This will be a top post for a day or two, new posts appear below. For those waiting…PAYPAL is now available
I’m participating in this, as are some other well known climate skeptics. The producer (Australia’s video pundit Topher Field) has 4 weeks (28 days) to get it funded in IndieGoGo. I ask your help to make it happen. Note, I have no financial interest in this film, I’m merely one of the people to be interviewed. Thanks – Anthony
UPDATE from Topher:
What an incredible initial response! Thank you so much to everyone who has donated!
Paypal WILL be available soon (unless something goes horribly wrong). We are awaiting final confirmation from Paypal that our account is 100% set up and then we will enable Paypal donations.
UPDATE2: Topher responds to questions in this thread in comments, jump here
50-to-1 has the potential to shift the climate debate for good!
Watch the video to see how, or read on!
What if we could show you that trying to ‘stop’ climate change is 50 times more expensive than adapting to it? And what if we could prove it using numbers and formulas accepted by the IPCC, CRU and other ‘consensus’ bodies? Well that’s exactly what 50-to-1 does.
The original calculations were done by Lord Christopher Monckton who has since presented his conclusions to audiences of scientists, economists and mathematicians all over the world. You can see the calculations and a FULL LIST OF SOURCES here: 50 to 1 calculations and sources
Lord Monckton has now approached me to take the above and present it in a video and web package suitable for mass consumption on the internet. If we can successfully help the general public to understand the futility of ‘stopping’ climate change and the relative value of adapting, then we can stop wasting money on useless schemes and start putting our money where it will ACTUALLY make a difference.
The 50 to 1 project is designed to get this message to the general public in three different, complimentary ways:
1. A 7 minute video. This video is designed to be fun, easily understood and contain everything you need to know in one tight and beautifully produced package. This 7 minute video is the centrepiece of the project. It’s designed to be enjoyable, informative and SHORT enough that people will watch it and then pass it on via email and social media. This in turn will encourage people who want to know more to go to…
2. … The 50 to 1 website. The website will host the video and more importantly will contain ALL the references for ALL the information contained in the video (see the link above for an example). Anyone who wants to fact-check or dispute the video will have open access to all our sources so they can see for themselves that the conclusions drawn in ’50 to 1′ are consistent with the science as understood by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For those who really want to go deep into the issue and wrap their head around the current state of climate economics the website will also host…
3. … Expert Interviews. So far we have 7 confirmed interviewees, Former President Vaclav Klaus, Prof Henry Ergas, Prof Fred Singer, Anthony Watts, Prof David Evans, Christopher Essex, and Joanne Nova . Whilst excerpts of the interviews will be used in the 7 minute video, the real value is that we will be spending 30 minutes to 1 hour with each of them (so 3.5+ hours combined run time!) and the full interview with each of these internationally respected experts will be available on the 50-to-1 website as they share their thoughts and perspectives on climate change and in particular policy responses such as carbon taxes and trading schemes.
Each part of the 3 part structure is designed to work together, attracting people with the professionally produced, fun, funny and engaging 7 minute video, and then allowing them to fact check and explore on the website and discover for themselves through the interviews the true cost of ‘stopping’ climate change… which is 50 times more than adapting!
50 to 1 cuts across all the noise and fury surrounding the ‘climate debate’ and gets right to the point: Even if the IPCC is right, and even if climate change IS happening and it IS caused by man, we are STILL better off adapting to it as it happens than we are trying to ‘stop’ it. ‘Action’ is 50 times more expensive than ‘adaptation’, and that’s a conclusion which is derived directly from the IPCC’s own predictions and formulae!
This video, website and interview combination is a game-changer and could radically shift the climate debate. But it will only have an impact if a large number of people watch the video. The video needs to be so fun, fast paced and visually engaging that people will not only watch it, but also pass it on for their friends to watch. 7 minutes is an ideal length because it’s short enough to keep people’s attention, whilst being long enough for us to pack in all the information required to understand the maths and economics behind 50 to 1. It’s effectively a short film which mixes the presentation of the maths and formulae with animations to illustrate every step along the way AND snippets of interviews with internationally respected experts lending the weight of their professional opinions to the subject.
President Vaclav Klaus, Professor Henry Ergas, Professor Fred Singer, Anthony Watts, Professor David Evans, Christopher Essex, and Joanne Nova have all agreed to be interviewed and we are still waiting to hear back from a few others. Traveling with a production crew (to North America and Europe and back as well as around Australia) to get the interviews, as well as studio filming, editing, animating, colour grading and audio sweetening costs money. That’s why I need your help.
The 50 to 1 project has the potential to shift the climate debate for good. It has the potential to undermine political attempts to impose more taxes, stupid subsidies and the myriad of ‘green schemes’ which we’ve seen spring up in the last decade or so. It has the potential to save us all a small fortune in years to come if we can totally undermine public support for ‘Action’ on climate change and shift the focus instead to adaptation as required.
I’ve enlisted the help of an award winning production company here in Melbourne Australia to ensure the highest possible standard of production. All up we’ve calculated a budget (including all the travel etc) of $155,000 to do everything properly, although we can scrape by with less if we cut a few corners, potentially as little as $130,000, but any less than that and it will start to cost us money rather than enable us to pay our bills!
Your donation will help us to reach our minimum budget and once we get there it will be ‘game on’ and we will be able to get cracking and make 50-to-1 a reality.
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/50-to-1-project-the-true-cost-of-action-on-climate-change
Twitter Share Shortlink: http://igg.me/at/50to1
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Aren’t you a little embarrassed by how childish the ‘backup calculations’ provided by Monckton are?
MieScatter:
At May 4, 2013 at 3:14 am you ask
I can only answer for myself, and the answer is NO.
But I am embarrassed for someone who would ask your silly question, and you have my sympathy.
