Oh that's gonna leave a mark – EU carbon trading 'worthless'

From the I’ve been telling you so for some time now department comes this headline from Bloomberg.


And it is getting desperate in the carbon market. Readers may recall last week I reported two new record lows on the EU carbon price, where Friday saw a 10% drop in a single day to add to the long slide:


I called it “end times for carbon trading“. The US CCX Carbon market collapsed two years ago, it was only a matter of time for the EU market. Today, there was a new record low according to Reuters “point carbon” where the price closed .10 lower than Friday.

EU carbon recovers from new low below 5 euros

21 Jan 2013 17:21
LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) – Europe’s carbon market fell to new record lows on Monday as European Union emissions permits dropped below 5 euros before regaining some lost ground after a successful EU auction of 3.5 million permits.


Watch the stampede to sell tomorrow.

Dr. Roger Piekle Jr. said today in a tweet that:

So with EU ETS carbon “worthless” Aussie gov’t linkage to EU ETS now looking like a cost-free bit of political genius with no policy effect

And, then there’s California, going it alone with their CARB auction, who at least had the good sense not to linkup with Australia. I really do hope somebody goes to jail over this scam.

BTW, the EU Carbon Price is now in “charcoal briquette” territory, which is what happened just before the Chicago Climate Exchange collapsed. A ton of EU carbon is worth less than the smallest bag of charcoal briquettes:



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Chris Beal @NJ_Snow_Fan

OMG it’s ENRON all over again.

cui bono

The EU Parliament is voting next month on further reducing the number of carbon credits, in a desperate attempt to nail the price to the perch.
Eventually there will only be a couple of permits left. Unfortunately by that time that’s all European industry will need, having been destroyed by high energy costs


The only scenario where anyone goes to jail requires a minor civil war first.


Oh, the stupid… it runs so deep.


There is no real commodity behind carbon trading. History will remember this folly as validation of that famous utterance, “There’s a sucker born every minute.”


THIS SCAM MUST FAIL. (sorry for shouting).


Geoff Chaucer knew all about “carbon credits” when he wrote his magnum opus eight hundred years ago. Of course, back then they were called “Papal indulgences”, and they were sold by professional Pardoners of dubious character, silver tongues, and obvious motives:
With him there rode a noble Pardoner
Of Rouncival, his friend and his compeer;
Straight from the court of Rome had journeyed he.

His knapsack lay before him in his lap,
Stuffed full with pardons brought from Rome all hot.

Well could he read a lesson or a story,
But best of all he sang an offertory;
For he knew well that when that song was sung,
Then must he preach, and all with smoothened tongue.
To gain some silver, preferably from the crowd;
Therefore he sang so merrily and so loud.

I stand up like a scholar in pulpit,
And when the uneducated people all do sit,
I preach, as you have heard me say before,
And tell a hundred false jokes, less or more.

Of avarice and of all such wickedness
Is all my preaching, thus to make them free
With offered pence, the which pence come to me.
For my intent is only pence to win,
And not at all for punishment of sin.
(Chaucer, The Canterbury Tales; General Prologue and The Pardoner’s Tale)

John M

OMG, that price…it’s…it’s…unprecedented!


The carbon market is going up in flames. Do they need a carbon permit for that?

I really do hope somebody goes to jail over this scam.

As do I but they won’t. This is all an elaborate con to facilitate a mechanism for transferring hundreds of billions of dollars of money from the people who can least afford it into the pockets of the supporters of a political agenda. It is repayment for their support in getting a certain group of politicians elected. In return, the politicians lavish them with billions. This should absolutely make the blood of any honest citizen with any sense of integrity boil. Why are these politicians and hucksters not being thrown into prison or at the very least not seeing their property obtained by these ill-gotten funds confiscated and sold off to reimburse the public purse? After the Obama administration’s so-called “stimulus” scam where over a TRILLION dollars was borrowed from future generations to line the pockets of political supporters, this is the largest con game ever played. When will the people demand that it stop?


Faster,please. As I have mentioned to many eco-cultists I know,explain to me how this can work. They sputter something about reducing evil plant food,curbing the plant food pollution,etc. I then simply ask them…..sooooooo….I release a tonne of CO2,pay you a buck for doing so,and the CO2 disappears??? The only thing disappearing is my buck,which I deserve for being such an idjit in the first place.

John S

And his inaugural speech today, President Obama chided climate deniers.
“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. (Applause.) Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms. “


Is it possible to short these shares? If so, seems like a good way to make money.

