Masters of disasters and Captain Uncertainty

From Stanford University

Preparing for climate change-induced weather disasters

The news sounds grim: mounting scientific evidence indicates climate change will lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather that affects larger areas and lasts longer.

However, we can reduce the risk of weather-related disasters with a variety of measures, according to Stanford Woods Institute Senior Fellow Chris Field.

Field will discuss how to prepare for and adapt to a new climate at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) meeting in Boston. Field’s talk, “Weather Extremes: Coping With the Changing Risks,” will be part of a symposium called “Media: Communicating Science, Uncertainty and Impact” 3-4:30, Feb. 16, room 204 of the Hynes Convention Center.

While climate change’s role in tornadoes and hurricanes remains unknown, Field says, the pattern is increasingly clear when it comes to heat waves, heavy rains and droughts. Field explains that the risk of climate-related disaster is tied to the overlap of weather, exposure and vulnerability of exposed people, ecosystems and investments.

While this means that moderate extremes can lead to major disasters, especially in communities subjected to other stresses or in cases when extremes are repeated, it also means that prepared, resilient communities can manage even severe extremes.

During the past 30 years, economic losses from weather-related disasters have increased. The available evidence points to increasing exposure (an increase in the amount and/or value of the assets in harm’s way) as the dominant cause of this trend. Economic losses, however, present a very incomplete picture of the true impacts of disasters, which include human and environmental components. While the majority of the economic losses from weather-related disasters are in developed world, the overwhelming majority of deaths are in developing countries.

Withstanding these increasingly frequent events will depend on a variety of disaster preparations, early warning systems and well-built infrastructure, Field says. The most effective options tend to produce both immediate benefits in sustainable development and long-term benefits in reduced vulnerability. Solutions that emphasize a portfolio of approaches, multi-hazard risk reduction and learning by doing offer many advantages for resilience and sustainability. Some options may require transformation, including questioning assumptions and paradigms, and stimulating innovation.

 

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Chris Field is the founding director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology and the Melvin and Joan Lane professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies at Stanford. He has been deeply involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. In 2008 he was elected co-chair of Working Group 2 of the IPCC, which released a special report, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation,” in 2012.

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Jimbo
February 19, 2013 2:56 am

The news sounds grim: mounting scientific evidence indicates climate change will lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather that affects larger areas and lasts longer.

It really does take cojones to start your article with a flat out lie. Where is the “mounting scientific evidence”???? Where is it???
Here is the mounting scientific evidence and observations.

Abstract – 2012
Persistent non-solar forcing of Holocene storm dynamics in coastal sedimentary archives
“We find that high storm activity occurred periodically with a frequency of about 1,500 years, closely related to cold and windy periods diagnosed earlier”
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1619.html#ref1

Conclusion – 2011
Long-term properties of annual maximum daily river discharge worldwide
Analysis of trends and of aggregated time series on climatic (30-year) scale does not indicate consistent trends worldwide. Despite common perception, in general, the detected trends are more negative (less intense floods in most recent years) than positive. Similarly, Svensson et al. (2005) and Di Baldassarre et al. (2010) did not find systematical change neither in flood increasing or decreasing numbers nor change in flood magnitudes in their analysis.
http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1128/2/documents/2011EGU_DailyDischargeMaxima_Pres.pdf

Abstract – 2011
Fluctuations in some climate parameters
There is argument as to the extent to which there has been an increase over the past few decades in the frequency of the extremes of climatic parameters, such as temperature, storminess, precipitation, etc, an obvious point being that Global Warming might be responsible. Here we report results on those parameters of which we have had experience during the last few years: Global surface temperature, Cloud Cover and the MODIS Liquid Cloud Fraction. In no case we have found indications that fluctuations of these parameters have increased with time.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2011.01.021

Abstract – 2006
[1] The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has produced a combined satellite and in situ global precipitation estimate, beginning 1979. The annual average GPCP estimates are here analyzed over 1979–2004 to evaluate the large-scale variability over the period. Data inhomogeneities are evaluated and found to not be responsible for the major variations, including systematic changes over the period. Most variations are associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. There are also tropical trend-like changes over the period, correlated with interdecadal warming of the tropical SSTs and uncorrelated with ENSO. Trends have spatial variations with both positive and negative values, with a global-average near zero.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025393/abstract

Abstract – 2011
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/full

See also observations.
No trends in extreme weather
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/27/another-paper-shows-that-severe-weatherextreme-weather-has-no-trend-related-to-global-warming/
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/09/new-paper-shows-warming-causes.html

johnmarshall
February 19, 2013 2:56 am

I suppose we will have to endure even more of this crap from those trying to hang on to their over paid jobs.
If you use models that assume the input of CO2, assume catastrophy then that is what you will get. For goodness sake CHANGE THE MODELS they are telling you LIES.

