From Scott Adams (creator of the Dilbert comic strip) blog, who seems to have stumbled across an interview with the author of this video we recently highlighted at WUWT. Scott Adams writes:
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Fact Checking: Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters
I was watching Real Time with Bill Maher the other day. He had a professor on the show who said climate change can be fixed by making well-understood adjustments to how farmers raise cattle plus some other fairly ordinary changes. Apparently this is all explained in a documentary called Carbon Nation.
I’m skeptical of any claim so big and contrarian, but it does fit with The Adams Law of Slow-Moving Disasters. Simply stated, my observation is that whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it. Let’s run through some examples:
Thomas Malthus famously predicted that the world would run out of food as the population grew. Instead, humans improved their farming technology.
When I was a kid, it was generally assumed that the world would be destroyed by a global nuclear war. The world has been close to nuclear disaster a few times, but so far we’ve avoided all-out nuclear war.
The world was supposed to run out of oil by now, but instead we keep finding new ways to extract it from the ground. The United States has unexpectedly become a net provider of energy.
….
(he continues with more items in the list)
…
In California, predicted ongoing droughts were supposed decimate the state. Instead, it rained.
Can anyone give me an example of a potential global disaster that the general public saw coming, with at least a ten year warning, and it actually happened as predicted?
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Full story here: http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/fact_checking_adams_law_of_slowmoving_disasters/
WUWT readers surely can find some examples?
h/t to WUWT reader AJ
“Can anyone give me an example of a potential global disaster that the general public saw coming, with at least a ten year warning, and it actually happened as predicted?
JF: No sorry but I can give you hundreds that did NOT happen.
Yes, my wallet (and yours) is empty, the government has spent it, and wants more 🙂
1 This is global, I have moved now to Myanmar to afford expenses,
2.it certainly is a disaster.
3. It has been seen coming for more than 10 years, however I can’t vouch for the general public Knowledge of anything recently. Stupidity is running rampant!
“…Thomas Malthus famously predicted that the world would run out of food as the population grew. Instead, humans improved their farming technology.
When I was a kid, it was generally assumed that the world would be destroyed by a global nuclear war. The world has been close to nuclear disaster a few times, but so far we’ve avoided all-out nuclear war.
The world was supposed to run out of oil by now, but instead we keep finding new ways to extract it from the ground. The United States has unexpectedly become a net provider of energy….
Can someone tell him that he’s rediscovered Julian Simon’s work? I know that Simon was brushed out of history by Ehrlich and his crowd, but this is ridiculous…
Why WWF stands for
“Waiting For the Wheels to Fall off”
IMO
Communism.
One example that’s fairly easy:
The morphing of the modern democrat party into the democrat totalitarian party-one that allegedly champions liberty, civil rights and prosperity, but through it’s policies and actions causes the opposite to happen. Saw that coming decades ago and many were warned about it.
Oh, just one more:
President Eisenhower’s second warning in his Farewell Address. He warned, some heeded and some drooled over how that might benefit them ==>CAGW and the CAGW industrial complex.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/21/ikes-second-warning-hint-it-is-not-the-military-industrial-complex/
“Simply stated, my observation is that whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it.”
The big mistake would be to assume that it is a waste of time warning of a slow-moving disaster. The point surely is that we do need to be warned, so that we can do something about it. It is then rather mean to blame those that did the warning for being “wrong”.
Overfishing is a disaster currently in the making, and hopefully increasing awareness of the risk will result in it too being averted. Doesn’t mean it’s a non-problem.
CAGW, though, is a non-problem, because there is no foundation for claims of ECS > ~1.2.
Famine in Africa, which has been an ongoing problem for years, highlighted by Band Aid in the mid-80’s
Overpopulation in China, which has been relieved by by the policy of limiting couples to one child only, but has caused misery to those who want to have more than one child.
These are two examples of “chronic” problems which I am sure the author did not have in mind. To this list you can also add statistically likely natural events such as earthquakes, asteroid impacts, tsunamis and virus mutations causing pandemics.
To my knowledge though there has not been a predicted “acute” event which the general public have been aware of, despite the efforts of the usual suspect doom mongers.
In 1979, it was predicted that if the U.K. Labour Party ever again formed a government, it would be an economic disaster Sure enough, by 2010 there was no money left.
WW2, inevitable as a consequence of reparations against Germany following the Great War, and the Depression. Probably a slightly naive or simplistic view, but it works for me.
Nixon. A has-been in 1961, disaster in 1973. What do I win?
I have a confirmed prediction of disaster that was almost exactly ten years, although it didn’t generally alarm the public when the prediction was made.
The current economic crisis was predicted with spooky accuracy by many, including in an earlier chapter of the late ’90s book I’m reading, Hidden Agendas by John Pilger. His prediction comes during a criticism of the the Thatcherite/Blairite policies being put in place at the time. (The book takes the position that Blairism was the completion of Thatcherism….. and I agree!)
You could say it’s easy, after the fact, to find those predictions that happened to come true. However that is not what I was looking for; the book is generally extremely prescient and this is just one example that springs to mind.
