From Radio Voice of Russia:
Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: “we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years”
Scientists at Russia’s famous Pulkovo Observatory are convinced that the world is in for a period of global cooling.
Graph by David Archibald
Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.
Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.
“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.
Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.
“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.
Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.
“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.
As Russia steps up efforts to upgrade its icebreaker fleet, new-generation icebreakers are set to arrive in the years to come. No climate changes will thus be able to impede an increase in shipping traffic via the Northern Sea Route.
Read more: http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_04_22/Cooling-in-the-Arctic-what-to-expect/
RockyRoad says:
April 29, 2013 at 2:22 pm
re:Tom in global cooling ain’t gonna get to me Florida says: April 29, 2013 at 1:39 pm
“…. And not that skeptical of stuff we can see and measure–like a decline in solar activity. Of course, call me stupid if you think the sun isn’t the Earth’s heat engine.”
Of course the Sun creates the general climate on Earth, it is the source of life for us. However, addressing the changes in the solar activity is a different discussion. I do believe many commenters fail to make the distinction. Solar activity doesn’t vary enough to account for changes in climate but insolation changes do, orbital variations and obliquity being the most prominent. You can include cloud cover and changes in albedo also. Now of course, if the Sun were to actually really go haywire, well, we couldn’t do anything to change that so why worry over it.
Rob Potter says:
April 29, 2013 at 2:44 pm
“Well, I only see a couple of “I told you so” – and a lot more “yes, but” in these comments, so I think maybe it is your own bias that is being confirmed, Tom.”
My bias is certainly that I am skeptical about everything, especially solar related. I am an avid reader of WUWT solar threads, I enjoy the discussions most of which require me to do some simple research to verify some of the statements and claims. So I will stand by my comment that I do not see how anyone can take one pronouncement from a Russian observatory as if it was the final word.
I see little difference in speculation about a warm future or an impeding ice age. Both are based on equally flawed half-science. I sometimes wonder whether the entrails of today’s computers give any better answer to what lies ahead than do those of chickens of yesteryear.
Much of the discussion here recalls the statement allegedly made by Niels Bohr: ‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’
In my web page “Observatorio ARVAL – Climate Change”, at http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChangeBW.htm
I have two articles by Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov from the Space Research Laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, both have references.
The Russians are major oil exporters. Putin made them say it.
See how easy that is?
And if that fails, there’s always the standby of just moving on to the next world-ending problem that will amazingly have the same solution set as the previous world-ending problem –send in all your money to the government.
Tom In Florida
While I agree changes In TSI are not sufficient to cause dramatic changes, the changes in UV out put are much larger.
UV changes by 50% over the 11 year cycle with spikes up to 200% higher than background.
The mechanism by which this probably drives climate is through altering stratospheric weather via changes in the polar vortex and jet streams. A good area to look into!
Cheers
For What It’s Worth Dept: Back in the days before he became a klimate kook, John Gribbin wrote “The Strangest Star,” a book about solar cycles. According to his reckoning a deep decline in solar activity was supposed to set in around 2025.
Some of us here will be old enough to remember an app from the earliest days of home computers called “biorhythms.” The story went that your physical, emotional and intellectual highs and lows went in cycles that could be predicted according to your date of birth. Lufthansa took this particular piece of woo so seriously that they grounded pilots on days when their cycles were all below average.
@ur momisugly Tom in Florida; you can’t be “skeptical about everything”, and why “especially about solar”? There has to be a starting point. For instance, what factors do you think influence climate most, and why? How do you suppose the Medieval and Roman Warm periods occurred? Or, do you doubt they happened? Perhaps you also doubt the moon landing, and that 9/11 was actually perpetrated by terrorists?
“As Russia steps up efforts to upgrade its icebreaker fleet, new-generation icebreakers are set to arrive in the years to come. No climate changes will thus be able to impede an increase in shipping traffic via the Northern Sea Route.”
Seems optimistic. Breaking the Northern route will be the least of Russia’s worries if we get anywhere near a LIA climate regime.
Dr K.A. Rodgers says:
April 29, 2013 at 3:38 pm
“I see little difference in speculation about a warm future or an impeding ice age. Both are based on equally flawed half-science.”
