The 400 PPM FUD Factory: T-shirts now available

arthur4563 says:
May 11, 2013 at 2:58 pm
I love these magic numbers : ….. or during the early days of motoring, when a speed of 100 miles per hour would kill you (lack of oxygen). Proof that people are really stupid and/or gullible.
============================================
Arthur, I’ll see your 100mph and raise you 15mph.
“Thundering along at previously unimaginable speeds, early steam locomotives were a frightening prospect for their Victorian passengers. Before the opening of the first major railway line, the Liverpool & Manchester in 1830, there were fears it would be impossible to breathe while travelling at such a velocity, or that the passengers’ eyes would be damaged by having to adjust to the motion.”
http://www.historyextra.com/railway
But not stupid in the main. Probably gullible, the average Joe hasn’t sufficient knowledge or education to recognise the snake oil.

w*rks just fine for me w/Firefox, once i told the script blocker it was ok to let them run on that page.

@Alpheus
That’s diatomic (sic) cobalt

Above the fear, uncertainty, doubt headline, and above the $2.50 price tag is the weather report calling for cooler temperatures, and confirming the lack of drought.

“portending”; what a word.
No wonder its usage is limited.
Hate to waste a word like that, with overuse.

stuart L says:
May 11, 2013 at 5:08 pm
Off Topic
but can someone send me a link to a good graph showing the earth’s temperature has not risen in the last 15years
Why settle for 15? See the following where RSS has no slope from December 1996 to April 2013, or 16 years and 5 months.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.9/plot/rss/from:1996.9/trend

Its just like the doomsday peopel.
When nothing happens one year, they just say , “oh , we meant next year”
Its a joke and a fart.

Sorry. Not classy enough. My favorite t-shirt is heavy, heavy white with a thick black collar and black *cap* sleeves…. (It’s a pit bull with pearls and lipstick…): Pit Bulls for Palin
I can dress it up, or play it down. I’d like one, but…. …Lady in Red

guenier, The Y2K bug was a lot of misleading news reporting. In order for software to have a Y2K problem several things must be true: (1) The software uses BCD (Binary Coded Decimal) for dates and only uses 2 digits for the year. Unix and the MAC OS encodes the date as a binary number and did NOT suffer from the Y2K problem. (2) The software must make use of a date to function. For example, if the software does not care what the date is, like a Word Processor, it does not matter.
Some software did need to be fixed, BUT the scope of the problem was far less that what the news media made it sound like and we never passed the point of no return. Even though many reporters kept saying it up to a year before the Y2K bug. In the case of an embedded system, setting the date back 28 years made the system work correctly as far as the day of the week.
In many ways, the 400 PPM is like the Y2K bug, the scope of the problem is exaggerated endlessly by the news media.

@Ritchard Howes : 420 is OK I agree, but my driver is 460. But thanks to all of you some of the comments are great!

It was in USA Today on April 24:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/04/24/carbon-dioxide-keeling-curve-global-warming/2110445/
The plausibility of the claim rests on CO2 measurement from Mauna Loa back to 1958, and before that only CO2 concentrations from IPCC-certified ice core measurements (which are moving averages and therefore smoothed).
Otherwise there are literally thousands of chemical measurements – error < 3% – which clearly show that CO2 had surpassed 400 ppmv in the 1820s and 1930s:
http://www.biomind.de/nogreenhouse/daten/EE%2018-2_Beck.pdf
Likewise, CO2 measurements based on stomata show concentrations above 400 ppmv less than 5 mil. years go:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plant-stomata/
So it is just another “news alert” based on the “we-ignore-data-that-does-not-fit-our-theory”.

Fud means something very different in Scotland where I live.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fud
Gives a whole new meaning to “FUD Factory”.

Anthony, my suggestion was for you to send a nice tee to Mikey Mann to celebrate the day and that magical u400, but I don’t think I recall him personally thanking you, Josh and Kenji for the calendar. So until he shows he can man up and show some very basic and proper courtesird I have to withhold my suggestion.
cn

PG,
All I have is a whole patch of deep grass, no roses and certainly no valuable shrubs.
guess it comes down as to which is most edible. ! 🙂
Interesting thought…. do lambs eat mint ….yummm !

