
UPDATE: I’ve answered questions from commenters below in the FAQs, and added additional diagrams – Anthony
Much to the chagrin of people who are sure I’m evil, in the pocket of big oil, and highly carbon positive, I’m actually an independent and pretty energy efficient guy, and I challenge any of my detractors to show their solar and energy efficiency projects. Put your money where your mouthpiece is, I say. For example, do loud climate campaigners Joe Romm and Bill McKibben have solar power on their homes? Do Jim Hansen and Michael Mann have solar power while telling us we all must cut back our energy usage linked to fossil fuels? Inquiring minds want to know.
Readers may recall last summer that I put up my third solar power project, my first being on my older home, then a large 125KW solar project I started as Trustee for the Chico Unified School District. My third project is doing quite well, and a number of readers have asked for an update on my original article as they are considering doing what I have done. This being the day of the electricity denying “Earth Hour”, I thought it would be a good day to write about how I’m beating my electric bill. You see, while many tout the supposed CO2 saving properties of solar panels, my impetus is entirely different: I’m hedging against California’s exorbitant green-driven utility rates.
For example, see below from my bill last year when temperatures went up in the summer, and tell me if where you live you come anywhere close to paying what I do.
Above: my actual rate and costs from last summer June-July 2012.
Thanks to PG&E’s new smart-meter system, they can now gouge me more efficiently and on schedule, when I need electricity to keep cool the most. I doubt there’s anyone reading this entry that pays 93 cents per kilowatt-hour to keep their home cool in summer.
I (along with millions of others in California) pay what I call a “location tax” due to my living in California’s Sacramento Valley, where summer temperatures regularly hit and exceed 100F. The majority of California’s population, living along the coast, don’t see temperatures anywhere near that, and thus don’t have similar air conditioning issues.
And, with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) running amok with cap-and-trade regulation frenzy, with refusal of coal and nuclear energy, relying on green wind power mostly for the future, combined with a looming national Carbon Tax, finding a way to generate your own electricity is in my opinion, the best hedge against future cost increases. Climate concerns don’t even rate with me on this issue, I’m thinking more about my financial future and the health and comfort of my family, and that’s why I got a solar system – it’s a hedge against the green energy and climate madness.
Here’s how I beat the green menace and PG&E.
Remember back in December when climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann was so out of touch that he couldn’t even conceive that I could do calendars for myself (I sent him a free one), but instead it must have been some nefariously funded production? Well, he probably can’t conceive of how I put up my own solar system either, since like the Josh Calendars, I did it using COSTCO and some sweat equity.
Here’s a few FAQs.
1. Did “big oil” or some other entity pay you to do this?
No.
Did you use government grants to do this? No. Did you get money from the WUWT tip jar or calendar sales to do this? No.
So how did you pay for this? Simple. I took out a low-interest loan against my savings account the contents of which was then converted to a certificate of deposit spanning five years. I’ll have the solar system paid for in five years, and the CD will be free at that time. Then I’ll have a solar system and my savings principal intact plus I’ll get interest on the certificate of deposit. Basically I’m trading my PG&E electric bill for a financing bill for five years.
How much did it cost? About $25,000 and change, fully installed, plus shipping and tax on the hardware portion.
2. Why didn’t you get one of those “no money down” solar systems being advertised today?
I’m borrowing and adapting a popular credit card slogan to best explain this: “ownership has its advantages”. I looked into several of these other plans, and when I penciled out the entire scheme, it didn’t make much financial sense, and at the end of the lease, I either had to buy the system at “fair market value” (to be determined) or they come and remove the system. And given the number of solar company bankruptcy/failures out there (think Solyndra), I was concerned that I’d be straddled with a system that was orphaned due to the company going out of business and the debt purchased by some holding company, who could then argue that previous contracts were “null and void” due to such bankruptcy and “oh, by the way here’s your new payment schedule”. When you want to control your own destiny, relying on others is not a safe bet.
3. Grid-tied or battery storage?
It is a grid-tied system. Battery storage systems really don’t make any sense for a city dweller, as they are primarily off-the-grid type applications where you need independent power 24/7. This was primarily a financial consideration, not a power security one.