The price isn’t really a proper market price, although it has been portrayed as such. It looks like a market mechanism is used to set the price, but true markets balance supply and demand using price. In the “carbon” market, supply is decreed by governments. The “market” price tells us nothing about the value of the product, only that governments have over-supplied. If they have the willpower, they can bump the price up again simply by cutting supply.
BTW, the product isn’t carbon, it’s negative CO2 – those who wish to “sell” negative CO2 (via “carbon sinks”) in the “market” are now paid less for it.
Now I have cleared all that up, who, other than someone forced to by government decree, would now play this market.


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It never was and nether will be a true market; the product is totally ‘virtual’, not pegged to anything in reality really and is without limit. The only real price it can support is $0.
Get out and get out quick – this will implode soon with a very expensive ‘pop!’ . Good ridence.
Now if we can only export this failure to Australia – the day would be complete…


As a somewhat dissapointed Australian, please feel free to ridicule us at your convenience. Should you meet any of us travelling, please have away at chuckling at how silly we are. 9/10 times it’ll be one of our backpackers, who’s lived on a diet of ‘catastrophe’ from our wonderful socialst left teaching system.
FYI, the same Government who gave us the carbon tax, also gave us a mining tax that in 6 months has raised – Zero, nil, nada.

Gary Pearse

It’s hard to see how anything short of a civil war can correct this whole thing, C credits, policies, corrupt science that is destroying the economy. It would depress me too much if I were to accept that so many people are stupider than I thought. The Guardian chided the London Mayor for musing that global warming isn’t looking too credible to an empiricist who is seeing so much cold and snow in his city. They would perhaps be right if it wasn’t for the vast freeze in Canada and Russia and China. Remember the Japanese were bemoaning the fact a few years ago that it had become a long trip by sea to take tourists to see sea ice? Well you can walk entirely on ice from Lake Winnipeg in southern Manitoba, over the arctic ice to Hokkaido, Japan..


Gunga Din

CO2. H2O. Both are dreaded Greenhouse Gases. Carbon trading has gone bust. Are they now going to start trading water rights?

John F. Hultquist

I’ve got $6. I’ll take the briquets. With the proper set-up, one can release the carbon and char a goodly number of steaks, chicken, brats, and fresh roasting ears of corn. With a ton of carbon credits you can . . . Can you get paper copies?
Did the professional Pardoners give paper “Papal indulgences” and, if so, are there any on display?

William Astley

Further to John S’ comment:
John S says:
January 21, 2013 at 5:42 pm
And his inaugural speech today, President Obama chided climate deniers.
“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. (Applause.) Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms. “
The extreme AGW movement have convinced the thoughtless media that:
1) There is a magic green energy wand. If only the government could use the green energy wand, “green energy” will save the environment and create jobs for all. Scams of course only waste money. If “green energy” made economic and engineering sense it would be used now. Wind “farms” are a good example. The scam is ignoring the cost for battery storage, transporting the power from regions where there is sufficient wind to justify installing a wind farm, ignoring maintenance cost for the wind turbines, ignoring the energy costs to construct the wind farms, the energy transmission system, the battery storage, ignoring the need to ration power during long windless periods, and so on.
2) That spending billions upon billions on the green scams will create jobs rather than destroy jobs. Carbon trading is a good example. How many jobs does carbon trading create? What will happen if the cost of electricity and transportation fuel triples? What will happen if the US and Europe triple their cost of electricity and transportation fuel and China and India do not? Will the US and EU spend trillions of dollars to install the wind farm scam in Africa?
3) That although there will be less public money to spend due to the public money spent on subsidizing greens scams and every tax payer will have less money to spend due to a tripling of energy costs, that these extra costs will have no affect on the macro or micro economy.
4) If assumption 1 through 3 are incorrect the government can create funny money and spend their way out of the problem. If only Congress would do their job and spend more.
The above economic schemes has been tried over and over again by third world governments and by Greece. The path at the end of the scam scheme is complete economic collapse and an angry mob rioting outside the government offices.
Take a single real world example, say air travel. The extreme AGW movements carbon tax policy will double or triple the cost of air travel. (i.e. The objective of carbon tax is to return the atmosphere to 350 ppm or to hold at 400 ppm. The tax must be high enough to stop the activity.) The cost of a typically trans Atlantic flight with carbon tax set at AGW fanatic level would be $2000 to $3000 US return. Carbon dioxide emissions would be eliminate from air travel as most families will no longer be able to afford the costs.


Having the EU manipulate the market by withholding credits is “a no brainer” says Connie Hedegaard. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-looks-to-fix-problems-with-its-carbon-emissions-trading-system-a-863609.html
Given the reported heavy involvement already of the Mafia and other criminal groups, perhaps they should be tasked with “fixing” the problem??

