While looking for quotes on an upcoming post about Ocean Heat Content, I ran across the press release for a new paper (in press) by Neely et al, which blames the recent slowdown in global warming on smaller more moderate volcanos.
ADD ANOTHER REASON TO THE NON-CONSENSUS
Many readers will recall the October 2011 article by Paul Voosen titled Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming. The article presented the different responses from a number of climate scientists, including John Barnes, Kevin Trenberth, Susan Solomon, Jean-Paul Vernier, Ben Santer, John Daniel, Judith Lean, James Hansen, Martin Wild, and Graeme Stephens, to the question, “Why, despite steadily accumulating greenhouse gases, did the rise of the planet’s temperature stall for the past decade?” The different replies led Roger Pielke, Sr. to note at the end of his post Candid Comments from Climate Scientists:
These extracts from the Greenwire article illustrate why the climate system is not yet well understood. The science is NOT solved.
Judith Curry provided running commentary in her post Candid Comments from Global Warming Scientists. If you haven’t read it, it’s a worthwhile read.
NEW STUDY BY NEELY ET AL PRESENTS ANOTHER REASON
Neely et al 2013 (in press) blames moderate volcanos. According to a press release from the University of Colorado Boulder:
A team led by the University of Colorado Boulder looking for clues about why Earth did not warm as much as scientists expected between 2000 and 2010 now thinks the culprits are hiding in plain sight — dozens of volcanoes spewing sulfur dioxide.
The study results essentially exonerate Asia, including India and China, two countries that are estimated to have increased their industrial sulfur dioxide emissions by about 60 percent from 2000 to 2010 through coal burning, said lead study author Ryan Neely, who led the research as part of his CU-Boulder doctoral thesis. Small amounts of sulfur dioxide emissions from Earth’s surface eventually rise 12 to 20 miles into the stratospheric aerosol layer of the atmosphere, where chemical reactions create sulfuric acid and water particles that reflect sunlight back to space, cooling the planet.
The paper (in press) is Neely et al (2013) Recent anthropogenic increases in SO2 from Asia have minimal impact on stratospheric aerosol.
The abstract reads:
Observations suggest that the optical depth of the stratospheric aerosol layer between 20 and 30 km has increased 4–10% per year since 2000, which is significant for Earth’s climate. Contributions to this increase both from moderate volcanic eruptions and from enhanced coal burning in Asia have been suggested. Current observations are insufficient to attribute the contribution of the different sources. Here we use a global climate model coupled to an aerosol microphysical model to partition the contribution of each. We employ model runs that include the increases in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) over Asia and the moderate volcanic explosive injections of SO2 observed from 2000 to 2010. Comparison of the model results to observations reveals that moderate volcanic eruptions, rather than anthropogenic influences, are the primary source of the observed increases in stratospheric aerosol.
Bottom line: There’s still no consensus from climate scientists about the cause of the slowdown in the warming rate of global surface temperatures.
And of course, the sea surface temperature and ocean heat content reveal another reason: there hadn’t been a strong El Niño to release monumental volumes of warm water from below the surface of the tropical Pacific and shift up the sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans. Refer to my essay “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” and my ebook Who Turned on the Heat?
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Ian W / March 2, 2013 at 6:06 am “And now we are told that the reason there has been NO global warming for 15 years is because of volcanic aerosols?”
I admit, its difficult to understand: global warming is allready 15 years on the highest level of modern times, in the same time, there seems to be no accelaration (increase) for the moment;
this misunderstanding is caused because peole like Monckton and Morano to name a few show only the years with standstill, and not what was before;
Sean says:
March 2, 2013 at 7:14 am
“It looks very much to me like there are only two dials in the climate models of any significance, CO2 to make temperatures go up and volcanic aerosols to make temperatures go down.”
Were that right then everyone ought to switch to coal power.
When it gets cold we run as now with desulphurisation. If it gets too hot we save money by not scrubbing the flues.
Unfortunately, Sean is near certainly wrong. So he or she can’t conceive of a confounding factor? But that does not mean that there isn’t one.
Still, as simple models go it does lead to cheap policies.
I would like to see the data that show this increase of aerosols. I found this paper which seems o show declining aerosols? And are aerosols not a rather local phenomenon, so we would expect warming to continue in areas remote from those volcanoes?
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/895/2013/acp-13-895-2013.html
This could create problems for the alarmists. They didn’t want to attribute the current cooling to mankind so they claim it is natural. Of course, this means the cooling from 1950-1980 couldn’t have been man made aerosols either since more aerosols are produced now. That completely destroys their current theory and falsifies all the models. Oops.
It is amazing that solar variability is neglected. It has been shown in several papers that the sun’s variability is a quite large component in the variability of ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific area, and that the sunspot peaks influence the monsoons. Likewise, that the Gleissberg maxima and minima in the past 200 years influence the trends in circulation and temperature.
This study says volcanic activity slows global warming. A previous study by Marion Jegen, published in the journal Geology, says global warming causes an increase in volcanic eruptions. We now have a negative feedback that will keep warming in check. Problem solved!