4. Did you get any government rebates?
No, there was a PG&E rebate program, which put about $1200 (based on my system size) back in my pocket, but as I said earlier, I got no government money related to this. There will be some small tax advantages for me.
5. Does it make any noise or heat?
No, the inverters are essentially silent, except for one small fan. The inverters do make some waste heat, but they are mounted outside, and not an issue. The solar panels actually help keep the house a bit cooler, as they absorb sunlight for a good portion of the roof space, which otherwise would have gone to heating the attic.
6. Has it saved you money?
Yes, absolutely. More details follow.
7. How does your power bill work now?
We get a quarterly summary showing our electric use/surplus, and a year-end “true up” bill to balance any difference. We still have to pay for natural gas usage separately.
8. How big is it? How much power?
36 panels, of 250watts each, for a maximum DC output of 9000 watts (9KW). Of course that’s under optimal sun angle and atmospheric conditions, and with DC to AC power conversion loss, the real max is closer to 6500 watts of AC power. Typical days run anywhere from 4500-5500 KW at peak sun. I opted for the better monocrystalline (blue color) panels rather than the polymorphous (brownish) solar panels as they are more efficient and longer lasting.
9. (added) How soon do you expect to be able to pay back your investment?
If I assume a linear payback rate, it would be about 12 years. However, I think it will be closer to 9 years based on my estimates of what the future holds. First, a look at recent rates by state:
Source: http://www.pacificpower.net/about/rr/rpc.html
Now, look at the forecast for residential electricity prices. It isn’t linear.
Source: US Department of Energy
10. (added) What is your cost of capital?
The way my loan is setup, guaranteed against a certificate of deposit earning interest, the APR works out to 0.8%. Over 5 years, that works out to be $511.66 for the cost of the loan.
11. (added) How does the mounting system affect your roof integrity? Will you get leaks?
The installation was guaranteed to be leak free, and after this winter rains, I can testify to that. The way the roof mount works, the screws used to secure the rack support post are put under a metal “flashing” cone, and screwed in with a sealant applied to the screw threads. This guarantees that there’s no rain penetration because the flashing not only prevents the screws from getting rain in the first place, the flashing acts just like another shingle. Here’s a diagram I prepared showing how it works:
See a descriptive animation here: http://www.unirac.com/video/animations/solarmount-i/index.html
12. Why didn’t you go with larger panels (like the 300 watt panels of the same size).
Because the volume pricing COSTCO had arranged (at that time) did not offer that size. Adding my 2% COSTCO rebate combined with the lower overall cost made the 250watt panels a no-brainer.
Specs on the panels are here:
GRAPE SOLAR 250W MONO PDF
13. How was the system shipped?
It arrived by truck as two large pallets, plus a third long package of rails. I stored these in my garage, unpacked them, and hauled the shipping materials to my office dumpster.
14. What about possible hail damage?
The rated impact resistance: hail diameter of 28mm (1.1″) with speed of 86km/h. (53mph)
These panels are really tough. My installer says you can drop them from the roof onto the concrete and they’ll survive just fine (he’s done it by accident more than once). here is a video and a news item that suggests the panels are tougher than the roofing.
News item:
Surprisingly little damage to rooftop solar panels
The epic hailstorm did surprisingly little damage to the tens of thousands of pricey solar-power arrays built on metro Phoenix rooftops in recent years.
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/20110930biz-hailstorm1002solar.html
======================
Purchasing the system
As I mentioned, I used COSTCO to buy the entire hardware system. They resell from a company in Oregon called “Grape Solar“. Here’s their largest package:
I actually wanted more power than that, so I contacted Grape Solar directly, described my needs, showed my house roof plan and power bills, and they came up with a custom design for me at no charge. Here’s the line item summary of what I bought:
I did a lot of research on this system, and found it was well designed and likely to live up to its claims, 8 months in, so far so good.
NOTE: Detailed instructions on how to order your own system from COSTCO follow at the end of this article.
Here’s links to manuals (PDF) on the items above:
- Grid-tied Solar System Layout Example
- Solar System Install Guide
- Solar Panel Specification Sheet
- PV Power Inverter Manual
- Solar System Quickstart Guide
I particularly like the Kaco Blue Planet DC to AC PV inverters, which are compact, quiet, efficient, and good-looking to boot. Here they are (5000 watt and 3500 watt models) on the side of my home with the PG&E SmartMeter. DC power comes in at the conduit from the solar panels at top right, AC power exits at bottom left in the curved conduit to junction box to tie into my AC mains breaker box.
