I thought I’d save a few forecast graphics now, to see how they hold up when the snow event is over. First, here’s the one from NWS Boston. I can’t say I much like their color scheme, as it gives a reverse visual impression (IMHO) to what the numbers say.
![StormTotalSnowFcst[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/stormtotalsnowfcst1.png?quality=75)
The probability map color scheme makes more visual sense to me:
![ProbSnow12[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/probsnow121.png?quality=75)
This is from the NWS Facebook Page:
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…MAJOR Blizzard Expected for Boston and New York City…
Total accumulations of 18 to 24 inches are expected for southeast Maine, eastern and southeast Massachusetts (including the Boston metro area), northern Connecticut and all of Rhode Island. Further south across eastern New York to Northern New Jersey, total accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected, including the New York City metro and Long Island. Light snow will develop by Friday morning, becoming heavy late in the day into the evening commute. The heaviest snowfall, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, will fall Friday night into Saturday. North-northeast winds gusting up to 60 mph will lead to blizzard and white-out conditions, creating life-threatening travel conditions. Damage to trees and structures with scattered power outages are anticipated.
In addition, moderate to major coastal flooding is expected from Portland, Maine to the east facing coastline of Massachusetts.
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Take a look at HPC’s Day 1-2 QPF. Although all eyes are on New England with the impending major winter storm, the East Coast is expected to get a good amount of rainfall over the next day or two. To see more information about this, visit our QPF page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-2.shtml
And for more information on the winter storm to affect New England, please visit the local Weather Forecast Office’s websites and our winter weather page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY... MAZ005>007-012>023-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-090100- /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130209T1800Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH... PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL... NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING AT TIMES... QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES...AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 60 MPH. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 FEET. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST OF SNOW ANTICIPATED BY THE EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. * IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE DAMAGE TO TREES AND STRUCTURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS. && $$
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Now here’s some private forecasts from WeatherBell/Dr. Ryan Maue, first a radar projection:
And accumulation from the Canadian RGEM model:
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according to the 4 major channels(whdh(ch7),wcvb(ch5),wbz(ch4) and fox whatever their number is) in my area that candadian map is showing the low end of what they are forecasting, looks like boston area- if i am reading that map right is only getting ~11-13″ while the local guys are saying most likely in the 18-24+” range with areas over 30″
i got my snowblower set. going to gohome from work in an hr or so and then have a fun weekend shoveling out with the kids.
That graphic from the NWS FaceBook page is one of the more conservative maps I’ve seen.
I like the weather coverage at NECN, in part because they cover all of New England. Their maps are at http://www.necn.com/02/08/13/bMatt-Noyes-bThursday-late-evening-final/landing_weathernewengland.html?blockID=829737&feedID=6240 , a good video segment (6 minutes) is at http://www.necn.com/weather . It describes a few things that are in the NWS statements and forecasts, but they point out the importance of the items too. Coastal flooding and erosion will be important.
I’m expecting 1- 2 feet of fairly fluffy snow and hopefully no power outage from the wind.
Anthony, I’m near Marshfield Ma., about 5 miles away from the ocean as the crow flies. Will let you know what I end up with. Inland should get more fluffy snow but I expect a wet heavy 10 inches or so. (Ho Hum). Inland will get more light stuff and we will see how it all adds up.
In the meantime the Governor has issued executive orders that everyone except non-essential personnel are allowed on roads and that power companies WILL NOT restore power until after the storm.
BTW, I have one of your stories ready to fly at another site,
BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC
I will add the WWF funding bombshell in the comments when published. Thanks for all you do.
john from DB.
I have seen one model forecasting 42 inches for the northern suburbs of Boston…
I hope no one gets THAT much snow… 3.5 feet (1.08 meters or so) with 50+ mph wind gusts would NOT be good.
