Oh, what a difference a year makes in Greenland melting

ARCTIC SUMMER SNOWSTORM

By Joseph D’Aleo CCM

Remember a year ago when few days of July ‘warmth’ with strong blocking over Greenland had the media abuzz over some melting?

Last July a brief spell of temperatures in the mid 30s had caused some surface slush formation on top of the 1 to 1.5 mile thick Greenland ice. The NASA sensors merely color-coded the phase of the water – ice (white), mixed water and ice (rose) and none (land grey). Rose meant some surface liquid. For Greenland, business as usual, because 150 years ago, there were no satellites to record the event.

It quickly refroze in a few days even before the flurry of news stories hyping it stopped.

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The July 2012 melt event was a couple of short blips above freezing.

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You can see the ice at the summit was very much still in evidence.

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Well, a year later, we have an interesting opposite scenario with a deep arctic low bringing snow to the arctic and Greenland in late July.

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What about the arctic ice?

According to the DMI plot it is running higher than 2012 and 2007. WE still have more than a month to go and storms and winds can compact the ice and push it out of the arctic so no promises can be made.  The oceans play a role in temperatures in the US and arctic and explain the recent demise and suggest the ice will recover in the not too distant future.

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Arctic Sea ice extent 30% or greater (DMI)

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Related:

Remember that ‘unprecedented’ Greenland ice sheet surface melt that was allegedly caused by global warming? Never mind

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Joe

I know this is only weather, but wouldn’t a recovery in Arctic ice over the next few years be nice for public perceptions right now?
Wishful thinking, but what the hey 😀

Jon

Do you ever talk to the people who live in the Arctic? Guess what … it’s getting friggin warmer … ever since the mid 90’s! The cause … who knows!

Jon

‘The people who live in the Arctic’? There are four million of them, according to http://www.athropolis.com/arctic-facts/fact-arctic-pop.htm. Where do you suggest we start?

Do you think the MSM will fall over themselves reporting this? No, me neither.

Jimbo

The late July snow will be blamed on man-made climate change.

albertalad

Jon,
I live at 56.7266° N, 111.3797° W and this is the coldest summer in a long while. In fact my entire province is suffering from a cold a wet summer – but what would you know? I live up here, you don’t!

cynical_scientist

Having less ice up there in summer seems a good thing to me. Has anyone pointed out any harmful effects?What advatnages are there to having it colder and more frozen up there in summer. Why pull harder on the trigger (ice lingering from one season to the next) that will one day put us into the next ice age.

rtj1211

I wonder how many MSM titles will run this story with ‘freak July snowfall covers over half of Greenland’ as the headline.
None??
You don’t say.
You’ll tell me next that MSM journalists are interested in truth, educating the public and are open to both points of view when evaluating their judgements.
I think most here would agree that they are now paid whores, pandering to readers’ prejudices, writing sensationalist rubbish to get web hits for advertisers and that people who still read the MSM for any other reason than the defensive one of needing to know what the majority are reading and, hence, thinking are living in a fools’ paradise.

As Jon says, there are plenty of people in the Arctic to talk to. It seems some of them believe the warming is cyclical – like these weather station operators – the real experts http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/they-believe-it-is-cyclical/

Louis

Al Gore was probably speaking in the Greenland area…

blackadderthe4th

AGU report on Greenland melt.

Last year it was “more than 90 percent of the ice-sheet surface melted.” Perhaps the MSM can spin this year with “only about 50% of the ice sheet covered!”

Follow the Money

The PR folks aren’t pushing stories of mountain glaciers in general “retreating” in the last few years…so I am assuming the info out there shows them growing now…
It might be fruitful to take a new look at that.

Latitude

Jon says:
July 25, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Do you ever talk to the people who live in the Arctic? Guess what … it’s getting friggin warmer
=========
July 15, 2013
The temperature in Tuk is -1C and there’s a strong Northeasterly wind blowing in the morning. Locals tell us it should be 15-20C at this time of year. “The bugs should be bouncing off your head” explained Eilleen who came down to the beach to visit with us.
http://mainstreamlastfirst.com/our-arrival-in-tuktoyaktuk-to-our-departure-is-less-than-24-hours/

Luther Wu

Jimbo says:
July 25, 2013 at 2:42 pm
The late July snow will be blamed on man-made climate change.
________________________
Of course. You know- air warmed by global warming holds more moisture, so it snows more.
Suppose Gav’ll let me in over at “Real” Climate, now?
/ <– sarc tag

