Readers may recall the story Global Warming?……. It was warmer in Sydney in 1790 by Craig Kelly, MP in NSW Australia in response to some of the recent alarmist caterwauling in the press about the hot summer in Australia being a sign of ‘global warming’. He writes in with an update regarding criticisms by Steven Mosher regarding instrument calibration.
Kelly writes:
=============================================================
Hi Anthony,
I’ve done a bit more research on the temperature measurements recorded by Tench in 1790 that I thought you might be interested in.
Firstly, it appears the measurements were taken in a purpose built observatory which stood at location of the current pylons of the Sydney Harbor Bridge. The Observatory was built and run by William Dawes.
There is a detail description of the Observatory in letter sent back to England. The Observatory had two thermometers not one. These were loaned to the First Fleet by the Board of Longitude.
One was made by Nairne & Blunt and the other one by Ramsden.
When the First Fleet stopped at Cape Town on the way to Sydney, Dawes refers to calibrating the instruments. William Dawes’ journal actually mentions making a comparison between the two thermometers, noting;
‘‘I observe when the thermometers have been long at nearly the same height that they agree.’’
When both Dawes and Tench returned to England at the end of 1791 (after having their requests to stay denied) they took the thermometers with them and returned them to the Board of Longitude.
Both Tench and Dawes were remarkable men, they would have done everything in their power to ensure the measurements were as accurate a possible. Gergis et al. (2009) has stated that William Dawes’ data is commensurate with present-day meteorological measurements.
Add this to the numerous ancedotes of bird and bat deaths, and I think even the most skeptical would have to agree that records are quite accurate.
Regards,
Craig Kelly
Federal Member for Hughes
==============================================================
Some additions by Anthony:
The abstract of Gergis et al 2009:
This study presents the first analysis of the weather conditions experienced at
Sydney Cove, New South Wales, during the earliest period of the European settlement
of Australia. A climate analysis is presented for January 1788 to December
1791 using daily temperature and barometric pressure observations recorded by
William Dawes in Sydney Cove and a temperature record kept by William Bradley
on board the HMS Sirius anchored in Port Jackson (Sydney Harbour) in the early
months of the First Fleet’s arrival in Australia. Remarkably, the records appear
comparable with modern day measurements taken from Sydney Observatory
Hill, displaying similar daily variability, a distinct seasonal cycle and considerable
inter-annual variability. To assess the reliability of these early weather data, they were cross-verified with other data sources, including anecdotal observations recorded in First Fleet documentary records and independent palaeoclimate reconstructions. Some biases in the temperature record, likely associated with the location of the thermometer, have been identified. Although the 1788–1791 period experienced a marked La Niña to El Niño fluctuation according to palaeoclimatic data, the cool and warm intervals in Sydney over this period cannot be conclusively linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. This study demonstrates that there are excellent opportunities to expand our description of pre-20th century climate variability in Australia while contributing culturally significant material to the emerging field of Australian environmental history.
An account from Dawes journal extracted from Gergis et al 2009:
By September 1790, the settlers were fast realising just
how unpredictable Australia’s weather could be. Watkin
Tench remarks ‘it is changeable beyond any other I ever
heard of… clouds, storms and sunshine pass in rapid succession’.
But by the middle of 1790, Tench (1793) describes
the impact of dry conditions on the colony’s food supplies:
‘vegetables are scarce…owing to want of rain. I do not think
that all the showers of the last four months put together,
would make twenty-four hours rain. Our farms, what with
this and a poor soil, are in wretched condition. My winter
crop of potatoes, which I planted in days of despair (March
and April last), turned out very badly when I dug them about
two months back. Wheat returned so poorly last harvest’
(Tench 1793).
It appears that the summer of 1790–91 was a hot and dry
summer. Tench comments that, at times, it ‘felt like the blast
of a heated oven’. He goes on to describe the heat endured
during summer: ‘even [the] heat [of December 1790] was
judged to be far exceeded in the latter end of the following
February [1791], when the north-west wind again set in, and
blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, it fell
short by one degree of [December 1790] but at Rose Hill [Parramatta],
it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all that
they had before felt, either there or in any other part of the
world…it must, however, have been intense, from the effects
it produced. An immense flight of bats driven before the
wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence
they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable
longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor
did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better.