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia

As Brendan suggests (January 21, 2013 at 6:31 pm) we have less than intelligent leaders (PM, Gillard & Treasurer, Swan) down-under. Hopefully the majority of Australian voters are smart enough to vote them out this year.

Schadenfreude is so comforting. With the Australian Tax and eventually Trading Scheme linked to the EU one, we can only hope that this failure comes to Australia very soon now.

Jimmy Haigh

So they are quite happy to raise taxes and waste our money on the scam but none of them are putting their own money in. That says all that needs to be said.

William Astley

If only Congress would get moving and follow the EU off of the green energy scam cliff and introduce cap and trade. The EU Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a very good example of what to expect from cap and trade. (i.e. No significant improvement to the environment, billions of dollars sent to over sea scams, and the average home owner paying higher prices for power to pay for the scam.)
The Clean Development Mechanism delivers the greatest green scam of all
…The CDM system itself, however, will still be in place, and we will all contribute through its chief source of revenue, the EU’s $100-billion-a-year Emissions Trade Scheme (which we pay for in various ways, not least through our electricity bills). We here in Britain also have the special privilege of knowing, as I reported in February, that we are now chipping in £60 million to buy additional CDM credits through our taxes – so that the politicians and civil servants in government offices can keep warm by continuing to pump out emissions much as before. …
…The essence of the scam is that a handful of Chinese and Indian firms are deliberately producing large quantities of an incredibly powerful “greenhouse gas” which we in the West – including UK taxpayers – then pay them billions of dollars to destroy…
…The key to this scam, designed to curb global warming, is a scheme known as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), set up under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and administered by the UN. It enables firms and governments in the developed world to buy “credits” which allow them to continue emitting greenhouse gases. These are sold to them, through well-rewarded brokers, from firms in developing countries that can show they have nominally reduced their emissions.
Last year, destruction of CFCs accounted for more than half the CDM credits issued, in a market that will eventually, it is estimated, be worth $17 billion. Of the 1,390 CDM projects so far approved, less than 1 per cent accounts for 36 per cent of the total value.
Even greenies have become so outraged by this ridiculous racket that the Environmental Investigation Agency has described it as the “biggest environment scandal in history”. Two weeks ago the UN announced that it is suspending payments to five Chinese firms pending an investigation, with a view to a major reform of the system. Last week the EU’c climate change supremo, Connie Hedegaard, said she would be asking her officials to prepare a proposal whereby these particular CFC payments
The following are some of the drivers for the green scams.
Timothy Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Global Issues, seconded Strong’s statement: “We have got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony … climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.” – Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment
“The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful.”Dr David Frame, Climate modeler, Oxford University
“It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” – Paul Watson, Co-founder of Greenpeace”
“Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” – Sir John Houghton, First chairman of the IPCC
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.” Prof. Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Maurice Strong, senior advisor to Kofi Annan, U.N. Secretary-General who chaired the gigantic (40,000 participants) “U.N. Conference on Environment and Development” in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 , who was responsible for putting together the Kyoto Protocol with thousands of bureaucrats, diplomats, and politicians, stated: “We may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse…isn’t it our job to bring that about”


“ntesdorf says:
January 21, 2013 at 7:28 pm”
Before any linking to other systems, the Australian “carbon price” (@ AU$23/tonne CO2 to rise to AU$25.15 this year. 10% of the revenue raise already goes to the UN) was to first morph in to an ETS in 2015 and then link to the New Zealand ETS. Given the fact NZ has wound back it’s implementaion of an ETS and has given the finger to Kyoto 2, I don’t see the AU carbon price to survive the end of 2013/2014. Well, here’s hoping!

Get ’em while they’re hot!

S. Meyer

A friend in Germany just rubbed my nose in this (luckily I was able to find an English version for this blog):
It seems that Germany is planning to switch completely to renewable energy by 2050. In typical German fashion, they have it all planned out and very carefully calculated. This includes the need to store energy because of the wide fluctuations of solar and wind energy, gradual aging of current power plants, and, and, and. They think this is not only doable  but will actually save them money in the long run. 
And, by the way, I just read that pollution cap and trade was originally an American idea, and worked very well for control of sulfur emissions. Imitation being the highest form of flattery….


