Paper: 'Summer temperatures were about 10°C warmer than today, even though the concentration of atmospheric CO2 was similar'

From AAAS: From Russia with Lovely Data

Climate and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are closely linked. Brigham-Grette et al. (p. 1421, published online 9 May) present data from Lake El’gygytgyn, in northeast Arctic Russia, that shows how climate varied between 3.6 and 2.2 million years ago, an important interval in the global cooling trend that accelerated rapidly at the end of the Miocene. Summer temperatures were about 10°C warmer than today, even though the concentration of atmospheric CO2 was similar.

Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia

Brigham-Grette et al.

Understanding the evolution of Arctic polar climate from the protracted warmth of the middle Pliocene into the earliest glacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere has been hindered by the lack of continuous, highly resolved Arctic time series. Evidence from Lake El’gygytgyn, in northeast (NE) Arctic Russia, shows that 3.6 to 3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were ~8°C warmer than today, when the partial pressure of CO2 was ~400 parts per million. Multiproxy evidence suggests extreme warmth and polar amplification during the middle Pliocene, sudden stepped cooling events during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, and warmer than present Arctic summers until ~2.2 million years ago, after the onset of Northern Hemispheric glaciation. Our data are consistent with sea-level records and other proxies indicating that Arctic cooling was insufficient to support large-scale ice sheets until the early Pleistocene.

Get notified when a new post is published.
Subscribe today!
0 0 votes
Article Rating
56 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mark Hladik
June 21, 2013 5:34 pm

Desert Yote: point taken; however, the synchonity of glacial pulses/initiation was not simultaneous within or between the hemispheres. That is all I was trying to point out.
Phlogiston: glad to help. Also, my bad — it is the Internation Commission on Stratigraphy. I was having an extended senior moment, and could not recall off the top of my head the formal group in charge of our stratigraphy.
Apologies for the misunderstandings,
Mark H.

James Allison
June 21, 2013 5:37 pm

jai mitchell says:
June 21, 2013 at 1:36 pm
Stephen Richards. . .
for your viewing pleasure. . .enjoy 🙂
—————————————————
Pluck that video clip off the WUWT popup ads. Did you jai?
Thanks anyway for giving me a clearer understanding about how your mind works which is great because now I dont need to read your comments.

AndyG55
June 21, 2013 6:09 pm

poor Jai, electricians, and OBVIOUSLY zero education about climate etc..
https://www.facebook.com/jai.j.mitchell
REPLY: Well I guess that answers my question about him using a fake name – Anthony
[Reply #2: the page is now “unavailable”. — mod.]

DesertYote
June 21, 2013 6:47 pm

Mark Hladik says:
June 21, 2013 at 5:34 pm
Desert Yote: point taken; however, the synchonity of glacial pulses/initiation was not simultaneous within or between the hemispheres. That is all I was trying to point out.
###
I guess I read more into your comment then intended. I totally agree with your point. In fact, the variations in the timings of glacial events is one of the reasons that make the redefinition of the base of the Pleistocene to coincide with the base of the Gelasian such good idea. Now if we could just get rid of that Holocene monstrosity!

AndyG55
June 21, 2013 7:37 pm

Did “Newclear” something at Berkeley..
but no award that he showed.
I should have taken a screen grab.
oh. isn’t that Muller’s roost ? which thread did Jai first appear on ?

Robert in Calgary
June 21, 2013 7:59 pm

If you log into FB, the link works.

Ashby
June 21, 2013 11:14 pm

Let’s keep the arguments with Jai on site and not go poking around into anyone’s personal life.

Editor
June 21, 2013 11:14 pm

Jai, if the world was 8C warmer in the past with CO2 levels virtually identical to what they are now, why is the world not 8C warmer now? There is only one answer; because there are other more important factors that influence climate. Tilt of the Earth’s axis as mentioned before being one, solar output, clouds, water vapour, volcanic eruptions being others.
Do you accept this?

AndyG55
June 21, 2013 11:58 pm

@Ashby..
gees, people just want to know if his ignorance is wilful, natural, or paid for.

AndyG55
June 21, 2013 11:58 pm

or all three.

AndyG55
June 22, 2013 12:04 am

skunky says:
I have a bridge for sale. It crosses the Thames, and has two big towers. £50,000,000 and it’s yours. email me at scammer@nigeria.com
um, sorry, but if you want to make the sale, you have to put the words “I am a government paid climate scientist”, somewhere in the brochure.
Sale to the bletheren… guaranteed !!!

ralfellis
June 22, 2013 12:16 am

Hey, we don’t need to go back 2 million years to find warm northern latitude temperatures. There were hippos basking in London and Norfolk some 0.5 million years ago:
http://www.nhm.ac.uk/about-us/press-office/press-releases/2004/press_release_3230.html
Quote:
Rare fossilised remains of two ancient hippos have been discovered in Norfolk by scientists at the Natural History Museum and Queen Mary, University of London. The newly found fossil bones of hippo, found alongside horse, hyena, fish and a variety of rodent remains, provide a rare glimpse of the life and landscape of East Anglia 500-780,000 years ago. The excavation site provides abundant evidence for environmental change and possibly points towards a unique find of animals existing in a warm period in the UK’s geological history that has never previously been recorded.
Endquote.

michel
June 22, 2013 2:20 am

There still are lots of hippos in Norfolk. Go into any downtown shopping mall in Norwich at the weekend and you can see them waddling around grazing and looking for mud baths to wallow in.