The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as
the bats’ (Tench 1793).
Gosh, “climate disruption” in 1790? It’s worse than we thought!
List of Instruments proper for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay
Other related items include two lists that detail the instruments Dawes needed for his colonial observatory. ‘List of Instruments proper for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay’ contains a great many items, but as the Board of Longitude — of which Banks was an ex-officio member by virtue of his position as President of the Royal Society — did not have sufficient instruments on hand, most of these were eventually crossed out.
Note the “two thermometers” in the list above.
List of instruments to be lent by the Board of Longitude for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay
The ‘List of instruments to be lent by the Board of Longitude for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay’ is a much shorter list; it served as a clean copy of what was actually available from the Board of Longitude.
Here is a photo from the Powerhouse Museum in Sydney.
Thermometer with case, glass / mercury / metal / wood / shagreen, Nairne and Blunt, England, 1770-1800
Read more: http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/collection/database/?irn=68006#ixzz2IKiUeerQ
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution Non-Commercial
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For the New Man at Year Zero, there is no Past, no History. Our Green Betters may admit some to the sanctuary where a Book of Spin will let them see a few glimpses of the Pre-Present. But only if they’re good!
mosomoso
What are these ‘Green Betters’ that you go on about all the time?
Sounds like a good name for a tasty cockatail.
Hey Ace, I’m presently studying the effects of GW on this bird called a snipe. Their bills appear to me to be growing longer because their food source (worms) have gone deeper on average. Need some help catching the little buggers along the banks, bogs and islands of the Arkansas River.
You are so knowledgeable on birds, the pay is good.
Ed Mertin
johanna says:
January 18, 2013 at 6:54 pm
The Sydney Observatory records were ‘revised’ in 1996 as part of a PhD thesis funded by the National Greenhouse Advisory Committee.
—————————————————————————————–
This is so important. How are we to know that the criterion used to revise the historical temperature readings in 1996 do not themselves need to be “revised” 17 years later?
We are told that climatology is in its infancy. Have their been no improvements in methodology that might call those 1996 revisions into question? Has anyone even reviewed the revisions since?
“On very, very cold desert nights some species of birds go into a sort of torpor – a temporary state of hibernation.”
Well, I’ll bet none of us saw that coming. Aced ’em, Ace!
Goode ’nuff
Are they rhynchokinetic? Some Gallinago spp are, to a quite marked extent. If so, you may need to control for variations in rhynchokinesis, depending on your thesis.
BTW, make sure your worms do not read WUWT or it might wreck your data.
The record heatwave in Sydney was mostly caused by a very unusual late monsoon at the top end. Usually the monsoon starts in December, but this year it has only just started now and this allowed the (cloud and rain free) red centre to heat up to near record highs. This combined with colder than normal water in the coral sea caused the high pressure system in the Tasman Sea to ridge north and combined with a very active cold front to the south, the super heated air from the desert regions was dragged across Sydney at the very height of mid summer.
For those that think this is global warming at work then please observe the current state of the global temperature which is statistically unchanged over 16 years and showing no signs of rising, meaning this is a rare local event only.
Nothing to see here other than weather and more mind numbing activism !
“BruceC says:
January 18, 2013 at 1:38 pm”
I believe the airport is used in temperature recording now since Observatory Hill is excluded by the BOM.
Lewis P Buckingham says:
January 18, 2013 at 10:08 pm
Climate Ace Jan 18 2013 8:54pm
‘Single data point cherry picked by an aussie polly’
I am glad you picked up the polly/parrot pun. The single data point cherry pick by Kelly, though, is no laughing matter. The fact that he does not know better is a bit of a wory. We need intelligent people in parliament, not cherrypickers.
The eastern Rosella not sic ‘roshiller’ I was having a bit of a jape. One theory for the origin of the term ‘rosella’ is ‘Rose Hiller’ which may well have have been the common name used in Tench’s time.