One of the major differences is this: Generally, global warming improves the condition of man-kind and many other animals. Billions are being spent by various governments to control this very minor ‘problem’ – assuming it is a problem at all. Global cooling, on the other hand, is a different story. Big example is lower food production. We have governments that are essentially wasting taxpayer resources, monetary, societal, and intellectual, on a non-problem and that is leaving us vulnerable – much more so than if the world were to warm.
I can imagine that only a few (Russia and Canada- any others?)would even consider building an ice breaker. An ice maker? well maybe the other 97% would consider that…When the ice cometh, these two countries, both forsakers of the Kyoto Dodo, will be the only ones that will be able to travel in the arctic by sea. Certainly UK will be too busy de-icing its offshore windmills. Germany is likely to build a few eventually, though. Spain is too busy working on its green (gangrene) economy.
http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/vessel-procurement/polar-icebreaker
I have a couple of papers and a conference presentation by a group of Russians (Viktor Ermakov, Viktor Okhlopkov and Yuri Stozhkov ) from about 8 to 10 years ago that set out this idea. They did an fourier analysis of the temperature record, stripped out the likely frequencies and then did a reconstruction. The mechanism they identified was zodiacal dust and its effect on the planets albedo. Its arrival is affected by the solar cycles and solar wind and in turn their effect is distorted periodically by the gravitational influence of SAturn and Jupiter, individually and in conjunction, as I recall.
Fancy that, looking for cycles in the systems of a planet that spins, has an orniting moon, that orbits around a star in c onjunction with a bunch of other planets which also orbit the star at differenet frequencies and affect each other at all sorts of beat frequencies etc etc. (sarc)
Methinks the Russians are making amends for Comrade Lysenko. Good on them and won’t Putin and the Chinese be pissing themselves laughing, watching the might western ‘civilisation’, the world’s self appointed intellectual powerhouse made to look utterly absurd by the arrogance of the AGW alarmists. Finally the Russians get a decent dividend out of all that work in cultivating all those useful idiots. (not sarc – just effing angry)
Solar sunspot activity is at the lowest level since 1900. During the decades of 1880, 1890 and 1900 the average sunspot numbers [NSO] were 45.2, 55.1 and 42.6. During 2000 decade they were 49.6. During the last 10 years the average sunspot number was 29.3. Low solar sunspot numbers seem to correlate with low global surface temperatures especially when ocean and solar cycles are both in sync and declining. Low solar cycles typically come in threes, so it is possible that low sunspot number may exist for several decades into the future. It would appear that we are headed for another Gleissberg cycle type of minimum which happen about every 80-90 years. They are colder than the normal 60 year climate cycle troughs like the one between 1940 and 1970. The last Gleissberg minimums were around 1660-1710, 1790-1810 and 1880-1910.
As the past Gleissberg minimums show ,the winter temperatures will begin to drop rapidly . We will see the start of yet colder winters compared to the 2012/2013 wwinter as early as the next two winters.
Rob JM says:
April 29, 2013 at 3:55 pm
“Tom In Florida
While I agree changes In TSI are not sufficient to cause dramatic changes, the changes in UV out put are much larger.”
You seem to be implying that UV is not part of TSI, which it is, a very small part.
What do they mean by “up to 50%”? Translate that to degrees C, please…
Bruce Cobb says:
April 29, 2013 at 4:10 pm
“@ur momisugly Tom in Florida; you can’t be “skeptical about everything”, and why “especially about solar”? There has to be a starting point. For instance, what factors do you think influence climate most, and why? How do you suppose the Medieval and Roman Warm periods occurred? Or, do you doubt they happened? Perhaps you also doubt the moon landing, and that 9/11 was actually perpetrated by terrorists?”
Let’s not get off subject by taking things to the extreme. Being skeptical does not mean you do not believe anything. I am skeptical about everything simply means if I do not know something I do not take another persons word for it simply because they say it. This is especially true with the internet, and all salesmen for that matter. Just for the record, I do not doubt the moon landing or that terrorists were responsible for 9/11. I have been around a long time and have learned many things about many things. My opinions and what I believe to be true are based on that, although I am always open to changes but they must have some substance and real evidence. I have also been around long enough to recognize most charlatans and snake oil salesmen (having been one myself long ago).
Now to answer your question of what factors do I think influence climate most. Insolation is the major factor. Orbit and obliquity changes, being the reason for our seasons, are on the top of the list. The rest are just minor range changes from which humans have survived for tens of thousands of years.
