Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

From Radio Voice of Russia:

Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory: “we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years”

Scientists at Russia’s famous Pulkovo Observatory are convinced that the world is in for a period of global cooling.

archibald_1749_2049_projected_solar_cycle

Graph by David Archibald

Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.

Just recently, experts said that the Arctic ice cover was becoming thinner while journalists warned that the oncoming global warming would make it possible to grow oranges in the north of Siberia. Now, they say a cold spell will set in. Apparently, this will not occur overnight, Yuri Nagovitsyn of the Pulkovo Observatory, says.

“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Even though pessimists say global cooling will hamper exploration of the Arctic, experts say it won’t. Climate change and the resulting increase in the thickness of the Arctic ice cover pose no obstacles to the extraction of oil and gas on the Arctic shelf. As oil and gas reserves of the Arctic sea shelf are estimated to be billions of tons, countries are demonstrating more interest in the development of the Arctic. Climate change will also have no impact on the Northern Sea Route, which makes it possible to cut trade routes between Europe, Asia and America. Professor Igor Davidenko comments.

“The Northern Sea Route has never opened so early or closed so late over the past 30 years. Last year saw a cargo transit record – more than five million tons. The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012. China plans it to handle up to 15% of its exports”.

As Russia steps up efforts to upgrade its icebreaker fleet, new-generation icebreakers are set to arrive in the years to come. No climate changes will thus be able to impede an increase in shipping traffic via the Northern Sea Route.

Read more: http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_04_22/Cooling-in-the-Arctic-what-to-expect/

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The number of books written by American journalists taking what the Russians are saying about global cooling seriously remains at: one. It happens to have been written by yours truly, and there is a chance that I published it three to five years too early. There are worse mistakes one can make journalistically, but not necessarily in terms of marketing, lol.
If you’ve yet to read your first book about solar-induced global cooling that may very well be on the table, and would like to, it’s available in paperback and Kindle, the latter linked here:
http://www.amazon.com/Dont-Sell-Your-Coat-ebook/dp/B0072VSQFQ

JDC

Leif will not approve.

Patrick

I recall reading something like this way back in the early 2000’s. The prediction was a “cooling trend” would start around 2015.

Shepherdfj

I assume that the scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg are not part of the “overwhelming scientific consensus” on climate change.

With all apologies to Yakov Smirnoff, in Soviet Russia, climate changes you.
In the long term, it is clear that climate change is driven by things greater than small changes in the partial pressure of a trace gas. It is unlikely to be one thing and is probably a combination of factors that are ordinarily randomly out of phase that come together for major events.

Jenn Oates

Back in the days before early home pregnancy tests, my mom used to tell me not to worry, if I was pregnant it’d become obvious sooner or later. The same goes for this…sooner or later we will know which way the climate goes, even if we’re not around to witness it.

“The first Chinese icebreaker sailed along the Northern Sea Route in 2012…..”. With all the ice-breaking that goes on these days, it’s no wonder Arctic sea ice is retreating!

We know from history what previous cooling cycles have meant (famine, wars, etc.). With the power of today’s destructiveness, I wonder if man is wise enough to survive the next round.

Elliot Kennel

Is there a publication that makes this prediction, or is this just an opinion expressed by the scientist?

Doug Proctor

Confusion: isn’t 24 coming in about 65? And the graphed “25” looks like a sudden onset Maunder Minimum. Since we couldn’t predict a 24 the way even 5 years ago, a collapse to a Maunder seems a stretch. A stepdown from last two would give us a Dalton, though.
Hah! A warning about a Maunder equivalent is the “coldist” version of CAGW ….. Do you think there are any grants available to prepare for another LIA?

@ Harold Ambler
You might want to hit the “refresh” button on “your first” with the new ice age claim. Robert Felix published “Not by Fire, but by Ice” in Aug 1999. I’ve heard Robert in a number of radio interviews, and noticed some science discrepancies. His unwillingness to reply to email questions and fact corrections limited my interest in his book. His website, IceAgeNow.com does have good information, and like us all, with effort, knowledge improves over time. Of course, Hansen predicted pending Ice Age, before he predicted the pending Greenhouse Steam Age, if covering all the bases some how makes you “correct”.

Patrick

“Jenn Oates says:
April 29, 2013 at 7:40 am”
Yes. But we know the cause. Unless it was immaculate, of course.

tgmccoy

Drill,baby drill. Thorium Reactors, we can weather anything-if we stop our ridiculous navel gazing.
More energy is a way to stop wars and famine. Not less…
‘Happiness is a warm fast breeder’-Old Hanford area T-shirt..