=======================
Installing the solar system
While I “could” have done the entire installation myself, having mad electric and electronic skills, I opted to have someone experienced in this particular technology do it for me. The Grape Solar company contact gave me a list of certified installers in the area, and I called each of them up and asked them questions. The guy who held up under my intense questioning (A fellow in Redding named Baran Galocy) got the job. For some of the installers, I knew more than they did, never a good sign. Choose wisely.
Plus, this fellow was willing to work with me to trade some sweat equity for a lower installation cost. Since a good portion of time is spent in transport, unpacking, staging, and disposal of packaging, I opted to perform those tasks in sync with his job schedule to save labor time and thus money. Check with an installer you might choose to see if they will do the same for you.
Permits, of course are required. The first step was getting a city work permit, so that the city could get their “cut”. I say this because their inspection was total BS, the inspector never opened a panel box or climbed on the roof to inspect panels. He was most interested in whether mandated warning labels like this below (to protect the stupid) were properly applied. Your mileage in your city may vary. Fortunately the installer handled getting these, keeping my blood pressure down.
The next step was to put up the UNIRAC mounting system on the roof:
This took about three partial work days to complete, since only mad dogs and Englishmen work on rooftops in the midday summer sun. Here it is completed:
The next step was placing and securing panels, while doing base panel wiring:
Note the ladder contraption at the right. This is carpet remnants secured to ladder and rooftop. Shown in red to the left of the ladder is a nylon rope hawser with clips I designed that allows the man on top to pull up the panels while I push from below. This saves your back, plus virtually eliminates the possibility of dropping them and/or an injurious fall. The carpet prevents the panels from being scratched or damaged while they are pulled up.
This paneling operation took about two partial work days to complete.
Finally, the last step was to hang the inverters on the outside wall and to finish all the interconnect wiring. which took about another day.
Waiting for the city building inspector and for PG&E to “approve” the installation for grid connect took far longer than the actual installation. Then I discovered that PG&E changed one of their forms in the middle of the process, and we had to re-do the paperwork. While the install was competed in August, we didn’t actually get the final connect and switchover to net metering until December. Ain’t bureaucracy grand? I was just unlucky, you can figure about 2-4 weeks in most cases.
==========================
Results!
Here is a photo of my SmartMeter running today at about 940AM:
The 5.01 kW reading is my instantaneous generation, note at the right side it says “Received”. If I am using more power than I generate (or it is nighttime) that will switch to say “Delivered”. So now as I’m writing this, I’m 5kW net positive at my home.
At the top, in the big numbers is the summation of Kilowatt-hours over the lifetime of the meter. When the meter is delivered, it is set to read 00000. If I am using more electricity than I generate, it will show a net positive value (i.e 00234) if I have generated more electricity than I used, it will go backwards from 99999 and as this shows I’m at 99340, leaving a surplus of 660 Kilowatt-hours since the system was switched over in December. most of December and January was fairly overcast here, so my biggest gains have been recent, as shown in my SmartMeter summary online (highlighted in Yellow), I’ve now surpassed energy-efficient homes in my area:
My usage has gone negative:
Nice to see the money flowing to me too, here’s my quarterly bill:
Unfortunately, I still have to pay all those taxes and fees amounting to $4.66, even though I’m a net generator rather than a consumer, but I’ll take the deal.
================
How this works
The strategy is simple, generate/save as much electricity as you can during non-summer months, bank it (as shown on the meter) and then draw against that bank of generated energy during the summer or when you need power. Hopefully at the end of the true-up period, I’ll end up with surplus, in which case PG&E is now mandated by state law to send me a check. Amazingly, it didn’t used to be that way, and they were getting free surplus electricity.
If at the end of the true-up period, I used electricity, I pay for that then. Since I’m able to watch usage online and on the SmartMeter, it should be manageable to ensure we come out ahead (unless we have an extended heat wave). No matter what though, we are pretty much free of the tyranny of the 90 cents per kilowatt-hour in the summer when tiered rates kick in to punish us valley dwellers.
