From Dr. Benny Peiser and the GWPF
We Really Don’t Understand Our Climate

Something is happening to our sun. If history is anything to go by, the sun’s change of mood could affect us all by cooling the earth and throwing our climate change calculations into disarray. It might even be the case that the earth’s response to low solar activity will overturn many of our assumptions about man’s influence on climate change. Cold not warmth might be our future. We do not know. We must keep watching the sun. –David Whitehouse, Public Service Europe, 24 July 2013
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Global warming has been on “pause” for 15 years but will speed up again and is still a real threat, Met Office scientists have warned. In a set of three new reports, the Met Office claims that global warming has been disguised in recent years by the oceans, which have absorbed greater amounts of heat and prevented us from noticing the difference at surface level. Other factors including a number of volcanic eruptions since 2000 and changes in the Sun’s activity, could also have masked the effect of greenhouse gases by providing a slight cooling effect, they said. –Nick Collins, The Daily Telegraph, 22 July 2013
In its conclusions the Met Office states that the pause has not falsified the climate models. If the pause is, as they define it and limit it, from 2001 onwards, then this is true. But if the pause is 16-years, as the temperature data actually show, then the models, already looking unimpressive, are in jeopardy. We are at the waiting stage. Better and more reliable OHC data are desperately needed. Even if global temperatures were to rise again the climate models have shown themselves inadequate. If the pause continues, however, then the crisis of climate science will become more serious. –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 24 July 2013
The scientists say, pauses in warming were always to be expected. This is new – at least to me. I’ve never heard leading researchers mention the possibility before. I asked why this had not come up in earlier presentations. No one really had an answer, except to say that this “message” about pauses had not been communicated widely. But what about another possibility – that the calculations are wrong? What if the climate models – which are the very basis for all discussions of what to do about global warming – exaggerate the sensitivity of the climate to rising carbon dioxide? –David Shukman, BBC News, 22 July 2013
Scientists are still struggling to explain the slower-than-predicted global warming over the past decade. There are innumerable variables in the climate system that could be responsible for the warming slowdown. These scientists have identified some of the likeliest culprits, but one professor admitted that they “don’t fully understand the relative importance of these different factors.” The recent warming plateau is exposing our limited understanding of climate, and it’s effectively killing the rationale for green policies that limit growth and, at the most basic level, try to force people to do things they would rather not do. — Walter Russell Mead, Via Meadia, 23 July 2013
The Science Media Centre has released a statement on the failure of global temperatures to rise in line with the models. It’s spin of course, although perhaps not quite as blatant as we are used to from them. Lots of “our understanding is getting better” and not a lot of “nobody has a clue what’s going on”. There’s a complete misrepresentation of science’s level of understanding of the reasons why this is happening. As I said in Parliament, the inability of climate scientists to admit their ignorance is one of the reasons nobody trusts them. The Science Media Centre are just helping that process along in the wrong direction. –Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, 22 July 2013
First, I asked Stephen Belcher, the head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, whether the recent extended winter was related to global warming. Shaking his famous “ghost stick”, and fingering his trademark necklace of sharks’ teeth and mammoth bones, the loin-clothed Belcher blew smoke into a conch, and replied, “Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.” –Sean Thomas, The Daily Telegraph, 19 June 2013
The Sunday Politics interview with Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey on July 14 provoked widespread reaction in the twittersphere and elsewhere, which was only to be expected given the interview was about the latest developments in global warming and the implications for government policy. Many of the criticisms of the Davey interview seem to misunderstand the purpose of a Sunday Politics interview. –Andrew Neil, BBC News, 22 July 2013
Dan in California says:
July 24, 2013 at 1:44 pm
taobabe says: July 24, 2013 at 11:08 am
Quick question. Your article states that the sun is inactive at this time, but from what I’ve been able to gather from scientific news sources, the sun has been very active within the last couple of weeks. [snip] According to these sites, we just had some major Coronal Mass Ejections just in July alone, and it doesn’t show any signs of calming down. Can you please explain this discrepancy? Thanks.