DJ

“The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040” I am sure I don’t live until that day LOL

gofer

Hansen and McKibben along with others have said that 350ppm is the “safe” level for CO2. Since we know what the weather or climate was like at 350ppm, why haven’t they gone back to 1988 and prior and compare that to today’s weather?

Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
It has aways been the sun!

Olavi

JDC says:
April 29, 2013 at 7:32 am
Leif will not approve.
_____________________________________________________________
Because it is against his pet theory. Time will show who is right. I believe Svensmark’s theory and research is going to get more support very soon. It’s the SUN stupid. 🙂

Steve Keohane

If we enter a cooling period, it will be hard to not see it as the end of the Holocene. It is about time. Many look at the ice core proxies as a good example of why it gets warm. That loses its sheen with a time lag between temperature and CO2 levels, and becomes an effect rather than a cause. I’m worried about the other end of the proxies, the maximum CO2 levels occur just prior to re-glaciation.

“Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle.”
I thought we were also on the cooling side of a 60-year cycle: warming from (roughly) 1970-2000, cooling for the next 30 years. I seem to recall a Russian article on the cycle.

“Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious (STUPID, UNINFORMED, POLITICAL, HALF-ASSED) projects for the exploration of the Arctic”
There, I fixed it.

higley7

Phineas Fahrquar said on April 29, 2013 at 8:14 am:
“I thought we were also on the cooling side of a 60-year cycle: warming from (roughly) 1970-2000, cooling for the next 30 years. I seem to recall a Russian article on the cycle.”
We are on a 30-year cycle, but there are bigger cycles making themselves felt at this point.

higley7

I would also venture that the size of solar cycle 24 in the graph is actually a bit smaller than depicted here and thus the cooling is entering the stage earlier than indicated.

Severian

So, the West is suicidally hamstringing its ability to produce cheap energy, while the Russians are building icebreakers.
Let’s see if I can predict the response to global cooling: We have to tax energy production to redistribute the money to the poor countries, after passing it through unelected bureaucrats fingers of course, and we have to further increase funding to the IPCC so they can determine what mankind is doing to cause the cooling, as it just has to be our fault.

stas peterson

Thorium Fission reactors will never happen, as they will be overtaken and replaced by the now rapidly developing Fusion reactor technology. ITER was suppposed to be the LAST Physics experiment and also the FIRST Engineering exercise to try to scale up Fusion reactors to commercial size.
In the long period of ITER uncertainty and construction, every one of the Physics problems have ALREADY been solved elsewhere. ITER is now purely an engineering activity to scale up Fusion to comercial plant size. That engineering design activity is essentially completed; and the construction effort using those designs, is in flower.
We are witnessing the coming end of the “Energy Problem” amid enormous new Petroleum and Natural Gas discoveries, and the arrival of Fusion technology.

Jpatrick

“The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%.”
This statement, taken alone, just can’t be true, and I wouldn’t know how to qualify it to make it true.

Greg House

Might well be the same sort of unscientific crap as “global warming”.
We need to stop believing and start asking for evidence.

Patrick

“Severian says:
April 29, 2013 at 8:32 am
So, the West is suicidally hamstringing its ability to produce cheap energy, while the Russians are building icebreakers.”
Indeed. Its quite funny really. “Who ya gunna call?” Ice busters (The Russians).

Loppy

Global Cooling will soon become the accepted paradigm – see my earlier guest post on this site at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/02/global-cooling-methods-and-testable-decadal-predictions/
here is a summary of the conclusions of that post.
1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.
For more posts on climate and Global Cooling check
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

Ivan

I wouldn’t bet on ITER. It looks like a project to transfer taxpayer money to well connected insiders with job security until the year 2030 to boot.

Some say that we must not accept “wiggle matching” until a proven causal mechanism exists. The recent warming cannot be due to the sun, they insist.
Then, What can explain the inflection point in the global temperature curve from approximately year 2000 until now?
I maintain that now is an excellent time to re-frame the debate, and focus our considerable abilities and energies (as a whole, a society) to answering that question. If it indeed turns out that a weak sunspot cycle and simultaneous cold ocean cycle produce catastrophic cold, we are going to look rather silly in about 10 or 20 years time. Our children, when grown, will figure this out and ask, Why didn’t the scientists make the connection between sunspot cycles and cold? They had ample evidence from the past. Why didn’t someone sound the alarm, and take prudent steps to try to prepare for the bitter and prolonged cold?
No, I believe ancient man went about their agricultural activities right on schedule, each Spring. When the ground was warm enough, they plowed or stuck seeds in the earth. We even have the Stonehenge as a (possible) example, with the stones aligned so the Spring Equinox could be known to the exact day. They didn’t need a proven causal mechanism to act.
Neither do we.