More info on the net metering program is here: http://www.pge.com/en/myhome/saveenergymoney/solarenergy/solarupgrade/index.page
=========================
Do you want one for yourself? Here’s how you can help yourself and help me in the process.
Since I’ve done all the work of documenting the process, the Grape Solar Company has agreed to offer me a finders fee for anyone who purchases a similar system through them via COSTCO. Here’s how to do it:
1. Contact Steve Bouton or Garret Towne at Grape Solar via telephone or by email:
Grape Solar, Inc. 1305 South Bertelsen Road, Eugene, Oregon 97402
Tel: 541.349.9000 Fax: 541.343.9000
Email: steven.bouton “at” grapesolar.com or garret.towne “at” grapesolar.com
2. Tell them you read this article, give them my name so they will credit me.
3. Give them your details, they will design a system to suit your needs free of charge. They’ll need your address, description of your view of the sky to the south (sometimes visible on Google Earth) plus your goals for electricity saving, (full replacement, supplemental, add as you go, etc.). Arrange financing if need be – note how I used my local bank to finance a loan against my savings account for a win-win.
4. Grape Solar will set you up with a custom order you can place on COSTCO.com that will include everything you will need. Then contact an installer. They’ll also supply a list of installers in your area if you don’t wish to do the work yourself. As I mentioned, you may be able to do some work yourself to help the installer to save money. Be sure to ask.
5. You’ll make the order with COSTCO, either you’ll need a credit card with a high limit or you’ll have to wire the money to COSTCO (which is what I did). BE SURE TO ASK TO HAVE YOUR COSTCO MEMBERSHIP NUMBER APPLIED TO THE SALE. This will ensure that if you have an account that gives you a rebate for year total purchases, you’ll get that year-end 2% cash back. 2% of a $20K system is $400, well worth the effort!
6. You have your installer get work permits and do the paperwork with your local utility company – this is key. Without these being done right, you are dead in the water. make sure your installer will do these for you.
7. Install the system – get it inspected and turned on. Submit final paperwork to your local utility company for any rebate programs they may have.
8. Keep all your paperwork for tax time – you may be eligible for tax credits – check with your tax preparer.
9. Enjoy a lower or zero power bill
============================
I hope this gives everyone who is interested the path forward. if you have questions about this please ask in comments. – Anthony
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Very interesting. Nice work Mr Watts. Here in South Australia, we pay $0.29 to $0.41 (stepped at fixed consumption levels) all year round. 90c is certainly excessive. Yearly electricity bills here for a family home average out at $800 to $1000. So how does that compare with California? Last years rise (18%) included a portion (4%) purely to finance the feed in tariff paid to the solar panels owners.
So my direct personal contribution is about $80 a year to help finance the FIT for all of the solar panel owners. Nice huh. What most solar panel owners (in Adelaide) do not know is that a portion in their own bill goes towards the FIT as well!
As a side note, our wonderful Carbon Tax that is apparently saving the planet, is not listed on our bill, and apparently my energy supplier can’t tell me what it is either. What a scam!
http://eyesonbrowne.wordpress.com/2012/12/29/how-much-is-the-carbon-tax-on-my-electricity-bill/
The sooner solar is perfected, the better, Petroleum is too valuable as a source of chemicals to burn when there is something cheaper to use. The main problem with intermittent power like wind and solar is lack of suitable storage. Batteries have been in development for over 100 years and are still $100 a pop to replace for your cordless drill, despite the appearance that every contractor and hobbyist in the world is using them. The price has been going up, not down, it seems. Supercaps may be the answer. Note, I own no LED or supercap stock, though I did own some CREE stock years ago. Electric motors are ideal for powering transportation, but suffer the same storage problem as power generation.
.
LED lighting is about perfected as far as usability, long life, and color are concerned, Its time to stop subsidizing fluorescent, which after many decades of development is still flickery, has poor color, does poorly in cold, and contains mercury which may or may not be present in dangerous quantities. But mainly I’m tired of changing the damn things when they fail prematurely which happens far too often.