Its actually worse than the Europeans admit:
The NZ carbon price has dropped from NZ$18-24 per tonne to $2.50.
In part thats because we are buying up European credits for $0.40 per tonne!


it is not unprecedented. When Russia was wavering on ratifying the Kyoto Protocol ( they had lost interest because the EU was not interested on buying the hot air credits from Russia but EU was playing hard on Russian entry into WTO) a ton of carbon credits went down a low of $3 per ton. The Kyoto Protocol would not have come into force if Russia did not ratify it after the US will not ratify it. Anyway with Obama on his second and final term, the US may just jump into the extended Kyoto Protocol especially with Al Gore’s lingering influence in the party. Too early to print the obituary of the ETS


Gunga Din says:
January 21, 2013 at 6:35 pm

CO2. H2O. Both are dreaded Greenhouse Gases. Carbon trading has gone bust. Are they now going to start trading water rights?

I predict California will someday outlaw lawn sprinkling and swimming pools because of that nasty GHG H2O–and this in full view of the Pacific.
Upwind, no less.


Love the Briquets.

Praise be to the Russian hackers in Siberia for blowing the whistle with the Climategate Emails. I worked 18 months on defeating Cap and Trade legislation and I couldn’t have done it without the Russian hackers, the Sun going into a sleepy phase solar minimum, and the indispensable help of WUWT.

michael hart

The Australians really seem to be getting salt rubbed into this particular wound.
Hectored and lectured at home by carbon-taxes (as well as the-website-that-cannot-be-named), a report by the World Resources Institute states:

“Motivated by the growing Pacific market, Australia is proposing to increase new mine and new port capacity up to 900 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) — three times its current coal export capacity.”

So coal is good enough for the Pacific-market, but not Australians?
A government that can square that circle is, IMO, morally and ethically bankrupt.


As soon as Obama mentioned climate change, the Thomson Reuters controlled Globe & Mail hit its “exultate jubilate” moment:
– Obama’s vow on climate change signals bumpy road for Keystone
– Dramatic temperature increases could threaten Canadian health, infrastructure: Canadian infrastructure was not built for extreme cold and extreme heat… LOL Only zealots ignorant of Canadian climate over the life of Canada could come up with such bull.
Globemedia has been teaming up with Tides sponsored off springs and will take Obama’s message to heart, even if it means wishing bad economic news to their own country.


Well we all know how Obama and The Fools will take this.
Make more rules! (And cut the leeches that support them in on the ground floor)

When I think of “carbon trading” I am reminded of the “South Sea Bubble” and the “Darian Adventure” which bankrupted Scotland (they’d gambled the entire Treasury), the more recent “Junk Bonds” trading in the 1980s … the list of economic and fiscal follies is endless. The guilty will not be penalised, they will steal whatever remains of the “Treasury” and run, leaving those who have been robbed, broke and unable to pursue them.
History provides any number of examples for those who study it.


murdoch’s Sky News Australia never misses a chance to push the CAGW line, no matter how simplistic or ridiculous the claims being made. after all, Aussies are presently stuck with the most expensive carbon trading price in the world:
22 Jan: Sky News: People should accept climate science: PM
The prime minister has travelled around the country during the extreme weather and bushfires over the past couple of weeks but says one weather event alone can’t be put down to climate change.
‘But you can accept the science that the scientists are telling us … very clearly that climate change means more extreme weather events,’ she told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.
‘I’m not a scientist but from a lay person’s point of view, it’s a pretty startling day when the weather bureau says it has had to pick a new colour for their maps because they don’t have a colour that tells us about a land temperature of 50 and above.’
She said scientists don’t just look at one weather event but a broad sweep, and just like people accept the science that says smoking and lung cancer are related, they should accept carbon pollution is making a difference to the climate.


australia’s opposition is as ridiculous as the present govt even when criticising CO2 pricing and trading:
22 Jan: Australian: AAP: Abbott points to US inaction on climate
FEDERAL Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has pointed to the Obama administration’s inaction on carbon pricing after the US president said more must be done to address climate change…
“The interesting thing is that President Obama’s administration has three times, in the last few months, explicitly ruled out a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme,” he said.
“Now, all of us are concerned about climate change. All of us want to do the right thing by our planet. We all want to give the planet the benefit of the doubt.
“But we’ve got to have smart policies, not dumb policies, to do that.”…
“I certainly accept that climate change is real, that mankind is making a contribution,” he said.
But he echoed recent comments by Queensland Premier Campbell Newman that severe weather events have been happening for a long period.
“Campbell’s absolutely right – we’ve had floods before, we’ve had droughts before, we’ve had cyclones before, we’ve had fires before, we’ve had very hot days before, very cold days before,” he said.
“… almost from the beginning of records being kept in this country, we’ve had very severe heat waves, and from very early on in the time of European settlement we’ve had devastating bushfires.”
this from a man known worldwide as a CAGW sceptic who once said CAGW was “crap”! you would never know the CAGW scam is unravelling at a fast pace.

