From The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser
Met Office Apologises For Wrong Forecast – And Makes Another One
Warm Bias: The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record
Met Office apologises for warning of ‘dry spell’ before wettest April on record. —The Daily Telegraph, 29 March 2013
For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely. —Met Office forecast, 20 December 2012
Sub zero temperatures, snow, blizzards, gale force gusts, school closures, traffic chaos that just about sums up March 2013. The Met Office has confirmed it looks like it could have been the coldest in the UK for 51 years. —ITV News, 28 March 2013
If you want a laugh I recommend reading the Resilience Of England’s Transport Systems In Winter, an interim report by the DfT published last July. It is shockingly complacent. Rather than look for solutions to snow-induced gridlock the authors seem intent on avoiding the issue. The Met Office assured them “the effect of climate change is to gradually but steadily reduce the probability of severe winters in the UK”. –Daily Express, 3 December 2010
Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre’s predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this? —Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010
Britain will be colder than parts of Greenland this Easter with temperatures plunging to an Arctic -10C (14F). Though the clocks go forward tomorrow night, marking the start of British Summer Time, there is no end in sight to the bitter weather. This has already been the coldest March since 1962, the Met Office confirmed yesterday, and the fourth coldest since records began. –Lianne Kolirin, Daily Express, 29 March 2013
The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months.” A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: “Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful.” –Roger Harrabin, BBC News, 28 March 2013
The [Met Office’s] probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race. It provides an insight into which outcomes are most likely, although in some cases there is a broad spread of outcomes, analogous to a race in which there is no strong favourite. Just as any of the horses in the race could win the race, any of the outcomes could occur, but some are more likely than others. — Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo, BBC News, 28 March 2013
It all makes perfect sense to me. When the Met Office makes a statement, the opposite is true. So the earth is cooling, their models don’t work and they are pretty useless at forecasting. Now I understand what they told John Beddington. —Schrodinger’s Cat, 29 March 2013
“She says last year’s calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic.” So, using Slingo logic, the statement “The Met Office is probably a criminal waste of money” is not wrong. —David Chappell, 29 March 2013
In both winter and summer, year on year temperature variations in recent years are pretty normal, or even low, when compared with the historical record. Could it be that the UK’s Chief Scientist, Sir John Beddington, is overreacting to the events of just one year, or is not aware of the historical facts? It is difficult to understand how a top scientist could make such basic errors, but it is hard to come to any other conclusion. Coming hard on the heels of Environment Agency head, Chris Smith, making unsupportable claims about convective rain without first checking, it appears that facts no longer matter to our public servants. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 27 March 2013
Complaining about the weather has reached epidemic proportions in northern Germany this “spring.” And with good reason. With Easter just around the corner, meteorologists are telling us this could end up being the coldest March in Berlin and its surroundings since records began in the 1880s. —Spiegel Online, 28 March 2013
No one seems upset that in modern Britain, old people are freezing to death as hidden taxes make fuel more expensive. Instead of making sure energy was affordable, ministers have been trying to make it more expensive, with carbon price floors and emissions trading schemes. –Fraser Nelson, The Daily Telegraph, 29 March 2013
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
‘Perry’
Second thoughts: you suggest that the politicians responsible for the UK’s disastrous energy policy should be locked out in the cold this weekend. I suggest that they should be locked up, or if we are feeling charitable, sectioned under the Mental Health Act.
Is there an interpreter on this thread who can help me out with the following Met Office 3 month forecast? What language is it? What does it mean? Thanx.
tadchem says:
March 29, 2013 at 8:31 am
This begs the question: If a day or three of weather that runs above/below average in temperature/pressure, wind/humidity is simply weather, how many days must such a pattern persist before it can be considered to represent a ‘climate trend’?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
How about a decade or so? You can see the snowfall between the years 1979 to 1995 was a lot less that that on either side. Fall (October) snow fall for the Northern Hemisphere: graph and for november “Data were provided by the Global Snow Laboratory, Rutgers University. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during November 2012 was above-average, ranking as the fifth largest on record for the month, and marked the fourth consecutive November with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere…. The autumn season (September-November) snow cover extent was above average, and ranked as the 10th largest (37th smallest) in the 47-year period of record.”