Normally I’m against government interference, but there are some low hanging fruit that need to be picked in the natural interest in order to reduce petroleum imports, and LEDs have a US manufacturer, CREE, which makes the product from fabbing the wafers to producing the lamps. I’m waiting for them to come out with plug-in replacements for 8 foot tubes since I’m tired of replacing ballasts and I’d like them to be dimmable.
Green heads are exploding after reading this.
Battery storage for on-grid systems may become viable fairly soon. There is a company called Aquion Energy which has developed a battery technology which is showing great promise.
The batteries are relatively inexpensive, long-lived and efficient (you get out almost as much energy as you put in). They are also large and heavy so don’t expect to find them in electric cars.
With the crazy time-of-use pricing in California, these batteries could pay for themselves in a couple of years. You would buy cheap power at night and sell back expensive energy during the day. No solar panels or windmills required! article
Having said the above, I would still be wary of investing in a scheme that relies on nutso electricity rates. There is always the danger that the government will come to its senses. 😉
Chad Wozniak.
Thanks for the information, I have certainly not dismissed the idea of solar panels on our roof. We have a south facing back garden, double glazing, good loft insulation and a brick and breeze (“ash” I think you call it in the US) block construction. Currently (12:45pm it is 1.2 c (about 34f), windy and overcast, so the name of the game is heat conservation. In Summer we can sit outside and enjoy the heat absorbed by the bricks in the patio and house wall, long after the the front of the house has cooled to the low teens.The house is cooled by opening windows front and back to get a breeze through the house
I don’t plan to do anything until our government has some sort of coherent energy policy. Massive subsidies were available from our last government for surplus energy put back into the national grid. These have been cut (rightly so, in my view) by the present government. Current energy policy is about following illogical dictats from Brussells with it’s obsession with CO2 as opposed to keeping pensioners warm and our industries thriving. If energy becomes even more expensive, then I will have to do something, but if gas fracking and reinstatement of coal fired power stations occurs, then I will probably have wasted my money if I have fitted solar panels.
tobyw wrote, “The sooner solar is perfected, the better … ”
What needs to be done for solar to be considered “perfected?” What constitutes “perfect” solar? My view is that when solar is cost competitive (without government support) with alternatives it will be good enough. Nothing is ever perfect.
I see many comments about rates, kw usage, house size, location and such. I do not see anyone addressing a couple of simple but important things one can easily do to lower their electric bills. First is the temperature setting you choose. I live in SW Florida and I set my summertime thermostat at 84F; my wintertime setting is 65F. You simply dress appropriately when at home. I also have ceiling fans in every room and I leave windows open at night and in the early morning. Second, because the front of my house faces due west, I have planted plenty of bushes to shade the outside wall from the afternoon sun. I also change the a/c filters every 60 days and keep the water heater at 125F. These were easy things to do and over time have helped keep my bills low.
eric1skeptic: Can John or anyone else explain why I as a ratepayer should be buying your unreliable off-peak solar power at full retail prices? My electric company buys reliable power when it is needed for about 4 cents, but people with solar on their roof expect to get 14 cents?
Don’t know if I can, but I’ll have a go at it. Your electric company may pay 4 cents, but they’re selling it to you for 14. My production does not pump Colorado River water back up into Lake Meade; it mostly goes directly into my neighbor’s (hypothetically, your) home. And they’re charging you 14 for what I produce, including a surcharge for non-existent fuel costs. The issue here is not what you get charged, you pay 14 no matter the source of the power. The issue is how the 14 is to be fairly divided up. That quickly devolves into questions of avoided cost to the utilities, including transmission losses, infrastructure amortization and maintenance, etc, etc. Rightly or wrongly, current rules call for adjustment at the full retail rate, up to the point at which I return more than I have used. And at that point any further reimbursement is at something like the wholesale cost to the utility. The state has posted on-line responses to submissions made to the Public Utilities Commission by various interested parties (ranging from the major utilties PG&E, Edison, and San Diego, all the way down to Walmart) as they considered how to calculate that net producer reimbursement. It makes for instructive reading, as their task was to find an algorithm that would not penalize other utility customers.
I think the full retail rule is generally fair, unlike the rebates and tax incentives. In those cases, people of limited means are clearly subsidizing benefits to those who have the capital to install solar. I think there is a case for government to reasonably subsidize this emerging industry, but the subsidies should have gone to public installations, such as the school project that Anthony advanced.