The sun is a far better candidate for driving our climate than a trace gas.. How trace you ask, lets try 0.0391 percent.. (about 3.9% of 1%)
Its funny that if you had to pick a gas to tax, CO2 would be the perfect choice.. Almost to perfect when you think about it.. The environmentalists every man Joe Plumber tax ticket, thats got a built in across the board fairness.. We all create CO2 so NOBODY is exempt.. Strange that the doom gas is also such a fair gas..
This CO2 global warming, climate change idea and solutions are to perfect for it to ring true..
Its as tight as our income/sales tax code.. Lovingly built to pick our pockets at every turn..
We generally dont build anything this well unless its planned front to back from the get go..
This is why the warming industry only sees warming.. To much of this or to little of that, its gotta be CO2.
its always has to be CO2 because CO2 is just so damn perfect.. its almost a work of tax code art..
A way for the government and their rent seeking minions to get their hands on the 50% of your money thats left over from traditional taxes.. They have to do this in a way to fool the public into not doing the math..
Almost to perfect when you think about it..
“The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.
This March in the UK was colder than all but two in that period: http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat
Is there a government worker out there that doesn’t want a carbon tax? Is there a government worker unaware that the public’s ability to pay more tax is maxed out? Raises, promotions and indexed pensions from a new CO2 based revenue stream?
Our Schools preach global warming, with every working person in the building wanting a bright and successful future on the public dime.. Our public broadcasters (CBC, BBC, PBS) preach global warming, with every working person in the building wanting a bright and successful future on the public dime..
Did I mention that they cant raise income or sales taxes anymore without a severe kickback..
Where is this money going to come from because god knows government couldn’t pub two nickles together to make a dime..
Without a new income stream our government and their groupies have a zero growth future..
So when they splash around 40% of the population believe in this new tax stream I’m more than a little skeptical.. I’m outraged!
There is more than handwaving support in the litterature for a coming long period of cooling. I have been especially impressed by a Chinese paper (Liu et al, Chines Science Bulletin 56, 2086 (2011)) with analysis of a 2485 year long time series of tree ring data from Tibet. With a mathematical technique called caterpillar SVD they show that the temperature variations in the second half of the period, including the temperature increase in the 20th century, can be predicted quite well with a mathematical function derived from the first half of the series. They find dominant cycles of 1324, 800, 199, and 110 years which they ascribe to solar variations. Extending the prediction to this century they find a temp maximum around 2006, strong cooling till 2068, and then again warming.
Winter is coming.
One of the warmist’s anchor arguments is CO2’s direct impact may be small, but it makes a bump that starts feedback loops that cause great warming. They say solar activity can’t possibly have caused the magnitude of warming we’re seeing, because it is a tiny driver compared to CO2. All false. But, if cooling occurs, watch them try to have it both ways, arguing that the slow solar activity is offsetting and overwhelming all the due warming.
Our little blue world has but one heater, if it sneezes we get a cold. The harmony of the spheres and their interactions gives us the harmonic nodes we see as cycles in the record.
Our sun varies in many ways and its heat and light we get is not all that heats and powers our world, the electro-magnetic effect on our world is huge, of recent times the suns magnetic power has been in decline, as has the power of our magnetic field. It is the full spectrum that gives us our conditions on Earth and much of it is very variable.
Everything we have comes from the sun, without it we are a dead rock in the void.
A cooling crisis is just as lucrative as a warming crisis.
I think we should shoot for 2000ppm CO2 by the end of the century just in case.
For heaven’s sake people. Solar variability in terms of its affect on our weather, thus climate is nothing compared to what the oceans, meandering jet stream, atomspheric pressure systems (the ones that come and go as well as the ones that are semipermanent), water vapor, the Coriolis affect, and clouds can do.
Try this thought experiment: Just consider how long it takes a drop of water riding on the currents coming out of the Arctic to make its way down, around the various ocean “rivers”, and back up into the Arctic. It takes a long time. And it makes its way through a number of the systems mentioned above that brings its temperature up or down. How could anyone imagine that process is a one-note suzie or somehow cancels itself out to the degree that we can possibly detect some other signal?????
In fact the entire set of natural intrinsic systems from the top of the atmosphere down is a teleconnected yet highly variable group of not very well behaved teenagers. Figuring out what it is going to do next, down to the .5 decimal place, is like herding cats.