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If you are at least somewhat nerdy, I recommend a readable and educational book called: “The Sun Kings” by Stuart Clark. It’s an early history of solar astronomy and how it affects this planet.
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Thanks Dan. I hope it’s in ebook format as I am traveling later on this month and hope to get some reading in by then. Much appreciate the info.
Salvatore Del Prete
lf the Polar jet splits then the cooling could be sudden.
Because if the Polar jet splits then you are likely to get large blocking highs sitting in the middle.
So during the winter you are likely to get large pools of cold air sitting in the middle of these split jets. Now because you have got the jet flowing to the north and the south of these pools of cold air. Then its very likely there will be active weather fronts moving into this cold air both from the north and the south. What you are likely to get with this set up is not only cold but heavy snowfall as well. You will not want this sort Polar jet pattern setting in for to many years.
taobabe says:
July 24, 2013 at 11:08 am
Quick question.
Hi…some days there are people who seem to ask innocent questions that are only here to hijack a thread so that may explain a little of the harshness you received.
Just above the “Responses to Newsbites:” there is a small line that says “This entry was posted in…” and you will see just to the right the word Solar and further over you will see Solar Cycle 24. If you want to read about the sun and its influences on climate click on either one and there will be enough information to make your head hurt. Have fun!
Brad says (July 24, 2013 at 11:50 am): “Good post, but I could have limited without the witch doctor section. Seems a bit petty and out of place.”
Q: What’s the difference between the Met Office and a witch doctor?
A: The witch doctor’s weather forecasts are occasionally correct. 🙂
taobabe:
A great place to learn some things also is a website called www “dot” spaceweather “dot” com .
It has a number of links to other sites, and has many places one is able to study and learn at one’s own pace. By all means, come to this website, as well as JoAnne Nova’s website ( www. joannenova “dot” com “dot” au ). Oftimes, I find the comments more enlightening than the actual article, but it is all good.
I would also apologise for those who (probably) unintentionally mistook your demeanor. Overall, this and many other ‘denier’ (yes, I am a denier) websites are very cordial places, except for the occassional trolls (our current crop includes ‘blackadderthe4th’ and ‘jai mitchell’. I think that if you ask an honest question, you will be bombarded with honest answers. We seek to educate, not indoctrinate. Most of us have found that thinking individuals are able to discern what is true, and what is dogma.
If you need a smile today, then google ‘Minnesotans for Global Warming’ (a.k.a. M4GW) and find their video “I’m A Denier”. If it does not put a big smile on your face, then down a couple of fifths, and watch it once the effect has taken place.
Best Regards,
Mark H.
taobabe says, July 24, 2013 at 2:22 pm
“The Sun, The Earth, and Near Earth Space”. A Guide to the Sun-Earth System by John A. Eddy, NASA Publication #NP-2009-1-066-GSFC. Free to download (either the entire book or in parts) here: http://ilwsonline.org/ilws_publications.htm
I have only ever found one guy with a good theory on what is happening and why. His name is Fred Bailey and he has written books about his theory about solar chord science. His website is http://www.solarchords.com/. It is time to worry about coming crop failures in the northern hemisphere and the dwindling world food stocks due to ethanol farming.
We need to build a wormhole, place an uploaded copy of a fast-grown human mind into it, using the wormhole itself as refrigeration and lower the end containing the upload into the sun so she can study the sun!
I agree with The Public Service, July 24, 2013: “If history is anything to go by, the sun’s change of mood could affect us all by cooling the earth and throwing our climate change calculations into disarray. …..We do not know.” I know Dr Svalgaard does not believe that the Sun is producing the Earth’s cooling since we cannot identify any ’cause and effect’ links. History should be taken seriously as it is actual observation and even though our science is quite advanced, we still have a tremendous amount to learn.