So why did I apply for and accept both the utility rebate and the federal tax credit? I could put several arguments forward, none of which are completely satisfactory. First, I am a taxpayer and utility ratepayer also, so I am contributing, willingly or unwillingly, to these programs. Secondly, my contribution to the capital formation for these projects (1/3) is not insignificant. Third, I accept a disproportionate share of physical and economic risk in what remains an experimental enterprise. If the panels poop out after 5 years, or I have to make roof repairs that are much more expensive because of the installation, or if the hail does fall…. Finally, the high moral ground of refusing an unfair benefit does not really generalize well in a society headed doggedly in the direction of big government social programs. Consider all the other (special interest) exemptions and deductions we routinely claim on our federal taxes. Refusing to take them begins to make me a victim. I’m afraid we’re stuck with taking unfair advantage until there is a real movement toward general reform.
Anthony,
That’s a nice installation and it certainly seems to make sense where you live. And I certainly appreciate that you paid for it without any taxpayer subsidies. However, it seems that you depend on the power grid and remote generators to supply your power at night. How does PG&E recover the capital and maintenance costs for the power grid if you are using net zero power?
I find it interesting that Gavin thinks government regulation and taxation to artificially raise electricity prices and make renewables competitive are “market mechanisms.”
In a centrally-planned state-run economy maybe, but not a “free market” by any means.
Wow, makes me glad I don’t live in California. I pay about $6 per day for electricity during the summer, when temps regularly get up to around 100 degrees (central Utah). My house is about 2000 square feet on the main floor. My wife does not work outside the home, so we run the A/C all the time. If I had rates like yours, I’d probably do the same, but with an electric bill that’s under $200 in the summer and under $100 in the winter, it doesn’t make much sense.
Eyeballing your graphs and taking into account the P&G load-based charges, I’m guesstimating that you will save about $1K-$2K/year with this, so an ROI of 10-20 years? And, this is at the low end of what is possible in the US, given CA’s sunny weather and ridiculous energy policies. Of course, there is some degree of insurance policy here against major grid outages, so that’s got to be worth something these days. I’m guessing this independence factor is the real win.
Physics Major says:
March 24, 2013 at 6:46 am
“How does PG&E recover the capital and maintenance costs for the power grid if you are using net zero power?”
PG&E is getting a tad worried about how to allocate costs for the items you referenced as well as how to allocate the true costs of providing utility scale RE projects. As the rate schedules don’t reflect what it actually costs to provide power (how the rates are determined is accomplished via a political decision making process) in the residential market in the short term PG&E would like to add a small fee to everyone’s bills ($10.00) to get some revenue for the distribution, transmission and administrative costs to match what a lot of the public utilities charge their customers for some of these fixed costs.
With the large amount of utility scale RE coming on line in the state (to meet our 33%RES) PG&E would like to cap (make that eliminate) the net metering program. To make their cost recovery more complicated the large number of leased PV systems flooding the market has to be driving the utilities crazy trying to figure out who can/should/will pay for the long term PPA they had to sign to meet the RE standards. Their actual costs to obtain RE kwh generation from the utility scale RE projects is set by the long term PPA contracts that have time of delivery (TOD) factors that cause the price for summer peak time generation to be 2 to 3 times the merchant base price. This summer PG&E will be paying around $.23 for a kwh of generation from the utility scale PV facilities. By the time they can get that kwh to the places it can be used their transmission, distribution and administrative costs will bring their true costs to provide the energy to the $.30 to $.40 level.
We are in for some interesting times here in CA.
Derek Sorensen says:
March 24, 2013 at 3:30 am
It appears to me that Gavin Schmidt does not know what a market is.
Hint: PG&E is a monopoly provider.
Physics Major says:
March 24, 2013 at 6:46 am
How does PG&E recover the capital and maintenance costs for the power grid if you are using net zero power?
=============
Isn’t that an issue between PG&E and the regulators? They set the rules. The rest of us are simply players in the game.
What is likely to happen as more solar plants come online is that there will be a shift in pricing, such that power becomes very cheap when the sun is shining and very expensive when it is not. We see a similar thing in the wholesale price of power today. When there is too much power on the grid the price even goes negative, so that for example if Anthony was selling power back to PG&E at wholesale, he would have to pay them to take his excess. This would ensure PG&E recovers costs.