Richard
Monckton of Brenchley says:
May 4, 2013 at 12:40 am
Many commenters continue to struggle with the notion of my accepting the IPCC’s central climatological estimates for the sake of argument. The worst that can happen if anyone actually believes that in adopting the IPCC’s position for the sake of argument I have adopted it altogether is that my argument that even on the basis of the IPCC’s own estimates it is 50 times costlier to mitigate today than to adapt the day after tomorrow will be seen to have still greater force.
Should we have to read your mind in a seven minute film? If it is made clear first of all that there is no problem, that the IPCC has created the illusion of AGW by faking “the consensus of climate scientists”? As you succinctly pointed out some time ago when showing that Santer admitted he had cooked the 95 report by excising the real consensus of the climate scientists that there was no AGW discernible*.
If you first informed that Houghton brought in Santer to re-write the report so as to fraudulently claim through the ‘authority’ of the IPCC that AGW was a fact when it clearly was not and the science has been corrupted ever since by the IPCC, then who wouldn’t continue to listen to the rest, however entrenched they were in the fake fisics memes of anthropogenic global warming?
Which was relaunched as “climate change” because the charlatans knew there was no global warming..
*http://larouchepac.com/node/12823
.IPCC’s Santer Admits Fraud
December 18, 2009 • 10:16AM
“Ben Santer, a climate researcher and lead IPCC author of Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC Working Group I Report, admitted last night on Jesse Ventura’s Conspiracy Theory national TV show, that he had deleted sections of the IPCC chapter which stated that humans were not responsible for climate change. Accusing Santer of altering opinions in the IPCC report that disagreed with the man-made thesis behind climate change, Lord Monckton told the program, “In comes Santer and re-writes it for them, after the scientists have sent in their finalized draft, and that finalized draft said at five different places, there is no discernable human effect on global temperature — I’ve seen a copy of this — Santer went through, crossed out all of those, and substituted a new conclusion, and this has been the official conclusion ever since.””
Then follow with the milk sop of 50 to 1.
That will certainly give them a solid first step into exploring the science corruption promoted by the IPCC and from this promoted by all the once great science bodies now in control of the same agenda which informed Houghton and the IPCC contrived.
@ur momisugly cwon14 says: And others.
May 3, 2013 at 1:22 pm
“This isn’t a proportional reaction to what the rational world is up against.”
———————————————————————————————————————–
No, it’s not.
This, apart from rationality, which is an expression of a capacity, is about Humanity, Morality, and Values.
On the one hand, there is an anti-Human instinct, expressed in AGW, incorporating a division between those whose intent is to place themselves in a position of supremacy over humanity to satisfy their own demands, and who relentlessly abuse the very characteristics that define humanity to achieve this, by a limitless betrayal of trust: dishonesty, deceit and manouvering.
On the other hand, there are the things they abuse, and the coherence, meaning and dignity they reflect and sustain: which is called Humanity.
It is a choice between Good and Evil.
These have not disappeared, not become irrelevant, are not a lifestyle option, are not an abstraction, are not the creation of any religion, and despite being obscured, and attempts to dissect, deny, traduce and inhabit by those who are the enemy of Humanity, are unchanged, irreducible, and immutable.
But this issue, like all others, is multifaceted: from its motivations to the details of its expression.
Whilst the core of what is involved, and what is at stake, should not only not be put to one side, or allowed to be mitigated for apparent convenience, excuses, or rationales dressed as reasonableness – it must increasingly come to the fore and be the ultimate determinant and judgement – dealing with manifestations is also required.
This is, in part, what this video seeks to do. It cannot be the totality of response, or what it advances be the template for change. It can form part of that however.
Such a video does not preclude responses from a different base. If successful, it will form part of a reconstruction of reality which is essential.
Whilst some will focus on this, at the moment, others must focus on the deeper issues, whether they be science itself, and the place of this in it, and what it says about the expectations and practices of science, or similar that can be claimed as authority to gain authority, through to what is right or wrong, what is Human, and what is not.
These things cannot be secondary, they are all intimately linked, inseparably linked, and can, when the air is made clearer, and things can be seen for what they, come together to allow the properly integrated form they should be.
Rather than see this as a distraction, or accommodation, it should be seen as part of allowing a unified and meaningful position, one that can be shared by all who define themselves as Human.
Proponents of this have usurped Human morality: this is the greatest travesty.
People should have a rage, and it should be maintained and increased. The real, defining, issue is one of Human values and behaviour. Those that are at odds with that must be confronted directly with that. And morality and values reclaimed from those who have perverted them.
@Greg House says:
May 3, 2013 at 1:19 pm
“There is no reason to believe, that it can “come across very clearly that the IPCC is untrustworthy” on economic issues, because nobody has presented anything scientific that proves that point.”
———————————————————————————————————————-
That the IPCC is untrustworthy is established. It is the very spawn of that.
You have revealed yourself.
You are a creature a deceit.
An abuse of human trust.
Read my post of 4.02am above.
It describes you. You are an offense to all things of real value.
richardscourtney says:
May 3, 2013 at 7:56 am
“Adaptation” and “The precautionary principle” are retreat and warehouse actions of the warming movement. If centrally planned it is exactly the sort of disease we should be trying to eradicate on a global basis. Pandering to IPCC authority is exactly the wrong way to go. AGW fear politics has to die and there is no reason to throw it a life line by accepting IPCC figures that are born of a corrupt academic and political agendas they propagated.
I respect Lord Monckton but the focus should remain on the political contrivance of the warming community and the fundamental political corrupt core that the movement represents. AR4 included the word “significant” to describe human impact and that was quickly followed by labeling dissent “holocaust deniers”. Lord Monckton is certainly on “blacklist” if for what ever reason climate change fever might swing back into the extreme globally. Slated for trials and execution in the name of the “cause”.
This isn’t the best way to respond to Greenshirt terror politics tacitly supported by the IPCC and “consensus” core.
I continue to suspect the people who need to see this will not watch. If they do, they will dismiss the math as tricky skeptic math, not what the “scientists” know….