The Arctic Ice decline is a result of natural forces it has nothing to do with CO2 and global warming. Once the cold PDO/AMO become more established the Arctic Ice will rebound.
What is being forgotton is the near record level of Antarctic Sea Ice. If CO2 were responsible for the Arctic Sea Ice deficit, how does one reconcile the Antarctica Sea Ice Surplus.
Answer is you can’t because CO2 has nothing to do with it.
CO2 absorbs infrared radiation which is only able to penetrate the ocean to a depth of 1 millimeter, which means it has nothing to do with the heating up the oceans,and hence Sea Ice. More BS from the AGW crowd.,

RE: Latitude says:
July 25, 2013 at 3:18 pm
Interesting link. Temperatures nearly twenty degrees below normal, and the fellow sees evidence of warming in the beavers “coming north.” The only problem is, beavers are also coming south to the suburbs of Boston, where they haven’t been seen in nearly 400 years. Their furs were once very valuable, and it is likely they are not coming north due to Global Warming, or coming south due to Global Cooling, but rather repopulating their former range.
I suppose it is like the lyrics from the Simon and Garfunkel song “The Boxer.” “But a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”

Jimbo

Luther Wu,
Thanks. And we also know that global warming was supposed to mean less snow too. 🙂 They want to have cake and eat. By the way, Antarctica got some extreme snowfall between 2009 and 2011 caused by…………..global warming. 🙂

By the way, Camera One at the pole shows a vast stretch of snow, while camera two shows a neat and large melt water pool, with pressure ridges in the distance. You can pick the view to support your view.
Or you can just enjoy the view: http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/07/24/north-pole-ice-melt-watching-the-summer-thaw/

Latitude

Caleb, they are a hoot….well, all of them are actually
Who in there right mind would think 50, even a 100 years ago……was normal…

It will he greater. Reason: there is a slight 5 to 6 year undulation where 2007 . . . . .2012
I do not trust the data anyway.

‘The oceans play a role in temperatures in the US and arctic and explain the recent demise and suggest the ice will recover in the not too distant future.”
jeez I dont know which is worse, CAGW guys talking about death spiral or this?
At least the death spiral guys put some numbers on their guess.

richard telford

“You can see the ice at the summit was very much still in evidence.”
Well what would you expect? 3km of ice to melt?
“suggest the ice will recover in the not too distant future.”
this is wishful thinking not a prediction.

Jon

If the aim is to stop global climate change then how the hell are we going to get.the Earth out of the ice ages we have had the last 2-3 million years? How do we stop the ice age we have been slipping into again since Holocene optimum, 5-6000 years ago?
It’s much easier to fight the glaciers now than to wait until they again cover most of Scandinavia?

Arctic Sea ice extent 30% or greater (DMI)

I thought that NSIDC was using 15% as the threshold for Ice versus Ice-free. Has this been changed also?
If so, that would be quite a favorable adjustment for the alarmists. Can anyone clarify?

chris y

I think this was the BEST expert statement from last year’s meltageddon-
“It is scary to note the limitation in our understanding of the impact of current 0.8 per cent mean global temperature increase with the sudden disappearance of the Greenland’s ice sheet in four days in July this year-“
Farrukh Khan, Pakistan UN Climate negotiator, 11/29/12, The Express Tribune

geran

Steven Mosher says:
July 25, 2013 at 3:45 pm
‘The oceans play a role in temperatures in the US and arctic and explain the recent demise and suggest the ice will recover in the not too distant future.”
jeez I dont know which is worse, CAGW guys talking about death spiral or this?
At least the death spiral guys put some numbers on their guess.
>>>>>>>
I don’t know which is worse, “fence-straddlers”, or “intellectual-wannabes”.

BLACK PEARL

It was all supposed to have melted completely by this summer ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
And another global warming “Run Around With Hair On Fire” scare-mongering moment falls flat. See especially the link to the 150-year cycle of Greenland’s ice melts.

James Strom

BLACK PEARL says:
July 25, 2013 at 4:09 pm
It was all supposed to have melted completely by this summer ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7139797.stm
******
Kudos, Mr. Memory!

cotwome

Meanwhile Live Science is telling it’s readers “North Pole Now a Lake”
http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html
…Of course they are showing a drifting buoy hundreds of miles away from the North Pole!
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/index.html