Andy, it depends on how you want your lawn to look. Goats are very picky eaters, so you don’t get anything like the close-clipped lawn a sheep will give you. More like someone dragged your lawn through a hedge backwards. Dunno if lambs eat mint, though they taste very good with mint 🙂
Thanks for the link BTW. I’d not seen it.

I am one of those people who while working for a large multi-national and a couple of other organisations worked on converting the code (some of it COBOL) so that there were no Y2K problems and the work started well before the year 2000. While working on the issue I was privy to a number of issues that had been identified and solved before the date. Some were simple like elevators going to the ground floor. Others were like the electrical distribution network nodes in the US that all had to be updated otherwise they would have failed or some aircraft software that would have caused flight issues. It what was probably the biggest concerted worldwide effort by many nationalities on many countries working on a single issue. The work was put in and on the day there was still some problems but many were minor. Most of the work was done behind the scenes, not advertised nor the potential problems broadcast. Tests were made and the problems observed then just without any fuss fixed. To belittle this work and the results like some here have does a serious disservice to those that put in the work and puts the scoffers in the same category as the ‘Warmists’ that these same people regularly criticise in these pages (often quite validly) i.e. you simply don’t know what you’re writing about.

Chuck Nolan, I think Mann could handle a free t-shirt. Although it wouldn’t be “flashy”, it could be “widely distributed”…
Guys, didn’t we beat the Y2K stories to death a few days back? Yes, potential, yes disaster averted, yes lots of us made good money doing little or nothing for panicked people who don’t understand that most embedded chips usually don’t care even a little bit about the date…

You’re right, CodeTech (re Y2K) – “Yes, potential, yes disaster averted” And, yes, we did beat it to death a few days back. And that’s precisely why it’s unfortunate that three out of seven of these t-shirts have that inappropriate and unhelpful (except perhaps to CAGW zealots) slogan.

Over the top scare quote:
“We are a society that has inadvertently chosen the double-black diamond run without having learned to ski first. It will be a bumpy ride.”
http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/Experts-CO2-record-illustrates-scary-trend-4508335.php#ixzz2T5PPxgAA

Don Mogstad says:
May 11, 2013 at 5:10 pm
Its not the 400PPM of CO2 that I am afraid of…. I am terrified that the remainder of the atmospheric gases have now dropped down below 999,600 PPM.
I predict that when all the other gases, combined, drop to less that 999,580 PPM all sorts of terrible things will begin to be predicted to happen in the near future; and that unless/until we all pool our collective resources to stop it, the non CO2 portion of the atmospheric gasses will drop to 999,560 ppm.
————————————————————–
Scary thought! “near future”?
For clarification purposes, how is the near future defined?
Would you say 150 years should just about cover near future?
I for a wait and see approach.
cn

Vince Causey: there were several problems with date windowing. To take your example, a system reconfigured in this way wouldnʼt recognise 1900 to 1928 (affecting, for example, a bank’s older customers), would have problems interfacing with systems that were differently configured and, above all, would start to fail as 2028 approached if it were not updated. Windowing caused problems for example in the run up to 2010 – the so-called Y2.01K problem. Probably the most important failures were in Germany, where about 30 million bankcards had problems, and in Belgium, where Citibankʼs “digipass” customer identification chips stopped working. The German failure was reported** to have cost €300m ($420m). Thatʼs hugely significant: it puts into perspective claims that money spent on Y2K remediation was wasted. That one relatively minor failure could cost so much to fix after it had failed, emphasises the massive advantage of spending comparatively modest sums to avoid the possibility of countless such failures.
** http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/06/2010-bug-millions-germans