Stephen Wilde says,
“As per Bob Tisdale’s work any small recent increase in ocean heat content is due to the recharge phase of the ENSO process. When La Ninas dominate,heat accumulates in the oceans.”
Stephen Wilde linked in his article to where it was said: “The simple relationship between global temperature and solar activity is obscured somewhat by the difference between global temperature and surface temperature. Global temperature is the average temperature of the oceans, which are the planet’s primary heat sink.” – Alec Rawls.
This statement goes a long towards helping me understand what’s going on? The Energy Budget Charts show a lot going on in the atmosphere with me trying to see, is the net result plus 1% or what and are is there net negative or positive feed? I think Wilde is saying Sun > Oceans > Atmosphere. So do the Energy Budget Charts and Models address this? I ask myself when the Oceans have I’d guess 1200 times the heat capacity (term uncertain) as the Atmosphere It seems to me the Oceans are driving things and the Atmosphere is reacting to that. If the Models don’t incorporate this, assuming it’s true, what chance do they have? We with our Atmosphere can compare ourselves to the Oceans and their roughly 1200 times more energy (term uncertain). Thanks to the authors for their insight.
@ur momisugly Salvatore Del Prete
Excellent work:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/15/newsbytes-suns-bizarre-activity-may-trigger-another-little-ice-age-or-not/
2-slide animation of North vs. South coupled temperature, mass, & velocity:
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6451/1xx.gif
Supplementary: http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/scd_sst_q.png
Sapere aude.
Stephen Wilde says:
July 24, 2013 at 10:48 am
Told you so:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=1396&linkbox=true&position=1
The Death Blow to Anthropogenic Global Warming by Stephen Wilde
Wednesday, June 4th 2008, 5:46 AM EDT
++++++++++
Thank you Stephen: I have created my own charts of temperature, PDO, ENSO and Solar Irradiance all synchronized in the same time frame – and it seems fool-hardy to not consider the sun. Your written time stamped predictions in 2008 must make you feel pretty good! I think Leif Svalgaard would would disagree, but I think he focuses mostly on TSI, and not the cumulative effects of an increased solar output – and as well disregards other regions of solar energy output as having a significant affect on what happens to our climate vis-a-vis changing temperatures.
We live in exciting times, and I’ve been pushing against the tide with mis-educated liberals in the Bay Area of CA for years. I’m starting to say, “I told you so” – but I can’t wait to see what happens.
Your 2008 missive on the subject seems timely now. Do you have an updated synopsis and new predictions?
Thanks, Dr. Peiser. Yes, and understanding Earth’s climate is being made even more difficult by the media love affair with catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.
We will keep watching the Sun.
I think Dr. Svensmark’s work is very promising. I have highlighted some of it in my climate pages.
There is a course at UNE supervised by Associate Prof Robert Baker, that I am thinking of pursueing towards my MA, I have already got my BA majoring in archaeology and palaeoanthropology and GCA (Graduate Certificate in Arts) that is mid way between a BA and MA, but this one is about sea levels and climate change. At one instance I sat one first year course ‘Earth in Crisis” also a course “Archaeology of the Landscape” just to complete my BA, and found his theories quite interesting. He mentioned how the sun and sun spots does affect the rainfall in some areas. And rainfall of course is most important to Australia, as we flip from flood to drought in some areas frequently. We have some differing regions from monsoonal up North, tropical and sub tropical, temperate to Alpine and of course desert in the middle of the continent. But this 500 level course is on sea level changes or palaeoclimate changes. He has researched the area on the South Coast of NSW and found sea levels were much higher than today by 50 – 100 feet 3,500 years ago. They have fluctuated over the centuries too. Should be interesting in a many aspect pertaining to climate change generally.
Tom Hobbes says: “Sorry to be a dolt but am a bit confused about the linkage between the sun spots/solar activity and climate….”
