According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
Never heard of this proxy before.
Seems we’ve beaten the record [depending on who measures it].
I’m looking at better insulation here in the UK [about 51 N – some 800 n. m. south of Nenana] – as we’ve had a couple of grisly years.
The Olympics squeaked through with the best weather for a twelvemonth [someone, somewhere owes the Big Man one!].
Otherwise it’s may, nearly freezing some evenings, much [mostly moderate or light] rain – and scarcely a sighting of a strange, unfamiliar yellow disc in the heavens.
London isn’t Alaska – but we’ve got watermelonistas, too, running our Energy ‘policy’ – so brownouts by 2018 – ever the optimist . . . . .
FFS this is the UK!
Plainly the Cameroons and their delightful DimLeb partners do not have a blind clue about what is necessary for society to avoid plunging into a black void.
And some of them wonder why the UK Independence Party [UKIP] gets so many votes!
Disconnect level forty-five!!!
Right – I’m off to bring my blood pressure down!
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“The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.”
Maybe it’s a pretty good proxy for global temperature fabrication in the 21st century ?
13:02:09 AKDT = 12:02:09 AKST, so the record is now official.
Good thing, too: that ice is looking mighty fragile. I doubt that
the breakup will be delayed more than a few hours from now.
I’m not so sure it is as fragile as folks think, just 2 weeks ago it was 40 inches thick.
I suspect a lot of that is just melt water ponds on the top of the ice.
It’s clear the Nenana records need serious adjustment 😉
Weather is not climate, except when it is. ;o)
This really isn’t good news. Warmer is better.
It looks like ice pieces moving in the channel that appears to be behind the tripod. It may be just about time now.
Larry Ledwick (hotrod) says:
May 20, 2013 at 2:12 pm
> I’m not so sure it is as fragile as folks think, just 2 weeks ago it was 40 inches thick.
I suspect a lot of that is just melt water ponds on the top of the ice.
In past years ice out has often happened with 40″ of ice. We’re talking river, not pond.
In one of the Ice Classic’s posts, they said they stopped measuring ice depth because it was getting too dangerous.
Due to the well-known “Pyramid Cooling Effect”, the heat from the water has been focused up and out for quite some time which keeps the ice thicker directly underneath. The same thing happens when you put on a cowboy hat, sorta.. kinda… in a round-about way.
Ice chunks starting to flow in center of river where water is over the ice, Good sign for breakup to start. Should not be long now
It’s clear that warming in the 21st Century has gone to the bottom of the river (below 700mm) and no longer warms the surface. Thus the ice lasts longer even though there is more heat in the water. This is evidence that global warming has continued, and it is entirely consistent both with our previous predictions and with our new theory.
For the guy who took 2 o’clock, sorry. Pole’s straight as a string.
Better luck next year.
AndyL says:
May 20, 2013 at 2:58 pm
This new theory – it wouldn’t have anything to do with ‘Invisible thermal energy’by any chance? perhaps,like Dark Matter – we can have Dark Thermal Energy???? (Oh damn – expecting KT et al to jump on this asap!)
move on folks .. nothin’ happening here .. come back tomorrow ..
does not the local logging help cool the region .?
I think we need to burn a lot more coal to help the tower fall. Where’s that CO2 when you need it?
Damn, the red truck I was using as a yardstick has driven off.
… and its gone.
Ice out has occurred sometime after 15:00 and prior to 15:43 AKDT
15.44.45 It’s gone!
And… it’s gone!
Looks like the tripod is missing.
at 15:40:14 to 1540:30 went out got pict just before I was using live cam shot 15:40:14 when chunks started moving the tripod moved some..http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vid-nenanamega.htm
Well that *was* fun! 🙂
Perhaps no one is following this, but I still find the pace of season change here quite amazing. This website shows info from the Nenana webcam for each day of the month, some weather data, and has a video replay for each day as well.
http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/Adam12/1/show.html