![most-influential-tree-350[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/most-influential-tree-3501.jpg?quality=83)
It seems that in the latest publication from CRU’s Keith Briffa, they decided to leave out those elements (The most influential tree in the world) Steve identified that led to the Yamal Superstick.
Have a look at this remarkable graph below.
McIntyre writes:
Unreported by CRU is that they’ve resiled from the Yamal superstick of Briffa 2000 and Briffa et al 2008 and now advocate a Yamal chronology, the modern portion of which is remarkably similar to the calculations in my posts of September 2009 here and May 2012 here, both of which were reviled by Real Climate at the time.
In today’s post, I’ll demonstrate the degree to which the new Briffa version has departed from the superstick of Briffa 2000 and Briffa et al 2008 and the surprising degree to which it approaches versions shown at CA.
Figure 3. Comparison of Briffa et al 2008 superstick to yamal_trw chronology of Briffa et al 2013. Both in z-scores.
[…]
…the next graphic shows the two CA calculations that had been so reviled by CRU and Real Climate (the green chronology of Sept 2009 and the May 2012 calculation with updated information from Hantemirov). I think that I’m entitled to observe that the B13 chronology is more similar to the two reviled CA calculations than it is to the Briffa et al 2008 superstick. Needless to say, this was not reported in CRU’s recent Real Climate article. 
Figure 4. Comparison of B13 Yamal chronology to CA (Climate Audit) calculations.
omnologos points out this missive from Gavin Schmidt on RealClimate:
The irony is of course that the demonstration that a regional reconstruction is valid takes effort, and needs to be properly documented. That requires a paper in the technical literature and the only way for Briffa et al to now defend themselves against McIntyre’s accusations is to publish that paper (which one can guarantee will have different results to what McIntyre has thrown together).
Looks like that guarantee expired.
Commenter ianl888 quips:
@Steve McIntyre
From Fig. 4 above:
it’s quite obvious that in 2009 and again in 2011, you shamelessly plagiarised Briffa 2013
Easily the worst sin in the academic book, run a close second only by disrupting the space-time continuum in order to perform the plagiarism
Too Funny! To prevent this from happening again, we need to establish a Pre-plagiarism Crimes unit, complete with a minority report. /sarc
Read Steve’s full report here: http://climateaudit.org/2013/06/28/cru-abandons-yamal-superstick/
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some tree
“’…. if you’ve seen two of them, you’ve seen yemal.’” [George E. Smith]
LOL.
It’s definitely a great achievement that the world’s leading climate scientists have learned how to use valid statistical methods to analyse their data after all these years.
Yamal is important as a folly of climate science as the deliberate or otherwise deception perpetrated on scientist and politicians alike.
Once I looked up Yamal on the Siberian map, I noticed it is a peninsula separating the Arctic Ocean deltas of two great Eurasian rivers, Ob and Yenisey, the main source of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean, discharging more than 32,000 m3/sec.
Arctic Ocean currents circulation is highly thermo-haline structured and any variability in the fresh water supply will have direct effect.
On this illustration
http://www.divediscover.whoi.edu/arctic/images/ArcticCurrents-labels.jpg
(Yamal is the second peninsula east of Kara Sea) WHOI shows this inflow of cold fresh water (in blue, together with inflow from Lena river further east) as the principal cold surface Arctic currents.
Some 10-12 years later these waters will encounter warm currents of the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, south-west of Iceland. as the one of two principal contributors to the to the sub-polar gyre circulation.
Warm water runs northward through, turns westward near Iceland and the tip of Greenland. The current loses heat to the atmosphere as it moves north. the current becomes cold, salty and dense, plunges beneath the surface, and heads slowly southward back to the equator. The cycle
is extremely sensitive to the buoyant fresh waters flowing south from the Arctic Ocean.
In another words, the Subpolar gyre is the engine of the heat transport across the North Atlantic Ocean, which is the region of the intense ocean – atmosphere interaction. Cold winds remove the surface heat at rates of several hundred watts per square meter, resulting in deep water convection. These changes in turn affect the strength and character of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the horizontal flow of the upper ocean, thereby altering the
oceanic poleward heat transport and the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST).
The observational data shows that the this variability is the source of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilation –AMO, principal source of the natural variability in the N. Hemisphere’s climate.
What this has to do with Yamal?
There is a direct correlation of the AMO with geomagnetic changes some 12 years earlier, at the delta of the two great Siberian rivers 6,000km away.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/YAMAL-GMF-AMO.htm
Physics of this correlation is not straight forward but I suspect that strong secular geomagnetic variability has an effect on the mixing of saline (electrically very conductive) with fresh (less conductive) waters.