William Astley

In reply to:
blackadderthe4th says:
July 25, 2013 at 2:52 pm
AGU report on Greenland melt.
William:
You can rejoice.
The warming of the last 70 years is anomalously and rapidly reversing. The planet will significantly unequivocally cool. If you are interested I can explain in detail the physics and mechanisms to support that assertion. What will happen next is truly remarkable.
Your rejoicing is twofold. There is a missing mechanism that causes the CO2 warming mechanism to saturate in higher regions of the troposphere. The missing mechanism is the reason why there is no tropical tropospheric hot spot. The explanation as to why there is no tropospheric hot explains why the CO2 mechanism saturates. There is absolutely no problem with warming due to the increase in atmospheric CO2. Future increases in CO2 will have almost no effect on planetary temperature, regardless of the planet`s sensitivity to forcing changes in general which is negative not positive.
Comment:
There are piles, sets of anomalous observations in each field. As each specialists concern is very, very, narrow they have no knowledge of the anomalies outside of their specialty. The anomalies indicate the theory is incorrect and help to solve how to correct the theory. The correct solution makes all of the anomalies disappear as there is a physical explanation for what has happened and will happen. If the base model, in a specialty, is fundamentally incorrect, the people in the field work irrationally trying to adapt and manipulate their model to explain away the anomalies.
This adapting and manipulating of incorrect models becomes ingrained, systematical, within each specialty. The longer it goes on the more difficult it becomes for new people entering a mature specialty to even suggest that the base theory is absolutely incorrect.
Unfortunately the climate change problem is cooling. I have no solution to global cooling, however, that will be an interesting discussion.

Jimbo

Steven Mosher and richard telford,
Here is a death spiral coupled with Arctic amplification. Did it get back? See 1979 extent.

Abstract
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism
The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C…..
dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C4045:TETWIT%3E2.0.CO;2
Abstract
The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic
During the 1920s and 1930s, there was a dramatic warming of the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer-than-normal sea temperatures, reduced sea ice conditions and enhanced Atlantic inflow in northern regions …..
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.011

The amplification failed.

Abstract
Igor V. Polyakov et. al.
Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming
…..over the 125-year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern-hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern-hemispheric air-temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi-decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long-term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change, then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming.
DOI: 10.1029/2001GL011111

Brrrrrr. It’s been a record cold summer in the “Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel, plotted with daily climate values calculated from the period 1958-2002.”
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Angela

What do we make of this analysis of the motivation behind the promotion of AGW?
http://memoryholeblog.com/2013/07/12/the-forces-behind-carbon-centric-environmentalism/

Scott

Global Warming is causing the ice to increase, unless it is unchanged then its Global Warming pausing, and if its reducing and then Global Warming is accelerating at an unprecdented rate.

Bill Illis

Temps at Eureka Canada at 80N over the last 90 days. This high-quality research station is staffed by several climate scientists so the readings should be good. About 1.0C below normal this summer. Still had snow on the ground on July 1.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn71917_90.gif

Richard M

Mosher, you can look up the AMO values online. I predict the sea ice in the Arctic will follow the AMO value with a reasonable lag (~3-5 years). Naturally, there will be year-year variation based on winds.

Bill Illis

Arctic sea ice melt rates.
In the first five months of 2013, there was mostly average melt rates in the Arctic sea ice. (Last year there had already been 2 rapid melting events in the first 5 months of the year while 2013 had none). The winter extent was about 600,000 km^2 (5.0%) below normal, so this still resulted in below average sea ice in the first 5 months of the year (still 5.0% below normal but what’s a 5.0% anyway).
In June and early July, however, the melt rate jumped to close to double normal amounts. Melt rates have now gone back to normal or even slightly less than normal.
There is still 50 days until the typical sea ice minimum occurs on September 12th.
http://s2.postimg.org/uz3h5kmzd/NH_SIE_Daily_Change_July24_2013.png

CodeTech

LOL – Jon… from your posts I’m not exactly sure where you stand, but “talking” to the people who live in an area is about as fruitful as giving a mass-murderer a stern warning.
Where I live we had a pretty bad flood this year, the last time the combination of heavy rain and spring melting from the mountains was this high was in the late 20s and early 30s. And yet, almost everyone here believes it was “unprecedented”, “worst ever”, etc. People who lived in New Orleans no doubt believe Katrina was the worst hurricane ever. Apparently those in the path of Sandy somehow think nothing like that has ever happened either.
That’s the thing about the known cycles… the strongest cyclical signal approximately matches a human lifetime, and yet the signal is recorded back several centuries. It gets warmer, it gets cooler, but from the perspective of any individual human it’s all outside of their personal memory.
From what I can see, alarmists in both directions (Warming, Ice Age) take advantage of this and prey on the gullible. I don’t want to be one of the gullible. I don’t believe there’s any reason for alarmist rhetoric in either direction, and I think people who build on a flood plain are either stupid (if they knew they were on a flood plain), or criminally liable (if they were developers that developed on a flood plain).
Climate changes – I won’t panic or even worry unless there is shown to be an unusual or harmful change. Neither has been shown in any sort of credible way.
Arctic ice extent, as I always say whether it’s high or low, is a meaningless metric, although often interesting to watch.

