According to the ice breakup log, the latest the ice has ever gone out was May 20th, 1964 at 11:41 AM Alaska Standard Time. As of this writing there is about 28 hours to go to break that record.
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2009,
The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century.
If that’s true, it looks like we are headed to colder times. Here is the current live view which updates every 30 seconds.
Refresh to see the latest.
I’ve been watching over the past 12 hours and the tripod has drifted downstream slightly, rope slack changes gave the impression that the tripod had changed position, but that’s an artifact of wind, and there appear to be leads in the ice opening nearby, though it is hard to tell if they go through the ice or if it is simply water on the surface.
Here is what the image looked like on 5-15-13 (thanks to Willis):
They need a weather station there to go with the live image. Many people want to know what the temperature and wind conditions are like.
[UPDATE] I trust Anthony won’t mind my adding a blink comparator between the 16th at two in the afternoon, and the 19th at ten in the morning. Click on the image to see the comparison.
From my inspection, I’d say the tripod hasn’t moved … it looks like it’s tipped a bit, but I think that’s just the different sun angles, because the black-painted sections don’t seem to be moving.
It’s the most exciting slow-motion event I know of …
w.
Yes, it’s frozen for me too… looks like someone doesn’t want to let the world see the record be broken!
mom2girls says:
May 20, 2013 at 10:24 am
Has the image frozen at 9:17:16 local time for anyone else?
Now 9:28:48
All the watchers are probably pounding the crap out of their web cam server.
😉
It’s back now. Strange. Wish there was a camera on the camera 😛
It had frozen but the latest image I have is from 09:30:15. Pretty much up to date even from 12 time zones ahead. She’s looking good. The record might be blown out of the water this year…
Now the campers are showing up. I’d love to know how many guesses in the pool were actually for date/time after the 1964 record.
Currently 38 deg F with a wind at 6 from the west north west (ie down stream) forecast for high of 72 deg F and partly cloudy today, so my guess is it will go in the next 5-6 hours.
The locals will have clues we don’t like the sound of the ice and calls from friends up stream etc. I suspect we will see quite a crowd show up when it gets close, based on those videos of earlier ice out events.
Looks like an oldtimers gathering right now. Full moon on the 24th. It’ll definitely be gone by then.
09:31 SUV and some people
09:33 Camper pulls up on left side, by the viewpoint it looks like camper ran over a rope.
Looked like red top of tower fell over, actually that appears to be a windsock.
09:38 Camper gone.
Truthfully, I have found watching paint dry to be more fun. A small propane torch was involved, if that matters.
Measuring from the equinox, a new record has been set.
Measuring from the solstice, a new record in 5 minutes.
By Nenana calendar scoring, less than three hours to go …
97% of all global temperature proxies agree that the Earth is entering a strong cooling phase…
From mom2girls on May 20, 2013 at 10:44 am:
Check the Nenana lunar post, full moon was already seen.
*snork*. I guess that WAS a full moon. How attractive. What was the low last night, 20’s?
Wonder how much dude lost betting against an unforseen record. LOL
Is there a strong wind from the right (upstream)? The cables are moving around quite a bit at the moment. By eyeballing the tripod/quodripod on the small clump of trees on the opposite bank of the river nothing has moved yet.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/AK/Nenana.html
shows 6 mph gusting to 9 right now, temp is up to 41.
It is true that 1964, the year of the previous record, was a leap year. On the other hand, 1964 was in between solar cycles 19 and 20. This year 2013, we are supposed to reach the top of the very weak solar cycle 24. Looking at the break up Log, most late break up records are established when solar activity is low, so a break up record during the top of a solar cycle is really something special.
Not sure this link will work, but as we watch this ice event in Nenana, major problems in Circle with Yukon River flooding: https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=513782642008467&set=a.146147645438637.42652.137686999618035&type=1
For those of you trying to spot first motion they have a high resolution option for this camera too:
http://www.borealisbroadband.net/vid-nenanamega.htm
Films, music and cars have” instant classics”. WUWT has instant obsession. I was kinda normal before this began.
Can’t last much longer. Today is the day…
This is helpful Alaska Breakup Map from NOAA;
http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/data/maps/brkup_map.jpg
and here is NOAA’s Nenana breakup database;
http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/php/brkup/brkupall.php?searcharea=Tanana&searchtermriv=Tanana&searchtermloc=Nenana
which appears to match the dates listed in the Nenana Ice Classic Breakup Log:
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/Breakup%20Log.html
Six guys bet on the ice breakup of their local river, beginning only a few years after the Wright brother’s first flight, settling the results with a couple rounds of hooch.
Now, 107 years later, we can watch the breakup live from virtually anywhere in the world, an event that’s tangentially referenced in a global political struggle and sometimes scientific debate.
Hardly grass growing.
JustTheFacts:
It would appear from your link(s) that most breakups are running near or after record late dates.
Any web-sites that also cary audio as well? I imagine that the sound of all that stuff breaking loose at once would be impressive.