Guest essay by David Archibald
Recently, a number of newspaper articles spoke of the potential of cycle 25 to be “Weakest Solar Cycle In Almost 200 Years”. “We’re in a new age of solar physics,” said David Hathaway of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.
Here is a collection of solar measurements that illustrate the current state of cycle 24, as well as provide insight into cycle 25.
Figure 1: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2013
This graph suggests that it may be a further six months or more to solar cycle maximum. Neutron count tends to follow the solar cycle with up to a one year lag so it may be another 18 months before we get to the minimum neutron count for Solar Cycle 24.
Figure 2: Oulu Neutron Count for Solar Cycles 20 to 24 aligned on month of minimum
In terms of neutron count, Solar Cycle 24 isn’t much weaker than the previous four cycles at a similar stage of development.
Figure 3: Ap Index 1932 – 2013
The Ap Planetary Magnetic Index has now spent the last couple of years below the levels of previous solar cycle minima, including an all-time record low for the data set.
Figure 4: Heliospheric Current Sheet Tilt Angle
Solar minimum is marked by the flattening of the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle. This tends to be quite sharp. Solar maxima are a lot broader with the current maximum the broadest of the instrument record. There is no indication yet from this measure that solar maximum is over.
Figure 5: Monthly F10.7 Flux 1948 – 2013
The F10.7 flux shows that Solar Cycle 24 is quite a weak cycle relative to the ones that have preceded it in the instrumental record.
Figure 6: F10.7 Flux of Solar Cycles 19 to 24 aligned on month of minimum
In terms of F10.7 flux, Solar Cycle 24 peaked two years ago. The relationship between F10.7 flux and sea level rise indicates that a flux of 100 is the break-over between climate warming and cooling. The flux level has been at about that value for the last three years.
Figure 7: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 – 2013
The 1970s cooling period had a weak and flat interplanetary magnetic field over Solar Cycle 20. Solar Cycle 24 could produce a similar result with a slightly lower average value over the cycle.
Figure 8: Solar Cycle 24 sunspot count relative to the Dalton Minimum
All things considered, the current solar cycle is tracking Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum, fairly closely.
Figure 9: Predicting the year of maximum of Solar Cycle 25
Just over two years ago, Richard Altrock of the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak published the latest version of his green corona emissions diagram.
He stated at the time that the progression of the Solar Cycle 24 was 40% slower than the average of the previous two cycles. That would make it 15.5 years long. Given that the cycle started in December 2008 and solar maximum is in 2013, that makes the Solar Cycle 24 fall time 11.5 years.
Figure 9 shows the strong relationship between fall time and the time from maximum to maximum. Based on that relationship, the Solar Cycle 24 fall time derives a period of 17 years from the Solar Cycle 24 maximum to the Solar Cycle 25 maximum – putting it in 2030.
Carla says:
July 30, 2013 at 5:55 pm
Not so fast Dr. S.
It seems that a true believer cannot be shaken from her tree.
Around here we might call it ‘rocking the boat.’
Carla says:
July 30, 2013 at 6:23 pm
Around here we might call it ‘rocking the boat.’
Most of the time you just get wet.
@Carla
And space aliens may be causing waves that are interfering and causing all the effects as well or perhaps there is a big space whale and he just flapped his tail and sent the space wave.
You do realize how desperate this all looks?
As Leif says you are a true nutcase believer you will believe anything to make your story work.
Carla says:
July 30, 2013 at 6:00 pm
Are the orbits of the Jovian planets constant in terms of time? Could their orbits change (slow down, elongate) if the sun’s activity cycle slows down? I think they might, now your theory might have a problem..
Just thinking out loud..
Just the messenger don’t shoot me..
The changes in the planets orbits are built in to their observations, they are well known about, in fact Neptune was predicted by Urbain Le Verrier before it was directly observed by using these observed changes. There is actually nothing unusual or out of the ordinary with what I’m doing, orbital calculations are made by astronomers every day.
Again, it is clear “experts” don’t know what is going on. Why is it so hard for “experts” to say “I don’t know?”.
LdB says:
July 31, 2013 at 12:38 am
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Heavens sake, not a whale tail, but a coiling SNAKE. Taa Daa Ya think that Orion is making magneto waves, harmonic subdivisions, and resonance. Yep How much more different than a spiral arm in our own galaxy. Could there be a periodicity in that. Yep I think so……..
Astronomers find magnetic Slinky in Orion
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2006/01/12_helical.shtml
By Robert Sanders, Media Relations | 12 January 2006
BERKELEY – Astronomers announced today (Thursday, Jan. 12) what may be the first discovery of a helical magnetic field in interstellar space, coiled like a snake around a gas cloud in the constellation of Orion.
