Dilbert becomes skeptical of climate change disaster

Disaster-Recovery-Dilbert[1]From Scott Adams (creator of the Dilbert comic strip) blog, who seems to have stumbled across an interview with the author of this video we recently highlighted at WUWT. Scott Adams writes:

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Fact Checking: Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters

I was watching Real Time with Bill Maher the other day. He had a professor on the show who said climate change can be fixed by making well-understood adjustments to how farmers raise cattle plus some other fairly ordinary changes. Apparently this is all explained in a documentary called Carbon Nation.

I’m skeptical of any claim so big and contrarian, but it does fit with The Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters. Simply stated, my observation is that whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it. Let’s run through some examples:  

Thomas Malthus famously predicted that the world would run out of food as the population grew. Instead, humans improved their farming technology.

When I was a kid, it was generally assumed that the world would be destroyed by a global nuclear war. The world has been close to nuclear disaster a few times, but so far we’ve avoided all-out nuclear war.

The world was supposed to run out of oil by now, but instead we keep finding new ways to extract it from the ground. The United States has unexpectedly become a net provider of energy.

….

(he continues with more items in the list)

In California, predicted ongoing droughts were supposed decimate the state. Instead, it rained.

Can anyone give me an example of a potential global disaster that the general public saw coming, with at least a ten year warning, and it actually happened as predicted?

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Full story here: http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/fact_checking_adams_law_of_slowmoving_disasters/

WUWT readers surely can find some examples?

h/t to WUWT reader AJ

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David L. Hagen
April 22, 2013 7:40 am

Scott Adams misunderstands –

The world was supposed to run out of oil by now

“peak oil” does NOT mean RUN OUT, but reach the MAXIMUM PRODUCTION RATE
In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted the US 48 states production would peak around 1970. He was right within a year.
James Hamilton documents how the crude oil production of each US State/region has peaked except for North Dakota/Montana. See:

Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth. This paper explores details behind the phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half and the implications if that trend should be reversed. I document that a key feature of the growth in production has been exploitation of new geographic areas rather than application of better technology to existing sources, and suggest that the end of that era could come soon. The economic dislocations that historically followed temporary oil supply disruptions are reviewed, and the possible implications of that experience for what the transition era could look like are explored.

The economic chaos since 2005 was triggered by the rate of increase in global crude oil production plateauing with a tenfold increase in price over 1998.
Replacing the current rate of oil depletion of about 4%/year and providing for growth is our critical challenge for this coming generation.

Jon
April 22, 2013 6:30 pm

The baby boomers/ hippies since 1968 and way to todays direct/indirect political power and their attempt to make a better world?

April 22, 2013 6:44 pm

Global Warming Alarmism. I saw that coming from about 1985 and I just couldn’t stop it.

Allan MacRae
April 26, 2013 6:46 pm

Joe Ryan says: April 22, 2013 at 6:44 pm
Global Warming Alarmism. I saw that coming from about 1985 and I just couldn’t stop it.
Hi Joe,
I too started studying this subject in 1985 – I felt it was part of my job responsibility at that time.
No wonder I’ve started to lose interest – it’s been 28 years.
Best, Allan

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