Among other things, there’s the possibility that the black body temperature of the sky is not independent of changes in thermosphere. The latter is very tenuous, but photons can not pass through it without at least one collision.
Tom Hobbes, you could read my articles on Svenmark’s work, “Extraterrestrial Climate Influence” (The Svensmark Hypothesis):
“Scientists have only recently come to suspect that cosmic rays have an important influence on Earth’s climate. Cosmic rays are highly energetic charged particles that originate from various sources in outer space.”
“Scientists have found a link between cosmic ray levels and thunderstorms. There is also a positive correlation between cosmic ray flux (CRF) and low-altitude cloud formation.”
“Ions created in the troposphere by cosmic rays could provide a mechanism for cloud formation.”
Do clouds disappear when cosmic rays get weaker? (Calder’s Updates, May 3, 2010):
“The Sun makes fantastic natural experiments” Henrik Svensmark says, “that allow us to test our ideas about its effects on the Earth’s climate”. Most dramatic are the events called Forbush decreases. Ejections of gas from the Sun, carrying magnetic fields, can suddenly cut the influx of cosmic rays coming to the Earth from exploded stars.
Taobabe,
Your delightful response to Stephen Richards’ condescension made me laugh even louder than Shaun Thomas’s hilarious parody in the original post! Thank God there are some real people in the room with actual feelings!!
Of course, most of the people here have perfectly functioning feelings and manners, but it’s always worth remembering that some of the cleverest, usually male scientists, engineers, financial analysts, etc. can be rather skewed towards the spectral disorder known as Asperger’s syndrome, i.e. they can be a bit lacking in the ‘feedback loop’ department, otherwise known as manners and consideration for others’ feelings. Working with several such individuals over the years, it took me quite some time to realise they didn’t actually mean any offence, and were actually giving me exactly the answer I needed. After that you can grow to like them. It’s always worth gently reminding them why ninety per cent of their co-workers hate their guts though, if only as an act of kindness.
Good luck with your investigations. You sound as though you are on the same journey of curiosity as all the rest of us. It’s very worthwhile here, and there are far too many posters and contributors with something authoritative or exhilaratingly new to say to walk away. Even though the conduct of the occasional zealot (either way) or mannerless egomaniac puts even me off once in a while.
Apart from anything else, this whole ‘global warming’ controversy is one of the first real scientific controversies of the internet age, and the human psychology that it exposes is fascinating. It is right up there with the great Victorian scientific controversies, and egos, reputations and fortunes at stake. And in spite of, and also because of that, there is a lot of extremely interesting science in progress. Meantime, nature carries on, relentlessly doing what it was going to do anyway, oblivious to us, hopefully.
Best regards,
Tom Olsen on July 24, 2013 at 11:34 am
Exactly! If you have 0.3C in 15 years, conclude that you have 0C in the next 15, the warmies concentrate on refuting one interpretation: “the warming is over.” They blag on about “it’s the sun” “it’s the ocean” “it’s the volcanoes” etc.
The ALTERNATIVE is more devastating for them – “the trend is intact, but only half as steep as you thought.” Because half the steepness means
– AGW truly is self limiting as fossil reserves expire
– there are No positive feedbacks.
We’re then free to enjoy the plant enhancing and other benefits of CO2 with trivial temp consequences when warming dies cyclically return.
To Larry Kirk, AJB, TC in the OC, Mark Hladik, Thank you so much for your information and for the enlightened responses. I do apologize for starting off on the wrong foot with the community, as it was never my intention to barge in and interrupt what you all were doing. I accidentally stumbled upon this website and found this stuff so fascinating. Unfortunately, since I am a writer and not a scientist, I do have huge gaps in my knowledge base about scientific understanding, but I am very proactive in acquiring knowledge and I am not shy about asking questions. I will try to play nice. I promise. 🙂
Bushbunny,
Thanks for pointer to Robert Baker’s work. How interesting that he is in the department of cognitive studies!