‘travels high and level over long distances’ and is common in the Sydney basin.Come to Sydney, they are everywhere. Many of them are fed by residents in high rise in the city and are part of our colour.It is a great pity that we Aussies are by our blogs not pointing to the true beauty of our country and city, for the six thousand or so scientific readers of this site.
Ah, yes, Australia is certainly the land of parrots and I join in welcoming our US friends to the land of Oz. We need all the tourist dollars we can get hold of.
Just as background,and I assume by your writing you are a journalist and political adviser, you may want to skip the next bit. FAIL. FAIL. Still, your views may be construed as an improvement on some WUWT poster suggestions that my occupation is ‘Marxist’ and ‘Nazi’.
The Sydney Observatory is a great place to visit when there is no cloud cover.If there is you will be shown the Planetarium and the old clock.Because of heavy light pollution it is not much more than a tourist destination, and of course the temperature instrument record is no longer reliable.
But that means its a very interesting place to visit.
OK.
Now coming to the science bit.
The reason that this unfortunate rosella is of interest is that by its distribution as a species it may be used as a temperature proxy over time.
A cursory examination of the biogeography of the Platycercidae complex of species and subspecies indicates that they have almost certainly been significantly affected by climate change over time. Genetric drift between some of the subspecies indicates that this is ongoing. A single dying bird falling from a maximum heat record in Sydney is highly unlikely to affect the bigger picture. OTOH, AGW, with its systemic pressures, will almost certainly affect the distribution of the Platycercidae and may well be doing so already.
Last time I checked, and when in conversation with pollys I have come to know and love, few if any read this site as they seem to lack an inquiring mind.
They may actually have something better to do with their time.
But I digress.
Your point is that Australia has had a record heatwave.
I don’t yet know if you are right.As a political adviser you would appreciate that even budget figures are subject to revision.
I leave stats to those who actually know what they are talking about. In the case of climate stats in Australia that would be BOM and CSIRO. If they say we have had a record heat wave, that will do me. The idea that people driving around in their cars looking at their temperature gauges actually know better is ignorant arrogance of the worst sort.
This revision needs to be done on the Australian temperature record, just as it has been on the US temperature record.
What revision?
If you are in a real position of influence,you may be in a political position to confirm to an increasingly skeptical public that such meta information is available and may be re looked at by a wide scientific community. I have zilch influence on anyone. I appreciate your concern about metadata and share it to some extent.
But in the meanwhile, the subject here is not that but ‘Was it warmer in 1790?’
So I added my little bit. One dead parrot doth not AGW make.
A tiny bit of information,another line of inquiry, that supports the hypothesis that it was hotter in Port Jackson way back then in 1790, when the headlands were clothed in vegetation and the Parramatta river was pollution free and the pollys fell from the sky in large numbers according to eyewitness reports.
About the only thing we can say about Sydney’s 18th century avifauna is that it was very different to today’s avifauna. Proper scientific comparisons of what fell out of the sky then and now are, at the very least, problematic.
As for Tench’s dead bats, the bases for comparison are so tenuous as to render ridiculous the notion that bats died then and not now, so it was hotter then. Not that that stops non-scientific people from having a go at it.
Thanks HB and Johanna,
It is interesting to note that with an Easterly blowing at Observatory hill, about 5 Km almost due East, away at “Sydney Harbour” Lat -33.87 Lon 151.26 temps were MUCH lower:
18/03:30pm 28.8 – – – – NNE 15 20 8 11 – – –
18/03:00pm 29.7 – – – – ENE 13 20 7 11 – – –
18/02:30pm 30.5 – – – – ENE 17 24 9 13 – – –
18/02:00pm 29.9 – – – – NE 13 17 7 9 – – –
Unfortunately Fort Denison wasn’t recording.
Patrick,
What is the source for your comment ?
“I believe the airport is used in temperature recording now since Observatory Hill is excluded by the BOM.”
read the Gergis paper
It states that the bats and parrots were dying out at rose hill (parramatta) two months later in Feb, not Dec at sydney cove??
Patrick,
I assume you’re referring to this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/07/02/sydneys-weather-station-150-meters-makes-all-the-difference/
“Observatory Hill is excluded from climate studies.” CRN4/5 errors >2 deg
He wrote it, I believe it:
“An immense flight of bats driven before the
wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence
they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable
longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor
did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better.
