Oh, what a difference a year makes in Greenland melting

Steven Mosher says:
July 25, 2013 at 3:45 pm
‘The oceans play a role in temperatures in the US and arctic and explain the recent demise and suggest the ice will recover in the not too distant future.”
jeez I dont know which is worse, CAGW guys talking about death spiral or this?
At least the death spiral guys put some numbers on their guess.
>>>>>>>
I don’t know which is worse, “fence-straddlers”, or “intellectual-wannabes”.

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
And another global warming “Run Around With Hair On Fire” scare-mongering moment falls flat. See especially the link to the 150-year cycle of Greenland’s ice melts.

Meanwhile Live Science is telling it’s readers “North Pole Now a Lake”
http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html
…Of course they are showing a drifting buoy hundreds of miles away from the North Pole!
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html

Steven Mosher and richard telford,
Here is a death spiral coupled with Arctic amplification. Did it get back? See 1979 extent.

Abstract
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism
The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C…..
dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C4045:TETWIT%3E2.0.CO;2
Abstract
The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic
During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions …..
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.011

The amplification failed.

Abstract
Igor V. Polyakov et. al.
Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming
…..over the 125-year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern-hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern-hemispheric air-temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi-decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long-term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change, then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming.
DOI: 10.1029/2001GL011111

Brrrrrr. It’s been a record cold summer in the “Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel, plotted with daily climate values calculated from the period 1958-2002.”
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Global Warming is causing the ice to increase, unless it is unchanged then its Global Warming pausing, and if its reducing and then Global Warming is accelerating at an unprecdented rate.

LOL – Jon… from your posts I’m not exactly sure where you stand, but “talking” to the people who live in an area is about as fruitful as giving a mass-murderer a stern warning.
Where I live we had a pretty bad flood this year, the last time the combination of heavy rain and spring melting from the mountains was this high was in the late 20s and early 30s. And yet, almost everyone here believes it was “unprecedented”, “worst ever”, etc. People who lived in New Orleans no doubt believe Katrina was the worst hurricane ever. Apparently those in the path of Sandy somehow think nothing like that has ever happened either.
That’s the thing about the known cycles… the strongest cyclical signal approximately matches a human lifetime, and yet the signal is recorded back several centuries. It gets warmer, it gets cooler, but from the perspective of any individual human it’s all outside of their personal memory.
From what I can see, alarmists in both directions (Warming, Ice Age) take advantage of this and prey on the gullible. I don’t want to be one of the gullible. I don’t believe there’s any reason for alarmist rhetoric in either direction, and I think people who build on a flood plain are either stupid (if they knew they were on a flood plain), or criminally liable (if they were developers that developed on a flood plain).
Climate changes – I won’t panic or even worry unless there is shown to be an unusual or harmful change. Neither has been shown in any sort of credible way.
Arctic ice extent, as I always say whether it’s high or low, is a meaningless metric, although often interesting to watch.

From the OP: “Well, a year later, we have an interesting opposite scenario with a deep arctic low bringing snow to the arctic and Greenland in late July.”
Snow? That’s even worse!!! All the extra weight will cause Greenland to sink, raisingsealevelsowe’reallDOOOOMEDDOOOMEDItellyou!!! 🙂

Anthony you have to see that one!!!
The day the North Pole turned into a Lake or how the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation ignoramus Andy Macdonald is propaganding the usual seasonal surface melt and ponds over the sea ice as if the North Pole was open water…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourcommunity/2013/07/north-pole-turned-into-lake-from-global-warming-3.html

Forecast for North Pole – wet, wet, wet.
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/north-pole-melts-forms-lake-at-top-of-the-world
Time to get out those old submarine snaps again, methinks:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
“the Skate found open water both in the summer and following winter..wind and tides causes open water as the ice breaks up.. into large polynyas (areas of open water)..We had sonar equipment that would find these open or thin areas to come up through..We came up through a very large opening in 1958 that was 1/2 mile long and 200 yards wide. The wind came up and closed the opening within 2 hours”
Yep, proof that the North Pole has been ice free in the recent past

Joe says:
July 25, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Joe, you are not learning fast enough. Even if the ice at pole stretched al the way to NYC they would still find a way of saying it will disappear next year. You are dealing with conmen and politicians. Deceit and lies are their tools of the trade.

Stephen Richards says:
July 26, 2013 at 1:21 am
Joe, you are not learning fast enough. Even if the ice at pole stretched al the way to NYC they would still find a way of saying it will disappear next year.
——————————————————————————————————–
True enough, Stephen, but a “proper” recovery of the Arctic would be much harder for them to swing in the popular consciousness.
Currently they can tell people across the world that their personal experience of no warming is a local effect and is made up for in (often unspecified) orther parts of the globe. Because the vast majority of people aren’t that interested in actually looking up the figures they accept that, even if everyone elsewhere was being told exactly the same thing at the same time.
But the Arctic has been a poster child for AGW since the beginning, and has been offered consistently as “look at the ice disappearing, this is what AGW does”. It’s about the only AGW prediction I can think of which hasn’t changed significantly since the start. There’s also only one North Pole, so all those people who aren’t experiencing warming in their area see the same ice cap.
If they have to start inventing reasons that the ice is recovering “while warming continues” an awful lot of people will start getting suspicious. It’d be a bit like the Pope announcing that “Jesus never really lived, but that doesn’t matter because….”. Some people would always accept the “because” but an awful lot wouldn’t!
Like I say, wishful thinking but I, for one, wouldn’t mind if Santa was snowed in over the next few years!