JimF

My NOAA “Weather Story” (Ironwood, MI) today reads: “…Low pressure will be influencing our weather through the upcoming weekend, with unsettled and Fall-like weather ahead….” We had one warm spell, and one really lovely spell, in what has been more like Eternal Spring in the Northe or else, the Summer That Never Came. That CO2 really works some incredible tricks.
On another note, Steven Mosher says:
July 25, 2013 at 3:45 pm
and
richard telford says:
July 25, 2013 at 3:50 pm
are two rude idiots. Do you see what I did there, children? I actually spent one-tenth of a second copying the comment header that I wanted to illuminate or reply to. If I actually wanted to reply to one of your asinine comments, I would have copied and pasted it, with quotes, so that others reading my post could quickly understand what I was talking about, and go find the original comment if the wanted to do so. But I doubt you two pricks can comprehend that.

Gary Hladik

From the OP: “Well, a year later, we have an interesting opposite scenario with a deep arctic low bringing snow to the arctic and Greenland in late July.”
Snow? That’s even worse!!! All the extra weight will cause Greenland to sink, raisingsealevelsowe’reallDOOOOMEDDOOOMEDItellyou!!! 🙂

Gary Hladik

richard telford says (July 25, 2013 at 3:50 pm): “Well what would you expect? 3km of ice to melt?”
Most readers here wouldn’t, but as chris y reports (July 25, 2013 at 4:04 pm), at least one person did:
“It is scary to note the limitation in our understanding of the impact of current 0.8 per cent mean global temperature increase with the sudden disappearance of the Greenland’s ice sheet in four days in July this year”–Farrukh Khan, Pakistan UN Climate negotiator, 11/29/12, The Express Tribune
BTW, here’s a link. Note the usual blah blah about disappearing islands, cyclones, drought, flood, famine, dogs & cats living together, etc. 🙂

TomRude

Anthony you have to see that one!!!
The day the North Pole turned into a Lake or how the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation ignoramus Andy Macdonald is propaganding the usual seasonal surface melt and ponds over the sea ice as if the North Pole was open water…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourcommunity/2013/07/north-pole-turned-into-lake-from-global-warming-3.html

Jeff L

Possibly related – 550 Dm thicknesses over N. Minnesota shown in latest NAM :
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=pres&inv=0&t=24
Brrrrrr …… that’s cold for summer !

Village Idiot

Forecast for North Pole – wet, wet, wet.
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/north-pole-melts-forms-lake-at-top-of-the-world
Time to get out those old submarine snaps again, methinks:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/
“the Skate found open water both in the summer and following winter..wind and tides causes open water as the ice breaks up.. into large polynyas (areas of open water)..We had sonar equipment that would find these open or thin areas to come up through..We came up through a very large opening in 1958 that was 1/2 mile long and 200 yards wide. The wind came up and closed the opening within 2 hours”
Yep, proof that the North Pole has been ice free in the recent past

Cho_cacao

Mmmm..
About the artcic sea ice graph, why show only the one that shows this year’s extent to be the farthest from the previous records? Other indicators (see the sea ice page) indicate that it is quite close to 2007 and 2012.
Also, I remember, Mr D’Aleo, that you predicted a “quick recovery” a few years ago, just before the arctic sea ice broke records again. Is there any sign of substantiating evidences for this?

Stephen Richards

Joe says:
July 25, 2013 at 2:31 pm
Joe, you are not learning fast enough. Even if the ice at pole stretched al the way to NYC they would still find a way of saying it will disappear next year. You are dealing with conmen and politicians. Deceit and lies are their tools of the trade.

fred houpt

Joe

Stephen Richards says:
July 26, 2013 at 1:21 am
Joe, you are not learning fast enough. Even if the ice at pole stretched al the way to NYC they would still find a way of saying it will disappear next year.
——————————————————————————————————–
True enough, Stephen, but a “proper” recovery of the Arctic would be much harder for them to swing in the popular consciousness.
Currently they can tell people across the world that their personal experience of no warming is a local effect and is made up for in (often unspecified) orther parts of the globe. Because the vast majority of people aren’t that interested in actually looking up the figures they accept that, even if everyone elsewhere was being told exactly the same thing at the same time.
But the Arctic has been a poster child for AGW since the beginning, and has been offered consistently as “look at the ice disappearing, this is what AGW does”. It’s about the only AGW prediction I can think of which hasn’t changed significantly since the start. There’s also only one North Pole, so all those people who aren’t experiencing warming in their area see the same ice cap.
If they have to start inventing reasons that the ice is recovering “while warming continues” an awful lot of people will start getting suspicious. It’d be a bit like the Pope announcing that “Jesus never really lived, but that doesn’t matter because….”. Some people would always accept the “because” but an awful lot wouldn’t!
Like I say, wishful thinking but I, for one, wouldn’t mind if Santa was snowed in over the next few years!

fred houpt

Also this has hit the internet and world news. Fake has been uncovered. Snow, in that country? Not ever likely. http://rp2.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/07/25/13/snow-philippines-fake-says-expert