The problem is that politicians have stuck their noses in and created a mess by guaranteeing wholesale prices to their campaign backers regardless of supply. As a result solar producers have no incentive to cut back supply when there is too much power on the grid, which is a disaster in the making as more and more solar plants connect to the grid.
I recently corresponded with Gerard Aitken IV, son of the brilliant inventor Alvin Marks. He expects there to be a prototype for Lumeloid out by the end of the year (thanks in no small part to his efforts, which cost him $300,000, defending himself and Marks’ will against his own, less idealistic family members, who didn’t care about Marks’ beneficent intentions). Unlike the piddling ~23% that you’re probably getting, Lumeloid is expected to get about 80% efficiency; and furthermore, cost only pennies per watt (without a dime of subsidies, I believe; there’s a polymer substrate, which will just get tossed every year or so). I posted a few details here: http://my.firedoglake.com/metamars/2013/03/24/solar-energy-genius-vision-may-become-prototype-reality-by-the-end-of-the-year-lumeloid-35-85-efficiency/ . Perhaps you can convince him to post a diary, here at WUWT.
Perhaps the most interesting factoid that Gerard communicated to me is that Marks was opposed not just by “other companies” (who played dirty), but also “by our own government”.
John Slayton wrote, “I think the full retail rule is generally fair … ”
I disagree.
The utility’s fixed costs will be unchanged – they must be able to generate and distribute enough power to satisfy the demands of all their customers when the sun isn’t shining. This will come from coal, oil, gas, nuclear and hydro generating plants. The same distribution system will be required as well.
The utility’s variable cost for generating electricity will be no lower since they are using the same generators and fuel sources. The variable cost to the utility for electricity generated by Anthony will be far higher.
The amount of electricity sold by the utility will be lower because some customers will get some of their power from their own photovoltaic systems. This means that the utility’s fixed costs will be greater per unit of electricity sold so the regulators will have to allow a rate increase.
If the regulators require that the utility pay photovoltaic generators like Anthony the full retail price of electricity received (and sell it to retail users at the same price) there will be no margin available to pay the utility’s fixed costs on that power. The regulators will need to further increase rates to users.
So here we have a case where Anthony and others do the rational thing under current rules and save money by making others pay the capital costs associated with providing power to them (Anthony et al) when the sun doesn’t shine.
If the above doesn’t convince you of the idiocy of the regulators, think about this. Anthony spent over $25,000 (capital cost) on his system. If everyone in California did this, the total capital invested in electrical generation would be far greater than it is now. PG&E claims 5.2 million electricity customers and a depreciable plant base of over $37 billion. If one quarter of their customers made an investment similar to Anthony’s, that would be a $130 billion investment and the money to pay that would have to come from somewhere. To put that into perspective, PG&E’s 2011 revenue (gas and electric) was just short of $15 billion.
The only way to make a rational decision (rational for you and all the other users and ratepayers) about installing such a system is to sell excess power to the utility at a market rate and buy power from the utility at a market rate and then do the math as it applies to you.
http://www.pgecorp.com/investors/financial_reports/annual_report_proxy_statement/ar_html/2011/index.htm
https://www.pge.com/regulation/FERC-Form1/form1-2011.pdf
John Slayton, I appreciate your reply. The most compelling part of your argument is that you are getting full retail up to the point that you are using zero net, then you get some sort of wholesale price, no different than if you simply conserved power. The other part of that argument is that the utility has a smart grid to avoid transmission losses, etc. Obviously if you provided your surplus power directly to me with a dedicated wire from your house to mine, it would be worth less than the 14 cents I pay to my utility due to your unreliability. But a smart grid can alleviate part of that cost by avoiding transmission losses from far-away sources.
Still, on balance, I don’t think it makes economic sense for people like you and Anthony to be in the power generation business, whether solar or any other power source. Basically power generation should be done by dedicated providers with economies of scale. In Anthony’s case in California the peak in A/C is pretty close to the peak in solar. But that is not the peak of the demand curve (contrary to some posters above), it is basically in the evening.