What about a tv series, plus availability on YouTube, in a debate format. Every week an expert skeptic on an aspect of the problem will debate a “climate scientist.” Citizen scientists would be encouraged to participate…. The AGW “climate scientists” won’t debate? Ok. List the credentials of all the ones invited to participate and make an honest effort to portray their thinking through research papers and news comments. Put a mannequin in the chair.
Next week repeat the exercise with another expert citizen scientist, or Lindzen or Pat Michaels or Fred Singer or…. against yet another mannequin.
Force the engagement the AGW folk refuse to have.
Here’s a list of possible topics I just copied from Cook’s SKS site, with their vapid uninformed rebuttals. Take ’em out, on every subject, not merely cost.
Global Warming & Climate Change Myths
Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says. Click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted by taxonomy, by popularity, in a print-friendly version, with short URLs or with fixed numbers you can use for permanent references.
Climate Myth vs What the Science Says
1 “Climate’s changed before” Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.
2 “It’s the sun” In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions
3 “It’s not bad” Negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health & environment far outweigh any positives.
4 “There is no consensus” 97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.
5 “It’s cooling” The last decade 2000-2009 was the hottest on record.
6 “Models are unreliable” Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.
7 “Temp record is unreliable” The warming trend is the same in rural and urban areas, measured by thermometers and satellites.
8 “Animals and plants can adapt” Global warming will cause mass extinctions of species that cannot adapt on short time scales.
9 “It hasn’t warmed since 1998” For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.
10 “Antarctica is gaining ice” Satellites measure Antarctica losing land ice at an accelerating rate.
11 “Ice age predicted in the 70s” The vast majority of climate papers in the 1970s predicted warming.
12 “CO2 lags temperature” CO2 didn’t initiate warming from past ice ages but it did amplify the warming.
13 “Climate sensitivity is low” Net positive feedback is confirmed by many different lines of evidence.
14 “We’re heading into an ice age” Worry about global warming impacts in the next 100 years, not an ice age in over 10,000 years.
15 “Ocean acidification isn’t serious” Ocean acidification threatens entire marine food chains.
16 “Hockey stick is broken” Recent studies agree that recent global temperatures are unprecedented in the last 1000 years.
17 “Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy” A number of investigations have cleared scientists of any wrongdoing in the media-hyped email incident.
18 “Hurricanes aren’t linked to global warming” There is increasing evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger due to global warming.
19 “Al Gore got it wrong” Al Gore book is quite accurate, and far more accurate than contrarian books.
20 “Glaciers are growing” Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water.
21 “It’s cosmic rays” Cosmic rays show no trend over the last 30 years & have had little impact on recent global warming.
22 “1934 – hottest year on record” 1934 was one of the hottest years in the US, not globally.
23 “It’s freaking cold!” A local cold day has nothing to do with the long-term trend of increasing global temperatures.
24 “Extreme weather isn’t caused by global warming” Extreme weather events are being made more frequent and worse by global warming.
25 “Sea level rise is exaggerated” A variety of different measurements find steadily rising sea levels over the past century.
26 “It’s Urban Heat Island effect” Urban and rural regions show the same warming trend.
27 “Medieval Warm Period was warmer” Globally averaged temperature now is higher than global temperature in medieval times.
28 “Mars is warming” Mars is not warming globally.
29 “Arctic icemelt is a natural cycle” Thick arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid retreat.
30 “Increasing CO2 has little to no effect” The strong CO2 effect has been observed by many different measurements.
31 “Oceans are cooling” The most recent ocean measurements show consistent warming.
32 “It’s a 1500 year cycle” Ancient natural cycles are irrelevant for attributing recent global warming to humans.
33 “Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions” The natural cycle adds and removes CO2 to keep a balance; humans add extra CO2 without removing any.
34 “IPCC is alarmist”
Numerous papers have documented how IPCC predictions are more likely to underestimate the climate response.
35 “Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas”
Rising CO2 increases atmospheric water vapor, which makes global warming much worse.
36 “Polar bear numbers are increasing” Polar bears are in danger of extinction as well as many other species.
37 “CO2 limits will harm the economy”
The benefits of a price on carbon outweigh the costs several times over.
38 “It’s not happening”
There are many lines of evidence indicating global warming is unequivocal.
39 “Greenland was green” Other parts of the earth got colder when Greenland got warmer.
40 “Greenland is gaining ice” Greenland on the whole is losing ice, as confirmed by satellite measurement.
41 “CO2 is not a pollutant”
Through its impacts on the climate, CO2 presents a danger to public health and welfare, and thus qualifies as an air pollutant
42 “CO2 is plant food”
The effects of enhanced CO2 on terrestrial plants are variable and complex and dependent on numerous factors
43 “Other planets are warming” Mars and Jupiter are not warming, and anyway the sun has recently been cooling slightly.
44 “Arctic sea ice has recovered” Thick arctic sea ice is in rapid retreat.
45 “There’s no empirical evidence” There are multiple lines of direct observations that humans are causing global warming.
46 “We’re coming out of the Little Ice Age”
Scientists have determined that the factors which caused the Little Ice Age cooling are not currently causing global warming
47 “There’s no correlation between CO2 and temperature” There is long-term correlation between CO2 and global temperature; other effects are short-term.
48 “It cooled mid-century” Mid-century cooling involved aerosols and is irrelevant for recent global warming.
49 “CO2 was higher in the past” When CO2 was higher in the past, the sun was cooler.
50 “It warmed before 1940 when CO2 was low” Early 20th century warming is due to several causes, including rising CO2.
51 “Global warming stopped in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010, ????”
Global temperature is still rising and 2010 was the hottest recorded.
52 “Satellites show no warming in the troposphere” The most recent satellite data show that the earth as a whole is warming.
53 “It’s aerosols” Aerosols have been masking global warming, which would be worse otherwise.
54 “It’s El Niño” El Nino has no trend and so is not responsible for the trend of global warming.
55 “2009-2010 winter saw record cold spells” A cold day in Chicago in winter has nothing to do with the trend of global warming.