_Jim says:
May 12, 2013 at 7:04 am
” DirkH says May 12, 2013 at 6:32 am
…
The computer system used by the Berlin fire guard collapsed on New Years eve,
Due to a DATE issue?
DirkH, I hate to do this to ya, but, at this point that is pure “hearsay” (i.e., defined as being “The evidence of those who relate, not what they know themselves, but what they have heard from others”.)”
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berliner_Feuerwehr
“In der Neujahrsnacht 2000 kam es zu einem Totalausfall der Leitstellen-IT einschliesslich Rückfallebene. Es war für mehrere Stunden keine geordnete Abarbeitung von Notrufen möglich; als Behelf wurden Einsatzfahrzeuge auf Streifenfahrten geschickt. Ein Zusammenhang mit dem sogenannten Jahr-2000-Problem bestand dabei nur am Rande.[18][19] Das betroffene Einsatzleitsystem FIS wurde mittlerweile durch das modernere IGNIS ersetzt.[20]”
What they mean by this is that attempts at fixing the obsolete software to harden it for the year 2000 problem made the system even more fragile. So in that regard the collapse of the system is Y2K related.
More details here:
http://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Computer-GAU-Das-Silvesterchaos-bei-der-Berliner-Feuerwehr-25744.html
It’s a long time since that was reported so I didn’t have the link at hand. Heise is the publisher of the leading German computer magazine c’t. They are a trustworthy source – sometimes they even report something from the anglosphere which our German MSM have conveniently forgotten to translate.

Harabin on the BBC was punting it as “highest level in the history of the human race.” Naturally there was no one there to pose the question “when did we start measuring it reliably?”

Frost warning here in Ohio tonight.
Hope the manufacture of my several T shirts contributed a little CO2 to the place. It’s mighty chilly here. {{{Brrrrrrrrrrr}}}

[snip – off color comment plus fake email address -mod]

Here is a graphic I put together to show the increasing disparity between anthropogenic emissions and CO2 level. CO2 level is determined by temperatures and, as temperatures recede, it is decelerating.
In contrast, human emissions are relentlessly accelerating. The disparity should become undeniable in the next several years as we shift into the cooling phase for global temperatures.

The Pompous Git.
You said: “IIRCC Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia did nothing, or next to nothing about their Y2K problems. Perhaps you could give us some examples of the Y2K disasters that inevitably must have occurred in those countries as a consequence if you are correct.”
Here’s an extract from pages 14 and 15 of my paper** (note especially the second paragraph, and go to the paper itself for supporting data, links etc.):
“Banking, in particular, is intrinsically an international activity – see the statements and advice from the Bank for International Settlements referred to in page 7 and detailed in endnotes viii and ix. Note also that the World Bank produced a “tool kit” re Y2K for developing economies (endnote xxvi). Moreover, no bank or other financial institution could regard the matter as resolved unless it had been resolved also in overseas banks and by other, not necessarily financial, organisations with which it had dealings. So banking action had a substantial knock-on effect throughout the world. Similar considerations applied to telecommunications (endnote xxvii) and other essentially international concerns such as meteorology (endnote xxviii) and air traffic control (endnote xxix).
So, contrary to the impression given by much of the media, international Y2K remedial activity was substantial and widespread. Nonetheless, itʼs true that the problem was considerably more serious in some countries than in others. For example, unsurprisingly, little action was taken – or was necessary – in underdeveloped countries such as Chad, Haiti and Afghanistan where few businesses or services were computerised. But also some more developed economies, such as countries in Eastern Europe, needed to do relatively little. And that, paradoxically perhaps, was because they had introduced digital computing on a substantial scale relatively late; therefore, unlike developed Western economies, they did not rely on systems incorporating software originally developed in the 1960s and 1970s. And, in any case, countries that were less technologically developed and had simpler infrastructure had less to go wrong and any problems were much easier to resolve. For example, many developing countriesʼ telecommunications were controlled by analogue systems (with gauges) not digital systems (with readouts) and thus were not at risk (endnote xxx).”
** http://fm2x.com/The_Century_Date_Change_Problem.pdf
dbstealey: I suggest you read the above paper (or at least the Executive Summary). It demonstrates how you’ve misunderstood Y2K and Daryl M has not. Thanks.
PS: unless anyone insists to continuing this Y2K exchange, I suggest we give it a rest. Anthony isn’t changing the 400PPM t-shirt and I accept his decision. So the matter’s effectively closed for the purposes of this thread.

How about a thermal version.