The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as
the bats’ (Tench 1793).”
I first read this many years back, when I was perusing the early journals. There was no reason to disbelieve then, no reason now. What’s changed?
No need to answer that.
“Climate Ace says:
January 18, 2013 at 11:55 pm
I leave stats to those who actually know what they are talking about. In the case of climate stats in Australia that would be BOM and CSIRO. If they say we have had a record heat wave, that will do me.”
To me, reading your posts, and talking about “those that know what they are talking about”, if you lived in 1935 you would have held the same view and allowed the introduction of cane toads, because what the then CSRO and a Brisbane sugar company told you was OK, do I understand you right?
“Dr Burns says:
January 19, 2013 at 2:17 am”
Up thread there is reference to OH being excluded by the BOM. Along with the almost daily announcements in newscasts refering to “temperature at the airport”. It’s the same in Bankstown, anther airport!
Friends:
I strongly commend that readers save time by not bothering to read posts from Climate Ace.
He./she/it is snowing several WUWT threads with posts, but – to date – none of his/her/its posts contains anything worth the bother of reading; nothing, zilch, nada.
So, I commend that when the first reader who sees yet another post from Climate Ace, then that reader posts, “Climate Ace, re your posts at ***. Noted”. After that, everybody continues with discussion of the thread’s subject. This would be polite by not ignoring the troll, but it would save everybody from wasting time on the troll’s thread deflections.
Climate Ace, re your post at January 18, 2013 at 11:55 pm. Noted.
Richard
“Climate Ace says:
January 18, 2013 at 11:55 pm”
Further, do you take every word from, say, your GP as gospel, is that a correct view of you I can assume? Well, so did I, once. But then, just out of curiosity as a result of a statement someone made to me, someone who has known me for a long time, I decided to research data on drugs for blood pressure I was taking and found my GP, through no fault of thier own (I assume), did not inform me of. I found that, and this was an official Australian Govn’t product datasheet for the product in question, that I was actually suffering ALL the common side effects and some of the less common effects too. I do understad ALL drugs have side effects, but I found an alternative that does not have any side effects ANYTHING like I was exposed to. Believe everything you are told by “experts”?
Crickey
Chief Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery — who edited and introduced a reissue of Tench’s writings (1788) — told Crikey the report did not cite Sydney’s temperature at all.
“The record heat was recorded elsewhere. The national average temperature was also record breaking,” Flannery said. “Sadly the planet continues to warm. Myself and all the climate scientists I know wish it were otherwise
yep checked it out Tim has done that,
@ur momisugly Climate Ace
Have any of these heatwaves been beaten since the start of [cough] AGW, ACC, Climate Disruption, Human Induced Rapid Global Overheating (HIRGO) or whatever the hell it’s called this week?
During a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the Western Australian town of Marble Bar set a world record for the most consecutive days above 100 °F (38 °C) [Note: Aust ‘summer season’ is Dec-Feb]
The longest continuous U.S. string of 100 °F (38 °C) or higher temperatures was reached for 101 days in Yuma, Arizona during 1937.
CLIMATE OF NEW SOUTH WALES:
H.C. RUSSELL, B.A., F.R.A.S., F.M.S., &c.,
GOVERNMENT ASTRONOMER VOU NEW SOUTH WALES.
SYDNEY : CHARLES POTTER, ACTING GOVERNMENT PRINTER.
1877.
Within the Colony of New South Wales may be found all climates, from
the cold of Kiandra, where the thermometer sometimes falls eight degrees
below zero, and frost and snow hold everything, in wintry bonds for
months at a stretch, and where upwards of 8 feet of snow sometimes falls
in a single month, to the more tlum tropical heat and extreme dryness of
our inland plains, where frost is never seen, and the thermometer in summer
often for days together reads from 100° to 116°, and sometimes in hot winds
reaches 130 , and where the average annual rainfall is only 12 to 13 incbes,
and sometimes nil for a whole year.
http://archive.org/details/climatenewsouth00russgoog
>>Patrick says:
>>January 19, 2013 at 2:46 am
>>Up thread there is reference to OH being excluded by the BOM.