There have been some fascinating geological studies of variations in coastal sea levels over here in Western Australia, particularly the Geological Survey publication (for which I infuriatingly cannot find a reference right now) that included the study of sea level fall and coastal retreat at Port Kennedy, over the past 9,000 years, since the recent post-glacial Holocene Climate Optimum. This has been very accurately dated, using radiocarbon measurements of fossil wood in the successive coastal dune lines. If you Google-map search ‘Port Kennedy’, Western Australia you can see the area on the satellite image; it is marked Port Kennedy Science Park. Sea level has quite clearly been falling here for the past 9,000 years.
Other fascinating recent geological deposits along the West Australian coast include the very large rock slab mega-tsunami deposits up in the northwest of WA, documented and described by former head of the geological survey, Professor Philip Playford: http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/17798666/tsunami-finding-rocks-research/
Apparently there are also similar deposits on cliff tops along the NSW coastline in the Sydney area.
With regards,
The influence of solar activity on earth’s average global temperature (AGT) is accurately quantified by a proxy which is the time-integral of sunspot numbers.
GW ended before 2001. http://endofgw.blogspot.com/
AGW never was. http://climatechange90.blogspot.com/2013/05/natural-climate-change-has-been.html
taobabe, I think you started off on the right foot. I’ve never seen anyone get away with the P-word before! Plenty have wished to though, I’m sure. Keep asking those questions.. Cheers, LK
Mario Lento says:
July 24, 2013 at 7:36 pm
Thanks Mario.
Since my 2008 article I have created a stream of articles at climaterealists.com which, taken together, build up to a comprehensive climate overview from which I have extracted what I call a New Climate Model.
It is conceptual rather than mathematical but none the worse for that.
Will shortly have a new website ready specifically devoted to it.
Unfortunately Anthony classes the Climate Realists site as ‘Transcendent Rant and way out there theory’ but I hope that is due to the contributions of others than mine.
Do you remember how for years you were told by people that magical backerd’s radiation was uh gonna… boil your eyes out and prove you wrong about what you know of the migration of heat from one object to another?
Well, there’s a lot of posturing and stupidity going around regarding what the sun gives off: light,
and what the earth gives off: light.
They’re both the same thing and when you’re talking about light migrating from point to point of course you’re talking about photonic energy that either flies around, or it gets channeled when it’s entangled in the resonance spaces of an object’s electrons, in their orbitals. Nothing to see there, it’s well known it’s all the identical substance, and it’s also well known, there’s very little unusual, about the way it flows.
Remember how, for many years you’ve been seeing it told to you by all kinds of wackos, that the amount of light in the atmosphere is building up, and it’s infrared light, at the frequency the earth gives off?
And that it’s been proved there’s a connection with this light and the temperature of the earth?
Well, here’s what the practitioners of magic gas know, about light: a giant infrared light on, in the sky over everyone’s head, 24/7/365.25.
The American Meteorological Society: we’ve all heard of them:
A paper. Ah, what’s it say?
It says, “September 2011”. Ok.
It says “Volume 24 Issue 18, ok…
It says,
“Long-Term Trends in Downwelling Spectral Infrared Radiance over the U.S. Southern Great Plains”
by
“P. Jonathan Gero,
Space Science and Engineering Center,
University of Wisconsin, Madison, ”
and
“David D. Turner
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma,
and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,
University of Wisconsin, Madison”
Ok so they know kind of, how to read what Magic Gas is saying: it’s their very organization telling you, there’s radiation you don’t understand associated with climate, and that it’s rising.
Well guess what? These men laid out infrared detectors
checking on NOAA’s OWN STORY about there being a systematic connection to certain gases and infrared light.
They put out infrared downwelling energy detectors, for fourteen, count-em fourteen, years,
and when the fourteen years was up, while overall CO2 was rising, and man made CO2 was rising, guess what?