56 “It’s a natural cycle” No known natural forcing fits the fingerprints of observed warming except anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
57 “Mt. Kilimanjaro’s ice loss is due to land use” Most glaciers are in rapid retreat worldwide, notwithstanding a few complicated cases.
58 “There’s no tropospheric hot spot” We see a clear “short-term hot spot” – there’s various evidence for a “long-term hot spot”.
59 “It’s not us” Multiple sets of independent observations find a human fingerprint on climate change.
60 “It’s Pacific Decadal Oscillation” The PDO shows no trend, and therefore the PDO is not responsible for the trend of global warming.
61 “IPCC were wrong about Himalayan glaciers”
Glaciers are in rapid retreat worldwide, despite 1 error in 1 paragraph in a 1000 page IPCC report.
62 “Scientists can’t even predict weather” Weather and climate are different; climate predictions do not need weather detail.
63 “Greenhouse effect has been falsified” The greenhouse effect is standard physics and confirmed by observations.
64 “2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory” The 2nd law of thermodynamics is consistent with the greenhouse effect which is directly observed.
65 “CO2 limits will hurt the poor”
Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change.
66 “The science isn’t settled” That human CO2 is causing global warming is known with high certainty & confirmed by observations.
67 “Clouds provide negative feedback” Evidence is building that net cloud feedback is likely positive and unlikely to be strongly negative.
68 “Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated” Sea level rise is now increasing faster than predicted due to unexpectedly rapid ice melting.
69 “It’s the ocean” The oceans are warming and moreover are becoming more acidic, threatening the food chain.
70 “IPCC were wrong about Amazon rainforests” The IPCC statement on Amazon rainforests was correct, and was incorrectly reported in some media.
71 “Corals are resilient to bleaching” Globally about 1% of coral is dying out each year.
72 “Volcanoes emit more CO2 than humans” Humans emit 100 times more CO2 than volcanoes.
73 “CO2 effect is saturated” Direct measurements find that rising CO2 is trapping more heat.
74 “Greenland ice sheet won’t collapse” When Greenland was 3 to 5 degrees C warmer than today, a large portion of the Ice Sheet melted.
75 “CO2 is just a trace gas” Many substances are dangerous even in trace amounts; what really matters is the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
76 “It’s methane” Methane plays a minor role in global warming but could get much worse if permafrost starts to melt.
77 “CO2 has a short residence time” Excess CO2 from human emissions has a long residence time of over 100 years
78 “CO2 measurements are suspect” CO2 levels are measured by hundreds of stations across the globe, all reporting the same trend.
79 “Humidity is falling” Multiple lines of independent evidence indicate humidity is rising and provides positive feedback.
80 “500 scientists refute the consensus” Around 97% of climate experts agree that humans are causing global warming.
81 “Neptune is warming” And the sun is cooling.
82 “Springs aren’t advancing” Hundreds of flowers across the UK are flowering earlier now than any time in 250 years.
83 “Jupiter is warming” Jupiter is not warming, and anyway the sun is cooling.
84 “It’s land use” Land use plays a minor role in climate change, although carbon sequestration may help to mitigate.
85 “Scientists tried to ‘hide the decline’ in global temperature” The ‘decline’ refers to a decline in northern tree-rings, not global temperature, and is openly discussed in papers and the IPCC reports.
86 “CO2 is not increasing” CO2 is increasing rapidly, and is reaching levels not seen on the earth for millions of years.
87 “Record snowfall disproves global warming” Warming leads to increased evaporation and precipitation, which falls as increased snow in winter.
88 “They changed the name from global warming to climate change” ‘Global warming’ and ‘climate change’ mean different things and have both been used for decades.
89 “Solar Cycle Length proves its the sun” The sun has not warmed since 1970 and so cannot be driving global warming.
90 “CO2 is coming from the ocean” The ocean is absorbing massive amounts of CO2, and is becoming more acidic as a result.
91 “IPCC overestimate temperature rise” Monckton used the IPCC equation in an inappropriate manner.
92 “Pluto is warming” And the sun has been recently cooling.
93 “CO2 is not the only driver of climate” Theory, models and direct measurement confirm CO2 is currently the main driver of climate change.
94 “Peer review process was corrupted” An Independent Review concluded that CRU’s actions were normal and didn’t threaten the integrity of peer review.
95 “Arctic was warmer in 1940”
The actual data show high northern latitudes are warmer today than in 1940.
96 “Southern sea ice is increasing” Antarctic sea ice has grown in recent decades despite the Southern Ocean warming at the same time.
97 “CO2 limits will make little difference”
If every nation agrees to limit CO2 emissions, we can achieve significant cuts on a global scale.
98 “Sea level rise is decelerating”
Global sea level data shows that sea level rise has been increasing since 1880 while future sea level rise predictions are based on physics, not statistics.
99 “Renewable energy is too expensive”
When you account for all of the costs associated with burning coal and other fossil fuels, like air pollution and health effects, in reality they are significantly more expensive than most renewable energy sources.
100 “It’s microsite influences” Microsite influences on temperature changes are minimal; good and bad sites show the same trend.
101 “Phil Jones says no global warming since 1995” Phil Jones was misquoted.
102 “Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate” Humans are small but powerful, and human CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
103 “Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity” Lindzen and Choi’s paper is viewed as unacceptably flawed by other climate scientists.
104 “Dropped stations introduce warming bias” If the dropped stations had been kept, the temperature would actually be slightly higher.
105 “It’s too hard” Scientific studies have determined that current technology is sufficient to reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough to avoid dangerous climate change.
106 “It’s not urgent”
A large amount of warming is delayed, and if we don’t act now we could pass tipping points.
107 “It’s albedo” Albedo change in the Arctic, due to receding ice, is increasing global warming.
108 “Tree-rings diverge from temperature after 1960” This is a detail that is complex, local, and irrelevant to the observed global warming trend.