“You can think of this structure as a giant, magnetic Slinky wrapped around a long, finger-like interstellar cloud,” said Timothy Robishaw, a graduate student in astronomy at the University of California, Berkeley. “The magnetic field lines are like stretched rubber bands; the tension squeezes the cloud into its filamentary shape.”
Astronomers have long hoped to find specific cases in which magnetic forces directly influence the shape of interstellar clouds, but according to Robishaw, “telescopes just haven’t been up to the task … until now.”
The findings provide the first evidence of the magnetic field structure around a filamentary-shaped interstellar cloud known as the Orion Molecular Cloud…
Sparks says:
July 31, 2013 at 12:47 pm
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How do these numbers work with your numbers.
“”Note also that the sunspot N-S asymmetry also depicts a similar
80..90-year oscillation as the rotation asymmetry”””
Consistent long-term variation in the hemispheric asymmetry
of solar rotation
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/aa20693-12.pdf
L. Zhang1;2, K. Mursula1, and I. Usoskin3
1 Department of Physics, University of Oulu, 90914 Oulu, Finland
e-mail: liyun.zhang@oulu.fi
2 Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100012 Beijing, PR China
3 Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, 99600 Tähtelä, Finland
Received 5 November 2012 / Accepted 26 February 2013
…4. Discussion
Figure 6 shows the difference between the total area of sunspot
groups with an area larger than 2000 uHem in the northern and
southern hemispheres, i.e., the N-S asymmetry of large sunspot
groups. One can see that the southern hemisphere was significantly
more active in large sunspots than the northern hemisphere
around 1900. Then the asymmetry reversed, with the
north being dominant from the 1920s until the 1960s. (The
asymmetry is fluctuating considerably from 1940 to 1960).
Thereafter, the asymmetry reversed again and reached its minimum
around 1980. Accordingly, the N-S asymmetry of large
sunspots (Fig. 6) shows a clear anti-correlation with the N-S
asymmetry of solar surface rotation (see, e.g., Figs. 2 or 5).
Note also that the sunspot N-S asymmetry also depicts a similar
80..90-year oscillation as the rotation asymmetry…
And Sparks.. included in the group for differential rotation are Saturn and Jupiter.
How in tune are you with their differential rotation?
Just thinking out loud, no need to answer that.
Wouldn’t that be a hoot if the IBEX ribbon too morphed at 80..90 years..
If one is interested in the different types of magnetic fields and topography of our galaxy and other galaxies, try this catalog.
Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems, Springer, Berlin 2013, Vol. 5, Chapter 13
– corrected and updated version –
Magnetic Fields in Galaxies
Rainer Beck & Richard Wielebinski
Max-Planck-Institut für Radioastronomie, Bonn, Germany
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1302/1302.5663.pdf
I have only just .. browsed this doing a little search on information on larger scale differential rotation it is described 4 times.. maybe the next search of this article should be on sign as in reversals.. oh my really good stuff so far.. looking like a must read.
Another mandatory read I would think for Dr. S…
Or maybe he already has read it..
LdB says:
July 31, 2013 at 12:38 am
—
Like Neil Young says, “This Note’s for You.”
Now there might be some “electromagnetic waves,” coming from the coiling snake……..
looky see ah LdB
2.2 Synchrotron emission
Charged particles (mostly electrons) moving at relativistic speeds (cosmic rays) around magnetic fields
lines on spiral trajectories generate electromagnetic waves. Cosmic rays in interstellar magnetic fields
are the origin of the diffuse radio emission from the Milky Way (Fermi 1949; Kiepenheuer 1950). A
single cosmic-ray electron of energy E (in GeV) in a magnetic field with a component perpendicular to
the line of sight of strength B┴ (in μG) emits a smooth spectrum with a maximum at the frequency:
Carla says:
August 1, 2013 at 5:07 pm
How do these numbers work with your numbers.
“”Note also that the sunspot N-S asymmetry also depicts a similar
80..90-year oscillation as the rotation asymmetry”””
Consistent long-term variation in the hemispheric asymmetry
of solar rotation
http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/aa20693-12.pdf
The rotation rates of sunspots are on a different scale from the orbital calculations Ive been plotting, and I haven’t used any factors from the suns rotation, that would be counter intuitive.
The orange line in this graph is N=N1+N2 where N is the resonance from the observations of three orbiting planetary body’s.
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/planet-solar-match-1.jpg
Here is a quick example to show you the similarities between the planets orbits and solar activity. with a mock up of solar cycle 24 and 25 in the example so you can see it better.
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/planet-solar-match-2.jpg
And here.
http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/planet-solar-match-3.jpg
Carla says:
August 1, 2013 at 5:28 pm
“included in the group for differential rotation are Saturn and Jupiter.
How in tune are you with their differential rotation?”
I don’t know what you mean by this??, I may just need some sleep… 🙂