93 cents/kWhr … ??? incredibale; it cost $0.02- 0.04 to produce.
Your energy use graph may be more relavent if it showed energy use versus humidity rather than temperature.
Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin
Evidence that market mechanisms can boost renewable energy installation even for ‘dismissives’ on climate change: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/23/an-update-on-my-solar-power-project-results-show-why-i-got-solar-power-for-my-home-hint-climate-change-is-not-a-reason/ …
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Is Gavin also in the “do as I say, not as I do” club? Along with Gore and the rest? Climate Hypocrites. Telling everyone else to have a smaller carbon foot print. And prepared to stomp anyone that doesn’t with their massive carbon footprint.
How many leaders in the National Acadamey of Sciences or the World Wildlife Foundation have smaller carbon footprints than your average citizen? How about zero?
Interesting, thanks.
You have not included your capital cost, which you appear to have kept somewhat modest. Your savings have to pay for the cost of capital. (Whether lost opportunity of otherwise investing your savings or cost of a loan, the capital does not come free. At today’s interest rates economics of payback are better.)
BTW, shouldn’t you be charging PGE the taxes? :o)
Mind, then you’d have to have a business license as a power producer (well, that’s “producer of power” you are a “power producer” in other fields), and register with the regulation fiefdom. 😉
Actually, the “Distribution” amount is probably a per-service-feed charge – common today to have such a charge, it makes sense as costs of the utility’s feed system is substantial (the distinction is fixed costs versus variable costs).
Your consumption history graph suggests that neighbours were turning on their A/C when the sun was shining early this year – their consumption went up, yours down. If so, should really be a split this summer.
PS: As an example of localization of WordPress et al’s ad insertions, the one after your article is for a local power company’s power-saving help.
REPLY: The way my loan is setup, guaranteed against a certificate of deposit earnign interest, the APR works out to 0.8%. Over 5 years, that works out to be $511.66
– Anthony
Stephen Richards says:
March 23, 2013 at 12:26 pm
It is an inverted Robin Hood scheme and that really bugs me. However, for all those that want to game the system I say good luck. I chose not to.
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If we all chose to game the system it would collapse and cure the inverted Robin Hood scheme. By choosing not to participate, you are making it less painful to the politicians and their backers that benefit the most, allowing the system to continue.
Get out there and do your part to grab everything the politicians put in place to reward their friends with money. If there is one thing that bugs the rich most of all, it is when the common person is eating at the same table as they are.
This is pretty much the way I’ve analyzed it here in NC as well, except that our lower power prices make it a much longer — too long — amortization period. Basically in California they’ve artificially inflated prices to where your payback period is very, very short. In NC it is more like 15 years, some 60% into the (possibly) 25 year lifetime for the system. We also have more humidity and somewhat reduced generation potential, although during the summer we have plenty of hot sun (and need for extra power to run AC).
In MOST the country — almost certainly the southern half with its high AC bills and relatively good insolation — we’re within a factor of 2 of this sort of investment being a no-brainer, certainly in new construction where the money can be borrowed and rolled right into the cost of the house. It’s at least as good an investment as the one I made in high efficiency AC and heating systems and low-E windows (which cost twice as much as the cheaper ones but which recover their additional cost over 15 or so years).
Over the next 20 years, the free market is going to make this sort of investment a sensible one for many people, with or without subsidy or tax breaks, with or without artificial bumps in the cost of electricity. Now, if we could just get LFTR off the ground in the US, North Carolina alone has enough Thorium to run the US for a few thousand years, and it’s all mixed in to rare earth metals needed to make high efficiency generators and microelectronics. But for this to happen, the “Greens” who buy into the unproven religion of CAGW caused by CO_2 are going to have to get over their equally religious aversion to any sort of nuclear carbon free power.
rgb
OK Anthony, it is clear you are in the pay of Big Sun 🙂
Seriously, keep us informed how the economics, including maintenance, work out for you; how long does it take to get back the $13k ? An occasional follow-up on problems, bonuses and costs and savings would be valuable to others. Here in Canada, not much use. I can imagine in Australia it would be practical. Does the power output remain constant (per solar inpout of course) or does it slowly decline; how much is it affected by dust?
Clearly you put your money where your mouth is.