109 “It’s soot”
Soot stays in the atmosphere for days to weeks; carbon dioxide causes warming for centuries.
110 “Hansen’s 1988 prediction was wrong”
Jim Hansen had several possible scenarios; his mid-level scenario B was right.
111 “Roy Spencer finds negative feedback” Spencer’s model is too simple, excluding important factors like ocean dynamics and treats cloud feedbacks as forcings.
112 “It’s global brightening” This is a complex aerosol effect with unclear temperature significance.
113 “Arctic sea ice loss is matched by Antarctic sea ice gain” Arctic sea ice loss is three times greater than Antarctic sea ice gain.
114 “It’s a climate regime shift” There is no evidence that climate has chaotic “regimes” on a long-term basis.
115 “Earth hasn’t warmed as much as expected” This argument ignores the cooling effect of aerosols and the planet’s thermal inertia.
116 “Solar cycles cause global warming” Over recent decades, the sun has been slightly cooling & is irrelevant to recent global warming.
117 “Less than half of published scientists endorse global warming” Around 97% of climate experts agree that humans are causing global warming.
118 “Ice isn’t melting”
Arctic sea ice has shrunk by an area equal to Western Australia, and summer or multi-year sea ice might be all gone within a decade.
119 “Over 31,000 scientists signed the OISM Petition Project” The ‘OISM petition’ was signed by only a few climatologists.
120 “IPCC ‘disappeared’ the Medieval Warm Period”
The IPCC simply updated their temperature history graphs to show the best data available at the time.
121 “Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted” Weather is chaotic but climate is driven by Earth’s energy imbalance, which is more predictable.
122 “It’s ozone” Ozone has only a small effect.
123 “Freedom of Information (FOI) requests were ignored” An independent inquiry found CRU is a small research unit with limited resources and their rigour and honesty are not in doubt.
124 “The IPCC consensus is phoney”
113 nations signed onto the 2007 IPCC report, which is simply a summary of the current body of climate science evidence
125 “Sea level is not rising” The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs contradicted by observations.
126 “Climate ‘Skeptics’ are like Galileo” Modern scientists, not anti-science skeptics, follow in Galileo’s footsteps.
127 “Tuvalu sea level isn’t rising” Tuvalu sea level is rising 3 times larger than the global average.
128 “A drop in volcanic activity caused warming” Volcanoes have had no warming effect in recent global warming – if anything, a cooling effect.
129 “Trenberth can’t account for the lack of warming” Trenberth is talking about the details of energy flow, not whether global warming is happening.
130 “Renewables can’t provide baseload power”
A number of renewable sources already do provide baseload power, and we don’t need renewables to provide a large percentage of baseload power immediately.
131 “Ice Sheet losses are overestimated” A number of independent measurements find extensive ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland.
132 “CRU tampered with temperature data” An independent inquiry went back to primary data sources and were able to replicate CRU’s results.
133 “Naomi Oreskes’ study on consensus was flawed” Benny Peiser, the Oreskes critic, retracted his criticism.
134 “Melting ice isn’t warming the Arctic” Melting ice leads to more sunlight being absorbed by water, thus heating the Arctic.
135 “Breathing contributes to CO2 buildup” By breathing out, we are simply returning to the air the same CO2 that was there to begin with.
136 “Satellite error inflated Great Lakes temperatures” Temperature errors in the Great Lakes region are not used in any global temperature records.
137 “Soares finds lack of correlation between CO2 and temperature” Soares looks at short-term trends which are swamped by natural variations while ignoring the long-term correlation.
138 “We’re heading into cooling” There is no scientific basis for claims that the planet will begin to cool in the near future.
139 “Murry Salby finds CO2 rise is natural” Multiple lines of evidence make it very clear that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is due to human emissions.
140 “CO2 emissions do not correlate with CO2 concentration” That humans are causing the rise in atmospheric CO2 is confirmed by multiple isotopic analyses.
141 “The sun is getting hotter” The sun has just had the deepest solar minimum in 100 years.
142 “It’s waste heat” Greenhouse warming is adding 100 times more heat to the climate than waste heat.
143 “Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming” This possibility just means that future global warming could be even worse.
144 “It warmed just as fast in 1860-1880 and 1910-1940” The warming trend over 1970 to 2001 is greater than warming from both 1860 to 1880 and 1910 to 1940.
145 “An exponential increase in CO2 will result in a linear increase in temperature” CO2 levels are rising so fast that unless we decrease emissions, global warming will accelerate this century.
146 “Record high snow cover was set in winter 2008/2009” Winter snow cover in 2008/2009 was average while the long-term trend in spring, summer, and annual snow cover is rapid decline.
147 “Mauna Loa is a volcano” The global trend is calculated from hundreds of CO2 measuring stations and confirmed by satellites.
148 “Venus doesn’t have a runaway greenhouse effect”
Venus very likely underwent a runaway or ‘moist’ greenhouse phase earlier in its history, and today is kept hot by a dense CO2 atmosphere.
149 “Antarctica is too cold to lose ice” Glaciers are sliding faster into the ocean because ice shelves are thinning due to warming oceans.
150 “Positive feedback means runaway warming” Positive feedback won’t lead to runaway warming; diminishing returns on feedback cycles limit the amplification.
151 “Skeptics were kept out of the IPCC?” Official records, Editors and emails suggest CRU scientists acted in the spirit if not the letter of IPCC rules.
152 “Water levels correlate with sunspots” This detail is irrelevant to the observation of global warming caused by humans.
153 “CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician” The sun was much cooler during the Ordovician.
154 “CO2 increase is natural, not human-caused” Many lines of evidence, including simple accounting, demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to human fossil fuel burning.
155 “It’s CFCs” CFCs contribute at a small level.
156 “Scientists retracted claim that sea levels are rising” The Siddall 2009 paper was retracted because its predicted sea level rise was too low.
157 “Warming causes CO2 rise” Recent warming is due to rising CO2.
158 “Coral atolls grow as sea levels rise” Thousands of coral atolls have “drowned” when unable to grow fast enough to survive at sea level.
