Warm and well fed, or hungry in the dark?
Guest post by Viv Forbes
Which is worse – gradual man-made global warming or sudden electricity blackout?
Alarmists try to scare us by claiming that man’s activities are causing global warming. Whether and when we may see new man-made warming is disputed and uncertain. If it does appear, the world will be slightly warmer, with more evaporation and rainfall; plants will grow better and colonise some areas currently too cold or too dry; fewer old people will die in winter and sea levels may continue the gradual rise we have seen since the end of the last ice age. There may even be a bit more “green” in Greenland. There is no evidence that man’s production of carbon dioxide is causing more extreme weather events. Any change caused by man will be gradual and there will be plenty of time to adapt, as humans have always done. Most people will hardly notice it.
What is certain, however, is that global warming policies are greatly increasing the chances of electricity blackouts, and here the effects can be predicted confidently – they will be sudden and severe.
Localised short-term blackouts can be caused by cyclones, storms, fires, floods, accidents, equipment failure or overloading. People will cope with them. The more widespread blackouts, caused for example by network collapse or insufficient generating capacity, will have severe effects.
All modern human activities are heavily dependent on electricity. Blackouts will stop lifts, trains, traffic lights, tools, appliances, factories, mines, refineries, communications and pumps for fuel, water and sewerage. People will be trapped or stranded in trains, ports, airports, lifts, hotels, hospitals and traffic jams. ATM’s, credit cards and supermarket checkouts will not work. Cash, cheques, IOU’s and pocket calculators will be required to buy anything.
Immediately a blackout occurs, those with emergency generators, fuel or batteries will start using them.
But within a very few days, batteries will run flat, emergency fuel supplies will be exhausted, food supplies will disappear from stores and pumped water will not be available. Intensive dairies, hatcheries, piggeries and feedlots will all face critical problems in keeping their animals alive and cared for.
If the blackout is extensive and prolonged, looting will infect the big cities and then spread to country areas. People who are old, sick, incapacitated or alone will be forgotten as able-bodied people focus on feeding and protecting their own.
The real threat to humanity today is not the theoretical dangers from gradual man-made global warming. A far bigger real danger is the growing threat to reliable electricity supplies from deep-green climate policies.
The most reliable electricity supplies come from coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, geothermal or oil. Misguided politicians and uncompromising nature are conspiring to ensure that few of these will be available to generate Australia’s future electricity.
The carbon tax and renewable energy targets threaten the financial viability of using coal, gas or oil to generate electricity. Banks and investors will not risk their capital on new carbon-powered stations dependent on an unstable and polarised political environment. And the declining profitability of existing stations under the carbon tax and mandated market sharing makes it risky and uneconomic to spend money maintaining existing aging stations.
The same green zealots who plot to destroy carbon energy will also work to prevent the construction of new nuclear or hydro plants in Australia. And Australia’s geothermal resources, being generally deep and remote, are unlikely to provide significant electricity for decades.
We are thus being forced to rely on fickle breezes and peek-a-boo sunbeams to generate expensive and intermittent electricity. And it will not be economic to continue building backup gas plants that are run below capacity or sit idle, earning insufficient income as they try to fill the unpredictable production gaps in the supply of green energy. The margin of supply safety will disappear.
Therefore, if we continue to allow green zealots to dictate our electricity generation, blackouts are inevitable. Britain and Germany already face this grim prospect.
All actions have consequences. We cannot continue pouring billions of dollars of community savings down the climate-change sink-hole, without starving our essential infrastructure. We cannot keep adding taxes and political risk to traditional electricity generators without reducing new investment in real base-load generating capacity. And we cannot keep adding unstable solar and wind elements to our electricity network without adding greatly to electricity costs and the risks of network failure.
When the lights fail, and the supermarket shelves are cleaned out, we will return, at great cost and after much misery, to cheap reliable continuous electricity using coal, gas or nuclear fuels.
Gaia worshippers will find that “Earth Hour” will not be such fun when it becomes “Earth Week”.
