According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
I wager that next year when the breakup is at a more typical time, we’ll get a deluge of stories about the “alarming” acceleration in earlier breakup dates.
mom2girls says: May 20, 2013 at 12:02 pm
It would appear from your link(s) that most breakups are running near or after record late dates.
Yes, if one hovers over of the dots on the following map you can see the Average Breakup Date for each location and if you click on the dots you’ll see each locations Breakup Database:
http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/index_breakup.php
Nenana may not be the only record broken this year…
Is that James Hansen on the ice with a chainsaw?
Crowd starting to form – it hasn’t moved yet AFAICT, but looks like it’s getting close…
We have a record breaker.
Ahhhhh… I don’t think I can see James now but I still see the “tripod”!
Records, like ice, are made to be broken.
11:43:26 AKDT, still standing. Less than 1 hour to the simple
calendar record!
As has been noted, computing in various different fashions,
(e.g., time since equinox), the record has already been broken.
II:51 she holds fast. Heh. Whew, I’m off the hook.
If this classic could be bet on globally, the revenue for this town would be colossal and the prize would be, too. Only downside is that the prize may not be won locally very often.
Almost Miller time, don’t let us down. add a day or so to silence the leap year arguments, etc.
The small crowd are probably the ones that still can hope to win.
It’s 12:30ish local time. This may be a sightseer lunch crowd. Supposedly there’s a good place or two to eat around there.
Ten minutes!
“Is that James Hansen on the ice with a chainsaw?”
Nah. That’s a hockey stick he’s holding.
“It’s 12:30ish local time. This may be a sightseer lunch crowd. Supposedly there’s a good place or two to eat around there.”
I believe it’s an all-you-can-catch place. 🙂
Quite a few cars, only a few minutes to go for the Standard/Daylight boundary.
Between 10am and 12:30pm there has been a few inches of discernible movement.
Looks like it maybe moved a couple feet downstream?
Looking on street view google maps where they place the tower is just down the street from the State of Alaska rail road museum, Nenana Depot at A and Front street, which is across the street from the “Moochers Bar” and Kristi’s Cusine. Might as well take a virtual drive around the town while we are waiting for the Ice Out. 😉
Google maps @ur momisugly 64.564227,-149.095789
I think we have a new record . . .
I was born in 1945 and graduated in 1964 . I still have several guess in. I went with my gut feeling!!!!!!!!!!!!
@ur momisugly Mitch H.
Looks like camera angle slightly changed…rather than the tripod moving down stream.
And it’s done… the record belongs to 2013
I don’t see any movement. Compared to the pics from a few days ago.
Otoh that crowd probably heard something on the wireless.
12:47 on the webcam. A lot of water nearby now. Decreasing chance of lunchtime crowd, increasing chance of the crowd being here for the drama.