AndyG55
June 22, 2013 2:26 am

..
ouch !! because its true !!
worrying about climate change is not an issue…….
the next burger… much more so !!!

ralfellis
June 22, 2013 6:58 am

michel says: June 22, 2013 at 2:20 am
There still are lots of hippos in Norfolk. Go into any downtown shopping mall in Norwich at the weekend and you can see them waddling around.
__________________________________
ROFL.
But come, come, now, there are many more hippos in the US. Does this mean that the US is warming?
.

June 22, 2013 7:01 am

jai mitchell says:
Blah, blah, blah.
WUWT poster responds:
ZZZZ……
and the beat goes on.
LOL

Ashby
June 22, 2013 7:37 am

I wasn’t able to get past the paywall for the paper. When I look at this http://s8.postimg.org/s62bnbmyd/Lake_E_and_CO2_4_to_1_5_Mya.png it’s hard to see any direct correlation between temperature and CO2, let alone figure out the likely direction of any causal relationship. It appears temperature may be leading swings in CO2, but sometimes they de-correlate, so…? Question for someone with access- the yellow line is expressing “CO2 at 3.0C per doubling -280 ppm equals 0.0C”, are they back calculating CO2 based on temperatures assuming a sensitivity of 3.0C per doubling of CO2? Do they ever display raw CO2 calculations for the sedimentary data? What would happen to this chart if you assumed a sensitivity of 1.6? Would their CO2 numbers skyrocket? Or was the CO2 independently calculated?

Editor
June 22, 2013 9:42 am

jai mitchell says:
June 21, 2013 at 1:36 pm
> for your viewing pleasure. . .enjoy 🙂
The scenes from The Day after Tomorrow weren’t very believable. 🙂 Then again, the whole movie wasn’t, see my notes at http://wermenh.com/2016.html

adrian smits
June 22, 2013 12:15 pm

Jai Mitchell spending a lot of time at skeptical science can be dangerous to your intellectual development. Having the kind of conversation over there that we are having here is impossible because it is first and foremost an echo chamber for global warming promotion that deletes and edits almost all contrary opinions.

Perry
June 22, 2013 1:04 pm

FAO the unavailable Jai (Alias) Mitchell.
Basque pelota. A ball bounced off a walled space.
I guess that explains your environMENTALism. Whacked in the head.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jai_alai

Billy Liar
June 22, 2013 1:17 pm

I’m fed up with reading replies from people responding to activist nonsense.
I know it’s very hard to do faced with an onslaught of trash but please the ignore the troll and pay attention to the topic of the post. The troll gets off on your responses; if you ignore her she will go away.
If you don’t, the troll wins and the blog suffers.

June 22, 2013 1:56 pm

Chris @NJSnowFan [June 21, 2013 at 1:17 pm] says:
“One impact from a large meteorite, comet or asteroid in the right placement can change our seasons”

Sparks [June 21, 2013 at 2:06 pm] says:
“I wouldn’t think asteroid strikes would change the axis of the planet by very much in relation to the potential devastation they could cause anyway, but we share our solar system with other large bodies that are constantly interacting with the earth and frequently perturbing its orbit and there is a natural precession of the solar system as a whole at play, these factors can change earths orbit and axis even at an incredibly small rate that are only noticeable over long periods of time.”

I think you’re right about a “typical” asteroid, however there are apparently much bigger things. For example, whatever smacked into Uranus seriously affected it’s axial tilt and the consequences were enormous …

Uranus has an axial tilt of 97.77 degrees, so its axis of rotation is approximately parallel with the plane of the Solar System. This gives it seasonal changes completely unlike those of the other major planets. Other planets can be visualized to rotate like tilted spinning tops on the plane of the Solar System, while Uranus rotates more like a tilted rolling ball. Near the time of Uranian solstices, one pole faces the Sun continuously while the other pole faces away. Only a narrow strip around the equator experiences a rapid day-night cycle, but with the Sun very low over the horizon as in the Earth’s polar regions. At the other side of Uranus’s orbit the orientation of the poles towards the Sun is reversed. Each pole gets around 42 years of continuous sunlight, followed by 42 years of darkness.[47] Near the time of the equinoxes, the Sun faces the equator of Uranus giving a period of day-night cycles similar to those seen on most of the other planets. Uranus reached its most recent equinox on December 7, 2007.[48][49]