Cannot be a very important, earth saving paper. Neither the ABC here in OZ nor the BBC or the Fairfax newpapers have reported this. (usually breathlessly). Sorry dudes, it just doesn’t rank as a watershed paper. No hockey stick just a broom stick. Maybe julia Gillard can use it to fly around now she doesn’t have the PM mobile. (just sayun)
Sarc off.
If Obahma, Gore, the IPCC and Krugman can get a Nobel will SMc get one as well??
regards
jim Steele says:
“Thank you Steve McIntyre for keeping them honest!!” My thoughts entirely.
‘Climate scientists’ do not like being kept honest, they really don’t like it. In the same way, politicians don’t like effective oversight to keep them honest.
Presumably this damning revelation is too late for AR5, so the Hockey Stick still limps on.
Hmm, the trolls are a bit quiet on this subject.
Anthony, you have to be more careful with your editing as surely the quote is not “Yamal Superstick”, but Yamal Supertrick”?
I also congratulate Briffa and McIntyre too. If Briffa’s illness was, in part, due to the pressures to stay “on song” with alarmism, then I know exactly how that sort of pressure can affect ones health. Sadly however, the damage has been done. There will be no apologies, no retractions, no reversal of damaging policy just more and more alarmism and lunacy. This so of thing usually does not end well for most people.
I’m reminded of the brilliant comments – I can’t remember who came up with them:
“If you see one tree you’ve seen Yamal” and “”One tree to rule Yamal…”
There’s no doubt about it: Steve McIntyre has more intellect and integrity that the whole of the hockey team, and all of their lackeys and apologists, combined.
If the you think of the time and energy Steven has spent showing poor science up with good science I am surprised he is not celebrating this back of the net moment by ripping his shirt off and diving full length across the the turf in front of 20,000 adoring fans.
Rocky Road
“CO2 diverging from temp isn’t a “divergence problem”–it’s an “intelligence problem” ”
I concur. But I would add:
The ‘divergence problem’ is in it self an ‘intelligence problem’. Or even ‘the elephant in the room’ which has been ignored (denied?) for the entire history of the so called ‘dendroclimatology’
Well done steve!
It should come as no surprise to anyone that paleo proxy reconstructions have no skill whatsoever in capturing real world ‘climate.’
graph 4 of this link shows it best
http://judithcurry.com/2013/06/26/noticeable-climate-change/
tonyb
I hate to pour water on all this triumphalism, but this ‘correction’ is because the purpose of the original papers has been achieved – The EU and the Etats Uni both have in place ‘carbon tax’ and energy controlling regimes and that was the entire purpose of the fraud. So now the climate ‘scientists’ can retrench a little in an attempt to save some face and dignity while the politicians take first world governance from here.
Ian8888
Sorry, I maligned your intelligence with my stupidity.
Randy Hughes says:
June 28, 2013 at 9:33 pm
All of the regulars here can be magnanimous when appropriate it’s just that some of us find it very difficult after so many years of exposing this grosse fraud. The team have had many, many opportunities to retract their lies but singularly failed so to do. Therefore, the time for magnanimity on our part has long since faded into the the mist of co².
String ’em up :))
So, where’s the big high-latitude Arctic warming?
Hi, is there anyway to lay a co2 graph on the top of the Biffa 2013? Is someone out there able to do that?
Where’s Scooter now?
This is a big deal.
So is Dr. Briffa now in Mr. Obama’s flat earth society?
Ian W says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
June 29, 2013 at 3:46 am
I hate to pour water on all this triumphalism, but this ‘correction’ is because the purpose of the original papers has been achieved – The EU and the Etats Uni both have in place ‘carbon tax’ and energy controlling regimes and that was the entire purpose of the fraud. So now the climate ‘scientists’ can retrench a little in an attempt to save some face and dignity while the politicians take first world governance from here.
Mods- what in this comment flagged it for moderation?
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
How many papers need to recast with this update?
Sorry, but this won’t change anything. Crying about cimate change has taken on the same life as crying racism in the US. People make money touting it, ‘victims’ profit from it, news orgs sell more newspapers, and politicians garner votes. The average person doesn’t remember last year’s weather and assumes the loudest people are the most expert. At one time I thought a decade of cold weather would change minds, but now realize Man would still be blamed for the climate. We’ve had a decade and a half of stable temperatures, and most believe the climate been warming.
Whoever controls the narrative controls the people, and those with a vested interest in Manmade climate change have a firm control over that narrative. Our science has proved correct. We have a moral victory, but a pyrrhic one.