159 “It’s internal variability”
Internal variability can only account for small amounts of warming and cooling over periods of decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it cannot account for the global warming over the past century.
160 “Greenland has only lost a tiny fraction of its ice mass” Greenland’s ice loss is accelerating & will add metres of sea level rise in upcoming centuries.
161 “DMI show cooling Arctic” While summer maximums have showed little trend, the annual average Arctic temperature has risen sharply in recent decades.
162 “Renewable energy investment kills jobs” Investment in renewable energy creates more jobs than investment in fossil fuel energy.
163 “CO2 limits won’t cool the planet” CO2 limits won’t cool the planet, but they can make the difference between continued accelerating global warming to catastrophic levels vs. slowing and eventually stopping the warming at hopefully safe levels
164 “Royal Society embraces skepticism” The Royal Society still strongly state that human activity is the dominant cause of global warming.
165 “It’s only a few degrees” A few degrees of global warming has a huge impact on ice sheets, sea levels and other aspects of climate.
166 “It’s satellite microwave transmissions” Satellite transmissions are extremely small and irrelevant.
167 “CO2 only causes 35% of global warming”
CO2 and corresponding water vapor feedback are the biggest cause of global warming.
168 “Sea level fell in 2010” The temporary drop in sea level in 2010 was due to intense land flooding caused by a strong La Nina.
169 “Arctic sea ice extent was lower in the past”
Current Arctic sea ice extent is the lowest in the past several thousand years.
170 “We didn’t have global warming during the Industrial Revolution” CO2 emissions were much smaller 100 years ago.
171 “Ljungqvist broke the hockey stick”
Ljungqvist’s temperature reconstruction is very similar to other reconstructions by Moberg and Mann.
172 “Hansen predicted the West Side Highway would be underwater”
Hansen was speculating on changes that might happen if CO2 doubled.
173 “Removing all CO2 would make little difference” Removing CO2 would cause most water in the air to rain out and cancel most of the greenhouse effect.
174 “Postma disproved the greenhouse effect” Postma’s model contains many simple errors; in no way does Postma undermine the existence or necessity of the greenhouse effect.
Many thanks to Dr. Jan Dash, Director of the UU-UNO’s Climate Portal for writing many of the one line responses in ‘What the Science Says’, with some edits by John Cook.
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The show format would be inexpensive — but powerful. Possibly, something along the lines of William Buckley’s “Firing Line,” or the fine PBS series, “The Advocates,” where each team, in debate format had an “advocate,” plus two expert witnesses who were questioned and cross-examined. (That format might be a bit difficult with a bunch of mannequins…. but… smile…)
It is important to deal with the absurdity of the Team’s nonsense arguments, which never engage….. Like Marcott’s carefully worded FAQ in response to nothing germane which McIntyre questioned, but…. then, in time, the problem goes away. Gleick is back. Mann is esteemed. It doesn’t change — without head to head engagement and, if they won’t do it themselves, use their words, their interviews….. Mann’s disgusting TedTalks lecture…. There’s fodder there to be refuted. And, if they don’t like what happens, invite them to engage. And keep inviting them. That will wake up the public. ….Lady in Red
The curious responses of so many commenters here that this idea of focusing on the cost of adaptation versus the cost of attempting to block climate change is to throw a life-line to the IPCC and global warmists in general, is cause for concern. Surely it is obvious that it does no such thing. Surely it is obvious that to say “even if the IPCC is right about CO2 and man-made global warming, it will be far cheaper to adapt than to suppress CO2 production” does not help the IPCC or warmists. What it does is destroy their entire case for spending large sums of money on reduction of CO2 emissions.
However, as so many commenters seem to think it does help the IPCC and warmists, it will be very important in the construction of the 50 to 1 argument, to explain in very simple terms why it does not. I will make no attempt to set out how this should be done as it is self-evident, but strongly advise the authors of the project to take on board how resistant some people obviously are to the simple logic of the case.
cwon14:
Thankyou for the reply to me which you provide at May 4, 2013 at 4:54 am.
Please be assured that I am fully aware of “Greenshirt terror tactics” having been a recipient of them for many years.
It seems that you and I are united on the objectives and on the reasons for them. But we disagree on the tactics. OK. I hear that, but – as I explained in my posts at May 2, 2013 at 12:05 pm and May 3, 2013 at 7:56 am (which you have replied) – I think the video is the ‘right way to go’.
For the benefit of others I provide links which jump to my explanations.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/02/help-launch-climate-skeptic-film-project-50-to-1/#comment-1294907
and
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/02/help-launch-climate-skeptic-film-project-50-to-1/#comment-1296061
Obviously, I and those who think like me could be wrong. But be assured that we are sincere, and there is nothing to lose by giving this video a chance.
Richard
Simply claiming that ten-year C/B analysis can be extended indefinitely does not make it true.
The rising cost of adaptation is very gradual. The effects of any mitigation are also gradual. The costs of mitigation might be longterm, but they will be nearly instantaneously apparent. I don’t think anyone on the “warmist” side who has any idea what they are talking about would be surprised that ten-year costs of mitigation might exceed adaptation. I personally would have assumed it was true already, and it certainly hasn’t made me worry about warming any less.
I once attended a lecture by a traveling creationist speaker at a small church in Oklahoma. In it, he talked about Jurassic Park. He said Jurassic Park was Lucifer’s way of making kids love Charles Darwin. And so he set about debunking the science behind the movie(not the book, I don’t think he was a reader). The audience ate it up. The guy looked smart to them. I was young, about 15, but I still thought it was amusing, as did most of my friends. Why? Because every advocate of keeping creationism away from schools already knew that Jurassic Park was fiction.
He was arguing against a point nobody was making.
Likewise, this film will be arguing against a point nobody is making. It will only make for easy cannon fodder in the greater debate. If you want me to believe that a complete anti-regulatory stance is reasonable, you’re going to have to disprove the points that actually are being made, not the scarecrows you set up.