Sorry Patrick. I still can’t find anything about the airport replacing OH, except OH being excluded from climate studies, if that’s what you mean.
Sydney airport:
18/03:30pm 44.3 40.9 9.0 12 20.9 NW
18/03:00pm 44.9 41.6 9.7 12 21.2 W
18/02:30pm 45.5 40.3 8.8 11 21.8 NW
18/02:18pm 44.7 39.0 9.9 13 20.9 NW
18/02:00pm 45.5 41.5 9.1 11 21.7 WNW
18/01:30pm 44.5 40.7 11.0 14 20.4 W
18/01:00pm 43.5 38.7 11.6 15 19.5 WNW
Sydney Harbour (station 5 Km E of OH)
18/03:30pm 28.8 – – – – NNE
18/03:00pm 29.7 – – – – ENE
18/02:30pm 30.5 – – – – ENE
18/02:00pm 29.9 – – – – NE
18/01:30pm 29.8 – – – – NE
Olymic Park (station 12 Km W of OH)
18/03:30pm 44.2 42.3 11.7 15 20.0 W
18/03:00pm 43.1 41.7 14.5 19 18.2 NW
18/02:30pm 44.5 43.2 14.8 18 19.0 NW
18/02:00pm 44.0 41.2 12.6 16 19.5 WNW
18/01:30pm 44.7 43.4 15.8 19 18.7 WNW
(1st col date ; 2nd col temp)
Record high temperatures in Australia are invariably during El Niño years. The period around 1790 was characterised by two particularly severe El Niños. This year’s record temperatures are during a neutral phase. This is the worrying aspect of the current heat spell.
Hi Climate Ace Jan 18,2013 at 10:08 pm
Thanks for your conversational reply.
As I write I am listening to ‘my’ flock of Eastern Rosellas as they squabble and argue feeding on my lemon scented gums. They woke me up this morning ,a great way to rise.
I am sorry you have been called the names of some of the more significant mass murderers of the twentieth century.I do not in the slightest think that way of you and on this site hope that moderators will put in the word SNIP, and we all get on with our lives.
As for my FAIL, remember that my terms are purely descriptive, as a good scientist should,and observational.I have no idea what your day job is,unless you happen to say.
You are a journalist because you are a writer,and a political adviser because you keep on making political comments such as “we need intelligent people in parliament’.
But this debate is not about intelligence, but about observation and facts.So it is important to look at as many facts as possible, not the preferred ones that fit the theory or hypothesis.
One of the most noticeable things about the Platycercus eximius is its enormous range.
On of the first things I noticed about parrots when exploring the Lane Cove River as a child, later as a Jackaroo at Hillston, on those desertified grasslands and in central Australia is their ability to find cool places when they are hot.
When treating them, especially eximius, we return these little birds to their flock, the same applies.
This is unsurprising.
They have core genetics for survival deep in their physiology that leads them to cool water and shade.They survived the dinosaurs.
No doubt these birds survived the medieval warming and the little ice age, so sure they have a propensity to adapt well.But what about the other part of adaptation, the environment.
As far as we know the area that these parrots flew into was a forest with permanent water that still flows from the rocks at Milson’s Point and cool gullies. Behind it sat the enormous Macquarie Marshes, nowadays called wetlands,where Centennial Park and Redfern now stand.
Nowhere to be seen was a modern city.
Now this discussion is not actually about the past theory of AGW, but asks the question
Was the extreme temperature then,three years after the colony was founded, any different to that of todays extremes?
Those birds had the benefit of millions of years of evolutionary adaption, flew into an area where shelter was available, and still died.Those present said it was from the heat.
Perhaps they were right.
.
Simon:
Your entire post at January 19, 2013 at 12:33 pm says
Australian heat waves are “invariably during El Niño years”?
Really? You know that? How?
“This year’s record temperatures are during a neutral phase.”
Oh! So they are NOT “invariably during El Niño years” then?
The worrying thing seems to be the dichotomy between your assertions.
Richard