Climatology has gone from an established and absolute science (in the minds of the Warmists0, to wild speculation and desperate hand waving as ever more studies contradict the ‘consensus’ and data alteration is exposed. Grants are at stake. Fame is at stake. There is a sense of panic.
And Ms Curry, bless her heart, knows it.
polistra says:
March 2, 2013 at 5:57 am
“Just looking at the variables, this is a remarkably stupid epicycle.”
Spot on! All the rest is just the details.
Alarmists are psychologically incapable of taking a step back from their analytical tools, models, and asking themselves what is wrong with the larger framework.
Their problem is one that turns up in all marketing endeavors. When you are lucky early and establish a brand, you will tend to ride that brand until it is stone dead.
MinB says:
March 2, 2013 at 6:51 am
“Why are so many of these studies doctoral dissertations? Is it just me, or is it hard to take these very seriously?”
Some graduate programs need to be terminated.
But China’s new coal fired power stations are designed to remove 95% of the SO2 They use fluidized bed boiler technology.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluidized_bed_combustion
and here
http://www.hcboiler.com/en/display.asp?id=90
kim says: March 2, 2013 at 6:08 am
Well, the obvious next step, sacrificing virgins.
_________________________
Can’t we sacrifice some old geezer instead? I kinda like the temple-priestess Vestal Virgins, and would like to show them the errors in their theology.
Sorry, old geezers, no offence, but…..
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Wamron says:
March 2, 2013 at 7:15 am
“The bottom line is this, ignore the immunising sophistry after-the-fact, concentrate on the main point: they knew about the volcanoes, but their hypothesis never predicted such an outcome. Hypothesis is wrong.”
Once again, the CAGW crowd is nailed. The CAGW crowd is flailing in ad hockery.
Or perhaps a lack of such volcanoes pushed up temperatures in earlier years.
Steven Mosher says: “if they agreed youd bitch that it was a conspiracy or that consensus didnt matter. If they disagree youd bitch that the science wasnt settled and remark that the sun explains it all.”
If this really was written by someone of this name, the lack of proper punctuation says volumes. Yes, I make “typos” now and then, but this is more than a typo. Halmark of a “narcicistic” personality. Sigh…
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BTW, the Biased Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has just run an item on the record snowfall in Japan. And the reason for all this snow? Yes, you’ve guessed it – Global Warming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21625702
You could not make it up. Do these people know how rediculous they sound? Can they see the dimensions of the hole they are digging? This can, and will, end up with the BBC being disbanded, as unfit for duty and public service.
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Oh, the reference to Global Warming in the BBC item is at 1min 05 secs.
According to http://volcanic-eruptions.findthedata.org/, the number of moderate volcanic eruptions has decreased compared to the 1990s: – same story for moderate/large, small, very large and colossal. Confused.
Steven Mosher says:
March 2, 2013 at 6:23 am
=====
At least you and I agree that no one knows squat
Martin van Etten says:
March 2, 2013 at 9:05 am
No, Martin–they didn’t say there was standstill before the past 15 years, just within the past 15 years. Is reading comprehension or logical thought your problem?
Postscript: Cold kills, remember? Warmth (along with abundant CO2) promotes life in the biosphere, of which we are a small part. Something to think about.
Rumours of our certainty, were very much exaggerated.
Reality seems to be causing a new disease amongst the faithful, I shall christen it, Grant withdrawal Stress Syndrome.
But it may be a much older disorder, Fear of being exposed for the phoneys they know themselves to be.
So old, a syndrome that we have a folk story, The Emperors New Clothes, to cover it.
If they had read Willis’ post on the effect of volcano’s on temperature it would have saved them lots of time and energy.
A model to study another model? That’s like Ms Pacman proving the existance of Pacman.
This is exactly like the disappearing 800 year lag CO2 after warming adjustments. There is a model and the modelers will search the data until they find something that conforms to the model.
Don Easterbrook says:
March 2, 2013 at 6:24 am
Your first 2 paragraphs are a combination of historical reflection and factual geologic aspects. That all seems reasonable enough to those of us of a certain age!
Your 3rd paragraph shifts to asking about “political scientists” although that specific group does not seem to be the real intent of your statement. Let’s instead think of the political classes and the self-thought-of élites. Such groups are not interested in the correlations you mention, and these can be dismissed because they are not combined into an explanatory whole easily grasped by a TV viewer. Compare this situation to that of “drifting continents” and so on (not well accepted or highly relevant to policy makers and élites) that eventually was popularly accepted under the heading of “plate tectonics.” This became science that could be used. When scientists can explain the “PDO, AMO, ENSO, etc” in a way the élites can use this to push their ‘agenda’ , they will shift from “ignore” to “embrace.” If earth scientists can show why the people ought to feel guilty about these things, so much the better. Follow the money, this is not about science.
Steven Mosher says:
if they agreed youd bitch that it was a conspiracy or that consensus didnt matter.
If they disagree youd bitch that the science wasnt settled and remark that the sun explains it all.
Hey Steven, I’m not bitching. I’m laughing!