Here is an excellent, easy to understand, expose on the lunacy of cap and trade, created years ago by “greenie” Annie Leonard:
http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-cap-trade/
It has not made a dent. …..Lady in Red
Ryan:
re your post at May 4, 2013 at 6:55 am.
If you choose to spend money preventing goblins from hiding under your bed then feel free to do so. But don’t demand that I pay for your precautions against the threat which you imagine.
Similarly, for your fears about imagined AGW.
Richard
I don’t think this is really the thread to discuss who is imagining threats. This is about a video debunking things that nobody is saying.
Although I expect the ’50-to-1′ project about the economic costs of harm from burning fossil fuels will be stimulating to the ongoing climate dialog, it contains a logically unjustifiable acceptance of the fundamentally false premise of harmfulness .
I recommend to include a introductory building block reference to the following central discussion in the ’50-to-1′ economic cost project and then I will enthusiastically support it.
The missing fundamental concept in the ’50-to-1′ project, in my thinking, is that burning fossil fuel is not reasonably shown to have a net harmful impact to life. Again, please include that concept . . . make a ~9 minute video instead of a 7 min video.
The dialog continues . . .
John
Ryan:
At May 4, 2013 at 7:35 am you write in total
Bollocks!
At May 4, 2013 at 6:55 am you wrote a long-winded whinge about how we now need to take expensive actions to mitigate imagined effects of AGW.
At May 4, 2013 at 7:12 am I refuted that saying if you want to pay to mitigate the threats you imagine then you pay but don’t force me to pay.
You have replied with the post I am answering.
The issue we are discussing is a video to promote adaptation instead of the much more expensive mitigation of future and imagined AGW. Climate changes naturally – it always has and always will – so adaptation will occur whether or not AGW becomes a discernible effect on climate.
Mitigation requires costs which must be met now and will not be needed unless your fears of AGW eventually turn out to have some substance.
You pay if you want to. I will support the video and its message.
Richard
I didn’t write anything long-winded, lol. And I certainly wasn’t attempting to advocate for climate action. I’m just saying that the central claim of the video is one that many non-conspiracy individuals will agree with.
The reaction from the left to this video will be summed up in one word:
Duh.
Ryan says he is not surprised at the result of my calculation demonstrating that over a ten-year term the cost of attempting to mitigate global warming at the rate predicted by the IPCC is 50 times greater than that of attempting to mitigate it over a century. He has misunderstood the extent to which I have bent over backward to give as much advantage as possible to those who believe we should mitigate today rather than adapting the day after tomorrow. I have assumed that, proportionately, the same cost will arise from adapting to ten years’ predicted warming as the cost of adapting to a century’s predicted warming: i.e., 1.5% of GDP. In practice, up to 1-2 K warming this century will be harmless and beneficial.
I have studied a shorter period than a century because reasonably good figures are available for the ten-year Australian CO2 tax. However, mitigating 3 K warming over a century will cost no less, as a percentage of global centennial GDP per Kelvin mitigated, than mitigating 1/6 K warming over a decade. Welcome to the concept of mitigation cost-effectiveness, which is well understood in economics.
To those who are still do not understand the notion of accepting an opponent’s premise for the sake of argument, let me explain how Socratic elenchus works. One begins by inviting one’s opponent to confirm that he believes in a premise of his own: here, the premise that it is necessary to prevent 3 K warming this century. One then invites him to accept various conclusions drawn from his own premise, such as the conclusion that adapting to 3 K warming this century will cost 1.5% of global GDP.
Next, one invites the opponent to accept a premise of one’s own – a premise with which no rational person would be expected to disagree. In the present argument, one might put forward the premise that it would not be cost-effective to mitigate global warming today if the cost of mitigation today significantly exceeded that of adaptation the day after tomorrow. Most rational people would accept that.
One then draws conclusions from one’s own premise – in the present argument, a step-by-step determination of the cost of mitigating warming today. The conclusion is that it is one or two orders of magnitude more expensive and less cost-effective to mitigate today than to adapt tomorrow. The opponent is then invited to decide which premise to abandon – the opponent’s premise that it is necessary to prevent 3 K warming this century, or the premise that it would not be cost-effective to mitigate global warming today if the cost of mitigation significantly exceeded that of adaptation.
To those who say the calculations are too simple, I respond by pointing out that the climatological equations used by the IPCC are themselves simple – indeed, the President of the World Federation of Scientists was surprised at how simple they were. If you would like more complexity at the climatological end, then that is a matter for the IPCC, not for me. Inter-temporal economic analysis is not particularly complex either. And, as my forthcoming paper points out, greater complexity in the analysis would not much alter the conclusion, save that removing most of the simplifications would worsen the cost/benefit ratio still further.
Finally, there are those who say they would prefer other videos to be made. Well, just go to YouTube and search for Monckton: you will find hundreds. And if you want other videos made, it’s a free country (well, it was), so go ahead and make them. Don’t whine from the sidelines. If you can do better, just do it.
I have chosen the economic argument because it is straightforward, it is robust, it does not even challenge the scientific conclusions of the usual suspects, and it leaves remarkably little wriggle-room even for the most dishonest climate-extremist, which is why the only real kickback here has come from the usual trolls who have nothing better to do with their time than whine. The effect of these calculations on audiences – particularly scientific, academic and political audiences – is overwhelming. I take the audience step by step through the calculations, so they can see exactly how everything is done. They begin to laugh, as the World Federation of Scientists did, when I reveal that having rather than not having Australia’s CO2 tax would reduce global CO2 emissions at the end of the ten-year term from the IPCC’s projected 410 ppmv to – wait for it – 409.988.
They laugh again when they learn that the warming mitigated – all of 1/20,000 K – is only 1/1000 of the minimum global temperature change we can measure, so that even if the tax succeeded we’d have no means of measuring that it had.