The Pompous Git : I’ve explained above that the Y2K problem was essentially about software problems buried within “legacy” systems originally developed in the 1960s and 1970s. Unlike developed Western economies, developing economies such as Indonesia introduced digital computing towards the end of the century, hadn’t inherited the problem and therefore didn’t need to implement major Y2K remediation programmes. That’s why Indonesia unsurprisingly had no disasters despite taking only limited action (reported BTW to have cost “at least” $200 million). Simple really.
Nonetheless, Indonesia experienced a few relatively minor problems. See Annex III of this report: http://www.unescap.org/56/e1183e.htm

“180 Years accurate CO2 – Gasanalysis of Air by Chemical Methods (Short version)”
http://www.anenglishmanscastle.com/180_years_accurate_Co2_Chemical_Methods.pdf
There’s so much here, but
“There is no constant exponential rising CO2-concentration since preindustrial times but a variing CO2-content of air following the climate. E.G. around 1940 there was a maximum of CO2 of at least 420 ppm, before 1875 there was also a maximum.”
Who knows it may start to fall despites mans efforts?

dbstealey: those of us involved in Y2K remediation (unlike the media) didn’t predict disaster. We warned, however, of serious problems if nothing was done. Fortunately, a great deal was done and, as you quite correctly say, “there was no Y2K disaster. Any problems were minor, and quickly resolved.” And that, of course, was the whole point of the exercise. Far from believing that Y2K was a disaster, I’m proud of the small part I contributed towards ensuring it wasn’t.
Nonetheless you think the problem was “mostly imaginary”. OK – here’s a challenge for you: read my paper carefully and tell me precisely where you think I’ve got it wrong. No waffle please – a precise, properly referenced answer. Thanks.
BTW – the media tried hard to find all those people who’d made a lot of money out of Y2K. They failed and gave up. The real work – checking countless millions of lines of code, fixing and testing fixes etc. was mind numbingly boring, unglamorous, thankless and poorly rewarded. The real money in IT at the time (late 1990s) was made blowing up the dotcom bubble. If you’re looking for a scandal, you’ll find it there.

guenier said @ May 13, 2013 at 12:45 pm

BTW – the media tried hard to find all those people who’d made a lot of money out of Y2K. They failed and gave up. The real work – checking countless millions of lines of code, fixing and testing fixes etc. was mind numbingly boring, unglamorous, thankless and poorly rewarded.

Now you’re just blowing smoke. Relative to programmers, as a trainer of end users I was “poorly paid” in them days. It took me twelve months to accumulate enough cash to build a luxury home, albeit a smallish one (1500 ft^2). Java and C++ programmers told me they earned twice as much as me and worked nowhere near as hard. Cobol programmers were earning much more than ordinary programmers since they were in very short supply. Poorly rewarded? Why would anyone come out of retirement to be “poorly rewarded”?

dbstealey: as I said to TPG, the Y2K issue was essentially about software problems buried within “legacy” systems originally developed in the 1960s and 1970s. Unlike developed Western economies, developing economies such as Indonesia introduced digital computing towards the end of the century, so hadn’t inherited that basic problem and therefore didn’t need to implement major Y2K remediation programmes. Which part of that are you struggling to understand?
So you think Y2K no different from CAGW?
Let’s start at the most basic level. First Y2K: it was easy to show that using two digits, not four, to designate the year (e.g. “70” instead of “1970”) was a standard practice in much early computer programming. And equally simple to demonstrate that, if it were not rectified, a usage that worked well when only twentieth century dates were being processed would cause serious problems when twenty-first century dates were involved. Now CAGW: where’s the equivalent real-world evidence that (a) mankind’s GHG emissions are the main cause of recent temperature increases and (b) that further such emissions will cause dangerous, probably catastrophic, environmental damage? Answer: none has been demonstrated yet.
Y2K was almost wholly fixed within about 4 years at a cost that was a small proportion of organisations’ IT budgets. Fixing it did not impact the public. It had no political implications. In utter contrast, CAGW has been going for over 25 years and is set to continue for many years to come. It’s costing many trillions of dollars. It’s hugely damaging to people throughout the world: in the developed West where, for example, fuel costs are rocketing, jobs are being lost and the environment trashed by “renewable” energy projects and in the undeveloped world where, for example, people are being denied the basic benefits of cheap, reliable power and famine is exacerbated by biofuel cultivation. It’s a hugely political issue – with unelected activist groups at the heart of government and increasingly costly, damaging and intrusive national and international legislation affecting the lives of many millions of people.
Y2K no different from CAGW? Er … no, I don’t think so.