This may indeed be a significant or major blizzard but lets also remember the blizzard of March 12-15,1993 , which set air pressure readings as low as a category 3 hurricane . It covered 26 states along the entire eastern half of US and the eastern half of Canada. 270 people were killed due to the blizzard . Snow falls hit as high as 56 inches in Tennese mts. Pittburgh got 25 inches , Syracuse 43 inches. Winds in Nova Scotia reached 131 miles per hour . One can see that these kind of storms have happened throughout our history and have little to do with global warming or climate change due to global warming . They are part of the natural climate change pattern that happens now and then . There may have been even worse ones back in 1740/1741 and 1748/1749
Fantastic ensemble of graphics. Thank-you Anthony.
I am underneath that, so I especially thank-you.
Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.
Here in Brooklyn, I suspect we will not even get a foot. Snow amounts are incredible ripe for exaggeration: they yield high media ratings, fundingl; and when The Horrible doesn’t acutally happen, a majority of people feel relief rather than deceived. Well, hope I’m wrong, and NYC gets lots of snow.
As someone who lives in the “24+ in” region of the NWS, but in the 12-inch region of the RGEM map, I vote for the RGEM result.
Blowing snow in Maine is truly unprecedented and obviously worse than we thought due to global warming, er climate change.
You might also want to take snapshots of the GFS & NAM forecasts at http://www.weatherstreet.com/nam-gfs-48hr-precip-forecast.htm.
NAM predicts a lot more snow inland; GFS puts the worst precipation out to sea.
Models I’ve seen show a pretty sharp snow gradient–for example, Newark airport
could well get 6” less snow than La Guardia airport, a mere 20 miles away.
I’m just outside the southern border of Boston. The flakes are small, but right now they’re blowing almost horizontally from northeast to southwest – classic nor’easter. I’ve only shoveled once this year – this will be a bitch. My baby boomer bones are too old for this.
It’s George Bush’s Fault!
SMC says:
February 8, 2013 at 11:23 am
Huh. I keep forgetting the north east corridor around New York is the center of the world.
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HA!
Here is a completely different pattern, but it might be worth considering and comparing how alarmists would present the March 1956 blizzards in New England, “worst March blizzards in a century” —
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/084/mwr-084-03-0116.pdf
Because if this were to happen now there would be those who would rush to attribute it to “climate change” and “climate weirding”…. Not too much basis for saying that about 1956….
Snow up there and tomorrow I will be attending Skywarn training for Bell county Texas. We have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night. It was 80 degrees yesterday.
Sounds like a return to the early 60s I remember in Topsfield, Mass., 22 miles north of Boston. On more than one occasion we could jump from our roof, into five to six-foot drifts. It meant a lot of shoveling to clear the drive. Not to mention the lengths of tunnels and rooms we constructed to play in, hidden beneath the pristine surface.
The Beagle that runs me and I are in Mount Pocono. Looked like it was really going to something but lost it’s mo.
Stay safe folks, haven’t had any thing like that here in NE Oregon-Yet
though it is a bit late….
Logan is going to be a mess along with Kennedy and La Guardia.
Glad I’m not flying to Boston or New York…
I’ll let you know the totals from the southern RI coast. It’s only about 3 inches at 3:30 pm EST but the worst is yet to come. So far it’s behind the blizzard of ’78.
Getting in before we lose power here – about 20 miles ENE of Boston in the 24+ zone.
The snow may get the headlines, but the predicted winds are down right worrisome. Almost 24 hours straight of greater then 20 MPH winds.
Sometimes, I feel like “ZOMG Weather” like this is an entirely isolated phenonemon that only occurs on the East Coast. Still, for those of you out on the Coast, buckle down, batten down and don’t go anywhere that you absolutely don’t have to – same advice you get everywhere else. Good luck and I hope you don’t lose your power because they’re still backlogged with Sandy power outages in some places (or so I hear).
And isn’t this a consequence of the same type of patterns that brought Sandy up the coast?
And here be Boston snow cams: http://www.boston.com/yourtown/boston/downtown/blizzard_2013_cam/
Relax everyone. Typical over-hyping of a purely natural random walk thru the weather extremes. But watch the MSM for their end-of-the-world proselytizing. After all, the warmer it gets, the more that it snows. Or sumthin’ like that.
Big snow event? Probably.
Snowmaggeden? a Snowpocalypse? Nah.