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Rambling now, off topic…
I don’t agree with Pilger on all his political views, (although Blairism IS the completion of Thatcherism), but what I do like is his reporting of facts, on the whole. In other words I’d say the Pilger/Chomsky version of history is essential reading, even if you don’t agree completely with their political views, and even if the menace of religion is conspicuous by its absence from their analysis of all that’s wrong in the world.
I would add that if anyone says Pilger and Chomsky ‘just hate all things Western’, then they can’t have read either very carefully.
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That ramble was preemptive of other people’s possible rambles, about the mad ‘leftist’ Pilger. I’d say lefty, myself. Accusing everyone of isms indiscriminately is a bit too Monckton-like for me.
Admad says:
April 20, 2013 at 3:02 am
WW2, inevitable as a consequence of reparations against Germany following the Great War, and the Depression. Probably a slightly naive or simplistic view, but it works for me.
I don’t think anyone could claim that the general public saw that one coming. Remember the cheers when Chamberlain returned from his meeting with Adloff Hilter* with that “piece of paper?” It was only after they bomber Poland that we “saw it coming” – somewhat after the fact.
*deliberately misspelt to attempt to avoid the sin bin
Although CAGW hasn’t, and never will happen as advertised, I guess the closest prediction that actually occurred would be Peter Schiff’s warmings of the US 2008/09 housing market collapse.
He nailed that one perfectly, although it wasn’t quite 10 years before he started making his predictions.
I still think the sovereign debt crisis will eventually lead to the worst world economic collapse in human history, and we’re getting pretty close to that event happening…..
We shall see, what we shall see, but US’ $222 TRILLION unfunded liabilities and $85 billion/month FED money printing can’t last much longer.
Pundits point to the “recovering” DOW as a sign of recovery, but that’s just a nominal increase caused by monetary inflation. Gold’s recent fall is merely the market confusing DOW inflation to economic recovery and getting out of gold to buy inflated stocks….
Again, we shall see.
Adams: “I was watching Real Time with Bill Maher the other day.”
How embarassing is that?
Samurai
I hope you are so wrong, but there are many people who believe this ‘sovereign debt crisis’ or ‘currency war’ or ‘global currency devaluation’ (or whatever it is called now) will end very badly. This is something which troubles me far more than global warming ever has.
Klem, I couldn’t agree more. The worldwide debt is frightening!
Can someone tell him that he’s rediscovered Julian Simon’s work? I know that Simon was brushed out of history by Ehrlich and his crowd, but this is ridiculous…
Close. It would be Herman Kahn’s work. Julian was one of “Herman’s Hermits”. Herman was an advisor to five presidents. (Some listened better than others.) He has only been brushed out of the headlines, but not out of history. Go to any college library, even the most left-wing ones, and you will find the whole set his books.
Entitlement spending…
A better way to ask the disaster question is limit it to a global natural disaster. Political/economic SNAFUs that make people miserable, but have little affect on most of nature, are SOP..
We saw Justin Bieber coming and did nothing, oh the horror… ☹
In response to Dirk H, who noted it was an embarrassment to admit watching Bill Maher. One can always claim necessity, such as stopping at an x-rated video store for directions late at night when other businesses are closed. If one needs to cross a room to get to another location and Bill Maher’s show is on a TV there, it can be excused. However, stopping at the video store or seeing Bill Maher a SECOND time is highly suspect…
After Clinton’s re-intrepretation of the Community Reinvestment Act, some of us economists said that government policy that prodded and mandated banks to give mortgages to unqualified borrowers could actually lead to a financial crisis caused by banks giving mortgages to unqualified borrowers. And the disaster was actually worse than we anticipated — for several reasons that will not be discussed in this short post.
“Can anyone give me an example of a potential global disaster that the general public saw coming, with at least a ten year warming, and it actually happened as predicted?”
The only major disasters I can think of, which could perhaps have been predicted well beforehand, are those caused by dangerous governments, where in all cases such governments were not subject to reform and regulation by the will of the people, however most of these are also not ‘global’ in the usual sense. Nazism in the 1930s, Japanese Nationalism in the 1920s-1930s (and earlier), Collective farming under communism in the 1920s-1930s, the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution in China in the 1960s, North Korean famine and collectivism since the 1950s, the Great Depression in the 1930s.
It is worth noting that in all cases, except the last-the Great Depression- the following patterns were present:
1. they were very sure of their policies without the data to justify it.
2. an enemy, political adversary, or social practice was present which threatened the very existence of the state/ nation.
3. They were carried out by otherwise ordinary people.
4. They were supported and justified by state learning institutions, including in most cases what would otherwise pass as ‘science’.
5. There was a high degree of silencing, eliminating or excluding dissent.
6. The military played a significant role.
7. They were essentially government driven social disasters, by government-based ideologies. This isn’t to say that disasters cant happen which are not essentially brought about by governments, (the best example perhaps is the Great Depression, which was a failure to regulate the market), but government disasters tend to be more common simply because governments tend to develop resistive ideologies that are less able to respond and be regulated and balanced by the common sense of the people.
The climate change movement has elements of all the above except 6- no military involvement.
Perhaps that’s enough political philosophy for one day, from me anyway.
Y2K. Absolutely. The entire planet was plunged into chaos. Oh wait, the chaos was in 1999… 2000 arrived with very few issues.