They gasp when they realize every man, woman and child on Earth would have to contribute $77,000 to prevent just 1/6 K warming over the ten-year term of Australia’s CO2 tax. And it’s all over when I hit them with the punch-line: that it’s 50 times more expensive and less cost-effective to mitigate today than to adapt the day after tomorrow.
The video is timed to appear at the same time as the paper comes out. In that way, those who find that equations are not easy to follow will have a brilliantly clear explanation of the point that is being made. It is worth making the effort to explain published scientific results in simple terms. The other side have been doing it for years. Why should we not learn from them and do it too?
Wasn’t this concept more or less the basis of Bjorn Lomborg’s book 10-12 years ago? It got good coverage and sales, and he was on talk shows, etc., but did it change the attitude of the warmists or the great unwashed? These are the same folks who will insist that “you can’t put a price on human life.” I’d like to contribute if I saw something really new here, but I think it would be a big mistake to give any ground on global warming as being permanent or man-caused, especially with the film being promoted as a game-changer through WUWT. I would expect a barrage of out-of-context attacks regardless of how meticulously it was put together. Mother Nature seems to be clearing it up anyway, which is really the only way we will win the argument politically.
I wish only that you were correct and that Mother Nature would prove the alarmists wrong. We are all human and constantly deny the evidence of our own eyes – while we speak of the sun rising and setting we know that it is the earth rotating; while we assume a flat earth when driving a car, we adopt the idea of a globe when navigating by sea or air.
I expect that all the nonsense apparatus that AGW has prompted will remain in place long after the alarmists are dead and gone. Cap and trade may die the death but carbon taxes will take its place to justify the inordinate costs of renewables. Energy prices will remain so high that homes will have to be muffled up in double glazing and roof insulation to keep us warm. There will be smart meters, smart appliances and energy rationing ‘in the interest of generations to come’ and lots of people will make lots of money although there is no need for high energy prices and no need to save the planet from AGW. Coal. oil and gas in various forms will be there for the taking long after man has vacated the planet.
The assumption that underlies all this rubbish about future generations is that they will be illiterate and passive, unable to fend for themselves and entirely dependent on their heritage from the present generation for their survival. Indeed there are signs that some of our descendants are becoming Eloi and others Morlocks. Good luck to them!
As soon as Paypal is available, I shall drop my penny in the box, but I doubt that all the huffing and puffing will have the slightest effect while so many are making a living out of this new religion.
Richard Courtenay to Ryan
Very good. This program defeats the last hiding place of the CAGW crowd; THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE that is always trotted out when they run out of arguments. I believe the climate changes, I believe CO2 probably has some small effect, but having just come back from skiing which I have done for over 60 years, I am not very worried about having to adapt a lot. What this project does is kill the Precautionary Principle because it shows how bad and wasteful the idea of the principle is.
Tell these people to go was the Bank of America “Dust Bowl” series. Poor farming practices and a short term change in the weather can wreak havoc. The weather changes we are seeing now are nothing.
The Precautionary Principle must go while we recognize that CO2 is much less of an issue than deforestation in developing countries, overfishing, “true” pollution control and farming practices.
Sorry – go “watch” the Dust Bowl series.
Mr. leBlanc is right that Bjorn Lomborg and others have pointed out that it is not cost-effective to mitigate global warming. Indeed, that – for those who like to defy a millennium of tradition in the philosophy of science by obtaining results by consensus – is the overwhelming opinion in the reviewed literature on climate change economics.
However, until I applied the IPCC’s climatology to the problem directly, no one had realized that it is not just a little bit more expensive to act now than to adapt tomorrow – it is one or two orders of magnitude more expensive. The purpose of the video is to let people know that. The brighter ones will then work out for themselves that they should be shutting down the IPCC and all climate-change spending.
The government troughs are too big and run too deep. The system has become corrupted and even the “bright ones” aren’t balking. The “bright ones” will never shut down the IPCC. Peter Gleick lives, lectures at Oxford and Cambridge. If the “bright ones” don’t even care about that, why try to swim upstream against the IPCC? Go with the flow; get your pension; retire early.
And, the “dumb ones” read SKS. ….Lady in Red
Yep!
Monckton of Brenchley says:
May 4, 2013 at 8:52 am
In the U.S. Lord Monckton we have a term for the Republican Party, “The Stupid Party”. Its meaning has been twisted many times over the decades but an original usage was to describe the tendency of the GOP as being hopelessly logical and principled on a political debate without connecting with a majority and losing based on emotions. It comes to mind as I read your arguments and watch your presentations.
AGW isn’t about science or logic to believers. Media, academia, the “consensus” and even close to half the electorate aren’t making their judgements by anything close to “logic”. Your effort here will at best do no harm but I doubt it will move anything on the margin. Certainly the “consensus” will dismiss it based on the “credentials” monopoly they maintain. Here are the rules “they” are living by;
The rules;
“Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.”
“Never go outside the expertise of your people.”
“Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.”
“Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.”
“Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”
“A good tactic is one your people enjoy.”
“A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.”
“Keep the pressure on. Never let up.”
“The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”
“The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition.”
“If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.”
“The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.”
“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”
You’re clearly misunderstanding Rule #4 by validating the IPCC for them. You’re making a weak Luke-warmer, Precautionary Principle point which fits into their range of meme’s. The warmer’s goal is to control carbon through taxation and regulation rationalized by the basic evil nature of carbon itself. If it’s peoples need to hate “big oil” or self-hatred either emotion is useful to the green advocate. Allowing the basic canard of trace human co2 sensitivity a pass is a failure.
Its skeptics separating logic (science) from the boarder political framework that drives the consensus process and these isolated efforts could be doing more harm than good. We would do better if skeptics crossed the Rubicon and acknowledged the specific political culture that is the global driver of AGW belief. Public awareness of this is what has slowed the AGW movement and flat temperature stats against the asinine claims made in recent decades. Adaptation is just a back-story skeptics should pan.
The fact that this very point is the most discussed in this thread is obvious evidence you are wrong.