Alex DeMarban
Alaska is going rogue on climate change.
Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation’s icebox is getting even icier.
That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.
Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that’s so 20th Century.
In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
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But now comes cooling. Researchers blame the Decadal Oscillation, an ocean phenomenon that brought chillier surface water temperatures toward Alaska. Some contend the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is harming the state’s king salmon runs, too.
Full story here
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Bob Tisdale and I have been working on a special report on this since last week, and I expect to publish it this week. – Anthony
At just under 40°N and 6600ft it’s -13°F this morning in western Colorado, or -25°C. In the last week or two when we heard of -50°C in Siberia, and -17°C in Moscow (50°N) we had -17°F or -27°C. We’re not as cold as Siberia yet, but we’re working on it.
Steve Keohane says:
January 3, 2013 at 5:35 am
Steve, we were at -15 F this morning where I live in western New Hampshire. The record low for this date is -16 F. Many places in Vermont were -20 F and below. I’m quite sure many low temperature records in our area were tied or broken.
The map for lows this am from NOAA shows below freezing in all lower 48 states except Florida. Brr. They had to reserve hot red for 60-70s °F. Snow was expected in Southwest Texas and Northern Mexico.
As I have posted before, this Ice Ages look increasingly like polar events. What I mean, is that the climatic warming and cooling is centered on the polar latitudes and not in the tropics.
I have sat and watched the jetstreams for 25 years, and what we often term as warming and cooling is determined by the lattitudes of the jetstreams (but of course the jetstreams are being influenced by something else – something like the PDO). Thus yes, the northern lattitudes are indeed the canaries of climate.
I’m not surprised at a change in salmon returns in Alaska. Some years ago research in OR showed a strong correlation between salmon returns and the PDO. Returns tended to flip between OR+WA and AK, with BC in between. Returns in BC especially xvaried by type of salmon (e.g. chinook, spring, sockeye).
In AK they are fond of distinguishing between rivers, “King” are chinook from the King river at the continental end of the Aleutian island chain. Seattle goes agog over salmon from the Copper River which is in the Wrangell Mountains adjacent to YT (its ocean delta is near Prince William Sound), which are sockeye.
A big hearing by the Canadian government did not achieve more than illuminate several possibilities that are not well recognized. One is small sharks north of Vancouver Island. Contrary to eco-activist claims, fish farms are not to blame (the “Cohen Commission” recommended continuing a moratorium in one area, not extending it to all fish farm).
There is research correlating north coast salmon returns to water temperatures inland (of course prevailing winds blow evaporated water over land to the east).
The fish of course aren’t listening to the pontificators and activists – a couple of years ago the sockeye return to the large Fraser River system was the best in several decades. (That’s a very big river system, akin to the Columbis
Do keep in mind when reading the Alaska Dispatch newspaper articles that the success rate of fish eggs at producing adult salmon is inherently very low at the best of times.
@Silver Ralph:
Yes, the Ice Age Glacials are more about distribution than overall global cold. At the Gulf Stream sinks further south, the heat doesn’t melt the arctic ice cap, the G.S. also slows and the warm water backs up near Florida. Florida gets added rains (as in summer) from the added warmth (that whole thunderstorm thermostat of Willis picking up the heat flow slack) and even the “Desert Southwest” of the USA gets more rains. So an Ice Age Glacial isn’t all bad. Florida gets about twice as wide, too, as the ice builds up ‘up north’.
So all you folks in the Frozen North can move south and it will be fine. Oh, takes 100,000 years for the ice to build up, so you have plenty of time. ( It can get cold fast, but the mass transport to make the ice sheet is slow….) Details:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/12/15/d-o-ride-my-see-saw-mr-bond/
including citations of papers. Oh, and I suspect that the present shift to cold in Alaska is part of the “bi-polar see saw”, likely driven by lunar tidal cycles. We’ve shifted to a cooling cycle on that and it causes more mixing of surface waters that leads to cold.
Bottom third or so of this on:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/lunar-cycles-more-than-one/
My impression of the question of why fish populations fluctuate/shift is the same as I’ve concluded about climate research – no one really knows.
And as with climate the ocean is heavily involved. In theory rivers can be monitored, but it is hard to monitor the ocean. As the “Looking for Clues” article says: “..in the ocean where everything happens beneath the water and the list of predators is exhaustive.” A fish-eating-fish world it seems.
People are studying the fish subject. A monitoring network of accoustic sensors is being built – it tracked fish from a tributary of the Columbia all the way to the end of the network at that time – the north end of Vancouver Island.
The correlation with the PDO that I mentioned is described in the “Looking for Clues” article, with a reference. I am pleased the research has been publicized by a newspaper.
BTW, apparently “King” salmon frequent more than the King river, but of course “King” is an artificial distinction. Location and identification of various strains may be complicated by Alaska’s extensive use of hatchery fish – do they only use the same river or do they mix? And more than one sub-species may naturally use the same river – it is known that some salmon will return up a different river if water conditions are not good in the one they were born in. Apparently adaptability and perseverance vary with the type of salmon, some will wait for several weeks, others will give give up earlier and stay in the ocean (hopefully to try again next year – salmon do not always return after the same number of years).
Silver Ralph says: January 3, 2013 at 7:52 am
As I have posted before, this Ice Ages look increasingly like polar events. What I mean, is that the climatic warming and cooling is centered on the polar latitudes and not in the tropics.
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How do you account for the lower snowline worldwide? Mountains everywhere, including the tropics, showed a snowline several thousand feet lower than today, I understand.
Did they really show such a lower snowline (glacier edge) and morraine lines?)
You’d have to look at the mid-latitude Andes I think- There are no other mountain ranges going north-south in the southern hemisphere that would get glacier ice like New York (low 40’s in latitude) and Chicago and the mid-Appalachians. Seems to me a worldwide Ice Age would require some glacier remnants on the east side of the much of Argentina, maybe as far north as Brazil.
But Africa?
Rockies?
Sierra Nevadas? I have never heard of glacier (ice age glacier obviously affecting those mountains. Comparisons in the classic books “always” discuss what affected the writers back in New York City. 8<)