(772 words)
Viv Forbes,
Rosewood Qld Australia
More Reading for those interested:
A real story of life in a Megacity during an extended Blackout:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/living-the-green-dream-in-megacity.pdf
What Happens during a Blackout – an assessment of the consequences of a prolonged and wide-ranging Power Outage in Germany:
http://carbon-sense.com/2013/03/30/blackout-dangers-in-germany/
Germany facing Blackouts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9609777/Germany-facing-power-blackouts.html
Rolling Blackouts loom in UK:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/energy_and_environment/article1206396.ece
Rolling Blackouts force Texas to Import Power from Mexico:
Wind Power fails Britain:
http://carbon-sense.com/2011/10/21/wind-power-fails-britain/
Why Wind Won’t Work:
http://carbon-sense.com/2011/02/08/why-wind-wont-work/
It’s the cold, not global warming, that is the danger:
A Lesson on Renewable Energy from a Canny Scot:
http://carbon-sense.com/2011/12/01/miller-to-salmond-letter/
Wind Farm Performance:
http://stopthesethings.com/2013/03/29/the-wind-industrys-lies-dissected/
@vboring –
To expand on your comments, the “firming” power to fill gaps can only be generated by the more inefficient type of gas-fired generation (simple cycle), which use twice as much fuel per megawatt-hour generated as the more efficient type (combined cycle). Thi is because combined-cycle generation cannot ramp up and down as fast as needed to respond when the wind stops oir starts. And so that means the 93 percent of power that must be supplied to make up for wind intermittency ccan burn upt to almoist twice as much fuel, and emit almoist twice as much CO2 as combuined-cycle baseload generation that does not have to allow for a wind component in the mix. At the very least, this doubling of emissions would apply to the 23 percent (30 percent of rated capacity – 7 percent of actual load factor), still a huge increase in CO2 emissions attributable to wind power – and cojuld be even more than this..
Another perfect example of the fallacy that “green” energy reduces emissions. Which nis irrelevant in any event, sibnce CO2 emissions do not do what the alarmies claim anyway.
And of course this doesn’t consider the horrific environmental damage done by wind generation – the bird kills (how many endangered species are being killed by the turbines?), the disruption of habitats, the noise of the turbines with its effect on animal life in their vicinity, the toxic chemicals used to operate the turbines, and the despoliation of beautiful landscapes a(nd seascapes, for that matter).
Wind power is faux environmentalism (and so is green generally).
I hope more of our society realize this urgent situation
@Agoy,
Not at you personally, but I hope they don’t, we need culling
tobias:
At April 2, 2013 at 1:30 am you say
OK. I accept that is your view.
Please don’t start with anybody except yourself.
Richard
I do not know who is the more deluded the UK government or that of Australia. certainly the Welsh Wizard, Australian PM, is probably the most deluded woman outside the US EPA. Ed Davey, a guaranteed old woman, runs a close second
Last Saturday wind supplied less than 2% of UK electricity.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/grown-ups-v-babies/
And in January we had 35 hours of sunshine in the whole month.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/03/31/why-solar-is-not-the-answer/
.
I have been saying this for years. As have others. See this video by Michael Burke, which was made some 40 years ago when the BBC could be trusted. It details the problems we would face, if electrical power failed.
Or do a web search for the US North East blackout (in the ’90s), and see how much the region regressed back into the Dark Ages in just two days without power.
Some have said here that this article is alarmism, but it is only too real. Our modern world comes to a halt without electricity.
.
Read the bible and get ready for Jesus, the rest is futile.
During blackouts, people will fire up backup generators, producing far more of that nasty carbon, aka C02 than if they received their power from a power plant, as well as producing other noxious, and even potentially deadly fumes. Of course, those who can’t afford generators and the fuel to run them will just shiver in the dark. And, if some have to die because of fuel poverty, oh well, too bad. As long as the “greater good” of “saving the planet” has been achieved.
The green movement really needs to be named the KHMER VERT. It is exactly the same as Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge in the murderous intensity of its desire to destroy technological civilization and most people, and to return to a stone age, where the unpleasant (to them) egalitarianism brought about by technology and energy are banished forever.
tobias says:
April 2, 2013 at 1:30 am
“@Agoy,
Not at you personally, but I hope they don’t, we need culling”
Are you a German Green?
“Culling” is the point. When all of the poor have perished, then this AGW policy stuff will all workout.
let me know next time you go a night w/o power in -9 deg F (-35 F wind chill) like I do often due to unreliable electricity.
When an earthquake left us without power for an extended period, I realized I no longer had the right tools to deal with life on a more primitive level. Oil lamps, camping water purifier, wash tub, camp stoves, AAA battery powered clip on reading lamps for reading real books, games one can play with a low light level, fountain pen and a couple of bottles of ink, manual typewriter, heavy goose down comforter for winter, etc. makes life a lot more comfortable. If you have enough food in the pantry, it’s even fun, for awhile. Easy enough to have stuff on hand, just in case.
Arthur4563
How did you arrive at your figures of 80,000 acres of solar panels to generate igw. Much appreciate your reply