=====
The amount of earth frequency infrared light coming back out of the atmosphere, was less than when they started.
=====
This is the people telling you the original story: back radiation
checking their own story
and they discovered that across the southern Great Plains of North America, ground zero for the very foundational magic gas claims,
while the amount of man made CO2 increased and overall CO2 increased,
the amount of light they told you is in the atmosphere, because of CO2
was less than when they started checking, nearly fifteen years before,
using nearly three quarters of a million measurements.
=====
This is what those who believe in magic gas know, about photonic energy. They can’t even indicate to you, there’s a measurable component of light associated with their most fundamental and basic claim: that more gas, means more light: because that light is of itself the warmth being claimed to be generated by the presence of that gas.
There’s no escaping it. The paper’s firewalled of course but someone somewhere can get it.
Read what they say on the abstract here:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4210.1?journalCode=clim
=====
That’s from the people telling you “This here’s real complicated. It’s so complicated you don’t even understand. Because you ain’t uh… scientist so yew just caint tale, awl about them heaters. They are some kind, of tricky. Boy, howdy. Lemme tale yew.”
That’s their story. This is so complicated, they keep being wrong, because you’re stupid.
On the other hand, there’s this guy:
His name I got from here on these pages as he tried to get in a word edgewise among all the talk of magical back and forth-isms that happen without cause, to make the 168 watt in, 324 watt out magic gas mirror in GHE not be magical.
His name is Nicola Scaffetta and he’s an Italian.
He’s not into the “it’s awl two complicated for yew to understand” bit you hear from people telling you about a giant heater in the sky nobody can measure, but you’re crazy not to believe in.
He linked to another of his own papers here one day and I went to his site because I recognize correct mathematics when I see it on a subject and saw he was no scammer on the take.
I went to his web page at the University or wherever and in pure, dart board type fashion, picked as the first (it turned out the only relevant and clear one about climate) of his presentations,
this:
“Solar Activity and Climate
Nicola Scafetta, ACRIM & Duke University
The climate oscillations: analysis, implications and their astronomical origin.”
=====
For those of you who tire of the endless repetitions of seeing magic gas believers miss which way yet another instrument is going to point,
this man’s presentation will be like lightening striking, to reveal the entire valley of climatology’s, utterly un-credible, zombies, unable to simply make the math, meet the markers.
You think magic gassers have any credibility at all? Any at all?
You’ll remember why everyone knows they don’t when you see this man explain the Sun’s effect on your globe.
His English is very bad. When he says “oscillations” it sounds like “isolations”.
When he says “induced” it sounds like “inn dew said”.
When he says a few other words it’s really hard to understand and you have to have a full vocabulary in your head of the subjects at hand to derive the proper word to fill the gaps but it’s not too hard if you’re grasping his premise.
Oh – the word “heliosphere” or whatever, regarding the Sun,
he pronounces, as Latinized, “AY-lee-ohs-fear.”
=====
I’d suggest you simply cut to the chase but you kind of need to get into the flow of his deal, but if you’ve got any questions, you just cut forward, to about 20:00 where he says “this…black…LINE.”
If you go there and see that and wonder if he developed it without fail or interruption during the previous twenty minutes, then go back to the beginning of it and watch what he says.
Turns out the whole thing’s very simple. The inside of the sun’s not solid, and so the very most energetic point inside the sun, migrates around within it: and when planets’ orbits align one way, or the other, the gravitational pull, moves the gravitational center of the sun, affecting the amount of energy coming from the sun to any point on the map so to speak, around it.
Very simple,
Very clear.
He should be asked to make his presentation for readers everywhere climate is analyzed.
Nicola Scafetta:
iframe=true&width=80%25&height=80%25
Paul,
Why do you think that the Northern Hemisphere SST’s follow the solar de-acceleration, while the Southern Hemisphere SST follow the integrated SSN?