Hey Ya! (mal) McIntyre was right – CRU Abandons one tree Yamal Superstick

most-influential-tree-350[1]
graphic by Jo Nova
This must be personally satisfying for Steve McIntyre, though I doubt the folks at RealClimate will have the integrity to acknowledge that he was right, and they were wrong.

It seems that in the latest publication from CRU’s Keith Briffa, they decided to leave out those elements (The most influential tree in the world) Steve identified that led to the Yamal Superstick.

Have a look at this remarkable graph below.

McIntyre writes:

Unreported by CRU is that they’ve resiled from the Yamal superstick of Briffa 2000 and Briffa et al 2008 and now advocate a Yamal chronology, the modern portion of which is remarkably similar to the calculations in my posts of September 2009 here and May 2012 here, both of which were reviled by Real Climate at the time.

In today’s post, I’ll demonstrate the degree to which the new Briffa version has departed from the superstick of Briffa 2000 and Briffa et al 2008 and the surprising degree to which it approaches versions shown at CA.

yamal_chronology_compare-to-b13

Figure 3. Comparison of Briffa et al 2008 superstick to yamal_trw chronology of Briffa et al 2013. Both in z-scores.

[…]

…the next graphic shows the two CA calculations that had been so reviled by CRU and Real Climate (the green chronology of Sept 2009 and the May 2012 calculation with updated information from Hantemirov). I think that I’m entitled to observe that the B13 chronology is more similar to the two reviled CA calculations than it is to the Briffa et al 2008 superstick. Needless to say, this was not reported in CRU’s recent Real Climate article. yamal_chronology_compare4

Figure 4. Comparison of B13 Yamal chronology to CA (Climate Audit) calculations.

omnologos points out this missive from Gavin Schmidt on RealClimate:

The irony is of course that the demonstration that a regional reconstruction is valid takes effort, and needs to be properly documented. That requires a paper in the technical literature and the only way for Briffa et al to now defend themselves against McIntyre’s accusations is to publish that paper (which one can guarantee will have different results to what McIntyre has thrown together).

Looks like that guarantee expired.

Commenter ianl888 quips:

Posted Jun 28, 2013 at 5:18 PM | Permalink

@Steve McIntyre

From Fig. 4 above:

it’s quite obvious that in 2009 and again in 2011, you shamelessly plagiarised Briffa 2013

Easily the worst sin in the academic book, run a close second only by disrupting the space-time continuum in order to perform the plagiarism

Too Funny! To prevent this from happening again, we need to establish a Pre-plagiarism Crimes unit, complete with a minority report. /sarc

Read Steve’s full report here: http://climateaudit.org/2013/06/28/cru-abandons-yamal-superstick/

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Chris @NJSnowFan
June 28, 2013 4:02 pm

Great video but so true for a Friday Night.
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc&feature=youtube_gdata_player ]

REPLY:
But we are talking about Briffa, not Mann. Funny but misplaced. – Anthony

MattN
June 28, 2013 4:04 pm

Can’t. Stop. Laughing.

Olaf Koenders
June 28, 2013 4:04 pm

Looks like they’re doing a sheepish grin moonwalk off the stage to oblivion.

June 28, 2013 4:05 pm

Well done Steve. Vindication!

June 28, 2013 4:17 pm

If they’re wrong, nail them. If they were wrong and admit it, pull out the nails.
(To Steve and others, thanks for swinging the hammer.)

June 28, 2013 4:18 pm

PS to Mann, Do you still think “The Hockey Stick” is not broken?

June 28, 2013 4:31 pm

McIntyre
One of the symptoms that comes along with “foot in mouth syndrome”, is that is physically very difficult to credit or apologize when, for the sake of discussion, one Briffa finds his proverbial foot in his mouth. Whereas it is known with some precision when one does put ones foot in ones mouth, evidence of removal of ones foot from ones mouth is not so well documented. This happens to a case where it was officially published (Briffa et al, 2013).
Keep up the good work!

June 28, 2013 4:32 pm

I put this up about a year ago.
Stopping by Yamal One Snowing Evening
by Michael Mann
What tree this is, I think I know.
It grew in Yamal some time ago.
Yamal 06 I’m placing here
In hopes a hockey stick will grow.
But McIntyre did think it queer
No tree, the stick did disappear!
Desparate measures I did take
To make that stick reappear.
There were some corings from a lake.
And other data I could bake.
I’ll tweek my model more until
Another hockey stick I’ll make!
I changed a line into a hill!
I can’t say how I was thrilled!
Then Climategate. I’m feeling ill.
Then Climategate. I’m feeling ill.