Hudson Bay Ice growth as of December vs last five years. Graph
A look at Greenland temperature and snow accumulation during the Holocene GISP2 Ice Core Graph
They can ‘adjust’ temperatures but it is a bit hard to ‘adjust’ snowstorms. People tend to notice when you predict warm and there is a blizzard outside. Heck it was 25F (-4C) yesterday in NC, in 2010in the first week of April we had temperatures of 91F (37C) and yes that is a min and max comparison but the Daffys noticed and just started to bloom today. BRRRRrrrrr
The difference between (1) individuals committed to the science rather than (2) individuals committed to the organization (corrupted by commitment to a cause) …
.
I drove down the Thames [4 up] at Old Windsor to Runnymeade and returned in my Mini Cooper ‘S’ in March 1963, the Thames having been frozen since January. Nothing new here….. At least we had many coal fired power stations and coal fires to keep us warm. 🙂
Come on Thorium Salts and raise your highly efficient/safe head and plenty of Shale Fracking too. The huge oil reserves in the near Atlantic will help too. Oh No! Cameron wants us to use wind and solar power – Doh!
Ian W says:
March 29, 2013 at 9:16 am
While all the comments about the lack of skill of the Meteorological office are valid, I find one area that is totally unacceptable:
In the UK “ someone dying of the cold every seven minutes during winter and since 2003 250,000 UK citizens have died from the cold….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
link and do not forget the Liverpool Care Pathway.
There is one person who always gave accurate weather forecasts. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMAt8ZXqtbc
How can the Met Office claim that Climate Change will “steadily reduce the probability of severe winters” at the same time as others claim that Climate Change causes extreme weather?
Someone has got it wrong….
Harry Trent says: “In the old days, when the Met Office was run by, y’know, actual meteorologists rather than green activists, it actually helped us win the Second World War.”
Are you sure you won? The UK is currently ruled by a coterie of unelected oligarchs from a European city starting with B. Look carefully, and you’ll see that your present government has all the qualities of a puppet regime.
Breaking news!
30,000 people could have died this past UK winter due to climate change.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/383823/Deaths-up-by-30-000-in-big-freeze
The last story from the post was the Telegraph which pointed me to Radi-Aid for Norway. Funny stuff.
http://youtu.be/oJLqyuxm96k
jorgekafkazar says: March 29, 2013 at 10:51 am Yes we are certain we won the second World War, but we also know that our politicians lost the following Peace.
This amounts to tyranny considering the economic and budget conditions in the UK. How many years did they put up with it before the Magna Carta was forced through?
Cooling is warming. Effect is cause. Freedom is slavery.
From global warming to climate change to extreme weather events and now cooling is the new warming
ralfellis says:
March 29, 2013 at 10:17 am
……But actions like this do not suggest mere financial gain as a motive – they smack of an insideous ideology that these people are upholding. But if it is an ideology, rather than greed, it is quite a widespread ideology (worldwide, no less).
It is called ‘Common Purpose’ a network that hides in plain sight. Happily implementing Agenda 21 for the UN. If you google “common purpose” and a politician’s name – you will almost always find they are linked.
You can tell when a group has been ‘assimilated’, words like ‘sustainable’ start appearing.
Ms Slingo was on Radio 4 (UK) this morning explaining why the Met Office forecast last April was 100% WRONG although it wasn ‘t put quite like that. I was driving the car at the time and it was the closest I had come to an accident for some time. Listening to the “Science is Settled” BBC interviewing Ms Slingo was as sickening as it can get. At one stage the interviewer when told the MO get 65% accuracy on their forecasts said, …”that’s sounds quite good actually”!
Anyway I’m aware many of you are from outside the UK so here is a link to the BBC website giving details of the programme – it’s in “time” order so scroll to 7.09am for the I/V. See the tweets as well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01rgjj6/live
The [Met Office’s] probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race.