Latimer Alder

John S quotes Pres. Obama as

Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms

. “
Seems a good time to remind ourselves of Feynman’s wise words

When someone says, ‘Science teaches such and such,’ he is using the word incorrectly.
Science doesn’t teach anything; experience teaches it. If they say to you, ‘Science has shown such and such,’ you should ask, ‘How does science show it? How did the scientists find out? How? What? Where?’ It should not be ‘science has shown.

and even less that there exists a ‘judgement of science’.
‘Judging’ is a human characteristic, not a scientific one.


John S says:
January 21, 2013 at 5:42 pm
And his inaugural speech today, President Obama chided climate deniers.

We must condemn the naysayers who said that stomach ulcers are caused mainly by the bacterium helicobacter pylori, we must condemn believers in impossible quasicrystals, we must isolate those who say c02 is a bit player in global warming.
Just give it time.

Chuck Nolan

John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia says:
January 21, 2013 at 7:16 pm
As Brendan suggests (January 21, 2013 at 6:31 pm) we have less than intelligent leaders (PM, Gillard & Treasurer, Swan) down-under. Hopefully the majority of Australian voters are smart enough to vote them out this year.
This will be a test above all else of your people’s smarts.
We in the US failed our test in November 2012.

Geoff Sherrington

From USA President ““We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. (Applause.) Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms. “
Recalls a sketch from the Two Ronnies on UK TV years ago.
“My company can sell you fire insurance”
“We can sell you theft insurance”
We can sell you flood insurance”
‘”Errr How do you start a flood?”
Nature knows Man is puny, even a President. So do comedians.

Peter Miller

Traded at a new low of 4.88 Euros this morning (Jan 22).


S. Meyer says:
January 21, 2013 at 8:53 pm
“It seems that Germany is planning to switch completely to renewable energy by 2050. In typical German fashion, they have it all planned out and very carefully calculated. ”
We also had WWII carefully planned out.

The basic problem with CO2 Indulgences is that anyone can simply stop. Where is the “worth” in them? It is entirely a “cost” item to the company that must buy them. So it has a choice. Pay that tax (as that is functionally what it is) here as part of ‘doing business’, or stop. Do business somewhere else, or simply do not do business.
As any added costs reduce some marginal business from profit to loss, by design the demand must decrease. The higher the price, the lower the sales.
What we are learning is the equilibrium price at which it is not ‘worth it’ to stay home and drink beer. For most folks, it doesn’t take much to convince them to stay home…
So, one small example, I now bake my own bread. Didn’t particularly set out to do it, but one day got pissed at $4 a loaf. I now make it at home for somewhere between 25 cents and $0.5 a loaf.
No “carbon credits” needed. (No labor dues either. Hostess just went bankrupt, btw, partly due to costs from labor unions)..
Now, in California ( I really wish I could ‘gloat’ over the EU et. al. demise, but it is hard to do when my State is rushing headlong into the same meat grinder… but at least it is leading with its least sensitive part… and least used…) as electricity goes ballistic, I’ve already figured out it’s cheaper to use gasoline or propane. On my shopping list is a “camping oven” to use instead of my All Electric Kitchen oven…
Sometime this summer, I’m planning to make a “beehive oven” in the backyard like used on the local Spanish Missions in centuries past. I have bamboo growing in my yard faster than I can compost it. While local laws forbid ‘yard burning’, it’s fine to cook on a BBQ… So “win win” – I’ll feed the Bamboo to the oven…
At that point, my cost of bread drops about 10 cents more per loaf. No energy bill.
Hey, I’ll even be “carbon neutral” (even if spitting out smoke and experiencing that 1780’s era level of technology…) OTOH, I’m starting to ferment beer and wine too. Same as they did.
So what happens to “carbon quatloos” when I’m sitting in my yard with beer and bread and no need of such? Oh, and no tax either…
The basic problem forces things this way. Maybe that is the goal of the Greens (everyone back to cave man tech) but I think the government money launderers and business manipulators expected a cut…
Oh, and not driving to the store to buy bread and beer cuts down on gas taxes and sales taxes too…
Even cheaper to heat the home with camping lantern. Get free light too… (as heat caries the cost) Not sure it is what “they” wanted, but “reality just is. -E.M.Smith” )
So folks, singly, collectively, or by ‘substitution’ (of cheaper product or foreign made) can just stop playing the carbon quatloo game and the price collapses, as there is no reality in them and nobody must play.


Hmm. Think the headline from UBS reads better without the qualifier: try just “EU Carbon Permits ‘worthless’ UBS says”.
There, that’s better.