June 28, 2013 4:33 pm

The best bit is Gavin’s quote where he reassured the RealClimate True Believers that Briffa’s upcoming paper would surely show something very different from McI’s results…
REPLY: added, thanks – A

Dr. Deanster
June 28, 2013 4:34 pm

Well .. I”d like to think that things are falling apart for the “Team”, but we all know that science, correct, or incorrect, has never been a part of the Climate Debate. This is pure Political, headed by a pure Political Body [IPCC]. A correction in data has never had any impact at all on political agenda.
I’ve hung out on a political board for over 15 years with advocates of Global Warming … and simply put, …nothing will change their mind. [because their real beef is with the profits that the oil companies make … not climate].
AR5 … if the graph by the Lord of Benchley .. or whatever it is [No Offense], is correct, still has us predicted to boil … still totes the water that we need to ditch fossil fuels and kill more Swifts with Windmills.
But .. koodos to Steve …. it’s definitely a feather in his windmill.

Ian H
June 28, 2013 4:41 pm

Briffa seems to be leading the scramble towards the lifeboats. Mann will probably be the last to leave. Hanson will go down with the ship.

Fred from Canuckistan
June 28, 2013 4:43 pm

Integrity?
RealClimate?
What a funny guy you are.

MattN
June 28, 2013 4:44 pm

When was the last time Steve was wrong? Seriously, I don’t know.

June 28, 2013 4:51 pm

I saw a comment over at Lucia’s blog with a very interesting temperature study from stations around Yamal…
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tuyll/DATA/gl.pdf

TomR,Worc,MA,USA
June 28, 2013 5:08 pm

Has anyone posted Gavin’s quote over at realclimate (i don’t link to them OR SkepticalScience as it would bump their #s) with the two graphs to see if he has any comment?
PS
Go the Mighty British and Irish Lions!!!!!!!

Jack
June 28, 2013 5:18 pm

It won’t matter. You can’t convince a moron by rational argument. And a con man will just find another way around. Most of the AGW cheer leading is by people who are looters and parasites. Their living depends on there being climate change. They won’t stop.

Kev-in-Uk
June 28, 2013 5:27 pm

Personally, I’d prefer if they ALL went down with the ship !!
The disservice and discredit they have collectively brought upon ‘science’ is beyond comprehension and deserves nothing less than a place against a wall facing a firing squad. Davy Jones Locker would be too good a place for them IMHO.
Sorry, but I’m old school ‘trained’ – and the scientific misrepresentation they have perpetrated is beyond the pale – I can’t remember the film/whatever from which this comes but IMHO ‘Death’s too good for them!’ is the most appropriate quote I can think of at this juncture……..

Kev-in-Uk
June 28, 2013 5:28 pm

Ian H says:
June 28, 2013 at 4:41 pm
my previous post was in reply to Ian – sorry – forgot to highlight!

TYoke
June 28, 2013 5:39 pm

Dr. Deanster wrote that advocates of GW would never change their minds, because “their real beef is with the profits that the oil companies make … not climate”. I think this is pretty close, but not quite on the money.
Modern environmentalism has been compared to a green religion, and it has a lot of similarities. In particular, there is lots of guilt mongering over a perceived original sin. We have been cast out of Eden, because in our greed and pride, we attempted to advance ourselves with the industrial revolution.
The claim is always some version of: “I at least care enough about poor mother earth to challenge the greed and over-consumption of 1st worlders. Therefore you should defer to my righteous good intentions, and not coincidentally, to me”. Righteous indignation about oil companies is simply one instance of the larger theme.

FerdinandAkin
June 28, 2013 5:40 pm

We are being entertained with absurd humor. We have gone from Hockey Stick to slap stick.

Lew Skannen
June 28, 2013 6:01 pm

Aaaah!!! So satisfying. Especially when the Schmidt quote is added in.
Being in the sights of Steve McIntyre must be like being pursued by a less hurried, more polite but equally indefatigable version of The Terminator.
And when the post the next pile of rubbish posing as science – He’ll be back.

June 28, 2013 6:04 pm

Figure 4 needs to have Briffa-2008, preferably in light grey,
fading into legend… Discredited, but not forgotten.
Next item of business:
Who has the pedigree tree of papers that relied on Briffa-2008?
It ought to be a spectacular arrangement of falling dominos.

John F. Hultquist
June 28, 2013 6:10 pm

When this “most important tree in the world’ issue was taking up a lot of Steve McIntyre’s computer’s cycles did not the darn thing melt? Okay, maybe not, but I do recall a shout-out here on WUWT by Anthony for a bit of cash to help with building a new system for Steve at some point a few years ago. Sufficient response. New system. Money (& Anthony’s time, I recall) well spent.
Same old Steve.
Hey Ya!

DaveA
June 28, 2013 6:17 pm

Steve’s two run slightly warmer than Briffa 13; suppose that makes Briffa the climate denier.

June 28, 2013 6:20 pm

@Kev-in-Uk 5:27 pm
Davy Jones Locker would be too good a place for them IMHO
I dunno, it is about the only place left to find the “missing heat”

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