G P Hanner

I’ve always said that global warming is better than global cooling. Take a look around in January in the US upper midwest and note the number of crops growing. This year April has been quite a bit cooler and snowier than in past years. As a result, the apple trees have not yet bloomed (already bloomed past years); the ruby-throat hummingbirds are a tad later in their annual migration this year; but the obnoxious grackles are right on time.
Yeah, yeah. I know. Weather is not climate; however, the predominant weather defines climate. Being old enough to remember WWII I also recall winter conditions that generally arrive earlier and stayed longer. I have grown accustomed to the generally milder climate of the past couple of decades.

Bruce Cobb

Greg House says:
April 29, 2013 at 8:41 am
Might well be the same sort of unscientific crap as “global warming”.
We need to stop believing and start asking for evidence.

The two are in no way comparable. There is plenty of evidence for the sun being the major driver of climate, so it isn’t a question of belief. However, it’s a young science, and certainly much more study is needed. Certainly the oceans play a key role as well. What we do know, however, is that man’s effect on climate pales in comparison. C02 plays a role, but a minor one, as shown by the fact that C02 follows what climate does, not the reverse.

Steve Keohane

G P Hanner says:April 29, 2013 at 9:02 am
Your link to maps of hummingbird migration are disappointing. There is nothing west of the Mississippi River. I live in Western Colorado, and watch for their return and departure annually. We usually have them by 4/20…none yet this year. Noticed in 2011, they left 2-3 weeks early, and we havd sub-zero temperatures two months later, 2-3 week earlier than usual. They seem to have some prescience about the near future.

murrayv

See “Chaotic Climate and the Next Ice Age” at http://www.agwnot.blogspot.com

global cooling will last until ca. 2040
here is an interesting article
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/

mpainter

This sort of stuff is a good counter-irritant to use against the global warmers, but who believes that you can reliably forecast climatic shifts? Not I.

Brian

Anyone who has written on global warming had better get their book into print fast if they want to see any royalties.

@J.O., to my knowledge Felix’s book does not discuss an incipient grand solar minimum (predicted after his book came out) and what effect such events have had on the ocean-atmosphere system in the past. I have meant to read his book and will reserve judgment and further comment until then.

rabbit

Cold weather is a boon to arctic petroleum exploration. Much arctic land is saturated with water in the form of muskeg, small lakes, and so on. Only in the cold is such terrain traversable.

TimC

Do any IPCC models show this suggested cooling – and is this Pulkovo theory in time for AR5?

Martin H. Katchen

If those scientists are right, we need to be burning as much coal and natural gas as possible in order to hopefully counteract that global cooling and avoid the next ice age. –which could be disastrous for humanity. That is if, of course, the atmosphere isn’t totally saturated to the point that more CO2 won’t do any good and we need orbital solar mirrors to keep the earth warm. One way or another, though , seriously, we have to get the science right and head off the hysteria and politicization.

Snake Oil Baron

Seems like a bit far in the future to be predicting unless one is a climatologist and has a pointy hat with stars.

genomega1

Reblogged this on News You May Have Missed and commented:
Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

Joseph A Olson says April 29, 2013 at 7:55 am
@ Harold Ambler
You might want to hit the “refresh” button on “your first” …

Indeed, it most likely is “his first”, unless you possibly meant “you are [not?] first” (in that category), which has an ENTIRELY different meaning than that which was written.
A further example: “You should be clear in your writing since you’re [you are] on exhibition here.
/pet peeve #1
/pedant
.

Is this forecast based on a statistical change of sunspot numbers?

Dr. A.
Many of us have been saying the same thing for years. A clear mechanism is required, and in that respect the Russian scientists are no more advanced than the rest of us sceptics.

ralfellis

Steve Keohane says: April 29, 2013 at 9:18 am
I live in Western Colorado, and watch for their return and departure annually. We usually have them by 4/20…none yet this year.
______________________________
And no leaves on the trees in NW Europe yet. Must be 3-4 weeks late this year.
The UK Daily Mail had a wonderful article about the beautiful tulips at the Keukenhof gardens, but this was yet more propaganda. What they negated to say was that all those wonderful photos were from stock, as there are no flowers yet this year. Again this must be 3-4 weeks late.
.

Resourceguy

And now for the main event in the ring with Putin vs. Leif. But seriously I think the real problem is a lack of breakthrough parameter construction that dissects the solar cycles as statistical distributions around the peak in order to construct time series off these ordered increments–deciles perhaps.

Resourceguy

Actually, this is progress. At least they are not claiming a slow down in the Gulf Stream! I guess that was part of the plan back when there was a chance for more funds from Kyoto and U.S. carbon tax passage.