Surely should read:
The [Met Office’s] improbabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race.
Either way I wouldn’t bet on it.
Perhaps they should have nagging doubts by now about their long term climate forecasts or do they still have the blinkers on, jumping to conclusions? Is the truth just one hurdle too many? Will they ever be first past the post? They are running in the wrong colours and the going is too soft with computer models that are their biggest handicap.
OK I’ve been pulled up before falling at the last..
jorgekafkazar says:
March 29, 2013 at 10:51 am
////////////////////////////////////////////
It is clear that the UK was the biggest loser of the war. Russia, America and Germany were the victors.
I live in the very south of England where the climate is said to be the most clement. Tonight (29th March) at 2100hrs the temperature outside is just over 2C with a prevailing wind of 8 -10 knots, gusting frequently to 15 knots and higher.
The gas pressure in the mains has dropped considerably, heating my living space is now a much lengthier and much more expensive proposition because there is a shortage of gas. The top five executives of Centrica, one of our major gas suppliers took home a total of £16.5 MILLION. Five people took over 16 million pounds while I cannot afford next month’s heating bill. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9958231/Centrica-executives-enjoy-16.4m-payday.html
The A-hole Edward Davey, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (those two portfolios should NEVER be combined) states that increasing my energy bill is going to save me money!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9955878/Tackling-climate-change-doesnt-cost-the-earth.html
Go figure.
I’m gong long on logs. I can’t afford a generator.
Stephen Wilde says:
March 29, 2013 at 8:59 am
“As far as I know I present the only coherent overview currently available which fits observations and basic physical principles.”
I have read thousands of valid coherent views, yours is not the only one 🙂
I’ve read old scientific papers and even newspaper articles from as far back to the 1800’s that show a coherent overview of scientific observations on solar activity etc.. that fit basic physical principles and what drives activity on earth in regards to gravitational and magnetic activity, tides, weather and climate, on monthly, decadal and on large geological time scales, as I see it there has been a lot of science dismissed, forgotten or ignored from the past only to be rediscovered centuries later as having some validity. Just because the an official public Met office or large scientific institutions ignore and don’t study or implement other coherent Scientific observations preferring instead to implement their own theories and views, it does not mean this science does not exist.
I went to a strict uniformed school where we were caned and beaten daily by bullying teachers, I’ve seen and experienced first hand some horror stories of what authority figures can be like, and when they are proved to be wrong. If you proved these teachers wrong, instead of being rewarded for your effort or hear an admission, more often than not you could end up with 10 of the best sometimes even a black eye or have to spend the day enduring some kind of strenuous torture of one kind or another, teachers actually used to converse openly about effective punishments. So don’t expect Apologies or admissions from the current AGW regimes and policy makers you prove wrong, just like when corporal punishment was banned in schools the wicked that enforced it on students, will just reassuringly pretend to themselves; they were only doing their job and what they’ve been told to do and just become silent.
Slingo and the Met Office are utterly utterly useless.
The problem is the Met office and many others are trying to extract a trend from observational data that has a large amount of natural inter annual and decadal variability.
The small trend they think they observe is probably more an artefact of confirmation bias than anything to do with AGW. The UK temperature record shows no trend from 1910 to 1987 and only after 1987 does a trend appear, this caused me in 2003 to speculate to the Met office that confirmation bias was indeed at work.
I received a polite letter from them, ignoring my point and assuring me their robust modelling indicated that I would soon be enjoying a UK climate similar to the South of France. I resisted the temptation to order the sun awnings, and instead ordered a full set of Berghaus Artic Explorer clothing, it has come in useful!
Errors such as these prove the Met Office needs a more-expensive computer.
Resourceguy says:
March 29, 2013 at 11:42 am
This amounts to tyranny considering the economic and budget conditions in the UK. How many years did they put up with it before the Magna Carta was forced through?
*
YES! I was wondering that very thing, and I’m Australian.