Chuck Nolan
February 19, 2013 3:55 am

imdying says:
February 18, 2013 at 12:34 pm
Actually what hes saying is technically true lol. Property nowadays is more expensive so the economic loss is greater even though the storm intensity has dropped or the flooding is weaker.
If he has a strategy to fight inflation i’ll love to hear it.
———————————
That’s easy.
Stop government overblown spending.
cn

Rob
February 19, 2013 5:46 am

Mosher ,it is sad, and at the same time frightening, to witness the speed of your transformation from logician to phony post-normal advocacy. It is not easy to link drought with warming, first because there is no recent warming and second current droughts are not historically normal. So you are worried that we are not prepared for experiencing events like occurred in our past when we were not warming? I think you’ve been exchanging too much saliva with Ravitz.

Rob
February 19, 2013 5:48 am

ERRATA …..not historically abnormal

Bruce Cobb
February 19, 2013 7:06 am

izen says:
February 18, 2013 at 11:02 pm
Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.
Even if they could show that “intensification of heavy precipitation events” has actually occurred over say the past 30 or 40 years (which is doubtful), they most certainly can’t show the human fingerprint. Oh, and the “human-induced increases in greenhouse gases” is just a convoluted way of saying that because of (assumed) manmade warming, there is an increased level of water vapor. But, keep on banging your bogus science drum, izen.

Dr. Lurtz
February 19, 2013 7:39 am

Less energy from the Sun should translate to a more mild weather system with less [not more] severe storms. As the cold moves from the Poles toward the equator, more snow [rain storms converted to snow] , later spring, fewer tropical hurricanes [less energy from the Sun]. This was the weather during the 1850s to 1900s.

Mindert Eiting
February 19, 2013 8:10 am

It was Al Gore who gave a few years ago the final definition of ‘extremely hot’, the earth below our feet, millions of degrees.

Jimbo
February 19, 2013 9:01 am

Izen says:

……………There were two recent research papers that conclusively show that extreme rain events are definitely increasing
…………………
…………….approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas.
………………substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

What part of global are you missing here???? I remember being constantly told that the Medieval Warm Period only affected parts of the northern hemisphere and was not global (though disputed). Your extracts flat out admit these ‘alleged’ attributions weren’t even global. So there. 😉

TomRude
February 19, 2013 9:15 am

Look at an ecofasc…friendly Province in Canada:
http://www.bcgreengames.ca/resources/for-parents/93-links.html
Agitprop to kids.

Jimbo
February 19, 2013 9:46 am

Steven Mosher says:
February 18, 2013 at 5:45 pm

“Nobody has shown any link between those weather events he lists and slight changes in the global average temperature, that’s pseudo-science at its worst.”

Actually, its pretty easy to do with heat waves. Most folks dont know that 40 cities around the world…

You know Steve, when I used to drive out of London on a hot summer’s day I noticed a noticeable drop in temperature as I headed out into the countryside. I wonder why? 😉

Jimbo
February 19, 2013 10:11 am

izen says:
February 18, 2013 at 11:02 pm
……………..
There were two recent research papers that conclusively show that extreme rain events are definitely increasing.
……………..
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7334/full/nature09762.html
Here we present a multi-step, physically based ‘probabilistic event attribution’ framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

Just 2 points:
1) “autumn 2000” is just the weather and not the climate. Trends are the key. The claim is over-confident for a 3 month period.
2) Let’s look at something a model prepared earlier:

An extreme value analysis of UK drought and projections of change in the future
………………However, when HadRM3 is forced at the boundaries by ERA-40 reanalysis data the extreme characteristics of low soil moisture are replicated by the model ensemble indicating that using the regional climate model ensemble to downscale from the coarse resolution of HadCM3 is appropriate. Projections of drought for the 21st century were estimated by applying non-stationary extreme value theory to these monthly drought indices. All drought indices show an overall increase in drought in the future. However, the spread of values is considerable ranging from little change or a slight decrease to a significant increase depending on ensemble member and, to a smaller extent, location. The impact of these projections are put in the context of the notorious UK drought of the summer of 1976.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.035

anengineer
February 19, 2013 10:32 am

The meeting was on the 16th, it is now the 19th.
Any idea what his recommendations were?

Tom O
February 19, 2013 12:12 pm

Hmmmm –
““Media: Communicating Science, Uncertainty and Impact” 3-4:30, Feb. 16, room 204 of the Hynes Convention Center. ”
Didn’t they misspell Hyenas?

Theo Goodwin
February 19, 2013 7:04 pm

ferd berple says:
February 18, 2013 at 10:18 pm
Very well said. Developers and local governments have constructed so many “levees” on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that they have shifted the flood plains – or maybe I should say that they have created new flood plains. As many informed people observed in 1993, the flood disaster in Missouri was mostly man made.

Theo Goodwin
February 19, 2013 7:07 pm

TomRude says:
February 18, 2013 at 10:54 pm
Thanks, Tom. That is what I thought. I asked because I am not up to speed on water vapor.

TomRude
February 20, 2013 10:12 am

You’re welcome Theo!