Northern hemisphere ---- Year ----- Southern hemisphere
 Winter solstice .... 1902, 1986 ... Summer solstice
 Vernal equinox ..... 1923, 2007 ... Autumnal equinox
 Summer solstice .... 1944, 2028 ... Winter solstice
 Autumnal equinox ... 1965, 2049 ... Vernal equinox

One result of this axis orientation is that, on average during the year, the polar regions of Uranus receive a greater energy input from the Sun than its equatorial regions. Nevertheless, Uranus is hotter at its equator than at its poles. The underlying mechanism which causes this is unknown. The reason for Uranus’s unusual axial tilt is also not known with certainty, but the usual speculation is that during the formation of the Solar System, an Earth-sized protoplanet collided with Uranus, causing the skewed orientation.[50] Uranus’s south pole was pointed almost directly at the Sun at the time of Voyager 2’s flyby in 1986. The labeling of this pole as “south” uses the definition currently endorsed by the International Astronomical Union, namely that the north pole of a planet or satellite shall be the pole which points above the invariable plane of the Solar System, regardless of the direction the planet is spinning.[51][52] A different convention is sometimes used, in which a body’s north and south poles are defined according to the right-hand rule in relation to the direction of rotation.[53] In terms of this latter coordinate system it was Uranus’s north pole which was in sunlight in 1986.

In the game of cosmic billiards there are certain shots that can ruin your entire day ( and lengthen it substantially :-).

June 22, 2013 3:51 pm

phlogiston says:
June 21, 2013 at 2:20 pm
We can return to the warmunists their own question – with interest. Concerning the last half of the 20th century with rising temps and CO2 they ask smugly “what else but CO2″ can be causing the warming?
Well, how about 3 million yrs ago? 8 deg C warmer than now with identical CO2.
What else can be causing the warming?
It clearly is not CO2.
########################
Many things cause fire. Arson, lightening, you can expand the list.
Your house burns down. The fire marshall comes. He notes that arson was not the cause.
Your child asks “does that mean arson cannot cause fires?”
of course you correct him. Arson causes fires. Fires are caused by other things. finding a fire not caused by arson, doesnt mean arson doesnt cause fires. And also, finding a fire doesnt mean that it must be caused by arson.
The planet warms when the output does not equal the input.
when watts out do not equal watts in. it warms to restore this balance.
The imbalance can be caused by many things: GHGs is one of those things. C02 is one of many GHGs.
However the mystery of past temperatures unravels, nothing in that narrative will change the fundamental fact of physics: GHGs cause warming. they dont cause cooling. Finding a fire not caused by arson, does nothing to prove that arson doesnt cause fires.

June 22, 2013 4:01 pm

Steven Mosher says:
June 22, 2013 at 3:51 pm
phlogiston says:
June 21, 2013 at 2:20 pm
We can return to the warmunists their own question – with interest. Concerning the last half of the 20th century with rising temps and CO2 they ask smugly “what else but CO2″ can be causing the warming?
Well, how about 3 million yrs ago? 8 deg C warmer than now with identical CO2.
What else can be causing the warming?
It clearly is not CO2.
########################
Many things cause fire. Arson, lightening, you can expand the list.
Your house burns down. The fire marshall comes. He notes that arson was not the cause.
Your child asks “does that mean arson cannot cause fires?”
of course you correct him. Arson causes fires. Fires are caused by other things. finding a fire not caused by arson, doesnt mean arson doesnt cause fires. And also, finding a fire doesnt mean that it must be caused by arson.
The planet warms when the output does not equal the input.
when watts out do not equal watts in. it warms to restore this balance.
The imbalance can be caused by many things: GHGs is one of those things. C02 is one of many GHGs.
However the mystery of past temperatures unravels, nothing in that narrative will change the fundamental fact of physics: GHGs cause warming. they dont cause cooling. Finding a fire not caused by arson, does nothing to prove that arson doesnt cause fires.
+++++++++++++++++++
Again Mosher creates a strawman. The point which you want to redirect people from, is that CO2 was claimed the culprit of the warming with almost 100% certainty. The evidence does not bear that out. CO2 has not been shown to have caused all or most of the warming as has been argued.
To pick your point apart and shred it, there is evidence that arson has caused fires. But no evidence that CO2 caused the warming –none. So your strawman is baseless. Stop trying to delude people with strawmen scenarios. Your cleverness is diabolical, but it does not fool me or many others.

Robert of Ottawa
June 22, 2013 5:12 pm

Yes, yes… but … it was … colder then 😉 that’s what made it warmer
Sorry, couldn’t resist the thumb-nose