salvatore
we are on a natural course through time and the universe, governed by natural reactions (TOA), which cause weather cycles,
as can be observed from simple measurements
like reading your thermometers…..looking at flooding,….following the planets…etc
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
You just made my point pass peer reviews.
Even Dr. Spencer(climatalogist), can’t get his work to be peer reviewed let alone pass it.
The reason being the the so called establishment , does not want to give equal playing time, or visibility to anyone that goes against their sacred AGW theory.
If you have an alternative explanation to the AGW theory do not expect it to pass peer review, let alone be peer reviewed.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 16, 2013 at 12:31 pm
Climate consist much more then just cycles, one can not extrapolate the climate based on cycles. Past history shows this clearly to be the case,if one goes back far enough..
Thresholds are out there that has caused the climate to change abruptly from time to time and in a dramatic fashion which will not allow the climate to fit into some neat cycle.Two recent examples are the 8200 year cold period and the Younga Dryas cold period.
Until one can explain the reasons for the causes of abrupt dramatic climate changes in the past (like in the above) any climate forecast for the future based on just climate cycles is not going to work out.
There are too many unknowns and the phasing of the items that control the climate need to be known as well as the duration of time of the phasing and the degree/direction of magnitude change of the items that are phasing that control the climate undertake.
To make matters worse does the phasing evenually lead to a climatic threshold being reached.
The phasing is toward a cooling trend starting around now and continuing at least to 2040, the question is what will be the character of the cooling trend. Will it be gradual or abrupt with spurts then a leveling off etc etc.
Henry, I have to differ with you on cycles per say ,it is just NOT that easy.
Your climatic cycle theory does not hold up if you review all the climate fluctuations,different climate fluctuations, degree of magntiude change and duration of time of all the climate fluctuations going back say to the last glacial maximum some 20,000 years ago.
Cycles can’t reconcile a period like the Younga Dryas, followed by extreme sudden warming , or the 8200 year ago cold period for example.
Thresholds are out there which can throw a non linear system such as the climate into impossible predictable results, even when the same forcings are applied, due to the state of the climate to begin with, the location of the forcings, duration of time and degree of magnitude of the forcings.
It can be generalized(like we know there is an extreme likelyhood of a temp. decline going forward) but no one is going to get the details as far as the extent or duration of time or the degree of magnitude of the climate change.
Maybe the climate shifts to another climate regime ,maybe it doesn’t.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Pz4L1ceCOH8/TSOWuP0abYI/AAAAAAAAKOE/xpUKefxmAfM/s400/Wilde+5a__544x336.jpg
this picture says what I have been saying…
during a cooling period it will become drier at the high lat’s
so history 1932-1939
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml
will repeat itself again 2021-2029
hope at least the 5 people here will get my message
RACookPE1978 says:
August 17, 2013 at 12:04 pm
How could “space” be a harsh environment?
Ultraviolet light from the sun is harsh. The temperature difference between being in the Sun and in the shade is harsh.
Brian says:
August 17, 2013 at 12:18 pm
Dr S, I am an engineer, with engineering level of understanding into physics. I have an interest in solar physics, mostly for better understanding its role in climate. Any suggestions on a website or text book for beginners?
There are many. One of the best for solar physics is http://www.amazon.com/Sun-Space-Astronomy-Astrophysics-Library/dp/3540769528 another good one is http://www.agu.org/journals/sw/swa/review/swa/opinion/article/?id=2012SW000823
Website: you can go to mine http://www.leif.org/research/
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 17, 2013 at 12:24 pm
The reason being the the so called establishment , does not want to give equal playing time, or visibility to anyone that goes against their sacred AGW theory.
Wrong, see for example the papers by Scafetta. The real criteria is whether the paper is written to a certain standard.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 17, 2013 at 12:28 pm
The phasing is toward a cooling trend starting around now and continuing at least to 2040
Groundless assertion.
leif says
groundless assertion
a) we are already cooling
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
b ) we will continue to cool: 47 weather stations say so
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
c) some simple cycle research will show that we will continue to cool until 2040
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
If you don’t believe me ask dr Norman Page, I think he came to the same date as me and my planets…
If a paper is geared toward support of the AGW theory it’s chances of being peer reviewed and acceptable are greatly increased.
The playing field is GROSSLY unfair.
This is why so few papers pass peer review that run counter to AGW theory, soon to be obsolete.
Henry , I say he will never come around to your thinking or mine for that matter.
Only clear hard data might chance his mind.
Henry I think the higher lat. willl be more moist at the start of a definitive cooling period. That may change later but not at the start in my opinion.
Recent upticks of N.H. winter snow coverage are hinting toward this point of view. More snow coverage while the temp. change has been at best neutral of late. no real cool down.
[SNIP – DON’T REPOST ENTIRE ARTICLES WITH DOZENS OF COMMENTS FROM OTHER WEBSITES – that’s a copyright violation, as well as a giant thread clutterer – Anthony]